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Saturday, October 20, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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ForexLive North American wrap: Stocks take a whoopin’

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 01:02 PM PDT

Crushing day in the stock market but FX took it rather well.

EUR/USD perked up to 1.3064 in early trading and was held up by a large 1.3050 option at the NY cut. Afterwards, the pair slid as low as 1.3012, bottoming minutes before Europe shut down.

Cable rebounded early from bids ahead of the European low but stalled ahead of offers at 1.6067. Stops were triggered below 1.6032 but a dip below 1.6000 encouraged a collective shrug.

AUD/USD fell below the 200-day moving average after breaking it earlier in the week but was surprisingly steadfast after bottoming at 1.0318 even as stocks continued to wilt.

USD/CAD was the move in North American trading. Canadian CPI figures emphasized the futility of the BOC’s hiking bias and this pair has been the most-sensitive to stocks all year. The gains all came in the morning but stalled ahead of the key 0.9750 level.

Gold fell to a six-week low of $1716. Oil down $2 to $90.09.

Today’s trading in stocks reminds me of something Gartman said: at the end of a bull market, the first thing that happens is that the generals are dragged out and shot. The generals are the leaders of the rally and with Google and Apple down 13% from their highs, you have to wonder.

Delay and Pray won’t work: ZeroHedge

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 12:03 PM PDT

US Corporate Bond Chatter: Fiery Demand For Supply Frenzied Wk

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 11:40 AM PDT

By Steven Levine

NEW YORK, Oct 19 (MNI) – The frenzied pace of fresh, investment-grade
corporate bond issuance that rattled the docket this week is expected to
continue, as the ultra-low U.S. interest rate landscape lures issuers, and
demand for yield remains insatiable.

While a small crowd of high credit quality corporate and sovereign debt
offerings surfaced Friday, a total of $37.25 billion of new bonds were sold so
far this week. This compared to estimates for a tally of around just $15
billion.

Demand recently for new investment-grade product “remains on fire,” noted
Ron Quigley, fixed income syndicate head at Mischler Financial. He noted that
opportunities for financing “are as good as they’ve ever been, and we don’t see
it slowing down anytime soon.”

Quigley cited for example that the cumulative order book for United Health
Group’s $2.5 billion of single-’A’ rated debt Wednesday was about $25 billion,
or ten-times oversubscribed.

“At the end of the day, we see no end in sight to what’s going on in the
primary markets,” he added, which “is all motivated by the low-rate environment”
– not to mention the continued voracious “demand on the part of investors who
need to put their money to work.”

While investment-grade corporate bond spreads Friday were mainly wider by
about 10 bps in the intraday New York trading session, newly issued deals topped
the most active list, according to MarketAxess data.

By midday, total estimated volume was last over $8.5 billion. The 10-year
U.S. Treasury note hit an intraday low yield of 1.762% after reaching a high
yield of 1.829% in overnight activity, according to one broker screen.

Among the most traded investment-grade corporate bonds:

Morgan Stanley’s 4.875% 10-year notes were last tighter by 5 basis points
from their initial price level Thursday at a spread of 305 bps more than U.S.
Treasuries of similar maturities;

Oracle’s 2.500% 10-year bonds were last 9 bps better than their initial
price level Thursday at a spread of 59 bps more than matched-maturity U.S.
government debt; and

United Health Group’s 0.850% 3-year notes were last weaker by 1 bp on the
day at a spread of 30 bps more than comparable U.S. Treasuries, but still
improved by 15 bps from their initial price level Wednesday.

Traders have said recently that demand for yield among bond investors has
also led some accounts to shift to riskier asset categories.

For example, some investors of U.S. Treasuries have been said to be
shifting some money Wednesday from U.S. government bonds to high grade corporate
debt, and to a lesser extent to corporate junk bonds.

At the same time, there is chatter in the market that investment-grade
corporate bond buyers have been moving down in credit quality in their clamor
for yield. They have been said to be diving recently into riskier assets such as
corporate junk bonds, certain consumer asset-backed securities and commercial
mortgage-backed securities.

