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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

RBA’s Deputy Gov Lowe: Inflation is consistent with bank’s target range

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 02:02 AM PDT

  • Interest rates are low historically, give some support to demand
  • Low rates have yet to  to boost home loan appetite , so need to be watched carefully
  • Internationally, Australian rates are relatively high, but for good reason
  • Super-low rates of some struggling economies are ‘not something to aspire to’
  • Australian dollar is strong mainly due to commodities, portfolio flows having some impact
  • Recent Chinese economic data  has been more positive, suggesting growth has stabilised

German October sa jobless total +20k, weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of +10k

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 01:56 AM PDT

Unemployment rate unchanged at 6.9% from upwardly revised 6.9% in September (previously 6.8%)

German Labour Office says weaker economy hurting labour market, but jobs market remaions “in good shape”

EUR/USD touch easier in wake of data, presently at 1.2933 having earlier gotten as high as 1.2950. (or 1.29495 if you go with EBS)

GERMANY DATA: October sa unemployment +20k m/m vs….

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 01:50 AM PDT

GERMANY DATA: October sa unemployment +20k m/m vs MNI fcast +12.0k
– Germany October sa unemployment rate 6.9% vs September 6.9%
– Germany October sa unemployment 2.937 mln vs September 2.917 mln
– Germany October nsa unemployment rate 6.5% vs September 6.5%
– Germany October nsa unemployment 2.753 mln vs September 2.788 mln
– Germany October sa job vacancies -7k vs September -5k
– Germany September sa payroll jobs -8k vs August +20k
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

BOJ’s Shirakawa: Amount likely to be disbursed under BOJ’s new loan scheme estimated at 15 trln yen

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 01:06 AM PDT

  • BOJ and government joint statement is mutual understanding on policy roles to end deflation
  • Statement shows govt understands BOJ alone can’t end deflation
  • Board members Sato, Kiuchi, disagreed with BOJ view in semi annual report that CPI to approach 1% in fiscal 2014
  • Sato, Kiuchi argued for change in wording on BOJ commitment to ultra-easy policy
  • Strongly expects govt to support economic growth with deregulation
  • Funds offered under new loan scheme can be used for lending both at home and overseas
  • BOJ does not respond automatically to market expectations of monetary policy
  • No decision yet on how long new loan scheme will last
  • Want to map out details of new loans scheme by end of this year
  • Achieving 1% inflation will remain key in BOJ policies even beyond 2014
  • Biggest change in outlook is that slowdown in overseas economies is worse than expected
  • Joint BOJ-govt statement was first to be issued since revised BOJ law went into effect
  • No set formula in gauging whether 1% inflation is foreseen

Don’t know where he comes up with 15 trln, thought it was 11 trln……

Spanish preliminary Q3 GDP -0.3 % q/q, -1.6% y/y

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 01:01 AM PDT

From -0.4%, -1.3%  in Q2 and marginally better than expected (-0.4, -1.7%)

October national CPI 3.5%y/y from 3.4% in September

October Flash harmonised CPI 3.5% unchanged from September, but slightly above forecasts of 3.4%

Another China bull…

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 12:54 AM PDT

Bof ‘s China economist Ting Lu sees strong growth in the last quarter of this year, and even better next year forecasting GDP at 8.1% from 7.,6% on the back of ‘green shoots’ and better quality data…

More… Business Insider

Germany Sep ILO Employment Down by 15,000; Jobless Down 19,700

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 12:20 AM PDT

– Sep -15k, Aug +11k, Jul +25k, Jun +4k, May +16k, Apr +17k, Mar +38k

FRANKFURT (MNI) – The number of employed in Germany fell in
September for the first time after six months of uninterrupted growth,
while the ranks of the unemployed maintained its downward trend, the
Federal Statistical Office reported on Tuesday.

Employment fell back 15,000 on the month in seasonally adjusted
terms to 41.536 million. In unadjusted terms, the number of gainfully
employed rose by 208,000 to 41.752, its strongest jump since September
2011 (+256k)

Over the same period, ILO unemployment contracted by 19,700, but
the rate was unchanged at 5.4%.

The relative resilience of the labour market and positive wage
developments continued to support consumer morale in October, as income
expectations and households’ willingness to spend improved, a GfK survey
noted.

Still, with an Ifo institute survey showing companies’ short-term
hiring expectations well below average and falling further in some
sectors, employment could be shifting toward a downward trend.

