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EUR/USD gains despite month-end flow talk
Italy Sept adjusted jobless rise to 10.8%
Troika Is Not Discussing A Haircut For Greece – Eurogroup
AUD/USD heading into strong offers
FRANCE DATA: Sept PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.9% y/y; Aug: y/y.
FRANCE DATA: Sept sa consumer spending on goods m/m,.
French Sept consumer spending +0.1%m/m, -0.3% y/y
Today’s orderboard
Month end flows
ECB’s Coeure: Can Withdraw Liquidity Quickly But No Plans Now
German September retail sales +1.5% m/m, -3.1% y/y
Germany September Retail Sales +1.5% M/M; Hit 11-Month High
GERMANY DATA: September real sa retail sales +1.5%…
Where’s Iron Ore going…?
European stocks look set to open very marginally easier
SNB reporting a consolidated profit of CHF 16.9 billion for the first three quarters of 2012
Italy Treasury Minister: Believe will see Italy return to growth from Q2 2013
Francois Hollande pushes for 160pc rise in beer taxes
Dull start to Europe….
Today’s option expiries

EUR/USD gains despite month-end flow talk

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 02:04 AM PDT

EUR/USD is up at 1.3000 having been as high as 1.3005, the pairing making pretty decent gains despite much market talk of negative month end flows.

It should be noted that the 4.00 London fix is the important fix for these flows, so it may be a little premature to rule them out.

Reports now have buy stops through both 1.3015 and 1.3020, take your pick.

Italy Sept adjusted jobless rise to 10.8%

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 02:01 AM PDT

Inline with forecasts but an increase from August’s revised 10.6%

Troika Is Not Discussing A Haircut For Greece – Eurogroup

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Troika is not discussing a new debt
restructuring plan for Greece, Thomas Wieser, President of the key
European Working Group (EWG), told German radio Deutschland Radio
Kultur on Wednesday.

“In none of the discussion rounds [with the Troika] was the word
‘haircut’ mentioned,” Wieser said. Media reports about a possible debt
restructuring are nothing more than mutually reinforcing press
speculation and “have nothing to do with the work of the Troika,” he
said.

The EWG, which meets in Brussels, is composed of senior finance
officials from Eurozone governments. Its main task is to prepare the
agenda for meetings of the Eurozone finance ministers, known as the
Eurogroup. That group is scheduled to hold a teleconference call to
discuss Greece starting at 1300 GMT today.

Wieser told the radio station that he would not exclude a new deal
with Greece to show a “more measured adjustment program,” given the
collapse of the country’s economy.

“It is possible that this will require additional liquidity.
However, based on all we have heard, it would not require additional
funds from the 16 member states [but] could be financed within the
framework for the current program,” Wieser said.

Still, he cautioned that talks between the Troika and Greece have
not been concluded yet. “They are close to the end, but as is well known
the last steps in these agreements are always the most difficult,”
Wieser said.

–Frankfurt newsroom, +49-69-720-142; jtreeck@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$CR$,MGX$$$,M$Y$$$]

AUD/USD heading into strong offers

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 01:21 AM PDT

Back up towards the earlier Asian session highs of 1.0392. The strong building approvals data which came out o/n has started to give some comfort to the RBA as the economy starts to recognize the recent rate cuts, but there’s apparently some heavy offers lined up ahead from 1.0390 through to 1.0410 to thwart the bulls, with EUR/AUD adding to the cause as the cross breaks back up through 1.2500.

Buys stops apparently lie just above 1.0410, ahead of more offers up at 1.0440/50 ( 1.0450 possible barrier) which also includes a 61.8% retracement of the mid Sept-early Oct fall around 1.0444.

AUD’s around 1.0387 with the cross at 1.2508

FRANCE DATA: Sept PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.9% y/y; Aug: y/y.

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:50 AM PDT

FRANCE DATA: Sept PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.9% y/y; Aug: +1.3% m/m, +2.8% y/y
– Manufacturing PPI +0.3% m/m, +2.4 y/y
– Oil product prices +0.1% m/m, +13.4% y/y
– Food and tobacco prices +0.9% m/m, +4.0% y/y
– Industry import prices -0.6% m/m, +2.3% y/y
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

FRANCE DATA: Sept sa consumer spending on goods m/m,.