For some, covered bonds present another investment option.

“Spreads have come in tight,” said Manish Kapoor, managing principal of
West Wheelock Capital, speaking Wednesday at IMN’s Fourth Annual Covered Bonds
Americas conference. There is “significant demand for covered bonds as an
alternate senior proxy for people to take on extra yield of around 20 bps to 30
bps,” he said. Kapoor’s portfolio has been generally focused on structured
products.

However, with respect to European covered bonds, Kapoor stressed that he
“would like to see more regulatory certainty with pending proposals” across the
region, as well as “some level of harmonization between regulators across
different jurisdictions.”

But on the supply front, new issuance of investment-grade corporate debt is
likely to continue its frenetic pace. More than $18.5 billion of new deals
priced on Thursday to a yield-hungry crowd of bond investors, outpacing most
Street projections for the week in a single day.

While consensus among many investment-grade corporate debt syndicate
managers for next week’s supply ranged from $15 billion to $20 billion, other
market sources said that the level could well be higher given the recent influx
of sales. Sources also speculated that the potential offerings will likely be
front-loaded, as the amount of pending U.S. economic data weighs more heavily in
the later part of the week.

Most issuers next week will also likely announce new bond deals with
10-year maturities. One manager said that while “the front end has money that
needs to be put to work, the sweet spot in the curve is still the 10-year.”

Investment-grade debt issuance Friday was comprised of four 10-year deals.
These included:

$2.25 billion of sovereign notes from the Republic of Slovenia in its
inaugural U.S. dollar bond sale. The private placement issuance sold the
issuance at a price to yield 5.70% versus initial price talk in the low 6.0%
area. The deal, rated ‘Baa2′ by Moody’s Investors Service and ‘A’ by Standard &
Poor’s, was jointly led by BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and J.P. Morgan.

Anadolu Efes priced $500 million of triple-’B’ rated, 10-year notes in a
private placement sale at 175 bps more than comparable U.S. Treasuries; North
American Development Bank priced $250 million of 10-year bonds at 65 bps more
than U.S. government bonds of similar maturities; and Texas Eastern Transmission
launched $500 million of ‘BBB’-rated, 10-year debt in a private placement at 105
bps more than U.S. Treasuries.

While U.S. corporate quarterly earnings season continues at full steam,
many domestic firms face their respective regulatory blackout periods, however
that has not hindered a swarm of overseas-based issuers from announcing new high
grade debt. Korea Expressway, Akbank, Sydney Airport, Xstrata Finance, PTT PCL
and Sberbank were among the firms that sold fresh debt offerings this week.

And a host of sovereigns could announce new bond sales as soon as next
week. Among the global names stacking up in the pipeline are Sweden, the
Republic of Chile, Uruguay, Morocco and Costa Rica.

In the agency bond market, Fannie Mae is scheduled Thursday, October 25 to
announce its Benchmark Note issuance. This is its second calendar slot this
month. On its previous October 16 calendar date, the agency reopened its 0.50%
Sept 2015 Benchmark Note for $1 billion via an Internet auction.

For additional supply offerings, see the full listing of deals on
the US$ Credit Supply Pipeline, an abbreviated list of which is appended below.

