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• Eurozone August PPI rises 2.7% y/y
• US Senate leaders are working on a plan to deal with the ‘fiscal cliff’ looming ion the new year.
• Rate Of Contraction In UK Construction Eases In Sep: CIPS
• Germany’s September New Passenger Car Regs -11% Y/Y: VDIK
• European stocks grabbing back lost ground
• Only in Switzerland…
• UK September Construction PMI rises to 49.5
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield falls 11 bps to 5.77%
• All this sovereign interference is getting on my nerves
• BIS buys EUR/USD
• EUR/USD trying to steady after Spanish jobless-induced swoon
• Spain’s September jobless rises 1.7% m/m
• AUD/USD finding a few friends down around 1.0300
• OECD’s Gurria: ECB Shld Engage in Bond Buys W/out ESM Program
• Today’s orderboard
• Who thinks…….
• UK Nationwide: Sep House Prices Slip Slightly On Month
• UK DATA: Nationwide Sep House Prices Down 0.4% m/m;..
• UK September Nationwide house prices -0.4% m/m, -1.4% y/y
• Polish protests

Eurozone August PPI rises 2.7% y/y Posted: 02 Oct 2012 02:05 AM PDT Above Reuters forecast of +2.6% from +1.8% in July

US Senate leaders are working on a plan to deal with the ‘fiscal cliff’ looming ion the new year. Posted: 02 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT The NY Times is  reporting a story that senators are looking to a agree on a deficit reduction  target of around $ 4 trillion over the next 10 years, which would include changes in social security, cuts in federal  programs. NYT’s Paul Krugman thinks the idea is madness  and would betray the electorate

Rate Of Contraction In UK Construction Eases In Sep: CIPS Posted: 02 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT -Sep CIPS PMI Construction Index 49.5 Vs 49.0 in Aug LONDON (MNI) – The UK construction sector contracted for the second month in a row in September although the pace of contraction eased, according to the CIPS/Markit PMI survey. The headline September CIPS construction index rose to 49.5 from an unrevised 49.0 in August, having posted a 50.9 reading back in July. The headline reading was just below analysts’ median forecast for a 49.8 outturn but the survey suggested the construction sector would continue to struggle in coming months, with new business exceptionally weak. Markit said the sector’s new business reading in September saw the second-sharpest fall since April 2009 while business confidence was running at its lowest levels since mid-2008. One brighter spot was that construction employment “was relatively resilient”, with staffing levels actually rising in September. The survey, however, highlighted the resurgence of inflation pressures in the UK, with the sector’s inflation rate hitting a six-month high. The survey “presents another bleak assessment of business conditions in the sector. The current sequence of falling new orders is now the longest seen for three years, reflecting shrinking underlying demand alongside delays in spending from both public and private sector sources,” Tim Moore, Senior Economist at Markit, said. The CIPS data show the construction sector close to flatlining in the third quarter but the official construction data have been far more volatile than the CIPS figures and there is no easy read across to the upcoming offical Q3 numbers. -London newsroom 0044-207-862-7491; email:drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

Germany’s September New Passenger Car Regs -11% Y/Y: VDIK Posted: 02 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT FRANKFURT (MNI) – New car registrations in Germany fell year-over-year in September and are down 1.8% year-to-date, the carmaker association VDIK reported Tuesday. The number of new passenger cars registered hit 250,000 in September, up 10.4% on the month but down 11% compared to the same period one year ago. Taking into account the two less working days in September this year, VDIK said registrations fell 2% year-over-year. In the first nine months of this year, 2.36 million cars were registered, down 1.8% from the same period a year earlier. The steady decline in car registrations over the course of this year mirrors the drop in the rate of economic growth seen in Germany, with many economists fearing the Eurozone’s largest economy could contract in the third quarter. Still, consumer spending has remained something of a bright spot over the year, bolstered by consumer surveys showing that households were prepared to spend money on big-ticket items despite their fears about the economic outlook. Spending on durable goods, excluding autos, has edged up 0.4% in real terms from January to August, according to retail sales figures. Private consumption also added 0.2 percentage point to overall GDP growth of 0.3% in 2Q, helping offset declines in investment. The GfK Group’s consumer climate indicator for September showed consumers’ willingness to spend continuing to hold at high levels. The EMU crisis has led many consumers to invest their money in “higher value purchases, such as real estate rather than saving it in the bank,” GfK said. German consumers also say they are likely to continue spending on major goods, according to the European Commission’s consumer survey. Its measure of major purchases over the next 12 months has remained above its long-run average throughout 2012. The positive consumer mood has been driven in large part by a robust employment market in Germany. But the fact that employment levels apparently peaked over the summer could cause consumer spending to start weakening in the winter. – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: ccermak@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,M$G$$$]

European stocks grabbing back lost ground Posted: 02 Oct 2012 01:56 AM PDT Eurostoxx 50 now back to flat on the day. Euro zone periphery govt bonds yields easier. BIS a buyer. All the above combining to help EUR/USD edge higher. Nothing too marked mind you (don’t want to get tooooo carried away) We’re up at 1.2915,  Sell orders seen clustered 1.2930/50, buy stops through 1.2960.

