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• Iranian oil minister says if pressure from Western sanctions is heightened Iran will stop its oil exports
• Update: UK BBA: Mortage Approvals Rise In September
• EU Pres Van Rompuy: Growth projections for 2013 are modest
• UK BBA: Mortage Approvals Rise In September
• UK DATA: BBA Sep sa mortgage approvals 31,175 vs Aug.
• UK September home mortgage approvals rise to 31,175
• Bank of Spain bulletin: Q3 domestic demand falls -1.2% vs -1.4% in previous quarter
• Spanish Q3 GDP -0.4% q/q, -1.7% y/y
• AUD/USD slips back under 1.0300 targets some sell stops…
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up +4 bps at 5.53%
• German Foreign Min Westerwelle: Euro-bloc’s on the ‘right path’ to solve euro crisis
• ESM legality faces another challenge, this time with the European Union’s highest court
• C’mon everybody, lets get in the spirit……..
• FRANCE DATA: October mfg sentiment 85 vs September…
• French manufacturing industry morale 85.0 in October
• France’s Fin Min: Must Boost Competitiveness W/O Fiscal Shock
• If you want to know what John and Niall think about EUR/USD………
• Today’s orderboard
• French Fin Min Moscovici: French economy is not facing a catastrophe, but is in difficulty
• AUD/USD steady as Europe wakes up

Iranian oil minister says if pressure from Western sanctions is heightened Iran will stop its oil exports Posted: 23 Oct 2012 02:05 AM PDT Iran has “Plan B” to survive without oil revenues

Update: UK BBA: Mortage Approvals Rise In September Posted: 23 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT -Adds Detail To Version Transmitted At 0830 GMT -UK BBA: Sep sa mortgage approvals 31,175 vs 30,683 Aug -UK BBA Sep sa remortgage approvals 20,111 vs 17,851 Aug LONDON (MNI) – British Bankers’ Association data showed mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of housing market activity, nudged up in September to stand at their highest level since April and there was a marked rise on the month in remortgage approvals. Remortgaging plunged when the financial crisis hit, but appears to be undergoing a mini-revival, although approvals levels are still low by historic standards and down on a year ago. September mortgage approvals rose to 31,175 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 30,683 in August, a 1.6% rise on the month. Remortgage approvals rose to 20,111 in September from 17,851 in August, hitting their highest level since April. The BBA downplayed the rise in approvals in September, noting mortgage approvals were still 6% down on a year ago and the numbers of remortgaging approvals were 15% lower than in September last year. Unsecured borrowing ticked up, with net credit card credit rising to stg346 million in September from stg133 million in August. The BBA data, derived from the major British banking groups, cover the bulk of the BOE mortgage approvals data. The BOE reported 45,102 mortgage approvals in August, with the BBA’s 30,683 outturn equivalent to 68% of this total. The BOE will release its September lending data on Oct 29. If the BOE data also posts a 1.6% rise on the month, this would result in 45,824 outturn for mortgage approvals. –London newsroom: 00 44 207 862 7491; drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$,M$B$$$]

EU Pres Van Rompuy: Growth projections for 2013 are modest Posted: 23 Oct 2012 01:59 AM PDT Cant afford to lose momentum on bank ‘oversight’ Spreads decreasing in almost all EU nations Mersch’s qualifications are not in dispute, and urges the Mersch debate to focus’s on his qualifications ( after the panel opposed the appointment of Luxembourg’s central bank Governor Mersch to the ECB board) Made strong appeal for female candidates, saying there is a ‘blatant under-representation’ of women in the financial sector Full EU parliament  is scheduled to give its verdict on October 25

UK BBA: Mortage Approvals Rise In September Posted: 23 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT -UK BBA: Sep sa mortgage approvals 31,175 vs 30,683 Aug -UK BBA Sep sa remortgage approvals 20,111 vs 17,851 Aug LONDON (MNI) – British Bankers’ Association data showed mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of housing market activity, nudged up in September to stand at their highest level since April and there was a marked rise in remortgage approvals. Remortgaging plunged when the financial crisis kicked in, but appears to be undergoing a revival, although levels of approvals are still low by historic standards. September mortgage approvals rose to 31,175 on a seasonally adjusted basis, up from 30,683 in August. Remortgage approvals rose to 20,111 in Septembre from 17,851 in August, again the highest level since April. The BBA downplayed the rise in approvals, noting they were still 6% below the year ago level and the numbers of remortgaging approvals were 15% lower than in September 2011. Unsecured borrowing ticked up, with net credit card credit rising to stg346 million in September from stg133 million in August. –London newsroom: 00 44 207 862 7491; drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$,M$B$$$]

UK DATA: BBA Sep sa mortgage approvals 31,175 vs Aug. Posted: 23 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT UK DATA: BBA Sep sa mortgage approvals 31,175 vs 30,683 Aug UK BBA Sep sa remortgage approvals 20,111 vs 17,851 Aug UK BBA Sep net change in mortgage amount outstanding stg347mn BBA Sep net change credit card credit stg346mn vs stg133mn Aug BBA Sep mortgage approvals highest since April ———————————————————————— Mortgage approvals, a leading indicator of housing market activity, nudged up in September to stand at their highest level since April and there was a marked rise in remortgage approvals. Remortgaging plunged when the financial crisis kicked in, but appears to be undergoing a revival, although levels of approvals are still low by historic standards.