The institute’s employment barometer fell for the third consecutive
month in September, reaching its lowest level since mid-2010. “There are
a growing number of signs that isolated companies may reduce their
staffing levels,” Ifo said.

The latest Markit Economics’ PMI polls suggest that the downturn
may have already begun. “Worries about future demand and space capacity
in turn contributed to the first back-to-back monthly contraction of
German private sector employment since the beginning of 2010,” Markit
senior economist Tim Moore said.

At 8:55 GMT today, the Federal Labour Office will publish October’s
unemployment figures. The median forecast in an MNI survey of analysts
is for a further rise of 12,000 persons, which would lift the seasonally
adjusted jobless rate to 6.9%.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142: email: frankfurt@marketnews.com –

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,MAGDS$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$]

EUR/USD extends recovery

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 12:14 AM PDT

EUR/USD has extended it’s recovery, presently at 1.2938, with Asian central banks notable among those trying to make me look silly with my 1.2815 call.

Sell orders as aforementioned clustered 1.2940/50, light stops gathered just above there before ‘decent’ sell orders 1.2990/00.

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 30 Oct 2012 12:04 AM PDT

EUR/USD:   Offers 1.2940/50, and 1.2980/00. Bids 1.2880/00 sell stops through 1.2875, ahead of bids 1.2835/45 (200 day MA 1.2835) and likely sell stops just below.

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6025/35, sell stops below ahead of tech support 55 day MA 1.6019. More bids 1.5980/00 with sell stops through 1.5975. Offers 1.6040/50 and 1.6100/10,

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8035/45, tech res/offers 0.8095/05 (0.8100- 200 day MA) and 0.8135/45. Bids 0.8035/45 and 0.8000 /10 (cloud top 0.8005, 55 day MA 0.8000) and tech support 0.7969 (100 day MA)

USD/JPY:  Bids 79.00/20 sell stops below. Some tech res up around 79.50/65 post BOJ (200 day MA 79.52, tenkan line 79.65), Offers from 79.90/80.10 and above at 80.40/60, buy stops above.

EUR/JPY:  Bids 102.00/20 (Kijun line 102.11, 200 day MA 102.08), sell stops through 101.80. Offers 102.90/00 and 103.30/50

AUD/JPY: bids/tech supp 82.15/25 (200 day MA 82.20), likely sell stops through 82.00 ahead of stronger bids 81.65/75 (cloud top 81.73). Tech res tankan line at 82.50, offers 82.90/00, buy stops up through 83.10 ahead of offers 83.50/60 (Aug 21 high 83.57)

AUD/USD:  Back up now through 200 day MA 1.0341, tech res 1.0360/70 (55 day MA at 1.0360) ahead of stronger offers 1.0390/00 with buy stops through 1.0410. Bids 1.0325/35 and  1.0300/10 sell stops down through 1.0280 ahead of stronger bids 1.0230/50  and 1.0200/10 (barrier 1.0200) .

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1.2450/60 likely sell stops below ahead of tech support bids 1.2420/30 (Oct 2 lows) and 200 day MA at 1.2410.  Offers 1.2490/00, 1.2540/50 and 1.2590/00

NZD/USD:  Offers 0.8235/45 likely buy stops above ahead of tech res 0.8260/70 (Oct 5 high 0.8266). Bids 0.8200/10 (cloud top 0.8202), 0.8170/90 (38.2% retracement of 5-28 Sept rise, around 0.8188) possible sell stops through 0.8160 (55 day MA 0.8163)

GERMANY DATA: September ILO sa employed 41.536 mln;..

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:50 PM PDT

GERMANY DATA: September ILO sa employed 41.536 mln; -15k m/m: stats off.
– Germany September ILO sa unemployed 2.28 mln; -19.7k m/m: Destatis
– Germany September ILO sa unemployment rate 5.4%; August 5.4%
– Please see MNI Mainwire for further details

Not again!!!

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:38 PM PDT

The aforementioned EUR/USD buy orders at 1.2880/90 have once again proven a durable barrier to accelerated downside.

From session low 1.2886 we’ve bounced back sharply above 1.2900, presently at 1.2920.

Talk of sell orders now clustered up at 1.2940/50.

