| US Sr Tsy Offl: Whether Europe/Asia/India, Growth the Focus Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:30 PM PDT By Denny Gulino WASHINGTON (MNI) – Previewing Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner’s trip next week to India and G7 and IMF meetings in Tokyo, a senior Department official said global growth will be the focus as Europe makes progress with new crisis tools and China manages structural change important to the United States. The official, briefing reporters, said Geithner will be highlighting to his counterparts, as reflected in the Friday’s U.S. jobs report, what will be welcome news the U.S. is contributing to growth and has a policy to reduce its deficit over time, without a sharp withdrawal of government spending. The official did not refer to the impending “fiscal cliff” set of year-end circumstances that threatens exactly that kind of withdrawal. “We’re at a place in the global recovery where we really need all the major economies to provide support for the recovery, a balanced recovery,” the official said. That is why Europe needs to continue to “navigate forward” through financial challenges, the official continued, while China supports global growth and “advances their agenda of structural transformation.” As important as China’s adjustments are for its own economy, it is also “very important in creating a balanced economic relationship with greater opportunities for U.S. workers and exporters, with a more level playing field, an economy that operates according to international standards on intellectual property and an economy that has an exchange rate that is based on market determination,” the official said. The U.S. is “seeing a very substantial shift” by China toward a flexible exchange rate, the official added, while the shift to a consumption-based economy instead of exports is not yet sufficient. Geithner travels to India Tuesday along with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to participate in the third annual meeting of the U.S.-India Economic and Financial Partnership that had been postponed earlier. Geithner goes on to Mumbai, the financial center, for meetings with business executives. Later in the week Geithner moves on to Tokyo for Friday’s Group of Seven and the weekend IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings. “The discussion in the G7 will focus very much on global growth prospects and what each of the members of the G7 can do to support growth here in our own economy and of course in the global economy more generally,” the official said. In Europe, “They have taken steps to create tools that we believe put them in a much stronger position to reduce tail risk and to continue to move forward on reforms” while maintaining “sustainable market financing,” the official said. As an example of collaborative growth efforts, “In recent weeks we’ve seen action on the part of the Federal Reserve, the ECB, the Bank of Japan all aimed at providing liquidity,” the official said. Helping is the plan in the U.S. to slow the growth of the deficit by $4 trillion while “leaving room for U.S. investment in competitiveness.” ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: MI$$$$,M$X$$$,MAUDS$,M$A$$$,M$Q$$$,MN$FX$,M$U$$$,M$$CR$] |
| Moody’s:To Keep US Locl Gov Outlk Neg Until Signif Econ Gains Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:20 PM PDT By Yali N’Diaye WASHINGTON (MNI) – Moody’s said Friday it is maintaining a negative outlook for local governments, and it is likely to keep it that way until “there are more significant and longer-lasting gains in the economy that foster improvements in local government budgets.” In addition to sluggish economic conditions putting strains on property taxes, local government budgets face pressure on the state aid revenue front — likely to continue “for the foreseeable future as states contend with budget challenges of their own” — while pension and health care costs continue to rise. “As budget reserves and other sources of liquidity dwindle, some issuers are turning to borrowing for operations and more are facing severe financial strain,” Moody’s said in its mid-year outlook. Hence the negative outlook for the next 12 to 18 months. That being said, Moody’s pointed out that the debt burden was typically low, and most local governments “still have room to manage financial burdens through spending adjustments and by raising property taxes, fees, and user charges for essential utility services.” Yet the performance of the economy remains central to a change in the outlook. And on that front, Moody’s expects “tepid” and “uneven” growth across regions, while the housing price recovery will take time — at least until 2014 — before it is reflected in property tax revenues. And before things get better, Moody’s anticipates that “More instances of severe credit stress will surface on the back of mounting wage and benefit costs, failing enterprise risks, and tightening liquidity.” Bankruptcies and defaults remain “rare,” however, among local governments. Besides, Moody’s recognized steps that have been taken by local governments to balance their budgets, with spending cuts going beyond discretionary program and affecting core government functions. “Drawing down reserves has been another strategy used to close budget shortfalls,” Moody’s also noted, warning, however, of the potential negative implications of this strategy and the number of local governments with negative fund balances — indicating low cash positions – has increased in recent years. Fund balances, expenditures and cash positions are all components of a “Proposed Fiscal Stress Monitoring System” announced in September by the New York New York State Comptroller’s Office as another way to address local governments’ budget issues. Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli announced on September 24 that his Office was planning to implement an “early warning monitoring system that would identify municipalities and school districts experiencing signs of budgetary strain so that corrective actions can be taken before a full financial crisis develops.” The corrective action is not a financial aid, but would take place in the form of technical assistance from the State to avoid a fiscal crisis. The State will assign “scores” to municipalities and school districts to classify them into three categories: “significant fiscal stress,” “moderate fiscal stress,” or “nearing fiscal stress.” The comptroller’s office will start implementing the system around February to localities whose fiscal year ends December 31, 2012. The “Proposed Fiscal Stress Monitoring System” is out for comment for a 60-day period. The financial indicators it relies on include year-end fund balance, operating deficits, cash position, use of short-term debt, and fixed costs such as employee benefits. New York State Deputy Comptroller Steven Hancox told MNI Friday there is no plan to expand this system at the national level. “We have not had any discussions with other states on it at the moment,” he said. He said he is not certain it would be possible to elaborate a national system because “each state would have to make a determination whether they had the authority to do such a thing,” he said. He added the relationship between a state and local governments varies from one state to the other. Given those differences, he concluded “it is a little hard to have a national system.” In New York State, the goal of the proposed monitoring system is to enable early action to avoid a crisis, with potentially an improvement in local governments’ credit ratings. The ultimate impact on local government’s ratings, however, remains unclear, although comments from Standard & Poor’s suggest they would tend to be positive. Standard & Poor’s said Thursday in a commentary that “state oversight of local government fiscal affairs can play an important role in financial stability and can be a credit positive where it has contributed to pro-active management policies.” It added, “We consider budget adjustments and multiyear financial planning to be valuable mechanisms for addressing fiscal stress, and significant components of overall financial management, which can be an important factor in determining rating outcomes.” Still, “it is too early in the process to determine if this enhanced fiscal monitoring will ultimately improve a local government’s credit characteristics,” the rating agency said. ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: MR$$$$,M$U$$$,M$$FI$,MFU$$$] |
| ForexLive North American wrap: IT’S A CONSPIRACY Posted: 05 Oct 2012 01:15 PM PDT - Non-farm payrolls +114K vs +115K exp
- Crazy old man sparks day-long Twitter row over accuracy of NFP numbers
- Canadian Sept employment +52.1K vs +10K exp
- Saenz: Spanish bailout not a question of if, but when
- Rajoy: Spain hasn’t made up its mind yet
- ECB’s Asmussen: Not a done deal that Greece will get next aid tranche
- Fed's Dudley: Housing a key impediment to growth.
- Fed's Duke: US has extraordinary amount of vacant and distressed properties
- European Institute sees recession through Q1 2013
- Joint statement calls for European banking supervision this year
- US consumer credit up most in three months
- Another Spanish region gets on the dole
- S&P 500 flat at 1461
- CAD leads, AUD lags
Hard to feel too strongly either way. On the one hand, the euro rallied to the highest since September after NFP. On the other, it gave up almost all its gains by the end of the day. Daily range 1.3071-1.2994. Closing around 1.3029. USD/JPY jumped to 78.87 after payrolls from 78.50 then slid back to 78.67. The Canadian dollar also benefit ted from strong domestic numbers, sliding 70 pips to 0.9735 but later gave back almost all the gains. AUD was battered repeatedly throughout the day. AUD/USD couldn’t clear 1.0275 after the upbeat payrolls news and keeled over and died after stops below 1.0240 broke. Cascading losses continued as low as 1.0152. Last at 1.0170. Gold $1781. Oil $89.88. |
| Yep, the AUD longs have been covering Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:51 PM PDT Weekly data on futures positioning from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report (as of the close on Tuesday). - EUR net short 50K, unchanged vs prior week
- JPY net longs increase to 29K vs 21K prior
- GBP net long 30K vs 27K prior
- AUD net long 64K vs 90K prior
- CAD net long 101K vs 105K prior
- NZD net long 21K vs 20K prior
- CHF net short 1K, unchanged vs prior week