UK September home mortgage approvals rise to 31,175 Posted: 23 Oct 2012 01:36 AM PDT from 30,683 in August,  (-6% y/y in Sept) September mortgage lending £347 mln sharply up from -£304mln in August BBA: Continuing economic uncertainties in UK and Europe are weighing on activity in firms waiting for improvements in trade prospects ,  and households are continuing to reduce borrowing requirements preferring to put money aside for household expenditure where possible.

Bank of Spain bulletin: Q3 domestic demand falls -1.2% vs -1.4% in previous quarter Posted: 23 Oct 2012 01:30 AM PDT Demand had risen before September sales tax increase BOS sees domestic demand falling faster in Q4 Q3 employment fell -4.5% from year earlier EU summit made progress on banking union Slower euro area growth damped exports Tax receipts seriously affected by recession Rajoy may need more cuts to meet deficit aim 2013 budget goal ‘very ambitious’ Bloomberg reporting.

Spanish Q3 GDP -0.4% q/q, -1.7% y/y Posted: 23 Oct 2012 01:16 AM PDT Bit moribund there pumpkins. Think you might need a bailout to help get things moving…… Elsewhere Spain’s IBEX down -0.75% on the day.

AUD/USD slips back under 1.0300 targets some sell stops… Posted: 23 Oct 2012 12:59 AM PDT Sell stops down through 1.0280 are now coming into focus with a recent day’s low of  1.0290. Below the stops are bids again in the 1.0250/60 bracket with more sell stops apparently on a break of 1.0250 The tone remains a little negative this morning following o/n comments from  RBA board members Heather Ridout ,and Jillian Broadbent on Monday AUD’s around 1.0295

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up +4 bps at 5.53% Posted: 23 Oct 2012 12:49 AM PDT Just incase anyone cares. EUR/USD at new session low of 1.3022. Talk buy orders clustered 1.3010 thru 1.2990. Elsewhere USD/JPY has drifted moderately lower, as the pussy market has turned tail from forging triumphantly up through 80.00 Buy orders seen clustered circa 79.50.   For those with a technical bent, the 200 dma lines up at 79.45.

German Foreign Min Westerwelle: Euro-bloc’s on the ‘right path’ to solve euro crisis Posted: 23 Oct 2012 12:32 AM PDT ‘First silver lining on horizon’ in crisis Crisis isn’t over but the euro can draw on strength Euro crisis pressure must be used to deepen EU Wants to avert re-nationalization of EU policy EU must speak in one foreign policy voice EU must’ solve its own security affairs’ US reduction in Europe means a bigger EU role in providing security to the region ‘Will take a lot of years’ to build a new EU Germany only has a good future in a unified EU Bloomberg headlines

ESM legality faces another challenge, this time with the European Union’s highest court Posted: 23 Oct 2012 12:01 AM PDT Irish MP Thomas Pringle has launched a complaint to the EU court of Justice that the firewall breaches EU law and should be banned in its current form. The hearing’s scheduled for today, with a possible ruling before the year end. "The ECJ is likely to see the ESM for what it is: a necessary complement to the existing European monetary union structures, plugging a hole in the existing treaties," said Marco Incerti, an analyst at the ‘Centre for European Policy Studies’ in Brussels. "Why would they consider it unlawful?" You can read the full story here.. Bloomberg

C’mon everybody, lets get in the spirit…….. Posted: 22 Oct 2012 11:59 PM PDT Well if no one’s gonna trade, we might as well get some practice in……

FRANCE DATA: October mfg sentiment 85 vs September… Posted: 22 Oct 2012 11:50 PM PDT FRANCE DATA: October mfg sentiment 85 vs September 90 – Below expected; MNI analysts survey median forecast 89 – Execs’ own-company outlook -8 vs September -5 (-6) – Sector production outlook -56 vs September -52 – Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

French manufacturing industry morale 85.0 in October Posted: 22 Oct 2012 11:46 PM PDT Down sharply from 90.0 in September and demonstrably weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 90.0. EUR/USD down to session low 1.3038 in wake of data.

