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Monday, October 29, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

European stocks giving more ground, Italy’s FTSE MIB leading the way

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:56 AM PDT

It’s down a hefty -1.6%!!

I guess Italy’s suffering in no small part from the political uncertainty there.

Cheers Silvio ;)

Bank of Spain to announce bad bank details at 5.00 pm

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:51 AM PDT

Bloomberg reporting.

Guess that’s local time.

BOE Dale: Makes No Sense To Increase QE If Having Less Impact

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:40 AM PDT

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Chief Economist Spencer Dale has
dismissed the idea that if quantitative easing is having less impact the
BOE should just do more of it.

In an interview with the Times Dale says the argument makes no
sense, and reprises the view set out in a recent speech that the central
bank has to weigh up the costs as well as benefits of QE. He also argues
for the BOE to be more transparent than ever as it assumes extra powers.

“One of the statements I dislike the most of all is when sometimes
people say ‘Well, if it’s having less effect then you just double or
triple the dosage’,” Dale says.

“To my mind that doesn’t seem to make any sense once you take
account of the fact that there are potential costs and risks associated
with an instrument,” he adds.

The Times also says Dale remains concerned inflation, despite the
headline rate dropping to 2.2%, will stay above its 2% target for at
least another year.

Dale voted against the QE extension in July and has been a distinct
voice highlighting the case against what he terms the Pavlovian reaction
of increasing stimulus whenever growth disappoints

-London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$]

ECB’s Provopoulos: EU funds are important for Greek growth

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:25 AM PDT

Greece needs to proceed with it’s national growth plan

Bloomberg reporting

Germany: Saxony Oct CPI +0.1% M/M; Above Pan-German Forecast

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

Saxony CPI

October: +0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y
September: +0.2% m/m, +2.0% y/y
—
Pan-German CPI

MNI median forecast: flat m/m, +2.0% y/y
MNI forecast range: -0.1% to +0.1% m/m

October: -0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y
—

BERLIN (MNI) – Consumer prices in the eastern German state of
Saxony rose 0.1% in October, leaving the annual inflation rate steady at
+2.0%, the state statistics office said Monday.

The monthly result is above the median forecast for a flat reading
for pan-German CPI in a MNI survey of analysts. The western German state
of Hesse on Friday posted a flat reading.

Upward pressure on inflation in Saxony came from prices for
clothing and shoes, which rose 2.2% on the month. Food prices climbed
1.0%, with seasonal food up 3.6%.

Energy prices were mixed, with heating oil up 1.7% and gas up 0.2%
while electricity remained flat and motor fuel was down 2.9%.

Prices for packaged holiday tours fell 3.1%, hotel and restaurant
services dropped 0.2%, while airline tickets rose 0.8%.

Annual inflation was again marked by rising energy prices. Heating
oil prices rose 10.1%, motor fuel was up 6.2%, gas prices climbed 2.8%
and electricity prices rose 0.5%.

Food prices were 3.3% higher than a year ago, with seasonal produce
up a whopping 11.1%. Prices for clothing and shoes were up 3.6% on the
year.

CPI excluding heating oil and motor fuel was up 0.2% on the month
and 1.6% on the year. CPI-ex seasonal food was up 0.1% on the month and
1.8% on the year.

The Finance Ministry said last week it expects only moderate
inflation in Germany over the coming months given the subdued global
economic trends. In its latest economic forecast released earlier this
month, the government predicted inflation of 2.0% this year and 1.9%
next year.

Import prices in Germany fell back in September due to declines in
most major components led by energy.

Some analysts, however, expect inflation in Germany to pick up over
the medium term given that monetary policy in the Eurozone is too
expansionary for Germany.

Pipeline price pressures seem be mounting in the private sector,
the PMI polls suggest, with input costs seeing another moderate rise in
October (55.0). Pricing-power, by contrast, remained subdued due to
strong competition and weaker demand. Output prices increased only
slightly in October (50.7) after three months of marginal decline.

