Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

---

• BOE Data: Overseas Gilt Holdings Rise In Aug
• Update: BOE: M4 Growth Accelerates On BOE’s Favoured Measure
• Greece should be given more time…
• BOE: M4 Growth Accelerates On BOE’s Favoured Measure
• UK September manufacturing PMI 48.4
• AUD/USD holds firm despite some model selling
• GERMANY DATA: Aug machine orders -11%; Jul -2%; Jun..
• Italian jobless rate steadies at 10.7%
• Eurozone Final Mfg PMI rises to 46.1 (Flash 46.0)
• German Sept Final Mfg PMI rises to 47.4
• French Sept mfg PMI falls to 42.7 (flash 42.6)
• Italian September manufacturing PMI rises to 45.7
• Swiss September PMI falls to 43.6
• Troika Inspectors Resume Negotiations With Greek Government
• France Sep Nominal New Car Regs -18.3% y/y;Workday-Adj -10.1%
• Swiss retail sales rise real 5.9% in August
• Spain Sept Mfg PMI rises to 44.6
• Slow start but USD/JPY under some early pressure
• FRANCE DATA: Sep. nominal new car regs -18.3% y/y,…
• Today’s orderboard

BOE Data: Overseas Gilt Holdings Rise In Aug Posted: 01 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT –BOE: Overseas Gilt Holdings Rose by stg5.551bln m/m in Aug LONDON (MNI) – Overseas gilts holdings rose substantially in August, the second consecutive monthly increase, according to Bank of England data. Non-residents’ net purchases of gilts increased by Stg5.551 billion in August having risen by Stg9.358 billion in July, the BOE Bankstats figures showed. This followed five consecutive monthly declines in February through June. Non-residents’ holdings of T-bills were cut marginally, by Stg336 million in August after being lowered by Stg409 million in July. The increase in net gilt holdings came with the BOE pressing ahead with its quantitative easing programme, based on large scale gilt purchases, and with markets expecting QE to be extended again in November when the current QE tranche comes to an end. The BOE data also showed UK monetary and financial institutions sterling assets with the central bank rose by Stg10.385 billion in August, less than the Stg13.475 billion increase in July. –London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

Update: BOE: M4 Growth Accelerates On BOE’s Favoured Measure Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT -Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 0830 GMT -BOE Data: UK Aug house purchase approvals 47,665 vs 47,556 Jul -BOE: Aug M4 ex-IOFCs +0.5% m/m; +7.8% 1q/3m annualised.; +4.1% 4q/12m London (MNI) – A raft of Bank of England credit and money data for August showed some signs of recovery, with broad money growth on the central bank’s favoured measure, M4 ex-IOFCs, growing at its fastest pace since Q3 2007 and mortgage approvals also nudging higher. M4 ex-IOFCs, which excludes the economically irrelevant intra-financial sector transactions, rose by 0.5% on the month and was up 7.8% on a three monthly annualised basis, the fastest pace of growth seen since Q3 2007. Mortgage approvals edged up in August, to 47,665 from 47,556 in July and consumers again cut their unsecured credit. On a four quarter/12 monthly basis M4 ex-IOFCs was up 4.1% in August, compared to up 3.9% in July, the fastest growth since Q1 2009. Net consumer credit fell by Stg134 million in August having dropped by Stg234 million in July, the first time there were consecutive declines in net unsecured credit since December 2011 through February 2012. One downside to the data was that some bank lending rates rose in August, despite joint Treasury and BOE initiatives to try and drive them down. Although the Funding for Lending Scheme, which aims to ease credit conditions, became active in August some effective interest rates, that is rates paid by customers, picked up. The average rates on outstanding secured loans in August held steady at 3.37% but those on household unsecured loans rose to 7.74% from 7.7% in July. The latter figure was the highest since November 2008. On new business the average effective rate on secured loans rose to 3.84% from 3.82%, hitting its highest level since June 2011. -London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$$BE$,MABDS$]

Greece should be given more time… Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:42 AM PDT …says Merkel’s former finance minister and budget disciplinarian Peer Steinbruck. Speaking in Die Welt  he said that anyone pushing for Greece to exit the euro doesn’t know what they’re talking about  and “the political and economic shocks would be devastating” More.. FT Alphaville

