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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Italian August sa retail sales flat m/m after -0.2% m/m fall in July

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 02:03 AM PDT

Unadjusted sales fell 1.0% y/y – ISTAT

EMU Sep Priv Sector Loans Down 0.8% Y/Y;M3 Growth At 5-Mo Low

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT

September sa M3: +2.7% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +3.0% y/y
SA private loans: -0.8% y/y

MNI survey median:
September sa M3: +3.0% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +3.0% y/y
SA private loans: -0.8% y/y

MNI survey range:
September sa M3: +2.2% to +3.4% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +2.7% to +3.3% y/y
SA private loans: -1.0% to -0.5% y/y

August sa M3: +2.8% y/y
M3 sa 3-mo avg: +3.1% y/y
SA private loans: -0.6% y/y
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Annual private sector loan volume in the Eurozone
contracted as generally expected in September, while the M3 broad money
supply growth slowed to a five-month low, the European Central Bank
reported on Thursday.

Loans to the private sector fell by 0.8% on the year, bringing the
annual growth rate of credit extended to the private sector to -1.3%
compared to -1.2% in August. Adjusting for sales and securitisation,
private sector loans were down by a more modest 0.4% y/y.

Household loans rose by 0.1%, halving August’s rate of growth,
with mortgages – the most important component – 0.7% higher on the year
compared with August’s +0.8% annual rate.

Conversely, loans extended to non-financial corporations fell by
E21 billion on the month, tripling August’s decline and resulting in an
annual contraction of 1.4% after August’s 0.7% slide.

The growth rate of loans to governments rose to 8.3% on the year,
up 0.2 percentage point from August.

With the annual rate of lending growth still subdued, strong
evidence has yet to emerge that the E1.2 trillion lent to banks via the
ECB’s two three-year long-term refinancing operations are reaching the
real economy. A record-low ECB refinancing rate also seems to have had
little impact, due in large part to financial market segmentation.

“The soundness of banks’ balance sheets will be a key factor in
facilitating both an appropriate provision of credit to the economy and
the normalisation of all funding channels, thereby contributing to an
adequate transmission of monetary policy to the financing conditions of
the non-financial sectors in the different countries of the euro area,”
ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier this month.

On the other side of the equation, credit demand remains weak and
is unlikely to recover in the near term amid a deteriorating economic
outlook, waning demand from business, rising jobless fears and a bleaker
financial outlook for consumers.

Broad money (M3) grew 2.7% on the year in September, below both
August’s 2.8% rate and the median forecast of +3.0%. As a result, the
three-month moving average came to +3.0%, still well below the ECB’s
target of +4.5%.

Over the same period, narrow money (M1) growth slowed to +5.0% from
August’s +5.2%, while the growth rate of short-term deposits other than
overnight deposits eased 0.1 percentage point to +0.6% y/y. Marketable
instruments fell 1.4% on the year, deepening the previous month’s 0.3%
fall.

While Eurozone inflation of 2.6% in September remained well above
ECB’s medium-term target of close to but below 2%, the modest growth in
broad money indicates that inflation risks are not high at the moment.
In fact, Draghi’s comments to Germany’s Bundestag on Wednesday suggested
the opposite: “In our assessment, the greater risk to price stability is
currently falling prices in some euro area countries.”

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; e-mail: twailoo@mni-news.com –

[TOPICS: M$$EC$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$,MTABLE]

Cable running out of steam?

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:52 AM PDT

The rush of blood following the strong GDP release is starting to show signs of exhaustion with a recent high of 1.6135.  There is some fibonacci retracement/resistance around 1.6158 (61.8% of the  Sept 21 -Oct 23 fall), and the  17/18 Oct highs around 1.6160/70.

The move’s obviously put further downward pressure on EUR/GBP and a second close today below the 200 day MA at 0.8107 is likely to keep the cross under further pressure  This morning ‘s move matched the Oct 16 lows of 0.8065. A break here targets  0.8040 lows of Oct 14

GBP/USD’s around 1.6110 with the cross at 0.8074

 

UK Osborne: UK Has Long Way To Go On Economy

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

LONDON (MNI) – UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has
welcomed data that show the UK hauled itself out of recession in the
third quarter of 2012, but warned that the country still has a long way
to go to before it returns to full health.

“There is still a long way to go, but these figures show we are on
the right track. This another sign that the economy is healing and we
have the right approach,” Osborne said.

Osborne also warned that recent weak data from the eurozone were a
reminder that the UK still faces many economic challenges at home and
abroad.

