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Thursday, October 18, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Decision on next Greek aid tranche has been taken, Spiegel reports

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:53 AM PDT

SMMT: UK Car Production Falls In Sep; Hit By Weak EU Demand

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

LONDON (MNI) – UK vehicle manufacturing fell on the year in
September but remained sharply higher on a year-to-date measure, data
from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders shows.

Car output fell 5.8% in September, but was up 10.2% over the
year-to-date. The SMMT said that declining demand for cars and vans
across the major European markets impacted UK vehicle and engine
production in September.

Commenting on the data, Paul Everitt, SMMT Chief Executive said
“The strong demand for UK products outside Europe and the investment
committed by major vehicle manufacturers will secure future growth,
although the coming months will be challenging for companies at all
levels in the supply chain.”

-London bureau: +44 20 7862 7492; email: wwilkes@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

Norges Bank: 4Q Credit Standards To Tighten Slightly For Firms

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Credit standards for Norwegian households are
expected to remain “broadly unchanged” in the fourth quarter of this
year, while enterprises should see only “minor tightening”, the Norges
Bank reported on Thursday in its latest Bank Lending Survey report.

Household demand for credit should also remain “broadly unchanged,”
while demand for business loans is expected to decline overall in 4Q.

For the third quarter, the survey showed Norwegian banks tightening
credit standards “somewhat” for households, with standards for
first-home mortgages tightening more than overall loans.

Credit standards for enterprises was broadly unchanged, though
banks had expected some tightening, the central bank’s survey showed.

Household demand for credit declined slightly in the three months
to September, with slides noted especially for first-home mortgages and
home equity lines of credit, Norges Bank reported.

Conversely, corporate demand for credit was generally stable and
broadly as expected, except for the credit line utilisation rate, which
increased by less than forecast.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; e-mail: twailoo@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$$CR$,M$$EC$,MI$$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$]

Spanish auction result: Sold a total Eur 4.614 bln of 3,4 and 10 yr bonds

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:47 AM PDT

Sells Eur 1.637 bln of 2015, cover  2.61 (from 1.76), yield 3.227% (from 3.676%)

Sells Eur  1.464 bln of 2016, cover 2.55 (from 1.86), yield 3.977% (from 4.603%)

Sells Eur 1.513 bln of 2022, cover 1.88 (from 2.85), yield 5.458% (from 5.666%)

Above the max targeted amount of Eur 4.5 Bln, with improved yields

UK Analysis: Sep Retail Sales Rebound; Boosted By Clothing

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

-Sep Retail Sales 0.6% m/m; 2.5% y/y; median 0.4% m/m; 2.1% y/y
-Sep Retail Sales ex-fuel 0.6% m/m; 2.9% y/y; median 0.4% m/m; 2.5% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Retail sales rebounded in September, boosted by
clothing sales, according to new data from the Office for National
Statistics.

A National Statistics official said sales volumes were boosted by
strong sales of winter clothing ranges and school uniforms, with
purchases of the latter shifted back into September due to an unusually
late start to the autumn school term. Total retail sales were up 0.6% on
the month and rose 2.5% on the year, and excluding fuel they were also
0.6% higher on the month and up 2.9% on the year.

Clothing sales alone were up 2.0% on the month and contributed
0.2 percentage point to the monthly increase of 0.6%.

Total retail sales rose 1.0% in the three months through
September on the previous three months. The underlying trend in retail
sales growth has been fairly robust. Retail sales, however, only make up
35% of household consumption and household consumption growth has tended
to be more subdued.

Household goods store sales increased 1.1% on the month but fell
2.7% on a year ago and the other stores sector also saw a 1.1% rise on
the month to stand up 6.5% on a year ago.

Non-store retailing saw a 1.4% rise on the month and increased 9.5%
on a year ago. The National Statistics official said internet sales had
returned to their previous trend after the disruptions around the
Olympic.

Retail sales fell on the month in August as consumers chose to
watch the Olympics rather than shop, with sales falling a revised 0.1%
on the month, up from the earlier estimate of down 0.2% on the month.

There was evidence of higher retail inflation. The all retailing
implied price deflator increased 1.3% on the month and rose 0.7% on the
year, from up just 0.2% on the year in August.

-London bureau: +44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Sep Retail Sales 0.6% m/m; 2.5% y/y; median.

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

UK DATA: Sep Retail Sales 0.6% m/m; 2.5% y/y; median 0.4% m/m; 2.1% y/y
-Sep Retail Sales ex fuel 0.6% m/m; 2.9% y/y; median 0.4% m/m;3.2% y/y
————————————————————————
Retail sales rebounded in September, boosted by clothing sales. National
Statistics cited strong sales of winter clothing ranges and school
uniforms – with purchases of the latter shifted back into September due
to an unusually late start to the autumn school term. Clothing sales
alone were up 2.0% on the month and contributed 0.2 percentage point to
the monthly increase of 0.6%. Total retail sales were up 1.0% in the
three months on the previous three months. The recent underlying trend
in retail sales growth has been fairly robust. Retail sales, however,
only make up 35% of household consumption and household consumption
growth has been more subdued.