While stronger wage growth could lead to inflation risks down the
road, Pier Carlo Padoan, chief economist with the Organisation for
Economic Cooperation and Development, argued recently that Germany
should consider raising its inflation tolerance to help debtor Eurozone
members better adjust.

By accepting higher wage inflation, creditor countries like Germany
could provide a boost to debtor countries via increased consumption,
while lower wages would allow the Eurozone’s debtor nations to be more
competitive, Padoan said.

For detailed information see data table on MNI MainWire.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MT$$$$]

GERMANY DATA: Saxony October CPI +0.1% m/m, +2.0%….

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:10 AM PDT

GERMANY DATA: Saxony October CPI +0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y; September +2.0%
y/y
– Saxony October CPI m/m above MNI pan-German survey median(0.0%)
– Saxony October CPI ex-seasonal foods +0.1% m/m, +1.8% y/y
– Saxony October CPI ex-fuel/heating oil +0.2% m/m, +1.6% y/y
– Saxony October CPI ex-energy/seasonal foods +0.2% m/m, +1.4% y/y
– Saxony October motor fuel prices -2.9% m/m; heating oil +1.7%
– Saxony October package vacations -3.1% m/m; other svcs +0.4%
– Saxony October alcohol/tobacco -0.3% m/m; healthcare +0.3%
– Saxony October food prices +1.0% m/m; seasonal foods +3.6%
– Saxony October clothing/shoes +2.2% m/m; education unch%
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

Spanish Sept retail sales fall sharply

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 01:02 AM PDT

Down -10.9% y/y, well below Reuters forecast of -6.2 % and last month’s reading of -2.1%, VAT hike being blamed for the large spike down.

Shocker of a number but hardly surprising :(

Fiscal austerity: A deficit of common sense

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:55 AM PDT

Bundesbank says Weidmann speech in Frankfurt today cancelled

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:45 AM PDT

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!

One less thing to cover.

And he’s a miserable so and so anyways……. (and that’s coming from me!!)

Guess it’s one less thing for the euro to worry about.

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:44 AM PDT

EUR/USD:   Offers 1.2940/50, and 1.2980/00. Bids 1.2880/00 sell stops through 1.2875, ahead of bids 1.2835/45 ( 200 day MA 1.2835) and likely sell stops just below.

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6070/80 and 1.6025/35, sell stops below ahead of tech support 55 day MA 1.6013. Offers 1.6100/10, 1.6135/45 and tech res 1.6175/80 (1.6178 Oct 17 high)

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8035/45, tech res/offers 0.8095/05 (0.8103- 200 day MA) and 0.8135/45. Bids 0.8000 /10 (cloud top 0.8004, 55 day MA 0.7996) and tech support 0.7968 (100 day MA)

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.45/60 (200 day MA 79.51, tankan line 79.50), sell stops below through 79.45, ahead of more bids 79.20/30 and 79.00/10. Offers from 79.90/80.10 and above at 80.30/40. Buy stops above and again through 80.60

EUR/JPY:  Bids 102.70/80 and stronger  102.00/20 (Kijun line 102.12, 200 day MA 102.07). Offers 103.05/15 and 103.30/50

AUD/JPY: bids/tech supp 82.15/25 (200 day MA 82.19), likely sell stops through 82.00 ahead of stronger bids 81.65/75 (cloud top 81.74) . Offers 82.60/70 and 82.90/00, buy stops up through 83.10 ahead of offers 83.50/60 (Aug 21 high 83.57)

AUD/USD:  Offers /tech res 1.0340/50 (200 day MA1.0343), tech res 1.0360/80 (55 day MA at 1.0362) ahead of stronger offers 1.0390/00 with buy stops through 1.0410. Bids 1.0340/50 ( 200 day MA 1.0342) and  1.0300/10 sell stops down through 1.0280 ahead of stronger bids 1.0230/50 (Tues low 1.0236) and 1.0200/10 (barrier 1.0200) .