Having gone with 1.2815 before 1.3015 in yesterdays’  EUR/USD poll I’m feeling a teensy weensy bit deflated by the latest price action :(

BOJ Board semi-annual forecasts

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:34 PM PDT

  • Japan core CPI seen -0.1% in Fiscal 2012/13 ( forecast +0.2% in July),+0.4% in 2013/14 (from +0.7% in July), and +0.8% in 2014/15
  • GDP seen +1.5% in fiscal 2012/13, (forecast +2.2%), +1.6% in 2013/14 (forecast +1.7%) and +0.6% in 2014/15
  • Economy likely to resume moderate recovery as global growth emerges., but have to remain vigilant towards risk of  a prolonged overseas slowdown.
  • Inflation likely to steady towards 1% in fiscal 2014
  • Planned sales tax hike to push up CPI by 2% in fiscal 2014

USD/JPY gives ground in active trade

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:27 PM PDT

USD/JPY languishes presently down around 79.40,  having seen a sharp sell-off (as low as 79.27) in the wake of the BOJ move to increase the asset buying and lending programme by 11 trln to 91 trln.

You can look at this price action either of two ways. It’s either a classic buy the rumour, sell the fact price action (an increase of 10 trln had been well flagged up by the Japanese media beforehand.)  Or you can take the USD/JPY sell-off as a reflection of disappointment that the increase hadn’t been even more than 11 trln (some greedy bastards having been looking for upwards of 20 trln)

Personally I’d go with the former. The danger for the USD/JPY bulls was always that 10 trln had been well discounted.

From here, talk of buy orders clustered 79.00/20.

Nikkei closes down 0.98% at 8841.98

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:10 PM PDT

Off sharply at the day’s end on the BOJ announcement, with the 9000 level now proving  to be reasonable resistance this week

EUR/USD pulled lower by strong EUR/JPY selling

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:08 PM PDT

EUR/USD has sold off below 1.2900, pulled lower by strong EUR/JPY selling as the Japanese yen sees good across the board strength in the wake of the BOJ decision to increase the asset buying and lending programme by 11 trln. What we’re seeing with the yen is a classic buy the rumour, sell the fact price action (or in the case of the yen, sell the rumour, buy the fact)

EUR/USD buy orders now lined up at 1.2880/90, sell stops through 1.2875.

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:07 PM PDT

For the 1000 NY/1400 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1.2800, 1.2850, 1.2865, 1.2880 1.2900, 1.2925, 1.3000,

GBP/USD: 1.6050, 1.6100,

EUR/GBP: 0.8050

USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.25, 79.50,.80.00, 80.50

EUR/JPY: 103.75

EUR/CHF: 1.2090

BOJ : No upper limits to total amount of funds provided by the new loan scheme

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 11:06 PM PDT

  • Will offer funds to banks at their request, up to the amount equivalent to net lending increase
  • BOJ will continue powerful easing until it judges it can see its 1% inflation price goal is in sight

BOJ keeps overnight call rate target unchanged at 0.01%, expands asset buying and lending programme by JPY11 trln

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 10:48 PM PDT

Unanimous vote to keep rate unchanged.

Asset buying and lending programme now totals JPY91 trillion, Increases long/term JGBS and Treasury discount bills by JPY 5 trln each

BOJ increases ETFS by JPY0.5 trln, J-REITS by JPY0.01 trln

BOJ’s economic outlook will be released at 0630 GMT ( originally scheduled for 0600GMT), and Gov Shirakawa will give a briefing 15 mins later.

USD/JPY lurches lower on the announcement to fresh lows around 79.33 tripping the earlier mentioned stops through 79.45 before recovering to around 79.55, Nikkei falls back sharply around 1%

USD/JPY just off day’s highs ahead of the BOJ

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 10:37 PM PDT

Sitting around 79.97 as we wait for the announcement (day’s high 80.00), with expectations currently of some JPY10 trillion of easing. Offers lie just above in the 80.00/10 area with some possible buy stops above ahead of further offers from 80.40/60 and more buy stops just above. Downside bids start from 79.50/60 with sell stops through 79.45.

EUR/JPY’s back up through 103.00, with offers currently in place  at 103.30/50,and tech resistance just above at the Ichimoku tenkan line of 103.56.  Bids now 102.85/95 and more down at 102.50/60 with  sell stops below.

AUD/JPY’s also holding firm ahead of the BOJ with support now coming in around 82.50 (tenkan line) and 82.20 (200 day MA). Offers start from 82.80/00 and 83.40/50 with likely buy stops above.

 

Armageddon? It doesn’t look like it to me….

Posted: 29 Oct 2012 10:10 PM PDT


at 5:06 PM

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