Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

---

• Eurozone Aug trade balance +Eur 6.6 bln
• Eurozone Sept inflation +0.7% m/m, +2.6% y/y
• German ZEW economic sentiment -11.5 in October
• Spanish auction result: Spain sells Eur 4.86 bln of 12 and 18 mth bills
• UK Analysis: NS House Prices Remain Stable In August
• UK Analysis: Sep Output Price Inflation Up On Higher Petrol
• UK Analysis: Sep Inflation Dips On Lower Gas, Electricity
• UK DATA: Aug House Prices +0.1% m/m; +1.8% y/y…….
• UK DATA: Sep Producer Output Prices +0.5% m/m; +2.5%.
• UK DATA: Sep CPI +0.4% m/m; +2.2% y/y vs Aug +2.5%…
• UK September CPI +0.4% m/m, +2.2% y/y
• ECB’s Costa: Current economic problems are structural, not just cyclical
• Italian August world trade deficit narrows to Eur 598 mln
• Schaeuble: Need to take ‘bigger steps to fiscal union now’
• Spain Outlines Bailout Path
• EU’s Barnier: EU countries should exit the debt crisis together
• Howdy Dowdy!!!
• Dutch August retail sales rise 0.9% y/y
• Oh go on, please give me my Howdy Dowdy moment
• Finland’s Katainen: Finland rejects raising firewall size

Eurozone Aug trade balance +Eur 6.6 bln Posted: 16 Oct 2012 02:05 AM PDT Strong turnaround from a deficit of Eur -5.7 bln a year ago. August unadjusted Exports +10% y/y, Imports +1% y/y July balance revised down to Eur +14.7 Bln, from previous +15.bln

Eurozone Sept inflation +0.7% m/m, +2.6% y/y Posted: 16 Oct 2012 02:01 AM PDT Slightly below Reuters consensus of +0.8 and +2.7%

German ZEW economic sentiment -11.5 in October Posted: 16 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT Up from -18.2 in September and better than Reuter’s median forecast of -15.0. ZEW says: Rise shows that risks for German economy have somewhat diminished Diminished risks could well be explained by decreasing uncertainty on financial markets Almost half of respondents forecast economy to remain more or less same in next 6 months

Spanish auction result: Spain sells Eur 4.86 bln of 12 and 18 mth bills Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:44 AM PDT More than targeted  Eur 4.5 bln Sold Eur 3.4 Bln of 12 mth bills , yield 2.823% (from 2.835%), cover 2.71 (from 2.03) Sold Eur 1.46 bln of 18 mth bills, yield 3.022% (from 3.072%), cover 3.04 (from 3.56) Strong take up but 18 mth auction showing slightly worse  cover