Only in Switzerland… Posted: 02 Oct 2012 01:46 AM PDT Could this work on humans i wonder..…… The Swiss never cease to surprise me with their innovations..

UK September Construction PMI rises to 49.5 Posted: 02 Oct 2012 01:31 AM PDT Up from 49.0 in August but below analysts forecasts of 49.8, and the 2nd consecutive month of contraction  in the construction industry ‘Markit’ economists expect further contraction into the year end  despite latest government attempts to boost the sector with  the announcement of loan guarantees to to build rented properties

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield falls 11 bps to 5.77% Posted: 02 Oct 2012 01:30 AM PDT Yipeeeeee!!! 2 year notes off 12 bps at 3.20% We don’t need no stinkin bailout EUR/USD jumpin up and down on the spot trying to keep warm. Presently at 1.2897.

All this sovereign interference is getting on my nerves Posted: 02 Oct 2012 12:54 AM PDT Everytime we look likely to have a little move, up pops some central bank, central bank conduit or sovereign wealth fund to slow the move. Makes for listless, frustrating, uninspired,  stop-start trade. I WILL NOT TOLERATE IT MUCH LONGER!!! EUR/USD sits at 1.2895 having popped briefly back over 1.2900 after BIS/Asian sovereign buyers turned up (muppets)

BIS buys EUR/USD Posted: 02 Oct 2012 12:31 AM PDT In recent trade, down in 1.2880/85 area. We’re now at 1.2895.

EUR/USD trying to steady after Spanish jobless-induced swoon Posted: 02 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT We’re at 1.2890 from session low 1.2880. Being told smallish Asian sovereign has been sighted buying off the lows. Below there buy orders (as mnetioned on orderboard) layered from 1.2880 down to 1.2850, sell stops through 1.2840.

Spain’s September jobless rises 1.7% m/m Posted: 02 Oct 2012 12:03 AM PDT Oops, but hardly a surprise ,  especially with the main holiday season done and dusted That’s another 79,645 out of work making the total 4.7 million EUR/USD’s not happy either off a  tad around 1.2890

AUD/USD finding a few friends down around 1.0300 Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:44 PM PDT Real money i’m told have been supporting the pair towards the lows around 1.0295 earlier, but there’s also the cloud base at 1.0292 to add some technical support ahead of fib retracement and Sept 7 lows around the 1.0270/75 level. Although perhaps some of the public hadn’t expected a cut today from the RBA, the market had actually priced in about 80% of the move Worth keeping an eye of a breakdown of 80.00 in AUD/JPY, and  a break up through 1.2550 in EUR/AUD, as triggers to a deeper correction in AUD/USD AUD’s presently sitting around 1.0308, with crosses around 80.46 and 1.2517

OECD’s Gurria: ECB Shld Engage in Bond Buys W/out ESM Program Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT FRANKFURT (MNI) – The European Central Bank should consider sovereign bond buys in peripheral Eurozone countries even without the conditionality of an ESM rescue program, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said in an interview published Tuesday with Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “The ECB should operate on the basis of objective criteria on the ground,” Gurria told the paper, arguing the central bank should have the flexibility to act if it sees that yields are rising and the conditions for interventions are right. If the central bank waits for an ESM rescue program to be approved, “this could lead to the ECB not being able to act fast enough to lower spreads,” Gurria said. The ECB has made applying for ESM aid a necessary condition for considering an intervention in a country’s bond market. Gurria also warned that seeking aid from the European Stability Mechanism could in itself lead to a country being cut off from financial markets, a reason he said Spain was holding off requesting a program. He suggested the ECB could instead engage in “small interventions at the margins” to help countries undertake fiscal reforms. Gurria said Italy and Spain were undertaking “brave and important reform projects every day.” Even if some of these were still in their infancy, “if we wait until the last minute to see if every last measure is enacted, it will be too late.” – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: ccermak@mni-news.com – [TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$,M$G$$$,M$$CR$]