BOE: M4 Growth Accelerates On BOE’s Favoured Measure Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT –BOE Data: UK Aug house purchase approvals 47,665 vs 47,556 Jul –BOE: Non-residents buy net stg5.551bn gilts in Aug –BOE: Aug M4 ex-IOFCs +0.5% m/m; +7.8% 1q/3m ann.; +4.1% 4q/12m London (MNI) – A raft of Bank of England credit and money data for August showed some signs of recovery, with broad money growth on the central bank’s favoured measure, M4 ex-IOFCs, growing at its fastest pace since Q3 2007 and mortgage approvals also nudging higher. M4 ex-IOFCs, which excludes the economically irrelevant intra-financial sector transactions, rose by 0.5% on the month and was up 7.8% on a three monthly annualised basis, the fastest pace of growth seen since Q3 2007. Mortgage approvals edged up in August, to 47,665 from 47,556 in July and consumer again cut their unsecured credit. On a four quarter/12 monthly basis M4 ex-IOFCs was up 4.1% in August, compared to up 3.9% in July, the fastest growth since Q1 2009. Net consumer credit fell by Stg134 million in August having dropped by Stg234 million in July, the first time there were consecutive declines in net unsecured credit since December 2011 through February 2012. Other BOE data showed that, despite the Funding for Lending Scheme, which aims to ease credit conditions, becoming active in August effective interest rates did not fall. The average rates on outstanding secured loans in August held steady at 3.37% while those on household unsecured loans rose to 7.74% from 7.7% in July. -London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 e-mail: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$$BE$,MABDS$]

UK September manufacturing PMI 48.4 Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:28 AM PDT Down from 49.6 in August and weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of 49.0. Meanwhile,  August mortgage approvals 47,665, little changed from 47,556 in July, but weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of 49,000. Mortgage lending -0.3 bln in Augist, weaker than Reuters’ median poll of +0.5 bln and lowest since December 2010. All in all disappointing stuff with the EUR/GBP cross trading presently at session high .7980

AUD/USD holds firm despite some model selling Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:24 AM PDT Recovering well after the  Asian session saw last week’s low revisited following the HSBC Chinese PMI, and sitting around 1.0366 after recent day’s highs of 1.0373. There are bids in place from 1.0325/35 with large sell stops now  through 1.0320 and 1.0300. Model sellers have been reported in the low 1.0360′s but the flow is currently being well absorbed . Offers  lie ahead in the 1.0400/10 region with likely buy stops just above

GERMANY DATA: Aug machine orders -11%; Jul -2%; Jun.. Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT GERMANY DATA: Aug machine orders -11%; Jul -2%; Jun -1%: VDMA –Aug domestic machine orders -18% y/y; foreign orders -6% –Jun-Aug total orders -4% y/y;domestic -12%; foreign 0% –See MNI Mainwire for details

Italian jobless rate steadies at 10.7% Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:03 AM PDT Unchanged from July . Analysts were looking for a read of 10.8%, but it’s  still at the highest level seen since 2004

Eurozone Final Mfg PMI rises to 46.1 (Flash 46.0) Posted: 01 Oct 2012 01:00 AM PDT Up from 45.1 in August Final Output index  rises 45.9 (Flash 45.5) from 44.4 in August, New orders at 43.5 (Flash 43.6) down slightly from 43.7 in August

German Sept Final Mfg PMI rises to 47.4 Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:53 AM PDT Flash reading was 47.3 and up from August final reading of 44.7 but still showing a shrinking  manufacturing sector for the 7th  consecutive month

French Sept mfg PMI falls to 42.7 (flash 42.6) Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:50 AM PDT Sharply down from a final August reading of 46.0 and  the lowest for 41 months New orders sub index plunges to 39.6 (flash 39.4) from an August final reading of  45.7

Italian September manufacturing PMI rises to 45.7 Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:46 AM PDT Up from 43.6 in August and quite a bit better than Reuters’ median forecast of 44.1,  Highest read since March. EUR/USD has tripped  buy stops through 1.2860 and been up to 1.2874 so far.

Swiss September PMI falls to 43.6 Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:34 AM PDT From 46.7 in August, and well below analysts forecasts of  47.5. Lowest reading since June 2009

Troika Inspectors Resume Negotiations With Greek Government Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT ATHENS (MNI) – Inspectors from the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF – the troika – have returned to Athens and are expected to begin a new round of meetings with Greek government officials on Monday. Their meeting with Finance Minister Giannis Stournaras is scheduled for 11:00 GMT/0700 ET. They will then hold a meeting with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras, scheduled for 1500 GMT/1100 ET. The troika is expected to stay at least one week in order to finalize E13.5 billion worth of measures meant to ensure that Greece will be able to cut its public deficit below 3% of GDP by 2014 – or by 2016 if Greece receives the two-year extension it is seeking on its fiscal consolidation program. So far, Greece has agreed with EU and IMF officials on E9.5 billion worth of measures. The rest are to be determined in the meetings that begin today, before the troika concludes its mission and drafts its eagerly anticipated report on the Greek economy. Based on that report, the Eurogroup of euro area finance ministers will decide whether the deeply-indebted country is eligible to receive a E31.5 billion tranche of bailout loan money. The Eurogroup will meet in Luxembourg on October 8, but it is doubtful the report will be finished by then. The Greek coalition government agreed Friday on a full E13.5 billion in measures, which include a new round of wage and pension cuts. But their agreement is subject to the troika’s endorsement. There is speculation that troika officials have already expressed reservations about certain measures to cut ministry budgets and local government spending, and that they are not happy about the Greek government’s reluctance to implement layoffs in the public sector. The Greek government is required by the constitution to submit a draft budget for 2013 to the parliament today. However, since negotiations with the troika officials have not been concluded, the budget will be subject to heavy revisions. –Athens bureau ; apapamiltiadou@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$Y$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,MT$$$$]