UK Analysis: NS House Prices Remain Stable In August Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT -Aug House Prices +0.1% m/m; +1.8% y/y LONDON (MNI) – House prices remained broadly flat between July and August with inflation easing slightly to its lowest level since April, figures released by National Statistics showed Tuesday. House prices rose 0.1% on the month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and were up 1.8% on the year, down from 2% in July. Out of the nine UK regions five posted increases in inflation this month, while four showed falls. London prices rose the most over the past year, increasing by 6.3%, while prices in the South West fell 0.7% compared with a year earlier. -London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK Analysis: Sep Output Price Inflation Up On Higher Petrol Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT -Sep Producer Output Prices +0.5% m/m; +2.5% y/y -Sep Core Producer Output Prices +0.3% m/m; +1.2% y/y -Sep Input Prices -0.2% m/m; +1.2% y/y LONDON (MNI) – Output price inflation in September rose to its highest level in four months as prices of petroleum, food and chemical and pharmaceutical products increased over the month, figures released by National Statistics showed Tuesday. It is looking increasingly likely that output price inflation troughed in July having increased for the past two months, although it remains at a low level by historical standards. Moreover, core inflation, which excludes food beverages, tobacco and petroleum has remained at a 7 year low for the past three months. Output prices rose 0.5% on the month in September and were up 2.5% on the year, compared with 2.3% in August. The rise was above the median forecast from analysts for a rise of 0.3% on the month and 2.2% on the year. Core output prices were up 0.3% on the month and 1.2% on the year. Input prices fell 0.2% on the month in September following a sharp rise of 1.9% in August caused by a spike in crude oil prices. There were downward influences from imported parts and equipment, home produced food and other import products. These were offset by a rise in the price of fuels. Core input prices, which exclude food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum products, were unchanged on the month and down 1.3% on the year on a seasonally adjusted basis. –London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK Analysis: Sep Inflation Dips On Lower Gas, Electricity Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT -Sep CPI +0.4% m/m; +2.2% y/y vs Aug +2.5% y/y; LONDON (MNI) – Consumer price inflation hit its lowest level for nearly three years in September as increases in gas and electricity prices seen last year were not repeated this year, figures from National Statistics showed Tuesday. The fall in utility prices on the year, however, which cut inflation by 0.43 percentage point in September is likely to be shortlived with suppliers having just announced large increases in prices which will show up in the CPI figures over the next few months. A National Statistics spokesman said that the rises looked similar to last year when 0.45 percentage point was added to inflation. While the latest data for Q3 put CPI inflation at 2.41%, only slightly above the Bank of England’s latest forecast of 2.35%, the increase in gas and electricity prices threatens their Q4 forecast of 2.19%. Consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month in September, causing inflation to fall to 2.2% from 2.5% in August, the lowest since November 2009. This was in line with the median forecast from City economists. Partially offsetting the downward impact from utilities was an upward impact from transport where prices fell less this year than last, adding 0.12 percentage point to inflation. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco remained steady at 2.1% in September. In his opening statement to the August Inflation Report, BOE Governor Mervyn King said inflation was likely to be “around or a little below target for much of the forecast period” but he rejected the view further stimulus was needed now. “Towards the end of the forecast horizon the balance of risks to inflation around the 2% target is broadly balanced. That in itself does not suggest an urgent need for further action,” King said. -London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Aug House Prices +0.1% m/m; +1.8% y/y……. Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT UK DATA: Aug House Prices +0.1% m/m; +1.8% y/y ———————————————————————— House prices remained broadly flat between July and August with house price inflation easing slightly to its lowest level since April, figures released by National Statistics showed Tuesday. House prices rose 0.1% on the month in August on a seasonally adjusted basis and were up 1.8% on the year, down from 2% in July. Out of the nine UK regions five posted increases in inflation this month, while four showed falls. London prices rose the most over the past year, increasing by 6.3%, while prices in the South West fell 0.7% comapred with a year earlier.

UK DATA: Sep Producer Output Prices +0.5% m/m; +2.5%. Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT UK DATA: Sep Producer Output Prices +0.5% m/m; +2.5% y/y -Sep Core Producer Output Prices +0.3% m/m; +1.2% y/y -Sep Input Prices -0.2% m/m; +1.2% y/y ———————————————————————— Output price inflation in Sep rose to its highest level in 4 months as prices of petroleum, food and chemical and pharmaceutical products increased. It is looking increasingly likely that output price inflation troughed in July having increased for the past 2 months, although it remains at a low level by historical standards. Moreover, core inflation, which excludes food beverages, tobacco and petroleum has remained at a 7 year low for the past three months. Output prices rose 0.5% on the month in Sep and were up 2.5% on the year, compared with 2.3% in Aug. The rise was above the median forecast from analysts for a rise of 0.3% on the month and 2.2% on the year. Core output prices were up 0.3% on the month and 1.2% on the year.

