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Friday, October 19, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Update: UK Sep Borrowing Lower Compared To Year Ago

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT

-UK Sep PSNBX Stg12.809bn Vs Stg13.501bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep PSNB Stg10.732bn Vs Stg11.434bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep Year-To-Date PSNBX Ex-Royal Mail Up Stg2.6Bn On Year Ago
-Corrects expenditure change in final paragraph

LONDON (MNI) – UK borrowing came in below year ago levels in
September, and in the fiscal year-to-date it is now running very
close to where it was in the previous year.

Data issued by National Statistics Friday showed a marked
improvement in the public finances and suggest that despite the recent
economic weakness, the finances this fiscal year are set to be close to
where they were in the 2011-12 fiscal year.

Public sector net borrowing excluding financial interventions,
PSNBX, came in at stg12.809 billion in September, down from stg13.501
billion in the same month a year ago. The PSNBX outturn is the lowest
for a September since 2008.

This was better than analysts’ median forecast for a stg13.5
billion outturn.

In the six months of the fiscal year-to-date PSNBX, excluding the
transfer of the Royal Mail pension scheme which distorts the figures,
was just stg2.6 billion up on the same period a year ago, National
Statistics said. This amounts to a 4.2% increase in PSNBX on a year ago.

Analysts had highlighted the deterioration in the public finances
in the early months of this fiscal year compared to last but the
picture has improved in the two most recent monthly sets of data.

A National Statistics official said the improvements in the
September data were expenditure driven, mainly due to local government
expenditure.

Both total central government current receipts and total current
expenditure were up 3.7% on a year ago.

–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

Update: UK PRESS: BOE Miles: Economy Not As Good As Hoped

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

-Sees No Alarm Bells On Inflation
-Comments To Guardian Newspaper Hint He Will Push For More QE In Nov

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee dove David
Miles appears to be sticking with his view that the UK economy requires
more stimulus.

Speaking to The Guardian, Miles said, “The state of the economy is
not as good as I had hoped a year or so back, I must admit. The last 18
months have seen no significant growth”.

Miles also dismissed the concerns of other MPC members that
inflation could become an issue, saying wage deals have show no sign of
pick-up.

“I don’t hear many of the warning bells ringing,” he said. “If,
after a period when wage settlements have been very steady at 2%, they
moved up through 2.5%, 3%, 4% and companies were looking at 5% or 6%
increases, that would be a pretty strong warning sign. But that’s not
where we are.”

Given that absence of inflation pressure Miles went on to make
clear that he views more asset purchases as being necessary.

“If that’s where we are, and it looks likely that inflation will
undershoot, then that’s a reason to make monetary policy more
expansionary,” Miles said.

“The best guide to the most likely outcome [for inflation] is to be
had by focusing on domestic inflationary pressures. They have been
pretty weak and remain so.”

While many analysts expect the MPC to vote for more QE at the
November meeting, some uncertainty now surrounds the likely decision
given the doubts expressed by some members of the committee on the
effectiveness of further asset purchases in the minutes of the October
meeting published earlier this week.

–London newsroom 0044 20 7862 7492; email: dthomas@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]

UK PRESS: BOE Miles: State Of Econ Not As Good As Hoped Yr Ago

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

- Sees No Alarm Bells On Inflation
- Comments To Guardian Newspaper Hint He Will Push For More QE In Nov

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee dove David
Miles appears to be sticking with his view that the UK economy requires
more stimulus.

Speaking to The Guardian, Miles said, “The state of the economy is
not as good as I had hoped a year or so back, I must admit. The last 18
months have seen no significant growth”.

Miles also dismissed the concerns of other MPC members that
inflation could become an issue, saying wage deals have show no sign of
pick-up.

“I don’t hear many of the warning bells ringing,” he said. “If,
after a period when wage settlements have been very steady at 2%, they
moved up through 2.5%, 3%, 4% and companies were looking at 5% or 6%
increases, that would be a pretty strong warning sign. But that’s not
where we are.”

–London newsroom 0044 20 7862 7492; email: dthomas@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]

UK Analysis: Sep Borrowing Reduces On Year Ago

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

-UK Sep PSNB-X STG12.809bn Vs Stg13.501bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep PSNB Stg10.732bn Vs Stg11.434bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep Year-To-Date PSNBX Ex-Royal Mail Up STG2.6Bn On Year Ago

LONDON (MNI) – UK borrowing came in below year ago levels in
September, and in the fiscal year-to-date borrowing is now running very
close to where it was in the previous year.

