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Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Euro zone August retail sales +0.1% m/m, -1.3% y/y

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 02:01 AM PDT

Stronger than Reuters’ median forecast of -0.1%, -2.0% respectively.

July data revised upward as well, to +0.1% m/m, -1.4% y/y from previous -0.2%, -1.7%.

BOE: UK Q2 Housing Equity Injection Largest Since Q2 20l1

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT

LONDON (MNI) – UK homeowners continued to inject substantial
amounts of equity into their properties in the second quarter of this
year, Bank of England data show.

Second quarter housing equity withdrawal was -stg9.829 billion, a
net equity injection, the largest injection since the -stg10.187 billion
HEW outturn in Q2 2011. Since June 2008 the BOE data have shown net
injections, with the onset of the financial crisis rapidly reversing the
previous trend for UK homeowners to borrow against their properties.

With mortgage rates and volumes low by historic standards the data
have shown homeowners increasing their equity. HEW as a share of
post-tax income held steady at -3.6% in Q2 and was last lower at -3.9%
in Q2 2011.

Housing equity withdrawal is a measure of secured borrowing not
invested in the housing market. It is the net result of increases in
mortgage lending and capital grants minus household investment in
housing.

-London newsroom: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDA$,MABDS$]

Japan MOF’s Jojima: To Take Decisive Action on Sharp Yen Rise

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 02:00 AM PDT

TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese Finance Minister Koriki Jojima on Wednesday
repeated the official line that the government will take action to
counter a sharp, one-sided rise in the yen in the currency market.

“The current foreign exchange market is showing a one-sided
appreciation of the yen, which does not reflect Japan’s economic
fundamentals,” he told a group of reporters in an interview.

“If this development becomes excessive, we will take decisive
action,” he said.

On demands from some politicians that the central bank should do
more to maximize monetary easing, Jojima said “I expect the Bank of
Japan to conduct decisive monetary policy when necessary.”

The minister, who took office on Monday after a cabinet reshuffle,
repeated his comments that the government needs to be cautious about
considering whether to revise the law and allow the BOJ to buy foreign
bonds as a way of helping ease the yen’s rise.

The BOJ board is expected to stand pat at its two-day policy
meeting ending on Friday as it already eased credit further last month
by increasing Japanese government bond buying.

“I am aware of downside risks to the economy,” Jojima said, adding
that the government will take necessary fiscal measures.

He also repeated that it is still undecided on whether the
government needs to compile a supplementary budget to support the
economy amid global slowdown.

tkeditorial@marketnews.com
** MNI Tokyo Newsroom: 81-3-5403-4833 **

[TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$J$$$,MGJ$$$]

AUD/USD edges under 1.0200

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:54 AM PDT

EUR/AUD’s the culprit here, with a break up  now through  the 55 week moving average  at 1.2647 and now the June 14 highs of 1.2655. Next pocket of resistance lies above at 1.2680  (June 11 highs) ahead of the weekly Ichimoku cloud base at 1.2742

AUD/USD’s  finding a few bids around the 1.0200 level which i’m told was a barrier,  (low 1.0198) but  there’s more demand touted in the 1.0170/90 region, and talk of  sell stops just below

EUR/AUD’s just off day’s highs of 1.2663 with AUD /USD around 1.0212

 

 

Japan FinMin Jojima: Always ready to take firm measures on currencies when needed

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:52 AM PDT

  • Cannot comment on what will be discussed at G7 meeting next week
  • Yen gains are one-sided, do not reflect Japan’;s economic fundamentals
  • BOJ and govt share views on beating deflation, expect BOJ to take bold steps when needed
  • Must be careful about debating BOJ purchases of foreign debt

BIS sells EUR/USD

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:42 AM PDT

In recent trade. Not sure of exact level/s. Gotta think up in the 1.2920/30 zone.

We’re at 1.2915.

Yesterday they were seen buying down in 1.2880/85 area.

Taking circa 40 pips out of this crap market isn’t bad going.

Spain EconMin Guindos: Bad bank to acquire real estate assets

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:41 AM PDT

UK Services PMI falls to 52.2 from 53.7 in August

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:32 AM PDT

Reuters poll was going for 53.0, and there was a rumour doing the rounds that this would be lower (surprise, surprise)

Think the market had already pre-empted the release as EUR/GBP leapt up to  0.8024 ahead of the announcement.

Composite PMI fell to 51.1 from 52.2 in August

Cable’s off a touch around 1.6105

UK DATA: Look ahead -…………………………..

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:20 AM PDT

UK DATA: Look ahead -
- MNI median forecast Sep Markit/CIPS services PMI seen at 53.0

Eurozone Sept final composite PMI slips to 46.1 from 46.3 in August

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 01:03 AM PDT

Flash reading was 45.9., lowest since May 2009

Sept composite new business falls to 43.8 from 44.4 in Aug (Flash 43.6)

Markit:  Sees little hope for any return to growth in Q4

German Sept Final Services PMI 49.7

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 12:54 AM PDT

Down from flash reading of  50.6, but up from final August reading of 48.3.