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2455/65 likely sell stops below ahead of tech support bids 1.2420/30 (Oct 2 lows) and 200 day MA at 1.2410.  Offers  1.2490/00, 1.2540/50 and 1.2590/00

Italian 2 year notes sell off, yields rise +8 bps to 2.36%

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:37 AM PDT

Italian 10 year govt bond yield up +5 bps at 4.95%

Spanish 2 year notes see yields rise +4 bps to 3.10%

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up +5 bps at 5.64%

EUR/USD slightly easier in early European trade, presently at 1.2915.

 

EMU Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Oct 29 to Nov 2

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT

Economic Industry Services Business
Morale Morale Morale Climate
– October – – October – – October – - October –

Median Forecast 84.1 -16.3 -12.5 -1.4
High forecast 86.0 -13.0 -11.5 -1.3
Low forecast 83.0 -17.0 -13.0 -1.5
Previous period 85.0 -16.1 -12.0 -1.3
-
Number of responses 10 5 4 4
-
4Cast 84.0 -16.8 -13.0 -1.4
ABN AMRO 86.0 n/a n/a n/a
Capital Economics 84.0 n/a n/a n/a
Citi 83.0 -13.0 n/a n/a
Commerzbank 84.5 -17.0 -13.0 n/a
DZ Bank n/a n/a n/a n/a
ING 84.9 -16.3 -12.0 -1.3
LBBW 84.0 n/a n/a n/a
Natixis 85.0 -16.2 -11.5 -1.4
Unicredit 84.0 n/a n/a n/a
Westpac 84.2 n/a n/a -1.5
–

HICP (flash) Jobless
– October – – September -
%yoy rate (%)

Median Forecast 2.5 11.5
High forecast 2.6 11.5
Low forecast 2.2 11.4
Previous period 2.6 11.4
-
Number of responses 10 8
-
Barclays Cap. 2.5 11.4
Capital Economics 2.6 11.5
Citi 2.6 11.5
Commerzbank 2.4 11.5
DZ Bank 2.2 n/a
LBBW 2.5 11.5
Standard Chartered 2.6 n/a
UBS 2.5 11.4
Unicredit 2.4 11.5
Westpac 2.5 11.5

——————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, October 26.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

Germany Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data Fcasts Oct 29 to Nov 2

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT

CPI (flash) HICP (flash)
– October – – October -
%mom %yoy %mom %yoy

Median Forecast 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0
High forecast 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.3
Low forecast -0.1 1.9 -0.1 1.9
Previous period 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.1
-
Number of responses 7 12 6 7
-
4Cast 0.1 2.1 0.1 2.1
ABN AMRO n/a 1.9 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 0.0 2.0 0.0 2.0
BoA-ML n/a n/a n/a 2.1
Capital Economics n/a n/a 0.0 2.0
Citi -0.1 1.9 -0.1 1.9
Commerzbank -0.1 1.9 n/a n/a
DZ Bank 0.0 2.0 n/a n/a
ING n/a n/a n/a n/a
LBBW n/a 1.9 n/a n/a
Natixis 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.3
Standard Chartered n/a 2.0 n/a n/a
UBS 0.1 2.0 0.1 2.0
Unicredit n/a 1.9 n/a n/a
Westpac n/a 1.9 n/a n/a
–

Unemployment Retail Sales
– October – – September -
rate change %mom %yoy
(%) (000s)

Median Forecast 6.9 12.0 0.5 -1.2
High forecast 8.0 20.0 0.5 -0.6
Low forecast 6.8 5.0 0.3 -1.2
Previous period 6.8 9.0 0.1 -1.2
-
Number of responses 10 9 9 3
-
4Cast 6.9 n/a 0.5 n/a
ABN AMRO 6.9 15.0 n/a n/a
Barclays Cap. 6.9 12.0 n/a n/a
Capital Economics 6.9 n/a 0.5 -1.2
Citi n/a 15.0 0.5 n/a
Commerzbank n/a 10.0 0.5 -0.6
DZ Bank 6.9 5.0 0.5 n/a
ING 6.9 n/a 0.3 -1.2
LBBW 6.8 n/a 0.3 n/a
Standard Chartered 6.9 12.0 n/a n/a
UBS 6.8 8.0 n/a n/a
Unicredit 6.9 10.0 0.5 n/a
Westpac n/a 20.0 0.3 n/a

