InstaForex

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Greek debt rises to 150.5% of GDP in Q2

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 02:03 AM PDT

\Eeeek ! ……from 136.9% in Q1 :( (not too many raised eyebrows though)

ECB’s Hansson: Can’t rule out Spain won’t ask for a bailout

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:57 AM PDT

…Most definitely can’t

  • OMT program should be an encouragement for countries

(Hansson is also the Estonian Central Bank governor)

Talking to reporters in Tallinn, (Bloomberg)

Ifo: Germany’s Business Morale Hits 32-Month Low In October

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

Oct MNI analysts survey Sep Aug
median range
————————————————————————
Business sentiment: 100.0 101.6 100.6 – 102.1 101.4 102.3
Current conditions 107.3 109.8 109.0 – 110.5 110.3 111.1
Six-month outlook: 93.2 93.8 91.9 – 95.0 93.2 94.1
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Germany’s business climate unexpectedly eroded
further in October to its weakest level since February 2010, as firms
continued to revise down their assessment of the current situation, the
Ifo institute reported Wednesday.

Extending the run of declines to six months, the business climate
index shed 1.4 points to 100.0, undershooting even the most pessimistic
forecasts. Most analysts had expected a mild recovery, with an MNI
survey median forecast of 101.6.

“The clouds over the German economy are darkening,” Ifo President
Hans-Werner Sinn said in a press release.

Companies’ assessment of the present situation fell for the fourth
consecutive month to a 28-month low of 107.3. The six-month outlook was
unchanged at 93.2.

The unexpected deterioration in business sentiment is disappointing
and adds to signals for a further economic deceleration in the months to
come amid subdued demand and ongoing uncertainty regarding the Eurozone
debt crisis.

Released earlier today, the flash October PMI polls showed a faster
decline in new factory orders, especially in export markets and the
automotive sector.

A separate survey by the ZEW institute this month showed that
analysts on balance expected “the German economy to cool down instead of
brightening up” in the months ahead.

The Bundesbank has forecast stagnation or a slight contraction of
activity in the fourth quarter after ongoing growth in the third. It
attributed the pick-up in industry this summer in part to some auto
plants not cutting shifts as would normally be the case – an effect
which will fall off in the fourth quarter.

“Declining demand for industrial goods will become more noticeable”
in the fourth quarter, while weakening new orders suggest “that a
moderation in production could be imminent,” the central bank said.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: twailoo@mni-news.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MAGDS$,MTABLE]

European bourses are getting whacked again

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:27 AM PDT

EUROSTOXX down around 0.45%, CAC40 -0.3% and DAX -0.2%.  IBEX and FTSE MIB both leading the collapse down around -0.9% :(

EUR/USD’s seeing no real respite with losses now to 1.2922 day’s lows, following the poor German PMI and IFO data.

BBK Lautenschlaeger: Resolution Fund Needs More Econ. Coord.

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:20 AM PDT

FRANKFURT (MNI) – A joint European bank resolution fund “might
require more coordination of economic policies,” Bundesbank Board member
Sabine Lautenschlaeger said Wednesday.

She noted that economic policies are always reflected on banks’
balance sheets.

Lautenschlaeger, speaking at an event organized by Frankfurter
Volksbank, thus questioned whether simply having joint bank supervision
would be sufficient to justify shared liabilities for possible bank
failures.

She said she welcomed the push for common European supervision but
warned that it “must be a strong, efficient supervision.” In her view,
this would also imply preserving the national supervisors’ intricate
knowledge of their smaller and medium-sized local banks, she said.

On the subject of price stability, Lautenschlaeger said inflation
expectations in the Eurozone are “well anchored” and there is no reason
to fear any sharp increase in inflation.

Nevertheless, she said it is essential to keep an eye on all
non-standard ECB policy measures with a view to long-term stability and
to consider how the central bank can prepare to exit those policies.

–Frankfurt bureau tel.: +49-69-720 142 Email: jtreeck@mni-new.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$G$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$,MFGBU$]

IFO economist: ECB’s help has not reduced real economy uncertainty

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:19 AM PDT

  • There is a discrepancy between the mood of financial markets and firm’s expectations
  • ECB assistance  wont solve the eurozone crisis states’ problems, just gives them more time
  • Firms will only increase investment when a solution to the debt crisis  is in sight
  • Does not see a recession in Germany at the moment but expects stagnation in Q4
  • Private consumption remains strong in Germany, the crisis has not yet hit consumers
  • Sees no reason for ECB to cut rates

Reuters headlines

GERMAN DATA: GERMANY IFO OCT BUSINESS SENTIMENT (MNI.