US$ CREDIT SUPPLY PIPELINE – October 19, 2012

WTD: 34,250
MTD: 72,100 MTD 2011: 23,350 YTD: 1,024,630

Investment-grade $250M+
Deals Announced/Launched(#)/Priced(*)/Pass(X)
Date $MM Issuer/CR/Descr Mat Yield Lead(s)
10/19 500 #Texas Eastern Transmission 10 T+105 JPM/RBC/RBS/
(Baa1/BBB+) 144A Reg S STRH
10/19 500 *Anadolu Efes (Baa3/BBB-) 10 T+175 BAML/HSBC/
144A Reg S JPM/RBS
10/19 250 *North American Development Ba 10 T+65 BAML/BNP
(Aaa/AA+)
10/19 2250 *Republic of Slovenia (Baa2/A) 10 5.70% BNP/DB/JPM
144A Reg S, T+389.7
10/18 600 *Bank of New York Mellon 3 T+33 BoNY/MS/RBS/UBS
(Aa3/A+) Fixed
10/18 400 *Bank of New York Mellon 3 3mL+23 BoNY/MS/RBS/UBS
(Aa3/A+) FRN
10/18 500 *Bank of New York Mellon 5 T+55 BoNY/MS/RBS/UBS
(Aa3/A+) Fixed
10/18 2000 *Sberbank (Baa1/BBB(F) 10 5.125% HSBC/JPM/SBK
T+331.7
10/18 2000 *Morgan Stanley (Baa2/BBB+) 10 T+310 MS
Subordinated notes
10/18 500 *PTT PCL (Baa1/BBB+) 10 T+160 BAR/C/DB/
144A Reg S, Thailand JPM
600 *PTT PCL (Baa1/BBB+) 30 T+160 BAR/C/DB/
10/18 144A Reg S, Thailand JPM
10/18 300 *RPM Intl (Baa3/BBB-) 10 T+165 RBS/WFS
101 CoC Put
10/18 2500 *Oracle Corp (A1/A+) 5 T+45 C/JPM/RBS/WFS
10/18 2500 *Oracle Corp (A1/A+) 10 T+68 C/JPM/RBS/WFS
10/18 1250 *Xstrata Finance (Baa2/BBB+) 3 T+140 BAR/JPM/MIZ/RBS

10/18 1750 *Xstrata Finance (Baa2/BBB+) 5 T+170 BAR/JPM/MIZ/RBS

10/18 1000 *Xstrata Finance (Baa2/BBB+) 10 T+220 BAR/JPM/MIZ/RBS

10/18 500 *Xstrata Finance (Baa2/BBB+) 30 T+235 BAR/JPM/MIZ/RBS

** MNI New York Bureau: 212-669-6430 **

–email: slevine@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MMUFE$,MNUAU$,M$U$$$,MC$$$$,MK$$$$,MGU$$$]

FX doesn’t care about the stock rout anymore

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 10:49 AM PDT

Not sure why FX has decoupled from the slide in US equities but EUR/USD seems pretty comfortable on the 1.3025 area. Small bids are seen in the 1.3000 area with more stops set below that level.

Stocks trade at their lows, with the S&P down almost 1.6%.

Irish FinMin: Merkel comments on legacy assets aimed at Spain, not us

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 10:28 AM PDT

  • Future meetings will work out if bank toxic asset transfers are retroactive or not

Merkel wants Spain to retain responsibility for bad asset accumulated in the past….

Best trade this week: AUD/CAD long

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 10:17 AM PDT

Hard to believe that the commodity cousins diverged so much this week but AUD was the best performing major and CAD was the worst (followed by JPY).

AUD/CAD gained every day this week and is above the 55-day moving average for the first time since August.

The rally might not be over. The weekly chart is a three-candle reversal and shows that the area around 0.99 has been a springboard for large gains. The past four times AUD/CAD has fallen below parity, the resulting rallies exceeded 1.05 before any significant correction.

The September high of 1.0269 is the key level to watch, followed by the 100-day MA at 1.0292.

Oil nears $90

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 09:28 AM PDT

Tough to be an oil trader.

There have been four sizable whipsaws this week and WTI is nearing the lows of the week.

Merkel: Euro was the right decision

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 09:24 AM PDT

  • Euro has made European Union irreversible
  • Good Europeans help others to bring in reforms
  • Banking supervision pointless if not done correctly
  • Bank recapitalizations  possible only once bank supervision in place

Speaking to the CSU party conference.