Data issued by National Statistics Friday showed a marked
improvement in the public finances, and suggest that despite the recent
economic weakness the finances are set to be broadly similar to where
they were in the 2011-12 fiscal year.

Public sector net borrowing excluding financial interventions,
PSNBX, came in at stg12.809 billion in September, down from stg13.501
billion in the same month a year ago.

In the six months of the fiscal year-to-date PSNBX, excluding the
transfer of the Royal Mail pension scheme which distorts the figures,
was just stg2.6 billion up on the same period a year ago.

Analysts had highlighted the deterioration in the public finances
in the early months of this fiscal year compared to last, but the
picture has improved in the two most recently monthly sets of data.

A National Statistics official said the improvements in the
September data were expenditure driven, mainly due to local government
expenditure.

Both total expenditure and receipts were up 3.7% on the month.

–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Sep PSNB-X STG12.809bn Vs Stg13.501bn In….

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

UK DATA: Sep PSNB-X STG12.809bn Vs Stg13.501bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep PSNB Stg10.732bn Vs Stg11.434bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep CGNCR Stg22.050bn Vs Stg23.013bn In Sep 2011
-UK Sep Debt/GDP Ratio 67.9% Vs 63.6% In Sep 2011
-UK Sep Year-To-Date PSNBX Ex-Royal Mail Up Stg2.6Bn On Year Ago
-UK PSNB-X, PSNB Lowest For A September Since 2008
————————————————————————
UK borrowing came in below year ago levels in September, and in the
fiscal year-to-date borrowing is now running very close to where it was
in the previous year. Data issued by National Statistics Friday showed a
marked improvement in the public finances, and suggest that despite the
recent economic weakness the finances are set to be broadly similar to
where they were in the 2011-12 fiscal year. PSNB-X came in better than
analysts’ forecasts.

UK Sept PSNB falls to £10.732 bln

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:32 AM PDT

Below expectations of £11.4bln and last year’s £11.434 bln. (lowest since 2008)

Sept PSNCR £-623 mln from -£4.632 bln in Sept 2011

Cable’s steady around 1.6048

Looks a bit rosier for Osborne as his chances increase of meeting his budget deficit reduction target

ECB’s Nowotny: Ireland may be out of the crisis

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:20 AM PDT

  • Is confident about Portugal
  • Euro is secure and will stay
  • Contagion is still the most critical issue
  • A ‘Grexit’  would put Spain and Italy under further pressure
  • Sentiment has improved as a result of the ECB measures
  • Need to stabilize improvement in sentiment and have single bank supervision for the single european market
  • World 2013 growth including Europe will be below expectations
  • Recovery is weaker than hoped
  • May have to slow budget consolidation in order to avoid killing growth
  • Balancing growth and budget is difficult
  • Don’t see inflation as a problem on the monetary side
  • ECB would react immediately to any inflation risk
  • Current interest rates are appropriate
  • Low interest rates make gold ‘cheap’ for investors

Bloomberg reporting

Germany: Opposition SPD Against Direct Bank Recap By ESM

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:20 AM PDT

BERLIN (MNI) – The German government on Friday praised the
agreement in Brussels on a joint European banking supervision, but the
largest opposition party, the SPD, said it rejected the idea of direct
bank recapitalisation by the European Stability Mechanism, Europe’s
permanent bailout fund.

German Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter said in a speech in
the Bundestag, the lower house of parliament, that Chancellor Angela
Merkel had prevailed in Brussels by pushing the start of a joint banking
supervision further into 2013. Quality is more important than speed, he
said.

EU leaders on Thursday night retreated from a commitment made last
June to have a single supervisory system for Eurozone banks operational
by January 1, 2013. Instead, they said they would now aim to agree on
the legal framework for the plan by the end of this year and then
gradually implement it in 2013.

An operational banking supervision is a precondition for the ESM to
be able to directly recapitalise banks.

Carsten Schneider, the SPD’s parliamentary budget speaker, said in
a speech in the Bundestag that the Social Democrats will insist that the
ESM not be allowed to directly recapitalise banks.