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:50 AM PDT

FRANCE DATA: Sept sa consumer spending on goods +0.1% m/m, -0.3% y/y
– Above most analysts’ forecasts; MNI survey median forecast: flat m/m
– 3Q consumer spending +0.2% q/q; 2Q -0.2% q/q
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

French Sept consumer spending +0.1%m/m, -0.3% y/y

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:48 AM PDT

Up strongly from -0.8%m/m in August but forecasts were for +0.1% m/m , -0.2% y/y

Sept Producer prices +0.3%m/m, +2.9% y/y (above forecasts of +0.1%m/m, +2.2% y/y, but below August’s reading of +1.3%)

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:22 AM PDT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2980 up to 1.3010, expected buy stops just above through 1.3015. Bids 1.2920/30 sell stops below ahead of larger bids 1.2880/00 (sovereigns) sell stops through 1.2875

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6065/75, larger down at 1.6000/20, sell stops below and through 1.5975. Offers 1.6090/00 possible buy stops just above ahead of more offers 1.6120/40 (downtrend line resistance around 1.6120 from Sept 21 highs),

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8070/75, tech res/offers 0.8090/00 (0.8101- 200 day MA) likely buy stops just above, and more offers 0.8135/45. Bids 0.8040/450.8020/25 and 0.8000 /10 (cloud top 0.8010, 55 day MA 0.8004) and tech support 0.7968 (100 day MA)

USD/JPY: Bids 79.40/50, large bids 79.00/20 and large sell stops below through 78.95. Offers from 79.90/80.10 and above at 80.40/60, buy stops above both.

EUR/JPY: Bids 103.00/10 likely sell stops just below ahead of bids 102.20/30 and tech support at the 200 day MA 102.09), sell stops through 102.00 and 101.80. Offers 103.30/50 (tenkan line 103.38) and 103.80/00

AUD/JPY: Bids 82.40/50, sell stops through 82.30 ahead of tech supp 82.20/25 (200 day MA 82.20), sell stops through 82. Offers 82.90/00, buy stops up through 83.10 ahead of offers 83.50/60 (Aug 21 high 83.57)

AUD/USD: Strong offers 1.0390/00 (1.0395 daily cloud base) with buy stops through 1.0410. Further offers 1.0440/50 (61.8% of 14 Sept-8 Oct fall around 1.0444). Bids 1.0340/50 (200 day MA 1.0340), more 1.0325/35 and 1.0300/10 sell stops down through 1.0280 ahead of stronger bids 1.0230/50 and 1.0200/10 (barrier 1.0200) .

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2450/60 likely sell stops below ahead of tech support bids 1.2420/30 (Oct 2 lows) and 200 day MA at 1.2411. Offers 1.2500/10, 1.2540/50 and 1.2590/00

NZD/USD: Offers 0.8225/35 likely buy stops above ahead of tech res 0.8260/70 (Oct 5 high 0.8266). Bids 0.8200/10 (cloud top 0.8202), 0.8180/90 (38.2% retracement of 5-28 Sept rise around 0.8188) possible sell stops through 0.8160 (55 day MA 0.8163)

Month end flows

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:11 AM PDT

Just been reading some info from a US investment bank and the findings of their month-end portfolio rebalancing model.

The model points to positive flows for the US dollar and Swedish Krona

Points ot negative flows for euro and swissy and to a lesser extent kiwi.

Bear in mind month end portfolio rebalancing flows are only one factor, but there you have them.

UPDATE: Just been told UK clearer also calling for negative month end EUR/USD flows

ECB’s Coeure: Can Withdraw Liquidity Quickly But No Plans Now

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:10 AM PDT

OSAKA, Japan (MNI) – The European Central Bank is well equipped to
withdraw large amounts of liquidity from the financial markets quickly
if inflation risks arise but it has no plans to do so in the near
future, ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said Wednesday.

Coeure told a banking seminar here that the “very weak” European economy is
expected to “recover gradually” in 2013 but confronted by signs of
weaker growth in Asia and the U.S., “the Euro area can count only on its
own forces.”

Asked if he sees any inflationary or deflationary pressures emerging in the
region, Coeure said, “There is no danger as risks to price stability are
balanced … also because of monetary policy decisions taken by the ECB.”

Europe is not exposed to deflationary risks in the short term, he added.

The ECB’s mandate of ensuring price stability has not changed but its policy
tools have evolved to counter unprecedented financial crises, the ECB
policymaker said.

“If there is any sign that risks to price stability materialize, then we are
most likely to withdraw liquidity from our system, and that’s very easy,” he
said.

Asked what the central bank would do as a first step when it detects a sign of
price instability, and what it would do if that did not work, he replied, “If we
have to withdraw liquidity, we will come back to our usual way of tendering
liquidity, which is variable rate allotments, instead of fixed full lot
allotments.”

But he quickly added: “We have no plan to do it in the near future but at any
time we can do it.”

“If there is a need to withdraw large quantities of liquidity in a short time
span, we have an instrument that we’ve never used, that we said we could use,
which will consist of issuing debt certificates. That’s something that lots of
central banks do,” he said.

Coeure said the ECB does not formulate monetary policy “dominated by banking
system supervision.”

