Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Will someone go turn off that bloody magnet!!
Moody’s: Lack Bank Union Progress Cred Negative For Weaker EZ
EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Oct 22 to 26
Germany Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data Fcasts Oct 22 to 26
France Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Oct 22 to 26
Europe, Moore’s Law and Murphy’s Law and Milken
Japan’s Vice FinMin : Too early to say size, contents of economic stimulus
S&P: Japan’s deficits to remain high for several years
More Mersch: Talk of further Greek debt restructuring not helpful now
ECB’s Mersch: Must avoid negative side effects of special measures – Document
Plan to ban money fund bailouts
Update: BOJ: 8 of 9 Regions Cut Econ Views; Recovery Pausing
Germany likely posted surprise growth in Q3: FinMin report
BOJ downgrades 8/9 regions in it’s latest quarterly report
Greek PM Samaras to visit German State of Bavaria
Japan Sept Department Store Sales -0.2% Y/Y Vs Aug -1.0%
Today’s orderboard
BOJ: 8 of 9 Japan Regions Cut Econ Views; Recovery Pausing
C’mon everybody, let’s start the week with a new EUR/USD poll!!!
Repeat: Germany’s Fin Min: Tax Revenue Growth Slowed In Sept

Will someone go turn off that bloody magnet!!

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:58 AM PDT

Thankyou!!

From European session low 1.3024 we’re back up at 1.3042.

Much talk of sizeable 1.3050 vanilla option expiry later today. Little talk of anything else. Happy Dayz

Only another three hours to go

Moody’s: Lack Bank Union Progress Cred Negative For Weaker EZ

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

–Moody’s – ‘Dissonance’ On Bank Union Will Undermine Creditworthiness

LONDON (MNI) – Lack of progress at Friday’s EU Summit on a proposed
EU banking union is a credit negative for weaker members of the euro
zone, writes Moody’s this morning.

At the meeting, the leaders committed only to agreeing the
“legislative framework” for the proposal before the end of 2012.

“However, stark disagreements were apparent in many officials’
post-summit announcements regarding the design, desirability, and
implications of this potential mechanism”, Moody’s noted.

“The continuing dissonance among EU leaders on a ‘banking union’
will continue to undermine sovereign creditworthiness within the euro
area and of stressed countries in particular”.

Moody’s points out that the banking union “is an important part
of a wider suite of planned and proposed changes aimed at strengthening
the euro area regulatory framework”.

“In post-summit interviews, officials from Germany, Spain, France
and Italy offered conflicting views about when the single supervisor
would be deemed ‘effective’ and therefore allow lending from the
European Stability Mechanism (ESM) directly to banks”.

Moody’s says this lack of clarity makes it unlikely that the ESM
will assume responsibility for legacy assets, limiting Spain’s chances
of preventing banking sector recapitalisation needs from affecting its
sovereign balance sheet and diminishing the prospect that Ireland can
expect any relief from its bank support-induced sovereign indebtedness.

Activation of the ESM’s direct bank recapitalisation plan seems
unlikely before the German elections of September 2013, Moody’s says.

–London Bureau; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com; tel: +0442078627492

[TOPICS: M$$EC$,M$X$$$]

EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Oct 22 to 26

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

PMI (flash) M3 Money Supply
– October – – September -
mfg svc %yoy 3mma (yoy)

Median Forecast 46.5 46.4 3.0 3.0
High forecast 47.5 47.5 3.4 3.3
Low forecast 45.5 45.5 2.2 2.7
Previous period 46.1 46.1 2.9 3.2
-
Number of responses 14 14 10 7
-
4Cast 46.5 45.5 n/a n/a
ABN AMRO 47.5 47.5 2.6 n/a
Barclays Cap. 46.4 46.2 n/a 2.9
BNP Paribas n/a n/a 3.1 2.7
Capital Economics 46.2 46.5 3.0 n/a
Citi 45.5 46.0 2.2 2.9
Commerzbank 46.0 47.0 3.2 n/a
DZ Bank 46.3 46.5 2.8 3.2
Danske 47.0 46.8 n/a n/a
ING 46.5 46.2 2.5 3.0
Natixis 46.5 46.3 n/a n/a
Soc. Generale 46.5 46.2 3.3 3.3
Standard Chartered 47.5 47.5 n/a n/a
UBS 47.5 46.9 3.4 3.3
Westpac 45.8 46.3 3.0 n/a