Not much movement. Australian dollar longs were covered but still remain at a very high level.  The whipsaw in specs is the kind of thing that happens near a long-term top. |
| EUR/AUD was the best performer this week Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:45 PM PDT The euro was the top gainer in the past week, while the Aussie dollar was the laggard. EUR/AUD gained 400+ pips on the week. This pair has been crushed for the last 4 years but nothing lasts forever in FX. Since the record low in August, EUR/AUD has climbed in 6 of the past 8 weeks and almost wiped out the summer declines. There is scope for a pullback to 1.26 and that would be a solid entry point but might be overly optimistic. The upward momentum in this pair is likely to continue as speculators exit large EUR shorts and AUD longs.  As a target, the 1.3000/50 level dovetails beautifully with the May highs and the 100-week moving average. |
| NFIB: Drop in Manufacturing Payrolls, Household Data Surprises Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:30 PM PDT By Josh Newell WASHINGTON (MNI) – Friday’s September jobs report was generally as expected, illustrating still weak private sector growth, according to the chief economist of the National Federation of Independent Business. Payrolls growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ establishment survey was rather weak, as the NFIB forecast, William Dunkelberg told MNI in an interview. “The private sector is still weak, not going into a recession by any means, but growth is weak,” said Dunkelberg. The one sector that did surprise was manufacturing, “Manufacturing was the only sector that posted a meaningful gain in payrolls in our small business survey, so we were a little surprised with the manufacturing number in today’s report,” he said. Manufacturing payrolls declined by 16,000 in September, after being downwardly revised to a 22,000 drop in August — compared with a 15,000 decrease initially reported. Dunkelberg was not sure if the exact reason for the divergence between the BLS report and the NFIB survey but said that this does not necessarily mean that small manufacturing businesses shed jobs in September. “Declining exports could be causing larger manufacturers to be losing jobs,” he said. While the establishment survey was generally as expected, the household survey section of the report did cause quite a surprise. According to Dunkelberg, “Everything was expected except for the household data. That was very inconsistent.” The household survey showed a decline in the unemployment rate to 7.8% from 8.1% in August, and a jump of 873,000 in those employed. “You don’t get that kind of job creation with the GDP growth we have,” said Dunkelberg, who mentioned that the last time the U.S. had this kind of a monthly increase, the economy was growing at an 8% pace. “Maybe we are currently growing faster than the 1.3% pace from the second quarter, but we certainly aren’t growing fast enough to create 800,000 jobs a month,” he concluded. –Joshua Newell is a reporter for Need to Know News in Washington ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MAUDS$,M$$CR$] |
| US DATA: Aug consumer credit +$18.1b vs -$2.5b July.. Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:10 PM PDT US DATA: Aug consumer credit +$18.1b vs -$2.5b revised July. In Aug revolving +$4.2b, resuming its growth, and nonrevolving +$13.9b. NSA Fed govt +$23.9bm (included DOEd and other education loans), suggesting additional training could be the main driver of credit growth. |
| US DATA: Tsy-HUD Sept Hsg HAMP Scorecard says equity. Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:10 PM PDT US DATA: Tsy-HUD Sept Hsg HAMP Scorecard says homeowner equity is rising and underwater borrowers are -11% yoy. But it shows 17,000 got permanent mortgage modifications in August, the same number as in July. See MNI Main wire. |
| Asmussen: …about that money for Greece Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:02 PM PDT - Not a done deal that Greece will get the next tranche of aid
- ECB cannot extend the maturity of Greek bonds or reduce their interest rates
- Reuters quoting from a German newspaper
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| US consumer credit surges most in three months Posted: 05 Oct 2012 12:00 PM PDT - +$18.12B vs +7.25B exp
- Large rise in borrowing for education and vehicles
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| Germany about to start feeling isolated on banking supervision Posted: 05 Oct 2012 11:52 AM PDT France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Malta release a joint statement calling for a single European banking supervision system to be decided this year and operational by January.  |