France Sep Nominal New Car Regs -18.3% y/y;Workday-Adj -10.1% Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:20 AM PDT PARIS (MNI) – French new car registrations totaled 136,859 in September, 18.3% below the volume of a year earlier in nominal terms but only 10.1% lower when adjusted for the fact that there were two fewer work days this September than the year before, the sector group CCFA said Monday. For the first nine months of the year, registrations were down 13.9% on the year, or 13.4% lower taking account of the extra work day in January-September of 2011 compared with this year. The Renault group was by far the hardest hit of the French carmakers in September, with a sharp 33.4% drop in nominal sales. Its lower-price Dacia models posted a 14.1% decline while Renault itself plummeted 35.8%. PSA Peugeot Citroen fared a lot better, though it still registered a drop of 5% on the month in nominal terms. The share of French carmakers in the domestic market declined slightly to 54.2% from 55.2% a year earlier. Registrations of foreign-made cars also slumped, with Italy’s Fiat group tumbling a particularly steep 38.4%. Among the non-French automakers, only Toyota and Hyundai posted increases in September. After dropping in June and stagnating in July, car purchases in France posted a 0.6% month-on-month gain in August, according to the latest data, published earlier this week by France’s national statistical institute, Insee. But the trend is still down. French consumers spent 1.2% less on cars in August of this year than they had 12 months earlier. French car makers expect sales to fall up to 13% this year, equivalent to 60,000 to 100,000 fewer registrations, according to the sector media group AutoK7. Inventories of unsold cars are piling up in factories and dealerships. Automobile manufacturers queried in Insee’s September business confidence survey said that while overall orders improved slightly, driven by higher domestic demand, they were still well below their long-term average. Foreign orders declined in September, they said. And they expected a sharp deterioration in their near-term production prospects. –Paris Newsroom, +331-42-71-55-40; bwolfson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$]

Swiss retail sales rise real 5.9% in August Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:18 AM PDT From a revised 2.9% y/y in July

Spain Sept Mfg PMI rises to 44.6 Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:15 AM PDT From 44.1 in August and the highest since February, but still the 17th consecutive month of contraction Output index rises to 44.0 from 41.7 in August

Slow start but USD/JPY under some early pressure Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:11 AM PDT The pair’s  drifted off in Asia from 78.03 highs, but latest round of selling from an antipodean name pushed the pair down to 77.80. There’s a raft of bids sitting from here down to 77.50 which is reportedly  back by semi-officials , but the pair is also being supported by some EUR/JPY demand as the cross pulls back up through 100.00. Offers in the cross start from 100.10 with larger up ahead of 100.50. USD’s currently around 77.88 with the EUR/JPY around 100.07

FRANCE DATA: Sep. nominal new car regs -18.3% y/y,… Posted: 01 Oct 2012 12:10 AM PDT FRANCE DATA: Sep. nominal new car regs -18.3% y/y, workday-adj -10.1% –Jan-Sep nominal new car regs -13.9% y/y; workday-adj -13.4%

Today’s orderboard Posted: 30 Sep 2012 11:25 PM PDT EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2850/60 possible buy stops through 1.2860 ahead of more offers 1.2890/00. Bids 1.2800/10 (1.2800 barrier)), sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2785/95 and 1.2750/60, with more sell stops below. GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6100/10, sell stops down through 1.6080 and more through 1.6060. Offers 1.6160/70 and 1.6200/10 EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.7940/45 and 0.7920/25 (trend line supp) ahead of tech support 0.7914- 55 day MA. Offers 0.7960/65, res at 0.7975/80 (38.2% retracement of July 22-Sept 14 rally 0.7977) and 0.8000/05 (50% of 5-14 Sept rise 0.8001) USD/JPY: Bids from 77.85 down to 77.50 from importers (and probably semi official towards 77.50) sell stops below. Offers 78.00/10, buy stops through 78.20 and 78.35 EUR/JPY: Bids 99.50/60 large sell stops below and through 99.30 ahead of tech support 98.90/00 (98.95- 50% retracement of July-Sep rally) and 100 day MA at 98.85. Offers100.10/20, 100.40/50 and 100.75 AUD/JPY: Bids 80.40/50 tech supp 80.00/15 (Sept 6 low 80.11) sell stops below. Tech res now at 80.67 (100 day MA) Offers 80.80/90 and 81.10/20, larger at 81.30/50. AUD/USD: Bids 1.0325/35 and 1.0300/10 ahead of tech supp 1.0290/95 (cloud base 1.0292) and fibo 76.4% retrac 1.0275. Offers from 1.0360/70 and 1.0400/10 EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2370/80, probable sell stops through 1.2350 ahead of more bids 1.2330/40. Tech lvl 200 day MA 1.2398. Offers 1.2415/25 likely buy stops just above ahead of offers 1.2450/60, larger up at 1.2490/00

You are subscribed to email updates from ForexLive To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610