Figures from National Statistics showed the UK economic growth
bounced back strongly in the third quarter to rise at its fastest pace
for five years, helped by Olympic ticket sales.

While the outturn beat the market expectation significantly and
takes the UK out of recession, looking through a lot of the special
factors means underlying growth remains weak. A rough guide is that
taking into consideration the Jubilee impact in Q2 and the Olympic
ticket sales, underlying growth in Q3 was more like 0.3% on the quarter.

While it puts growth a little above where the Bank of England
thought it would in Q3, policymakers are likely to want to look through
the data and focus on core growth in terms of policy. Output since Q4
2011 has only rise 0.3% — well below trend growth.

–London newsroom: 00 44 20 7862 7492;e-mail: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

UK Analysis: Q3 GDP Posts Largest Rise in 5 Years

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

-Q3 Preliminary GDP +1.0% q/q; unch. y/y

LONDON (MNI) – UK economic growth bounced back strongly in the
third quarter to rise at its fastest pace for five years, helped
by Olympic ticket sales, figures from National Statistics showed
Thursday.

While the outturn beat the market expectation significantly and
takes the UK out of recession, looking through a lot of the special
factors means underlying growth remains weak. A rough guide is that
taking into consideration the Jubilee impact in Q2 and the Olympic
ticket sales, underlying growth in Q3 was more like 0.3% on the quarter.

While it puts growth a little above where the Bank of England
thought it would in Q3, policymakers are likely to want to look
through the data and focus on core growth in terms of policy. Output
since Q4 2011 has only rise 0.3% — well below trend growth.

GDP rose 1% on the quarter in Q3 and was unchanged on the year
following a quarterly drop of 0.4% in Q2, the strongest quarterly growth
for 5 years. This was significantly above the median forecast for an
increase of 0.6% on the quarter and fall of 0.4% on the year.

Growth was led by services where output rose 1.3%, helped by
Olympic ticket sales which are estimated to have boosted the rise in
quarterly GDP by 0.2 percentage point.

Industrial production posted a 1.1% quarterly rise, led by a 1%
increase in manufacturing.

Output in the construction sector, however, continued its run of
falls, dropping by 2.5% on the quarter.

–London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]

UK DATA: Q3 Preliminary GDP +1.0% q/q; unch. y/y…..

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

UK DATA: Q3 Preliminary GDP +1.0% q/q; unch. y/y
————————————————————————
UK economic growth bounced back strongly in the third quarter to
rise at its fastest pace for five years, helped by Olympic ticket sales.
While the data beat the market expectation significantly and takes the
UK out of recession, looking through a lot of the sepcial factors means
underlying growth remains weak. A rough guide is that taking into
consideration the Jubilee impact in Q2 and the Olympic ticket sales,
uncerlying growth in Q3 was more like 0.3% on the quarter. While it puts
growth a little above where the Bank of England thought it would in Q3,
policymakers are likely to want to look through the data and focus on
core weal growth in terms of policy. Output since Q4 2011 has only rise
0.3% — well below trend growth. Growth was led by services where output
rose 1.3%, industrial production posted a 1.1% quarterly rise, led by a
1% increase in manufacturing.

UK Q3 GDP +1.0% q/q

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:30 AM PDT

Demonstrably stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of +0.6%.

UK FinMin:

  • UK GDP figures show we are on the right track
  • Weak data from the euro zone show trhat UK faces many economic challenges at home and abroad

BOE’s Fisher: UK Econ Has Been Flat Last 2 Yrs- Western Mail

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:30 AM PDT

LONDON (MNI) – The UK economy has been basically flat over the last
two years, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Paul Fisher
was quoted as saying Thursday, adding that there were signs that the
BOE’s Funding for Lending scheme was working.

“I don’t think there has really been one [double dip recession]…
The economy has basically been flat for two years… If you strip out
all the quarter by quarter movements caused by special factors, the
underlying figure is just flat,” Fisher is quoted by the Western Mail
newspaper as having said.

Recent official GDP readings have shown the economy mired in the
longest double-dip recession since the second world war but many
analysts have said that the contractions are a result of one-off factors
and the underlying picture is one of flattish growth.

On the BOE’s Funding for Lending Scheme which provides cheaper bank
borrowing costs providing they pass on lower lending rates to companies
and consumers – he said that although it was too early to gauge its
impact, there were already signs that it was having the desired effect.