The EU decision “means that European banks will have a direct
access to German taxpayers’ money,” Schneider criticized. “We don’t
want that the [European] Stability Mechanism, which was intended for
states, becomes a self-service outlet for banks.”

Thus, “we will insist that this decision will be corrected,” the
lawmaker said.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$]

ITALY DATA: August sa industrial orders +0.7% m/m;…

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

ITALY DATA: August sa industrial orders +0.7% m/m; unadjusted -9% y/y
–August SA indust domestic orders -0.6% m/m;unadjusted -17.5% y/y
–August SA indust foreign orders +2.5% m/m; unadjusted +2.9% y/y
–August SA industrial turnover +2.9% m/m; work day ajdusted -2.6% y/y

EMU DATA: August direct+portfolio outflow E3.4bn;….

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

EMU DATA: August direct+portfolio outflow E3.4bn; July inflow E18.2bn
– EMU August direct invest outflow E11.2bn; July outflow E7.2bn
– EMU August portfolio invest inflow E7.8bn; July inflow E25.4bn
– EMU August equity invest inflow E12.9bn; July outflow E4.6bn
– EMU August bond/note invest inflow E28.0bn; July inflow E3.6bn
– EMU August money mkt invest outflow E33.1bn; July inflow E26.4bn
– EMU August sa current acct +E8.8bn; July +E8.1bn(+E9.7bn)
– EMU August sa goods trade bal.+E10.2bn; July +E6.2bn(+E7.5bn)
– EMU August nsa current acct +E7.2bn; July +E14.3bn(+E15.9bn)
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

Eurozone August sa Current account balance Eur 8.8 bln

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:06 AM PDT

Up from Eur 8.1 bln in July

Unadjusted August C/A balance |Eur 7.2 bln from Eur 14.3 bln in July

Italian August sa industrial orders+0.7% m/m, -9.0% y/y (unadj)

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:02 AM PDT

Down sharply from +2.9% m/m in July

August sa Industry sales  rise +2.9% m/m (from +1.3% in July)

 

Half time at the Brussels summit

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 12:55 AM PDT

Large EUR/USD expiry today

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 12:23 AM PDT

Hearing that the 1.3050 strike that rolls off today at the NY cut is apparently in excess of Eur 1 billion, so we may see the pair fairly tightly range bound this morning around the level, particularly later towards the cut

Eat my pants…..!

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 12:18 AM PDT

Bjorn Borg’s apparently opening  his first underwear candy store in England…. Bloomberg

 

Talk of sovereign buying in EUR/USD

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 12:13 AM PDT

That would likely be around 1.3050 earlier, haven’t any specifics as yet but will let you know more as and when i get it.

EUR’s back up around 1.3067 after recent lows of  1.3046

BOJ’s Shirakawa: Overseas economies have moved somewhat deeper into deceleration phase

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 11:48 PM PDT

  • European economy is slowing gradually
  • China’s economy is experiencing a prolonged slowdown (debatable)
  • Japan’s economic growth is leveling off as exports and imports weaken, but will return to a moderate recovery
  • US economy is gradually improving
  • Worsening European debt crisis is causing turbulence in markets
  • Concerned that companies may delay investment due to slowdown
  • BOJ is pursuing powerful monetary easing
  • Need to achieve sustainable growth with price stability

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 11:37 PM PDT

EUR/USD:   Bids 1.3050/60 sell stops through 1.3045 ahead of broken trend line support 1.3020/25. and more bids 1.3000/10 with sell stops below.  Offers 1.3080/00 and 1.3140/50 (1.3146- 38.2% fibo retracement of 1.4940- 1.2042) . 1.3150  is  a barrier with stops above ahead of tech res at 1.3170/75 (1.3173 Sep 23 high).

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6000/10, stops through 1..5990. Offers 1.6055/65,1.6090/00 and 1.6135/45 (1.6142 50% fibo 1.6309/1.5976)

EUR/GBP:  Tech level/ bids 0.8100/15 (0.8111- 200 day MA) and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8060/70. Offers from 0.8140/50 ahead of barrier (0.8150), buy stops above through 0.8155. Tech res 0.8165/70 June highs, more offers 0.8190/00.