US BudgetWeek: Obama, Romney Sharpen Fiscal Disputes In Debate

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 09:20 AM PDT

–Obama and Romney Exchange Withering Attacks On Budget Issues
–Obama Hammers Romney For ‘Sketchy’ Program On Tax Cuts, Deficits
–Romney Scorches Obama For String of $1 Trillion Annual Budget Deficits

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Fiscal policy returned to center stage in this
week’s presidential debate, with President Obama ridiculing Republican
challenger Mitt Romney for a “sketchy” fiscal policy that
calls for deep additional tax cuts with no plausible plan for paying for
them.

Romney returned fiscal fire by hammering Obama for presiding over a
string of trillion-dollar annual deficits, thus falling fall short of
his promise in 2008 to cut budget deficits in half during his first
term.

During the Tuesday night debate in New York, Obama argued that
Romney’s call for 20% across-the-board tax cuts would cost $5 trillion
over a decade. He added that Romney is also seeking $2 trillion in
additional defense spending over a decade.

“That’s $7 trillion. He also wants to continue the Bush tax cuts
for the wealthiest Americans. That another trillion dollars. That’s 8
trillion,” Obama said.

“That’s before we even get to the deficit we already have,” Obama
said, adding “nobody who’s looked at it that’s serious actually believes
it adds up.”

Romney ridiculed Obama’s record of economic leadership, saying
there is no plausible reason to believe it would improve in a second
term.

“I can tell you that if you elect President Obama, you know what
you’re going to get. You’re going to get a repeat of the last four
years. We just can’t afford four more years like the last four years,”
he said.

“We’ve gone from $10 trillion of national debt to $16 trillion of
national debt. If the president were re-elected, we’d go to almost $20
trillion of national debt. This puts us on a road to Greece,” he added.

Romney insisted that his experience in the business world would
allow him to push budget reforms. “I know what it takes to balance
budgets. I’ve done it my entire life,” he said.

In another fiscal matter, The Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget said comprehensive tax reform which lowers tax rates and broadens
the tax base can also reduce the budget deficit.

“Combining rate reductions with substantial cuts to tax preferences
has the potential to not only help address our growing debt, but also to
reduce distortions and promote robust economic growth,” it said.

It added: “In any plan, the main priority of tax reform should be
to help address our growing debt.”

The Committee on a Responsible Federal Budget report also said
those working on tax reform should be aware of the “important and
difficult trade-offs involved between tax expenditure reduction, rate
reduction and deficit reduction. Identifying enough revenue to reduce
both deficits and rates will require bold thinking and tough choices.”

Finally, a Congressional Research Service report said the federal
spending on 83 programs designed for low income people or limited income
people cost $746 billion in the 2011 fiscal year.

These programs include Medicaid, the Low Income Energy Assistance
Program, Pell Grants and the Ryan White HIV/AIDS program.

The report was requested by Sen. Jeff Sessions, the ranking
Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, who said in a statement that
these 83 programs should be viewed as “welfare programs” and that when
$283 billion in state funds for these programs is also calculated the
overall cost of the programs is more than $1 trillion.

“These astounding figures demonstrate that the United States spends
more on federal welfare than any other program in the federal budget,”
Sessions said in a statement.

** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

Russian economy slows

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 09:08 AM PDT

September GDP 2.5% y/y compared to 2.8% in August.

Russia is one of the very few countries that has hiked interest rates recently. I suspect that’s the end of that.

Another leg lower for risk as stocks extend losses

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:59 AM PDT

EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, commodity currencies, gold…they are all in retreat as stocks take a heavy hit following a sting of weak earnings reports over the last two sessions.

Stops in EUR/USD are being hit at the moment and more are likely if we slip below 1.3000 where the broken trendline which helped propel EUR/USD toward a retest of the range tops earlier this week comes back into play.

Cable breaks 1.6000

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:56 AM PDT

The magnetic 1.60 level has given way GBP/USD.

The main level to watch is last week’s low of 1.5976 but stops are said to lurk below 1.5990.

Next Week/US: Housing, FOMC, Q3 GDP, Durables

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:40 AM PDT

By Kasra Kangarloo

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Another row of housing data and the next meeting
of the Federal Open Market Committee will be the primary economic news
next week.