“First of all, we are seeing a fall in bank lending costs across
the whole spectrum. Libor rates [very short-term interbank lending
rates] are down 60 basis points… Any firm that has a floating rate
loan linked to Libor, is automatically enjoying now a 50 to 60 basis
points decrease in its interest payments,” Fisher said.

He added: “Even if lending doesn’t increase, there will be quite of
lot of benefits in lending rates having come down.”

–London newsroom: 00 44 20 7862 7492;e-mail: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

Cable rallying into GDP data

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:24 AM PDT

Presently at session high 1.6090.

This data betta be every bit as good as people are expecting is all I’m saying.

Even if it’s around the median forecast of +0.6%, we still might be in danger of a buy the rumour, sell the fact price reaction.

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield off -4 bps at 5.53%

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:11 AM PDT

EUR/USD sits at 1.3007.  Next set of buy stops through 1.3015.

EUROZONE DATA: Eurozone Sep M3 Aug 3-month avg at vs.

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

EUROZONE DATA: Eurozone Sep M3 Aug 3-month avg at 3.00% vs 3.2% previous
- Eurozone Sep M3 Aug annual at 2.7% vs 2.9% previous

Eurozone Sept M3 annual growth 2.7%

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 01:03 AM PDT

Below expectations  of 3%

Sept annual growth loans to private sector -0.8% (expected -0.6%)

BOE’s Fisher: UK economy has been flat, not in recession

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 12:59 AM PDT

You should get out more matey…….

  • Says further cut to bank rate could hurt banking system, may not boost economy much

Q3 GDP provisional data up in half an hour, median forecast +0.6% q/q as Olympics-effect kicks in.

I’ve just worked out……..

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 12:52 AM PDT

We can have a ‘woo hoo’ (I’m off to buy a new motor) and a ‘pop goes the weasel’ if  we reach 80.26.

As Peter mentioned earlier barrier option interest at 80.25 and 80.50, defensive offers ahead of both levels.

We sit presently at 80.15.

Dutch October business confidence -7.7

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 12:32 AM PDT

Down from -6.7 in September :(

BOE Bean: UK Past The Worst; Growth To Pick Up

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT

LONDON (MNI) – The UK economy is over the worst and growth is
expected to pick-up, Bank of England Deputy Governor Charles Bean says.

In an interview with the North Wales Daily Post, published ahead of
today’s Q3 GDP data release, Bean was fairly upbeat.

“Looking at the UK economy the expectation is growth should be
picking up,” Bean said.

“There is bound to be volatile movement from quarter to quarter but
the underlying trend is for growth,” he added.

Analysts’ median forecast for Q3 GDP is for 0.6% growth on the
quarter, boosted by the rebound from the exceptionally wet and Jubilee
impacted Q2 and by Olympic ticket sales.

Bean said the BOE’s Funding for Lending Scheme “should start to
make an impact”, by easing credit supply to business.

“It’s going to take time, probably several months, but I would like
to make people more optimistic about the future… I think we’re past
the worst,” Bean said.

–London bureau: +4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
lcommons@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$]

MPC’s Bean: UK economy is ‘past its worst’

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 12:17 AM PDT

  • UK should be more ‘optimistic’ regarding its future
  • ‘Expectations are for growth to pick up’
  • Underlying trend is for growth amid volatility
  • Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) should start to have an impact

Comments made in the Daily Post

NB: UK Q3 GDP is due out at 0830GMT

Spanish September PPI fell -0.1% m/m, +3.8% y/y

Posted: 25 Oct 2012 12:02 AM PDT

down from  +1.1%m/m and +4.1% y/y in August

C’mon……I can smell it!!!

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT

80.18 session high

Cyprus To Propose Bank Supervision Compromise – Press

Posted: 24 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT

FRANFKURT (MNI) – A Cypriot proposal to limit bank supervision by
the European Central Bank to systemically-relevant institutions is to be
discussed over the next two days, the Financial Times Deutschland
reported on Thursday.

According to the German business daily, Cyprus – the current holder
of the European Union’s rotating presidency – envisions the ECB also
overseeing any institutions supported by the EU’s bailout funds, namely
the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Stability
Mechanism.

The Cypriot idea is seen as a compromise, the FTD said, between
giving the ECB oversight over all 6,000 of the Eurozone banks but
delegating daily monitoring to national supervisors, and Germany, which
wants to limit ECB supervision to only the largest banks.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@mni-news.com –

[TOPICS: M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]


at 5:04 PM

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