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

GERMAN DATA: GERMANY IFO OCT BUSINESS SENTIMENT 100.0 (MNI MEDIAN:101.6)
- IFO: GERMANY OCT CURRENT CONDITIONS 107.3 (MNI MEDIAN: 109.8)

EUROZONE DATA: Eurozone Oct flash manufacturing PMI..

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

EUROZONE DATA: Eurozone Oct flash manufacturing PMI 45.3 vs Sept 46.1.
- Service PMI flash at 46.2 vs Sept 46.1.
- Composite Oct flash 45.8 vs sept 46.1 in Spt, lowest since 6/09 (rtrs)

German October IFO business confidence index falls to 100.00

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 01:04 AM PDT

Sharply lower than forecast of 101.5 and EUR/USD gets another kick in the guts to day’s lows around 1.2935

Current conditions index  falls to 107.3 in October, also well below forecast of 109.8,

expectations index also fell down to 93.2  (expected 93.7)

All in all, a crock of you know what …. , sell stops have been triggered down through 1.2940 and the next support level is seen into the bids sitting ahead of 1.2900 which reportedly holds a barrier.

 

EU October Flash composite PMI falls to 45.8

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:59 AM PDT

Below forecasts of 46.4  and a reading of 46.1 in September. Lowest since June 2009

Flash services PMI  46.2  after 46.1 in September (below forecast  46.4)

Flash Mfg PMI  45.3 (  from 46.1 in Sept and below Reuters forecast of  46.5

BBK Lautenschaelger: Who Says President Weidmann Is Isolated?

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:40 AM PDT

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Bundesbank Board member Sabine Lautenschlaeger
on Wednesday rejected the notion that Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann
is isolated on the European Central Bank’s Governing Council.

“Who says Weidmann is isolated?,” she replied to a question
implying that he might be.

Speaking at an event organized by Frankfurter Volksbank,
Lautenschaleger said that the debate on the Council is “very
professional and very much driven by arguments.” As the Bundesbank’s
Vice-President, Lautenschlaeger regularly joins Weidmann at Governing
Council meetings.

Weidmann, who is the only Council member to vote against the ECB’s
new bond buying program, has been subjected to criticism – even from
traditional Bundesbank allies at the Luxembourg and Dutch central banks
- for his public opposition to ECB policies.

–Frankfurt bureau tel.: +49-69-720 142 Email: jtreeck@mni-new.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$G$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$,MFGBU$]

GERMAN DATA: German Oct flash manufacturing PMI 45.7.

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT

GERMAN DATA: German Oct flash manufacturing PMI 45.7 vs Sept 47.4.
- Service PMI flash at 49.3 vs Sept 49.7.

France’s PM Warns Of Disappointing Jobless Data For September

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT

PARIS (MNI) – French unemployment continued to mount in September,
Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said Wednesday ahead of the release of
official data later in the day.

The jobless trend “cannot be good,” Ayrault said in a radio
interview, putting the blame largely on the previous government for 17
straight months of rising unemployment.

Most analysts expect a slightly steeper rise in the number of
registered jobseekers in September. After a surge of more than 41,000 in
July, the increase in August slowed to slightly less then 30,000. The
median forecast for September in an MNI poll is for rise of 24,500 in a
range of +15,000 to +30,000.

Ayrault said he would unveil the thrust of the government’s
strategy to bolster competitiveness on November 5, including public aid
for producers to boost investment and innovation and measures to contain
labor costs.

The announcement will come the day after the former industry
executive Louis Gallois releases his already controversial proposals to
shore up competitiveness. According to media leaks, the report argues
for a E30 billion reduction in employer payroll taxes to be financed
mainly through higher taxes on incomes and or consumption. Several
ministers have warned that a massive increase in the tax burden on
households could have recessive consequences.

Ayrault assured that the report would provide an “essential
contribution” to the government’s plan, even if not all measures would
be adopted.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; Email: ssandelius@mni-news.com.

[TOPICS: MFFBU$,M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$]

German October Flash composite PMI falls to 48.1 (from a final 49.2 in September)

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:29 AM PDT

Market’s not liking that at all as EUR/USD lurches lower to the 1.2975 level from 1.2990

Flash services PMI 49.3. below forecasts of 50.0 and last months final reading  of 49.7

Flash Mfg PMI falls sharply as well to 45.7, against a forecast of 48.0 and last months final read of 47.4

 

Cable spikes on UK clearer buying

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:12 AM PDT

Just nudged sharply up to 1.6000 on an early dawn raid by a major UK bank , but offers sitting up at 1.6000/10 are expected to make progress slow.