European banking system adjustments in the wake of the sovereign debt crisis are
only “half way” complete and money is not sufficiently flowing to businesses and
households from lenders in countries like Spain, he said.

He declined comment on developments in foreign exchange markets or how he
evaluates Japan’s forex intervention policy, but simply said, “the euro is
stable.”

Asked about the notion that if the single currency system fails, Europe will
fail, Coeure replied, “I agree.”

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-6860-4820 **

–email: msato@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]

German September retail sales +1.5% m/m, -3.1% y/y

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT

Compared to Reuter’s median forecasts of +0.3% m/m, -1.2% y/y.

Germany September Retail Sales +1.5% M/M; Hit 11-Month High

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT

Real, seasonally adjusted retail sales:

September: +1.5% m/m, -3.1% y/y

MNI survey median: +0.5% m/m, -1.2% y/y
MNI survey range: +0.3% to +0.5% m/m

August: +0.1% m/m, -1.1% y/y (revised from -1.2% y/y)

FRANKFURT (MNI) – German retail sales rose three times faster in
September than even the most optimistic analysts had projected, lifting
turnover to the highest level in nearly a year, the Federal Statistical
Office reported on Wednesday.

After a modest recovery in August, sales gained an additional 1.5%
on the month in real terms to their highest level since October, but
were still 3.1% lower on the year.

In nominal terms, turnover jumped 1.9% on the month to give an
annual decline of -0.7%.

Food, drink and tobacco sales, for which only annual figures are
available, were down 3.4% , while non-food sales were 2.9% lower.

Positive turnover in October lifted the retail PMI above 50 for the
first time since July, though the reading was still below the average
for the year to date.

Expectations of steady employment and low inflation, as well as
record-low borrowing costs, kept German households in a spending mood
this month, a GfK Group survey showed.

Recent labour market developments, however, could begin to weigh on
spending-propensity in the near term. The ranks of the unemployed
continued to trend upwards in October, while payroll jobs in September
fell for the first time since the start of 2010, the Federal Labour
Office reported on Tuesday.

Looking ahead, a European Commission survey showed hiring
expectations falling in all major sectors except retail in October,
while consumers’ jobless fears fell only slightly from September’s
28-month high.

Retailers already seem more pessimistic regarding the coming
months. An Ifo institute survey showed their business expectations
falling in October to their lowest level since February 2010, as order
books continued to erode.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49-69-720-142; email: twailoo@mni-news.com –

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MAGDS$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$,MTABLE]

GERMANY DATA: September real sa retail sales +1.5%…

Posted: 31 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT

GERMANY DATA: September real sa retail sales +1.5% m/m, unadj -3.1% y/y
– Germany September m/m retail sls above all fcsts (MNI median +0.5%)
– Germany August m/m retail sales revised down to +0.1% (+0.3%)
– Germany 3q sa retail sales -0.4% q/q, 2q +0.2%, 1q -0.7%)
– Germany September sales 3mma (July-September:June-August) +0.1%,
August -0.2%
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

Where’s Iron Ore going…?

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:39 PM PDT

David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, famous for his ‘shorts’, reckons Iron ore could plummet to $100 next year and has subsequently shorted the commodity.

He was speaking at a ‘closed’ investment symposium in Dallas yesterday.

Obviously feels Chinese industrial growth forecasts are over-estimated…

That might excite a few AUD/USD bears of which there are plenty!

More... Business Insider

European stocks look set to open very marginally easier

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:38 PM PDT

Financial bookies expect FTSE and CAC 40 to open down around -0.2%, DAX down around -0.1%.

SNB reporting a consolidated profit of CHF 16.9 billion for the first three quarters of 2012

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:25 PM PDT

Net result from the SNB’s foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 10.3 billion for the first three quarters of the year
For the first three quarters of 2012, the stabilisation fund is reporting a profit of USD 565 million

How’s that peg treating ya?

Italy Treasury Minister: Believe will see Italy return to growth from Q2 2013

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:18 PM PDT

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!

Francois Hollande pushes for 160pc rise in beer taxes

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:08 PM PDT

Mon Dieu!!!

And to think I was seriously considering moving to France

Dull start to Europe….

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 11:06 PM PDT

No change there, we really need something to happen but i have a feeling it’ll all be about NY opening today.

Month end, won’t help but there’s got to be some whippy action ahead in the equity markets . There’s a slew of European data out this morning and the Greece discussion by european FinMins in a conference call today will be closely monitored, so maybe, just maybe, we’ll start to see some movement again…

EUR/USD currently sits just under 1.2960 with offers up at 1.2980/00, bids in the 1.2920/30 zone with sell stops just below, ahead of more bids from sovereigns reported sub 1.2900.