France’s Fin Min: Must Boost Competitiveness W/O Fiscal Shock Posted: 22 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT PARIS (MNI) – To improve the competitiveness of the French economy, the government should focus both on structural reforms and ways to lighten the tax burden on producers, Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici said Tuesday. The question of labor costs is “not taboo”, the minister reiterated in a radio interview, arguing that “a part” of the solution must be to lighten the payroll charges employers pay and find compensating financing for social outlays. However, there must not be a “brutal fiscal shock” that would amputate consumers’ purchasing power, given the “considerable efforts” already demanded of households to contribute to reducing the public deficit, he cautioned, rejecting a hike in the broad-based CSG tax on incomes and investment earnings. Nevertheless, the government will pay attention to the proposals of industry executive Louis Gallois, whose report will be released November 5, Moscovici assured. According to media leaks, the Gallois report will call for a hefty E30 billion reduction in payroll charges to encourage companies to invest more. To offset this revenue shortfall, the report is reportedly set to propose a E10 billion cut in public outlays and a E20 billion tax hike through a combination of the CSG or the VAT along with environmental tariffs. Moscovici also stressed the importance of “long-term” measures aimed at improving non-price competitiveness, by reducing economic rigidities, lowering service costs and favoring innovation and professional training. “We want a strong policy for competitiveness,” he said. –Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; Email: ssandelius@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,MT$$$$]

If you want to know what John and Niall think about EUR/USD……… Posted: 22 Oct 2012 11:26 PM PDT Read this. If you can’t be arsed, then don’t

Today’s orderboard Posted: 22 Oct 2012 11:24 PM PDT EUR/USD:   Bids 1.3020/30 ahead of larger down at 1.2990/3010 with sell stops below through 1.2990.  Offers 1.3080/00, buy stops above. More offers above at 1.3140/50 (1.3146- 38.2% fibo retracement of 1.4940- 1.2042, 1.3150 barrier) GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6000/10, stops through 1.5995, ahead of tech support at the 55 day MA at 1.5984. Sell stops through 1.5980 and 1.5950. Offers 1.6040/50, 1.6090/00 and 1.6135/45 (1.6142 50% fibo retracement of 1.6309/1.5976) EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.8125/30, tech level/ bids 0.8110/15 (0.8110- 200 day MA) and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8060/70. Offers 0.8155/60 ahead of tech res 0.8165/70 June highs, more offers 0.8190/00. USD/JPY:  Bids 79.80/90 some sell stops through 79.60 ahead of tech support 79.40/50(200 day MA79.45) and 79.00/20 sell stops below. Solid offers 80.00/10(exporters, amongst others) likely buy stops above through 80.10 ahead of tech res 80.50/65 (80.50 possible barrier, 80.57/63 22/25 June highs) EUR/JPY:  Bids 104.00/10 and 103.80/90 possible sell stops below ahead of more bids 103.40/50 sell stops below. Offers 104.50/60 (exporters).Tech res up at 104.75/80 (61.8% retracement of march-July drop around 104.80) and 104.90/00 with likely buy stops above., AUD/JPY: Tech/bids 82.05/15 (200 day MA 82.15), likely sell stops through 82.00 ahead of  bids 81.80/90 sell stops through 81.80 and 81.40. Offers 82.60/70 likely buy stops above ahead of strong offers 82.90/00 (20/19 Sept highs) AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0340/50 (61.8% of 1.0443 – 1.0625-1.0145, 200 day MA 1.0244) buy stops through 1.0360 and 1.0380 (55 day MA at 1.0378) ahead of offers 1.0400/10. Tech supp 100 day MA 1.0307, bids 1.0290/00 sell stops though 1.0280 ahead of stronger bids 1.0250/60 . EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2600/10 and 1.2580/90 Offers 1.2650/70 and 1.2700/10

French Fin Min Moscovici: French economy is not facing a catastrophe, but is in difficulty Posted: 22 Oct 2012 10:55 PM PDT France needs growth in order to create jobs (think we know that) French economy is too rigid Cost of labour is not a taboo subject Labour costs should be reduced Speaking on RTL radio

AUD/USD steady as Europe wakes up Posted: 22 Oct 2012 10:41 PM PDT Little in the way of direction in Asia  (along with virtually everything else), but tech support lies at the 100 day MA at 1.0307 and bids from 1.0300 appears to be fairly robust  down to 1.0290 from the likes of real money, sovereigns and exporters. Some sell stops lying in wait on a break of 1.0280. Topside offers remain in the  1.0340/50 area (200 day MA at 1.0344),  and may include some RBA commercial interest, with talk of buy stops now building through 1.0360 and 1.0380. AUD’s presently trading around  1.0324

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