The move knocked the wind out of EUR/GBP’s sails revisiting Monday’s lows of 0.8123,  and turns  focus back again on the  200 day MA at 0.8108.

GBP/USD’s around 1.5989 with the cross at 0.8128

French October Flash Composite PMI rises to 44.8

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 12:00 AM PDT

…up from a final reading of 43.2 in September

October Flash services PMI, up to 46.2 from 45.0 in September

Flash Mfg PMI rose to 43.5  from a final 42.7 in September

Better than last month’s but still the 8th consecutive month of  shrinking business activity

BOE’s KIng: MPC stands ready to inject further stimulus if UK recovery falters

Posted: 23 Oct 2012 11:47 PM PDT

The BOE Governor  said that GDP data tomorrow might confirm a ‘zigzag’ recovery in the UK which is likely to be ongoing.

He’s also been quoted in the Telegraph as saying that there won’t be any recovery until banks  are recapitalised and they own up to the size of their bad debts

Warning that the next generation may have to live with the consequences of past excesses "for a long time to come", Sir Mervyn said Britain's banks needed to drop the "pretence" that their debts will be repaid.

More….

So Gerry and I aren’t alone after all…

Posted: 23 Oct 2012 11:30 PM PDT

I was beginning to wonder if we were the only USD/JPY bulls about, but it appears Nomura’s now popped up with a long USD/JPY recommendation.

They went long at 78.80 last week with a stop at 77.00 and a target of 82.00 and are looking to add to their long position..

Thanks to Ursus  for this one. :)

USD/JPY presently sitting around 79.80

ECB’s Asmussen: Giving Greece more time would require more money

Posted: 23 Oct 2012 11:16 PM PDT

  • Troika talks making progress but no final decision as yet.
  • Primary goal is to provide stable money
  • Bond purchases are within ECB’s mandate
  • Agrees with many of  BUBA Weidmann’s arguments
  • Money supply growth is ‘very moderate’  (whatever that’s supposed to mean!)
  • Inflation expectations are firmly anchored at around 2%

Speaking on ARD public TV

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 23 Oct 2012 11:09 PM PDT

EUR/USD:   Bids 1.2950/60 (M/East, real money), sell stops through 1.2940 ahead of further bids 1.2900/10(Talk of a barrier now down at 1.2900). Offers 1.3000/10 (supranational, SNB and sovereign) possible buy stops above ahead of congestion area 1.3050/70.

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.5920 down to 1.5900, stops through 1.5900 (1.5913- 38.2% of 1.5270-1.6310). Offers 1.5970/80, 1.6000/10 and 1.6040/50

EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.8125/30, tech level/ bids 0.8100/10 (0.8108- 200 day MA) and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops below ahead of bids 0.8060/70. Offers 0.8155/60 ahead of tech res 0.8165/70 June highs, more offers 0.8190/00.

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.70/80 ahead of tech support 79.44/50(200 day MA79.47) sell stops below ahead of strong bids 79.00/20 and larger sell stops below. Solid offers 80.00/10 (exporters, amongst others) likely buy stops above through 80.10 ahead of tech res 80.50/65 (80.50 possible barrier, 80.57/63 22/25 June highs)

EUR/JPY:  Bids 103.20/30 and 103.00/10,  sell stops below. Offers 103.75/85 and 104.00/10 (exporters) and 104.50/60. Tech res up at 104.75/80 (61.8% retracement of march-July drop around 104.80)

AUD/JPY: Tech/bids 82.00/20 (200 day MA 82.16), likely sell stops through 82.00 ahead of  bids 81.70/80 likely sell stops through 81.65 and 81.40. Offers 82.35/45 and 82.60/70 ahead of strong offers 82.90/00 (20/19 Sept highs)

AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0310/20 and 1.0340/50 (61.8% of 1.0443 – 1.0625-1.0145, 200 day MA 1.0244) buy stops through 1.0360 and 1.0380 (55 day MA at 1.0378) ahead of offers 1.0400/10. Bids 1.0280/00 sell stops below ahead of stronger bids 1.0230/50 (Tues low 1.0236) and 1.0200/10 (barrier 1.0200) .

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2580/90 and tech support 1.2500/10.  Offers 1.2635/45 and 1.2640/50

 


at 5:06 PM

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)