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, October 19.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Germany Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data Fcasts Oct 22 to 26

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

PMI (flash) GfK Consumer
– October – Climate
mfg svc – November –

Median Forecast 48.0 50.2 6.0
High forecast 48.6 50.5 6.0
Low forecast 46.7 46.2 5.7
Previous period 47.4 49.7 5.9
-
Number of responses 11 11 6
-
4Cast 47.7 49.5 n/a
Barclays Cap. 47.7 49.8 n/a
BNP Paribas 46.7 46.2 n/a
Capital Economics n/a n/a 5.7
Commerzbank 47.0 49.5 6.0
DZ Bank 48.0 50.3 6.0
Danske 48.6 50.5 n/a
ING n/a n/a 5.9
Natixis 48.0 49.9 5.9
Soc. Generale 48.0 50.2 n/a
Standard Chartered 48.5 50.5 6.0
UBS 48.2 50.3 n/a
Unicredit 48.5 50.5 n/a
–

Ifo – October
Business Current Expec-
Climate Conditions tations

Median Forecast 101.6 110.0 93.8
High forecast 102.1 110.5 94.0
Low forecast 100.6 109.5 91.9
Previous period 101.4 110.3 93.2
-
Number of responses 16 10 10
-
4Cast 101.0 110.0 93.0
ABN AMRO 102.0 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 101.8 110.0 94.0
BNP Paribas 101.2 109.5 93.4
Capital Economics 102.0 n/a n/a
Citi 100.7 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 101.0 n/a n/a
DZ Bank 101.7 109.8 93.8
Danske 102.1 110.5 94.0
ING 101.3 109.8 93.6
Natixis 101.5 110.0 93.8
Soc. Generale 101.6 110.0 94.0
Standard Chartered 101.6 110.0 93.9
UBS 100.6 109.5 91.9
Unicredit 101.7 n/a n/a
Westpac 101.5 n/a n/a

—————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, October 19.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

France Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Oct 22 to 26

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

Business Job Seekers Consumer
Climate – September – Climate
– October – (000s) – October -

Median Forecast 90 24.5 84
High forecast 92 30.0 86
Low forecast 88 15.0 83
Previous period 90 23.9 85
-
Number of responses 6 6 7
-
ABN AMRO n/a 15.0 84
BNP Paribas 89 n/a n/a
Capital Economics n/a n/a 84
Citi 88 30.0 83
Commerzbank 89 n/a 86
DZ Bank 92 n/a n/a
ING n/a 21.0 n/a
Natixis n/a n/a 83
Soc. Generale 90 28.0 84
Standard Chartered n/a 30.0 n/a
UBS 90 21.0 n/a
–

PMI (flash)
– October -
mfg svc

Median Forecast 44.0 46.2
High forecast 50.5 50.5
Low forecast 41.5 43.0
Previous period 42.7 45.0
-
Number of responses 9 9
-
Barclays Cap. 44.5 47.5
BNP Paribas 46.7 46.2
Commerzbank 43.2 46.3
DZ Bank 43.0 46.0
Danske 44.6 45.8
ING 41.5 43.0
Soc. Generale 43.5 45.2
Standard Chartered 44.0 46.5
Unicredit 50.5 50.5

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, October 19.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Europe, Moore’s Law and Murphy’s Law and Milken

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:20 AM PDT

The latest summit as usual came and went with little progress made.

Peter Tchir of ‘TF market Advisors ‘ gives his view on Europe’s problems including the proposed bank supervisor and ways to combat the debt crisis in Greece and Spain

alsosprachanalyst.com

Japan’s Vice FinMin : Too early to say size, contents of economic stimulus

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 01:13 AM PDT

Speaking to reporters in Tokyo

S&P: Japan’s deficits to remain high for several years

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 12:56 AM PDT

S&P may cut Japan ratings if debt trend stays on current trend
Japan’s fiscal flexibility continues to diminish

USD/JPY at new session high 79.69.