Today’s orderboard Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:28 PM PDT EUR/USD: Offers from 1.2930/50 possible buy stops through 1.2960 ahead of stronger offers 1.2980/00. Bids from 1.2880 down to 1.2850 with sell stops through 1.2840 ahead of tech supp 200 day MA at 1.2823. More bids 1.2800./10 and further sell stops below. GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6130/40 and 1.6100/10 (M/E, real money), sell stops below and down through 1.6080. Offers 1.6165/75 and 1.6200/10 (UKClearers) EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.7940/45 and 0.7920/25 (trend line supp) ahead of tech support 0.7917- 55 day MA. Offers /Tech res and 0.8000/10 (50% of 5-14 Sept rise 0.8001), more offers 0.8030/35 and  0.8065/70 USD/JPY: Bids from 77.85 down to 77.50 from importers (and probably semi official towards 77.50) sell stops below through 77.40. Offers 78.00/10, trailing up to 78.50 but with buys stops mixed in through 78.20 and more above 78 50 EUR/JPY: Bids 100.50/60, and 100.00/10 and 99.80/90 sell stops below and through 99.60. Offers100.00/10, 100.40/50 and strong tech res 100.73 (200 day MA) AUD/JPY: Bids 80.20/30, some sell stops just below ahead of tech supp 80.11 Sept 6 low 80.11, larger sell stops below through 80.00. Tech res now at 80.68 (100 day MA) Offers 80.80/90 and 81.10/20, larger at 81.30/50. AUD/USD: Tech supp 1.0290/95 (cloud base 1.0292) likely sell stops below ahead of tech support 1.0270/75 (Sept 7 lows 1.0273, fibo 76.4% retracement 1.0275) ahead of 100 day MA at 1.0237 and Sep 6 lows of 1.0210/15. Offers/tech res 1.0340/45 (200 day MA) and offers 1.0360/70 and 1.0400/10 EUR/AUD Offers 1.2545/55 likely buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 1.2590/00. Bids 1.2460/70, 1.2430/40 and 1.2400/10, likely sell stops down through 200 day MA at 1.2394

Who thinks……. Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:14 PM PDT We’ll have broken out of the 1.2800-1.3000 EUR/USD stranglehold before US non-farm payrolls come round on Friday? Can you believe that, I came within 3 pips of making Perfect Pete my beetch   So near and yet so far, story of my life.

UK Nationwide: Sep House Prices Slip Slightly On Month Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:10 PM PDT -Sep House Prices Down 0.4% m/m; Fall 1.4% y/y LONDON (MNI) – House prices fell slightly in September after seeing a spike in August, falling 0.4% on the month, according to the latest House Price Index from Nationwide. The Nationwide data show moderate levels of house price deflation, with September prices down 1.4% on the year compared to down 0.7% in August and a sharper 2.6% drop in July. Analysts had expected some fall back from the August monthly spike, with the median forecast for a 0.2% drop on the month in September. The average UK house price stood at stg163,964 in September, up from the stg162,228 trough seen in January but below the 2012 peak of stg165,738 seen in June. The Nationwide data, showing modest price deflation on the year, contrasting with data from Land Registry which showed there was still modest house price inflation in England and Wales in August, with London property price gains far outstripping those in other regions. Overall, house price surveys for 2012 have shown monthly movements in both directions with, at worst, modest price deflation on the year. Commenting on the data, Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said that the Bank of England’s new Funding for Lending scheme could provide some support for house prices over the coming months, but warned that prices are likely to remain stagnant as the economy struggles to reach take-off speed. “Overall, we expect the UK economy to see a gradual recovery over the next twelve months, with house prices remaining relatively flat or declining only modestly over the same period,” he said. While prices are unlikely to rise significantly over the coming months, Gardner also said that the lack of supply of new housing stock would offer some support prices. He noted that in the four quarters through Q2 2012, the number of houses built in England was 118,000, 25% below the average rate in the five years before the onset of the financial crisis. –London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491; e-mail: wwilkes@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Nationwide Sep House Prices Down 0.4% m/m;.. Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:10 PM PDT UK DATA: Nationwide Sep House Prices Down 0.4% m/m; Fall 1.4% y/y ———————————————————————— House prices fell slightly in September after seeing a spike in August, falling 0.4% on the month, a little larger fall than analysts median forecast for a 0.2% drop. The Nationwide data show moderate levels of house price deflation, with September prices down 1.4% on the year compared to down 0.7% in August and a sharper 2.6% drop in July. UK house prices surveys, at worst, are showing slight deflation y/y and these data are in line with that.

UK September Nationwide house prices -0.4% m/m, -1.4% y/y Posted: 01 Oct 2012 11:01 PM PDT Weaker than Reuters’ median forecasts flat, -0.8% respectively.

Polish protests Posted: 01 Oct 2012 10:56 PM PDT Everybody’s doing it

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