Housing data will likely see greater relevance among next week’s
headlines following the surprise 15% surge in housing starts over the
month of September. The news came as a surprise to analysts and markets
alike, and could mark the official start of the real “housing market
recovery.”

The August FHFA house price index and the September new home sales
index will both be released Wednesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and September
pending home sales will be released Thursday at 10:00 a.m. ET.

Prices are another bright spot in the “real recovery” story, as the
market has finally started to show some traction due to a dwindling
supply of homes for sale.

The FOMC will also meet again next week, though there are likely to
be few fireworks following the significant change in policy at the last
meeting. The committee has now committed itself to an open-ended
purchase program contingent on the unemployment rate, and that’s
unlikely to change for now.

The FOMC statement will be released Wednesday at approximately 2:15
p.m. ET.

The advanced report for third quarter GDP, to be released Friday at
8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show growth of just under 2.0%. Even
meeting expectations would likely come as a relief to markets, after the
third estimate of the last quarter’s figure showed a surprisingly low
1.3% growth rate.

September durable goods orders, to be released Thursday at 8:30
a.m. ET, are expected to show modest gains in core figures, which
exclude transportation and defense. Headline orders are expected to
surge.

Manufacturing has lately hovered at an inflection point, with the
Institute for Supply Management’s monthly index, orders and exports all
pointing to a possible slowdown in the industry. It’s not yet
definitive, however, though higher gas prices could pose problems down
the line.

The University of Michigan will also release its final October
consumer sentiment report on Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET, and will be worth
watching after the surprise surge in the preliminary release.

Consumer confidence, along with sub-8.0% unemployment and better
housing data, have given the economic recovery some real teeth. The
question, as always, is whether consumption and further job gains will
follow.

Initial jobless claims are expected to return to a more stable
range of 370,000 after the wild swings in the last two weeks, which MNI
noted were due to some technicalities in state reporting.

Other data to be released over the week include the October Kansas
City Federal Reserve manufacturing activity index on Thursday at 11:00
a.m. ET, the October Richmond Federal Reserve manufacturing index on
Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET, the October Chicago Federal Reserve national
activity index on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Markit preliminary
purchasing managers index for October on Wednesday at 8:58 a.m. ET, and
the Mortgage Bankers Association’s mortgage applications index on
Wednesday at 7:00 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve speakers over the week will be limited in advance
of the FOMC meeting, though Cleveland Federal Reserve president Sandra
Pianalto will speak on payment systems in Chicago on Monday at 1:30 p.m.
ET.

– Kasra Kangarloo is a reporter for Need to Know News

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$$FI$,M$U$$$,MAUDS$]

European equity close: Rough finish but let’s keep it in perspective

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:33 AM PDT

  • UK FTSE -0.4%
  • German DAX -1.0%
  • French CAC -1.1%
  • Spain IBEX -2.4%
  • Italy MIB -2.0%

German, French and UK stocks were up for the first four days this week so some give-back is no surprise and nothing to get worked up about. Solid weekly gains across the board.

Another Spanish region rattles the tin-cup

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:32 AM PDT

  • Asturias requests EUR 262 mln

Second region today…

Regional bailout fund almost tapped out.

Gold sinks to one month low

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:30 AM PDT

Quick trip down to $1726 for gold.

There is support at $1717/20 which is the convergence of the late-September low and the 38.2% retracement of the Aug-Sept rally.

Berlusconi facing the music today

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 08:12 AM PDT

Berlusconi is on trail today in Milan and denying that any sex parties ever occurred at his villa.

"I can rule out that there have ever been scenes of a sexual nature," the 76-year-old Berlusconi, wearing a dark blue suit, told judges as he addressed the packed Milan courtroom for the first time.

As bad as things are in Europe, at least that egomaniac isn’t in charge any more.

Where would Friday be without this song?

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 07:42 AM PDT

Just another day of the week.