—————————————————————
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, October 26.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

France Data: MNI Survey Of Econ Data F-casts Oct 29 to Nov 2

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:30 AM PDT

Consumer Spending
– September -
%mom %yoy

Median Forecast 0.0 -0.6
High forecast 0.5 -0.2
Low forecast -0.6 -1.0
Previous period -0.8 -0.5
-
Number of responses 5 3
-
ABN AMRO 0.0 n/a
Barclays Cap. 0.5 n/a
Capital Economics -0.2 -0.6
Citi -0.6 -1.0
Natixis 0.2 -0.2

———————————————————————–
* Median is based on above forecasts and is not intended to represent
a consensus.

The survey was conducted on Friday, October 26.

[TOPICS: MTABLE,M$GDS$,M$G$$$,M$XDS$,M$X$$$]

French FinMin Moscovici: Immediate cut in labor cost isn’t possible

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:28 AM PDT

  • Deficit-cutting more important than labor costs

Happy Dayz :(

Ya know, I’m getting rather worried about France :(

Mario Draghi interview with Der Spiegel

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:21 AM PDT

Give ya something to read……

Let me know whether he said anything interesting, haven’t read it yet ;)

EUR/USD poll-time!!!

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:12 AM PDT

Let’s see if there’s a strong opinion among Forexlive readers.

We sit at 1.2915

What’ll we see first, 1.2815 or 1.3015?

Reason/s for choice always much appreciated, but not obligatory.

My expectations are extremely low…….

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 12:06 AM PDT

I’ve almost given up all hope of seeing decent price action in EUR/USD.

Last Wednesday, or was it Thursday (all days seem to meld into one these days), I opined that 1.2800-1.3200 looked a “rock solid” range for the time being. Knowing what I know right now, I have no reason to change that opinion.

We sit at 1.2922.

Talk of buy orders lined up from 1.2900 through 1.2880.  Topside, talk of sell orders clustered 1.2980/00.

I’ll be doing a EUR/USD poll in a minute to see if there’s a strong opinion among Forelive readers, although I’m not holding my breath.  I’d hazard a guess beforehand that opinion will be on balance negative. We’ll see.

REPEAT-Germany Aims For Zero Net New Borrowing In 2014:Press

Posted: 28 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT

BERLIN (MNI) – Germany aims to lower federal net new borrowing to
zero in 2014, German daily Bild reported over the weekend, citing
government sources.

According to the newspaper, the chancellery and the finance
ministry are currently pondering over ways to achieve this goal.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble also reaffirmed in an
op-ed piece for German regional daily Tagesspiegel published on Sunday
that the federal budget will be close to balance in 2013.

The government projected in June that the federal structural budget
deficit is to fall from 0.86% of GDP this year to 0.35% next year and
further to 0.21% in 2014.

Schaeuble also affirmed in his op-ed piece that Germany’s total
public budget deficit will sink to below 0.5% of GDP in 2013 and will be
balanced in 2014.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$G$$$,MFGBU$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$]

REPEAT-Schaeuble Rules Out Further Greek Debt Haircut:Press

Posted: 28 Oct 2012 11:40 PM PDT

BERLIN (MNI) – Germany categorically has ruled out a further
restructuring of Greek sovereign debt, German Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble said in a radio interview aired Sunday.

German weekly Der Spiegel reported over the weekend that the troika
of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the
International Monetary Fund had called for a new haircut on Greek bonds
which would also force public creditors to write-off Greek debt.

“That is a discussion which has little to do with the reality in
the member states of the eurozone,” Schaeuble told German public radio
Deutschlandfunk.

The minister, though, raised the possibility of a debt buy-back
program for Greek sovereign bonds in the secondary market.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$Y$$$,MT$$$$]


at 5:05 PM

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