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield steady ahead of auction results

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:37 AM PDT

Up a paltry 2 bps at 5.49%.

Results of Spanish auctions out in couple of minutes.

Spain looking to raise between 3.5 and 4.5 bln euros in 3, 4 and 10 years.

EUR/USD relatively steady so far this morning, presently at 1.3105, with aforementioned buy orders down at 1.3080/90 having held the earlier sell-off.

UK September retail sales inc fuel +0.6% m/m +2.5% y/y

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:30 AM PDT

Stronger than Reuter’s median forecasts of +0.4%, +2.1% respectively.

Ex fuel +0.6% m/m, +2.9% y/y, stronger than Reuter’s median forecasts +0.4%, +2.4% respectively.

EU’s Rehn: Spain and Cyprus have ‘very serious imbalances’

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:14 AM PDT

  • France and Italy have ‘serious imbalances’
  • Belgium hasn’t accelerated fiscal consolidation
  • Eurozone must build banking union and move towards fiscal union
  • EU Commission scheduled to release paper on euro 2.o in November

Spanish banks bad loans 10.5% in August

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 01:05 AM PDT

Up from 9.9% in July :(

Even more Merkel: Proposes EU fund for specific projects

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 12:34 AM PDT

  • EU fund aimed at improving competitiveness
  • Shared liability is the ‘false way forward’
  • Financial Transaction Tax  (FTT) could go to a new EU fund
  • ‘Solidarity fund’ could be open to all EU member states
  • Can’t worry about a  a 2 tier Europe
  • Need to discuss how to give democratic legitimacy to decision in the Eurozone
  • Would be ‘fatal’ to lessen efforts after ECB proposal

Bloomberg reporting

Dutch October consumer confidence -32 pts

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 12:33 AM PDT

Down from -29 pts in September.

Meanwhile, September adj unemployment up to 6.6% from 6.5% in August.

Portugal coalition partner CDS says will vote on budget as to avoid political crisis

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 12:24 AM PDT

  • Portugal coalition partner says will work to improve budget

More Merkel: Up to Spain alone to decide whether it needs additional aid

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 12:20 AM PDT

  • Sees progress on unit labour costs in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain (yep, amazing how lack of jobs can drive down labour costs)
  • Reforms can’t stop at the ‘halfway mark’
  • ESM solidarity ‘goes hand in  hand’ with conditions
  • 10 States have signed fiscal treaty which can start in 2013
  • Further development of the euro area is indispensable
  • Closer financial cooperation is needed
  • ‘Strong financial  market regulation necessary’
  • Sees common banking supervisor, ECB to play a central role
  • Banking supervision as seen isn’t enough
  • EU needs power to intervene in national budgets
  • EU needs more common economic policies

EU commissioner Rehn: Europe’s economy to return to growth next year

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 12:18 AM PDT

  • Stagnation in the economy will last until around the end of 2012
  • Recovery will be slow and subdued
  • Rising levels of public debt are ‘very worrying’
  • Europe’s current crisis was ‘largely home made’
  • Belgium’s 2012 budget is ‘relatively sound’
  • Reformed stability and growth pact ‘is not stupid’

Bloomberg reporting

Germany’s Merkel: Nobel prize for the EU is well deserved

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 12:05 AM PDT

  • Nobel is all the more significant in times of crisis
  • Europe faces a dramatic situation
  • Euro’s a symbol of European prosperity
  • Problems at the root of the crisis can’t be resolved overnight
  • Can already  see signs that Eurozone is stabilizing
  • This summit won’t be the last to tackle the crisis
  • Greek PM Samaras will give an interim summary of recent talks with Troika
  • Corruption is still a major issue in Greece
  • Too many reforms are happening too slowly in Greece
  • Most of Greece’s problems have to be solved in Greece
  • Reiterates wants Greece to remain in the Eurozone
  • Greece has to keep to its commitments, convinced of  Samaras’s determination to carry out reforms
  • Decision on Spanish bailout rests with Spain, ESM rules will apply to any aid given
  • Sees progress being made on unit labour costs in Greece, Portugal, Ireland  and Spain

ECB Bank Supervisor Board Illegal Under Current Treaties: FT

Posted: 17 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The plan to create a joint Eurozone bank
supervisor within the European Central Bank is illegal,, according to a
legal opinion prepared for EU finance ministers, the Financial Times
reported on Thursday.

The opinion, from the European Council’s top legal advisor, finds
that the idea of housing a new centralized banking regulator within the
ECB goes “beyond the powers” allowed under current European Union
treaties to change governance rules at the central bank, the business
daily said.