Samaras: Greece Needs Loan Tranche; To Run Out Of Cash Nov 16

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 07:30 AM PDT

–Says Lenders Must Agree On Troika Debt Report But Differences Remain

By Angelika Papamiltiadou

BRUSSELS (MNI) – Greece will run out of money in mid-November and
needs to receive a E31.5 billion loan disbursement from its bailout
package as soon as possible, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said
Friday.

“On the 16th of November the country will run out of cash. We would
like to receive the loan tranche immediately after the release of the
troika report,” Samaras told reporters here after the EU summit,
referring to an eagerly-anticipated analysis by Greece’s official
creditor group, comprised of officials from the European Commission,
European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund. “We expect this
to happen by the middle or end of November,” Samaras added.

Samaras said his government is implementing the measures and
previously agreed commitments that its creditors require. But the
lenders still do not have a unified view of how to address a number of
key issues: the extra time Greece is requesting to meet its fiscal
targets, the funding gap that such an extension will produce, and an
upcoming report on the sustainability of the country’s sovereign debt.

“All three are linked and there is still a difference of opinion,”
Samaras said. The disagreement “is okay, as long as it doesn’t happen at
our expense.”

Commenting on the sentiment inside the EU summit meeting Thursday
and Friday – his first – Samaras expressed satisfaction that all the
leaders had signalled their solidarity and their confidence in Greece’s
recovery and reform efforts.

“Sentiment is changing and you can see it in the [EU summit]
communique on Greece,” he said. “It was a very positive statement. We
can benefit from the decisions on bank recapitalization at the EU level,
since that will allow us to write off the money spent [on Greek banks]
from the [government's] outstanding debt figure at some point.”

However, in direct contradiction of this point, Germany’s
Chancellor Angela Merkel said Friday that there will be no retroactive
bank recapitalization by Europe’s new rescue fund, the European
Stability Mechanism.

Asked by MNI to comment on Merkel’s assertion, a top Greek Finance
Ministry official predicted that, “Germany will come around in the end.”

The EU stance towards Greece “has changed significantly,” Samaras
said.

He added: “I want to address all those speaking about Greece’s exit
from the Eurozone to say that this is no longer possible. But I have
highlighted to my counterparts the problems we are facing from rising
unemployment, the liquidity shortage and the ongoing recession.”

Samaras argued that economic growth needs to return to Greece, and
he said he is lobbying his European counterparts so that the criteria
for the allocation of EU funds are changed to fit Greece’s current
needs.

“I explained to them that Greek society has reached its limits.
Liquidity which is the blood of the economy, is now zero. Unemployment
among the youth has reached a nightmare scenario. This is not Europe!”
he exclaimed. “This is how extremists rise.”

Samaras said he fully realized that the new austerity package “is
very tough.” But “it is the last one,” he stressed.

“I won’t be satisfied until we return to a growth path,” the Greek
premier said. “Even [European Commission President Jose Barroso, after
my speech last night, said that Greece has reached the limits of fiscal
discipline."

Samaras appeared satisfied with the stance of French president
Francois Hollande during the Summit, saying that Hollande's input had
helped shape a more positive communique on Greece. He noted that
Hollande will visit Athens soon, as will Italian Prime Minister Mario
Monti.

Asked how the question of Greece's debt sustainability will be
resolved, Samaras declined to answer. Many of Greece's official
creditors believe the current target of 120% of GDP by 2020 - a line in
the sand for the IMF - is unattainable. How that dilemma is addressed
will be a key aspect of the troika's upcoming Debt Sustainability
Assessment.

"Allow me not to say anything else about it at this stage" the
Greek premier said.

--Brussels newsroom, apapamilitadou@marketnews.com; +324-754-38314

[TOPICS: M$Y$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,MT$$$$]

Aussie sinking

Posted: 19 Oct 2012 07:17 AM PDT

AUD/USD now down 30 pips on the day to 1.0336.

Light demand at 1.0320 with solid bids at 1.0300.

Looks like option demand was holding up risk trades through the top of the hour.

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