More Mersch: Talk of further Greek debt restructuring not helpful now

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 12:33 AM PDT

No it isn’t. Stop it!!!

You can never have too much Mersch is what I say….

Greek govt must bring reform program back on track
Common debt issuance possible once fiscal union achieved
More steps towards fiscal union are necessary
New euro members must show sustainable economic convergence

ECB’s Mersch: Must avoid negative side effects of special measures – Document

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 12:20 AM PDT

Non-standard measures have “strong impact on market prices”
ECB non-standard measures in place “for as long as needed”
Must closely monitor continued need for ECB measures
Solving fiscal imbalances is beyond ECB means
ECB policies effective in containing worse outcomes
Must overcome fragmentations in euro-zone banking system

Dow Jones reporting.

Plan to ban money fund bailouts

Posted: 22 Oct 2012 12:07 AM PDT

European regulators are believed to be exploring controversial plans to ban managers of money market funds from bailing out investors if their funds suffer a loss.

Such "sponsor support" has proved crucial to the stability of the $4.1tn money market fund industry, which is a vital source of short-term funding for banks, governments and companies.

‘Google’ the headline to see the full story in the FT

Update: BOJ: 8 of 9 Regions Cut Econ Views; Recovery Pausing

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:50 PM PDT

–Adds Osaka Branch Manager Comments At Bottom

TOKYO (MNI) – The Bank of Japan said on Monday that eight out of
the nine regions in Japan downgraded their regional economic assessment
from three months ago in the wake of weaker exports and production amid
slower global growth.

“Compared with the last assessment in July 2012, eight regions
reported that the pick-up or the recovery in economic activity observed
at the time of the last assessment had come to a pause or that the pace
had moderated, mainly because overseas economies had moved somewhat
deeper into a deceleration phase,” the BOJ said in its quarterly
regional economic report.

At its next policy meeting, the BOJ board will discuss the
prospects for Japan’s recovery based on economic data including the
report. Earlier this month the bank left its policy stance unchanged
after easing last month.

It is the first time since January 2009 that a vast majority of the
regions — eight or nine — have downgraded their economic assessment.

All nine regions cut their economic assessment in October 2008 and
in January 2009 following the failure of Lehman Brothers.

The latest report also said, “The Tohoku region (northern areas hit
by the earthquake disaster last year), meanwhile, reported that the
recovery in economic activity observed at the time of the last
assessment had continued to date.”

“Although there seemed to be some signs of weakness, the economy
(in Tohoku) had been recovering as a whole, aided mainly by a
significant increase in public investment.”

The BOJ in July said that all nine regions upgraded their economic
assessment from three months earlier on the back of robust domestic
demand and recovering exports.

The latest report showed that the assessment of production was
somewhat downgraded in six regions from three months ago.

“As for production, six regions reported that it was declining or
had been relatively weak, mainly against the background of the slowdown
in overseas economies,” the BOJ said.

With regard to capital investment, it said, “eight regions reported
that it was increasing or picking up.”

The assessment of private consumption was downgraded in all nine
regions from three months ago for the first time in three years and nine
months.

Managers from the BOJ’s 32 domestic branches and two general
managers from the U.S. and Europe gathered here for a one-day quarterly
meeting to discuss economic and financial conditions.

On Monday BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa repeated the bank’s recent
statement that it will continue monetary easing to guide the economy
toward a recovery.

In his opening remarks at the branch managers’ meeting, Shirakawa
also reiterated that the BOJ will continue watching the dampening
effects of the yen’s rise on Japanese corporate profits and business
sentiment.

BOJ Osaka branch manager Masayoshi Amamiya, who is also one of the
six executive directors supporting the governor, told reporters that his
region has been hit by weak overseas demand for IT and prolonged
sluggishness of exports to China.

“A recovery of demand for IT is weak at home and overseas. Final
demand (for IT) wasn’t as strong as expected,” Amamiya said.

The economic assessment in the Kinki region was downgraded from
three months ago.

The latest report said, “The economy continues to pause as a whole,
but there seem to be signs of weakness, particularly in production.”

In July, the Kinki said, “The economy continues to pause generally,
although there are signs of picking up.”