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.00/20, possible sell stops below ahead of bids 78.65/75 and further sell stops below. Offers from 79.40/50 (79.50 barrier, 200 day MA79.42, yesterday's high 79.47) Buy stops above ahead of more offers 79.80.00. Further barrier up at 80.00

EUR/JPY:  Bids 103.40/50 sell stops below ahead of more bids 103.20/30 and 102.80/90. Offers 103.70/ and 104.05/15 likely buy stops above. Tech res up at 104.75/80 (61.8% retracement of 111.44-94.12- 104.77)

AUD/JPY: Tech/bids 82.05/15 (200 day MA 82.13) and bids 81.80/90 sell stops through 81.80 and 81.40. Offers 82.40/50 and 82.90/00 (20/19 Sept highs)

AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0380 through to 1.0410 (55 day MA 1.0387), buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 1.0435/45 (61.8% of 1.0443 – 1.0625-1.01450). Bids 1.0325/45 (real money, 200 day MA 1.0345) and more 1.0300/10, sell stops though 1.0290

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2580/90 and 1.2520/30.  Offers 1.2640/50 and 1.2690/00

MNI Japan Survey: Sep Trade Balance, Sep CPI

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 11:20 PM PDT

– See Separate Tables For Details Of Individual Forecasts

TOKYO (MNI) – The following are the median forecasts for Japanese
economic data due in the coming week provided by economists surveyed by
MNI.

Hit by the global economic slowdown, Japan is expected to post a
trade deficit for the third straight month in September but the
shortfall, forecast at Y570.1 billion, is seen smaller than the Y755.9
billion recorded in August.

China’s economy expanded only 7.4% from a year earlier in the
July-September quarter, marking slowest growth since +6.6% in the first
quarter of 2009 at the height of the previous global slump.

In September exports are forecast to have fallen 10.0% on year,
which would be a fourth consecutive drop after -5.8% in August on lower
shipments of automobiles, ships and steel products.

Imports are expected to have risen 3.5% last month, which would be
the first increase in two months after -5.4% in August, led by lower
purchases of crude oil, mobile phones and liquefied natural gas.

Economists expect Japan’s trade deficit will total Y4.57 trillion
in fiscal 2012 and Y2.77 trillion in fiscal 2013 after a Y4.42 trillion
deficit in fiscal 2011, according to the latest monthly survey by the
Japan Center for Economic Research.

On the price front, national core CPI (excluding perishables) in
September is forecast to have slipped 0.2%, a fifth straight
year-on-year fall, but the pace of decline is seen slightly decelerating
from -0.3% in August due to higher electricity charges and other energy
costs.

Monday, Oct. 22, 0850 JST (2350 GMT Sunday): The Ministry of
Finance releases September trade data.

Forecast: A deficit worth Y570.1 billion, which would be a third
straight monthly deficit after a deficit of Y755.9 billion in August;
exports -10.0% y/y vs. -5.8% in August; imports +3.5% y/y vs. -5.4%.

Friday, Oct. 26, 0830 JST (2330 GMT Thursday): The Ministry of
Internal Affairs and Communications releases the consumer price index.

Forecast: September national core CPI -0.2% y/y, a fifth straight
y/y drop after -0.3% in August; October central Tokyo core CPI -0.5% y/y
vs. -0.4% in September.

skodama@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-6860-4823 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

GERMANY DATA: September PPI +0.3% m/m, +1.7% y/y;….

Posted: 18 Oct 2012 11:10 PM PDT

GERMANY DATA: September PPI +0.3% m/m, +1.7% y/y; August +1.6% y/y;July
+0.9%
– Germany September PPI matches MNI median m/m fcast
– Germany September PPI above MNI median y/y fcast (+1.6%)
– Germany September PPI ex-energy +0.3% m/m, +1.1% y/y; August +0.9%
y/y
– Germany September PPI ex-petroleum products +0.3% m/m, +1.2% y/y
– Germany September PPI energy +0.4% m/m, +3.1% y/y; August +1.3%/+3.2%
– Germany September PPI cap goods unch m/m, +1.0% y/y; August +1.1% y/y
– Germany September PPI cons goods +0.4% m/m, +2.4% y/y; August +2.2%
y/y
– Germany September PPI basic goods +0.4% m/m, +0.3% y/y;August -0.2%
y/y
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details


at 5:06 PM

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