Business expectations index plunged to 3.5 year lows  of 43.5 from 50.9 in August

Final composite PMI index  49.2 after flash reading of 49.7, but up from  August’s final reading of 47.0

French September final services PMI falls to 45.0

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 12:50 AM PDT

From flash 46.1.

Italian Sept services PMI edges up to 44.5 from 44.0 in August

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 12:49 AM PDT

But… September services employment index  falls sharply to 43.8 from 46.0 in August (largest fall since June 2009).

PMI still  shows contraction for the 16 consecutive month

Get on ya bike

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 12:47 AM PDT

Wow I’d like a bike like that (even if it’s a ladies bike)

I remember fondly the days when I was a postman.  Me and my trusty steed Brian (that’s what I called my bike)

Happy Dayz  :)

How did those stops……

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 12:25 AM PDT

Below 1.2880 work for ya?

Told ya it was a silly place to put ‘em.

1.2877 change 1.2895……..

Can we go home yet?

Spain September services PMI 40.2 from 44.0 in August

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 12:16 AM PDT

Oops… and even below pessimistic forecast of 42.5, lowest since Nov last year

New business index also down to 40.2 from 43.3 in August and the lowest since October last year

More reasons to expect Rajoy to ask for a bailout…?

Option expiries(updated)

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:50 PM PDT

For the 1000NY/1400GMT cut:

Nearby ones include…

EUR/USD: 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.3000,

GBP/USD: 1.6200,

USD/JPY: 77.40, 77.60, 78.00, 78.25,

EUR/JPY: 100.25, 101.50

AUD/USD: 1.0200, 1.0225, 1.0300,

USD/CAD: 0.9900

EUR/AUD: 1.2500

Spanish 2 year notes yield up 10 bps at 3.24%

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:48 PM PDT

That’s what happens if ya don’t ask for a bailout ;)

Italian 2 year notes yield up 6 bps at 2.26%

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:41 PM PDT

EUR/USD: Offers 1.2910/20 and 1.2930/50 possible buy stops through 1.2970 ahead of stronger offers 1.2980/00. Bids from 1.2880 /90 some light sell stops through 1.2875 ahead of more bids 1.2850/60 and further sell stops through 1.2845 ahead of tech supp 200 day MA at 1.2823.

GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6100 down to 1.6080 (M/E, real money), sell stops below and down through 1.6050. Offers 1.6135/45 and 1.6180/00 (UKClearers)

EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.7975/80 and 0.7940/45 and 0.7920/25 (trend line supp) ahead of tech support 0.7917- 55 day MA. Offers /Tech res and 0.8015/20 possible buy stops above ahead of more offers 0.8050/60

USD/JPY: Bids from 78.00 down to 77.50 from importers (and probably semi official towards 77.50) sell stops below through 77.40. Offers 78.25, trailing up to 78.50 buys stops above 78 50 ahead of offers 79.00/10 more buy stops likely just above

EUR/JPY: Bids 100.50/60, and 100.00/10 and 99.80/90 sell stops below and through 99.60. Offers101.10/20 buy stops above ahead of more offers, 101.40/50 and strong tech res 101.73 (200 day MA)

AUD/JPY: Bids/techs 79.65/75 (79.68 Sept 5 low) sell stops below through 79.50 ahead of bids 79.30/40 Offers 80.20/30, and 80.60/70 (Tech res now at 80.68 (100 day MA)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0200/10 possible sell stops below ahead of  bids1.0180/90, sell stops just below ahead of tech supp 1.01665/75  and 1.0100/10 (1.0100 July 9 low and 50% fibo)..Tech res now at 100 day MA at 1.0239 and offers up to 1.0250, ahead of tech res 1.0290/95 (1.0292 cloud base)

EUR/AUD: Tech res 1.2645/55 (14 Jun high 1.2655, 55 week MA at  1.2647)  and 1.2675/80 ( Jun 11 high 1.2680) ahead of weekly cloud base at 1.2742. Bids now  at 1.2605/15 (earlier buy stops trigger), 1.2580/90 and tech supp 1.2550/60 ( yesterday’s break out lvl)

Deja vu all over again

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 11:28 PM PDT

This is getting feckin tedious.

EUR/USD sits at 1.2890 (but mummy I don’t want to leave the 1.2900)

Talk of some sell stops through 1.2880.

I’d hazard a guess, using my vaste store of market experience, that they’re relatively light. I mean, who in their right mind would put a stop there!!!

I guess some of the main foci remain:

  • When is Spain going to reach out for a bailout?
  • What has the Troika got in store for Greece?
  • Is China going to continue going down the toilet at warp factor 9?
  • Will we break out of the 1.28-1.30 stranglehold before Christmas?


at 5:09 PM

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