UK DATA: Sep CPI +0.4% m/m; +2.2% y/y vs Aug +2.5%… Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT UK DATA: Sep CPI +0.4% m/m; +2.2% y/y vs Aug +2.5% y/y ———————————————————————— Consumer price inflation hit its lowest level for nearly three years in September as increases in gas and electricity prices seen last year were not repeated this year. The fall in utility prices on the year, however, which cut inflation by 0.43 percentage point in September is likely to be shortlived with suppliers having just announced large increases in prices which will show up in the CPI figures over the next few months. A National Statistics spokesman said that the rises looked similar to last year when 0.45 percentage point was added to inflation. While the latest data for Q3 put CPI inflation at 2.41%, only slightly above the Bank of England’s latest forecast of 2.35%, the increase in gas and electricity prices threatens the BOE’s Q4 forecast of 2.19%. Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, alcoholic beverages and tobacco remained steady at 2.1% in September.

UK September CPI +0.4% m/m, +2.2% y/y Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:31 AM PDT As expected. Lowest level in almost three years. UK September producer output prices +0.5% m/m, +2.5% y/y,  stronger than median forecasts +0.3%, +2.2% respectively. Input prices -0.2% m/m, -1.2% y/y, weaker than median forecasts +0.2%, -0.8% respectively.

ECB’s Costa: Current economic problems are structural, not just cyclical Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:27 AM PDT Calls for reindustrialization in Europe Euro zone must be integrated monetary market (not sure what he means there) Banking union is best way to unleash EU’s growth potential Banking union will help businesses plan growth Sees fragmentation of credit conditions in euro zone Banking union needed to break link between banks, sovereigns

Italian August world trade deficit narrows to Eur 598 mln Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:11 AM PDT From Eur 2.905 bln a year ago Italy’s EU trade moves to a surplus of  Eur 374 mln from a deficit of Eur 402 mln a year ago

Schaeuble: Need to take ‘bigger steps to fiscal union now’ Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:04 AM PDT Urges EU treaty change for euro area budget discipline Calls for EU powers to reject national budgets

Spain Outlines Bailout Path Posted: 16 Oct 2012 01:04 AM PDT More on the Spanish potential bailout request in the WSJ  (‘google’ above headline for full story) If you had trouble accessing the earlier post  at 03:30 GMT the full FT article  can  be viewed by ‘googling  the headline ‘ Spain prepares to make rescue request’

EU’s Barnier: EU countries should exit the debt crisis together Posted: 16 Oct 2012 12:48 AM PDT EU countries should avoid protectionist policies Wants bank supervision plan political accord by end-year (v unlikely) Basel 111 implementation timetable should be respected The Eu commissioner was speaking in Bucharest (Bloomberg)

Howdy Dowdy!!! Posted: 16 Oct 2012 12:38 AM PDT Thank you, I feel much betta now We’ve been as high as 1.3011. Next tech level 1.3013 (Pete’s fibbo level) North of there we have 1.3025  trendline resistance from September 17 high.

Dutch August retail sales rise 0.9% y/y Posted: 16 Oct 2012 12:33 AM PDT Sharply up after a revised fall of 3.9% in July

Oh go on, please give me my Howdy Dowdy moment Posted: 16 Oct 2012 12:22 AM PDT It’s the little things which make life worth living

Finland’s Katainen: Finland rejects raising firewall size Posted: 16 Oct 2012 12:20 AM PDT Existing funds need to be used effectively Bank union is the most concrete issue to proceed with Need to ensure countries keep market access Finland is pushing to avoid common bonds Starting point should be no joint borrowing Would consider a model that brought down Finnish yields Finland won’t share liability in government debt Cherishes EU unity, but sees obligation to euro and will seek ways to strengthen it Will seek a fair way of integration with national responsibility ( my way or the highway) Will not just ‘oppose everything’ … (really?) Main thing is quality of supervision Bank union delay not the main thing  Spain getting bank  recapitalization in other way ESM recapitalization, depends on establishing a single supervisor Bloomberg headlines More negativity from the  Finnish PM,  come on De Jager, ….cat got your tongue?

You are subscribed to email updates from ForexLive To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610