“Looking ahead, there are three points that we have to pay
attention to in forecasting the outlook for the economy. They are global
demand for IT, adverse effects of a worsening of relationship of between
Japan and China, and sustainability of domestic demand,” Amamiya said.

With regard to risk factors, Amamiya said that the BOJ Osaka branch
needs to keep a close eye on how strongly or whether the drop in exports
will adversely affect labor and income conditions as well as private
consumption.

Amamiya said, “The environment surrounding exports remains severe
and there are strong calls from corporate executives for fixing the
strong yen.”

tokyo@mni-news.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-6860-4822 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MMJBJ$,MAJDS$]

Germany likely posted surprise growth in Q3: FinMin report

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:29 PM PDT

Bratwurst and sauerkraut for everyone!!!

BOJ downgrades 8/9 regions in it’s latest quarterly report

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:28 PM PDT

Have a look at the BOJ site here… at least ‘Kinki’ public investment’s increasing

Greek PM Samaras to visit German State of Bavaria

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:16 PM PDT

I like it when everyone’s friends

Maybe Angela will make him a nice big plate of bratwurst and sauerkraut……

Japan Sept Department Store Sales -0.2% Y/Y Vs Aug -1.0%

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:10 PM PDT

–Japan Sales Post Falls for Five Months In Row

TOKYO (MNI) – Department store sales in Japan fell 0.2% in
September, the fifth straight year-on-year drop, but the pace of decline
slowed from -1.0% in August, thanks to strong demand for jewelry and
other luxury goods, data released by the Japan Department Stores
Association showed on Monday.

Sales of jewelry and other luxury goods showed a robust 7.1% gain
in September.

The association compiles data from 86 companies running 249
department stores that have been open for at least a year prior to the
survey being conducted. The data are adjusted to facilitate comparisons
on a same-store basis.

In Tokyo, combined sales at 26 department stores rose 0.7% on year
in September, posting the second straight y/y rise +0.2% in August and
-1.0% in July.

tokyo@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4835 **

[TOPICS: M$J$$$,M$A$$$,MAJDS$]

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:01 PM PDT

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3000/10 with sell stops below through 1.2990. Offers 1.3060/75 and 1.3090/00. More offers above at 1.3140/50 (1.3146- 38.2% fibo retracement of 1.4940- 1.2042, 1.3150 barrier)

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6000/10, stops through 1.5990, ahead of tech support at the 55 day MA at 1.5977. Offers 1.6055/65,1.6090/00 and 1.6135/45 (1.6142 50% fibo retracement of 1.6309/1.5976)

EUR/GBP: Tech level/ bids 0.8110/15 (0.8110- 200 day MA) and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8060/70. Offers from 0.8140/50 ahead of barrier (0.8150), buy stops above through 0.8155. Tech res 0.8165/70 June highs, more offers 0.8190/00.

USD/JPY: Bids 79.30/50(200 day MA79.44) and 79.00/20, possible sell stops below ahead of bids 78.65/75 and further sell stops below. Offers 79.80.00, stops through barrier up at 80.00

EUR/JPY: Bids 103.40/50 sell stops below ahead of more bids 103.20/30 and 102.90/00, sell stops below. Offers 104.05/15 likely buy stops above. Tech res up at 104.75/80 (61.8% retracement of 111.44-94.12- 104.77)

AUD/JPY: Tech/bids 82.05/15 (200 day MA 82.14) and bids 81.80/90 sell stops through 81.80 and 81.40. Offers 82.40/50 likely buy stops above ahead of 82.90/00 (20/19 Sept highs)

AUD/USD: Offers 1.0335/45 (61.8% of 1.0443 – 1.0625-1.0145, 200 day MA 1.0245) and from 1.0380 through to 1.0410 (55 day MA 1.0382), buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 1.0435/45 Bids 1.0300/10(100 day MA 1.0302) sell stops though 1.0300 and larger through 1.0280 ahead of stronger bids 1.0250/60 and previous falling trend line resistance, now support 1.0225/35

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2580/90 and 1.2520/30. Offers 1.2640/50 and 1.2690/00

BOJ: 8 of 9 Japan Regions Cut Econ Views; Recovery Pausing

Posted: 21 Oct 2012 11:00 PM PDT