The leval advisor said a treaty change would be required before a
bank supervisory board within the ECB could be given any formal
decision-making powers as the European Commission has proposed.

The FT also noted that non-Eurozone EU countries participating in
the bank supervisory regime would have no legal say in any decisions at
the ECB. Having such input is a principal demand of countries like
Sweden and Poland, the FT observed.

The newspaper noted that the legal opinion is likely to add to
Germany’s reluctance to rush into rapid implementation of the new
supervisory body. It will exacerbate Berlin’s concerns about
independence of ECB monetary policy, since it puts into question the
establishment of a separate decision-making process for bank
supervision. And it casts doubt on Germany’s demand for more clout in
supervision matters.

Some officials in the Eurozone, and at the European Commission, are
pushing to have the new supervisory body operational by the end of the
year, though that deadline is becoming increasingly unrealistic.
Germany, the Netherlands and some other “core” Eurozone countries argue
that it will take a lot longer to establish an effective centralized
regulator and that quality is more important than speed in setting it
up. Some non-EMU countries, including Sweden, have made the same
argument.

The creation of a joint European banking regulator is expected to
be one of the main topics at the summit of EU leaders that starts later
today in Brussels.

The legal opinion does allow for possible compromises, including
the establishment of a board to prepare draft supervision decisions, the
FT said. While final decisions would remain with the ECB, non-Eurozone
members would have full-voting rights at least in drafting advice.

The ECB could also choose to delegate tasks, thus making the
proposed board stronger, the FT continued, though it added that some
officials involved in the discussions “were unimpressed” with the idea
of voting rights on a committee that would be unable to make formal
decisions.

“Now it is clear they can’t have a say, fewer outs are likely to
join,” the FT quoted one official as saying.

The legal opinion also challenged the legality of member states
deciding how rules were applied concerning their banks, even under ECB
supervision, the FT added.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; e-mail: frankfurt@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$]

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 17 Oct 2012 11:15 PM PDT

EUR/USD:   Bids 1.3080/00 sell stops just below ahead of bids 1.3050/60 sell stops again through 1.3050 ahead of broken trend line support 1.3020/25. Offers 1.3140/50 (1.3146- 38.2% fibo retracement of 1.4940- 1.2042, 1.3150 barrier?)  and /tech res at 1.3170/75 (1.3173 Sep 23 high).

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6100/10, some weak stops through 1.6080 ahead of more bids 1.6060/70 (Tues low 1.6061). Offers 1.6135/45 (1.6142 50% fibo 1.6309/1.5976) likely buy stops above ahead of  tech res 1.6175/85 (61.8% 1.6182) and  1.6215/20 ( Oct 5 high of 1.6217)

EUR/GBP:  Tech level bids 0.8100/15 (0.8113 200 day MA) and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8060/70. Offers from 0.8130/40 larger up at 0.8155/65 (0.8165 June 10 high).

USD/JPY:  Bids 78.80/00 and 78.40/50 (Japanbanks, importers), sell stops below ahead of more bids 78.20/30 (semi-official). Offers from 79.20/30(exporters) buy stops just above ahead of  200 day MA(79.41) and offers up to 79.50 (Barrier). Buy stops above ahead of more offers 79.80.00. Further barrier up at 80.00

EUR/JPY:  Bids 103.50/60, 103.20/30 and 102.80/90. Offers 103.80/00 (Sep 17 high 103.86) buy stops just above. Tech res above at 104.75/80 (61.8% retracement of 111.44-94.12)

AUD/JPY: Tech pivot lvl 200 day MA 82.11. Bids 82.00/10, likely sell stops through 81.90 and 81.40. Offers 82.30/40 and 82.90/00 (20/19 Sept highs)

AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0380/00 (55 day MA 1.0391), buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 1.0435/45 (61.8% of 1.0443 – 1.0625-1.01450). Bids 1.0365/75 and 1.0340/50 (200 day MA 1.0345)

EUR/AUD:  Bids 12600/10 and tech supp 1.2580/90 Offers  1.2640/50 and tech res 1.2690/00

Roubini: Grexit still possible in 2013; Spain will need a full bailout

Posted: 17 Oct 2012 10:50 PM PDT

“The US will get downgraded, it’s a question of when”- Pimco

Posted: 17 Oct 2012 10:45 PM PDT

Pimco’s head of Global portfolio management Scott Mather said in Wellington today.

 ”It depends on what the end of the year looks like, but it could be fairly soon after that”

The congressional budget office has warned the US economy will fall into recession if $600 bln of govt spending cuts and tax increases talke place at the start of 2013. financial markets are complacent about whether the Whit House and Congress will reach agreement on deferring the so-called fiscal drag on the economy until later next year

Bloomberg reporting

 


at 5:13 PM

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