| Update: Duke: Fed to Use ‘All Policy Tools’ To Support Recov Posted: 05 Oct 2012 11:40 AM PDT –Updating With Duke Comments From Audience Q&A –Vacant, Distressed US Properties at Extraordinary Level By Claudia Hirsch NEW YORK (MNI) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Elizabeth Duke Friday said that in the wake of the U.S. housing crisis, certain areas with high residential-property vacancy rates will require government intervention to heal. An “unprecedented volume of foreclosures” has “left us with an extraordinary level of vacant and distressed properties,” Duke told a luncheon audience at a distressed residential real estate conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “In order to see the robust economic recovery we all want, we need to deal effectively with the large volume of vacant and distressed properties throughout the country,” she said. “Certainly, different housing markets will recover in different ways and at different paces,” Duke added. “In some areas, the private market will lead the way, while in others, government will have to use precious resources wisely to catalyze recovery.” For its part, “I can assure you the Federal Reserve System will continue to support recovery through the use of all its policy tools and research capacity,” she said. The costs of such government solutions must be weighed against the “costs of doing nothing,” she said, and pointed to demolition and conversion costs that taxpayers may ultimately bear. But Duke also noted “signs of improvement” in U.S. housing conditions this year, including rising home prices that have moved a “noticeable number of underwater households … from negative equity to positive equity.” Still, she cautioned that “these struggling high-vacancy areas provide evidence of the hard work that remains.” For-sale vacancies, however, are only one part of total vacancy volume, she said. “Many vacant homes are not on the market at all,” Duke said, and noted those in the foreclosure process and bank-owned homes not yet for sale, as well as those vacant for reasons unrelated to foreclosure. “The stock of non-seasonal homes held off market is nearly two and a half times as large as the for-sale vacant stock,” she said. This component of vacancies has not declined “at all” in the past year, she added. The Fed governor said there is “no one-size-fits-all” solution to the vacancy conundrum. Neighborhood stabilization efforts must take different forms. In what she called “housing boom” areas – metropolitan areas where there are long-term vacancies among relatively newly built homes, and where median incomes, home values and education levels are higher – a useful solution could include conversions to rental units, especially as the rental market tightens. In these areas, notably Phoenix, there are signs of investor purchases that are resulting in more rental stock, she said. But Duke cautioned against “aggressive” investor activity that could “crowd out potential homeowners, especially low- to moderate-income households.” She praised government programs that offer a “first look” window of time during which only non-investors can bid on properties. Turning to Baltimore, a “low demand” areas of high long-term vacancy rates, Duke cheered the city’s initiative that includes an array of approaches, including “targeted housing code enforcement to foster redevelopment,” homebuyer incentives and, in certain hardest-hit communities, demolition. She also said that tighter, more prudent mortgage-lending standards should not “unnecessarily dampen the housing recovery and disproportionately affect creditworthy low-income and minority homebuyers.” Answering questions from the audience, Duke said “the policy focus needs to remain squarely” on increasing the credit availability. “Monetary policy works through the availability of credit.” She said she is “not convinced” that the “return” to credit availability will be as swift as in the past. Duke said it is important for lenders to ensure that they “can still make the irregular loan, one that does not fit into the box.” She said stricter lending standards present barriers to these unusual loans and narrow the types of loans made. And larger banks’ and non-banks’ percentage of loan origination is declining, she said, while some of the “slack is being picked up by small lenders.” Duke also said that the thorny issue of home-value appraisals during the lending process is tough to solve. In some areas, appraisers come from hundreds of miles away and without meaningful knowledge of the particular market. Some states’ databases do not include sale prices, she said. But she said that if upward home-price momentum builds, appraisal prices will “improve.” ** MNI New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$$AG$,M$$CR$] |
| US CBO: Est. $75b Sept Federal Govt Surplus Vs -$63b Yr Ago Posted: 05 Oct 2012 11:30 AM PDT –Sees FY2012 Deficit Of -$1.1 Trln Vs -$1.3 Trln A Year Ago WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following are excerpts from the Congressional Budget Office’s Monthly Budget Review published Friday: The federal budget deficit was about $1.1 trillion in fiscal year 2012, CBO estimates, approximately $200 billion less than the shortfall recorded in 2011. At 7.0 percent of gross domestic product, the 2012 deficit was down from 8.7 percent in 2011 and 9.0 percent in 2010 but greater than in any year between 1947 and 2008. The estimated 2012 total reflects the shift of some payments from fiscal year 2012 into fiscal year 2011 (that is, from October 2011 to September 2011, because October 1 fell on a weekend); without that timing shift, the deficit in 2012 would have been about $30 billion higher. CBO’s deficit estimate is based on data from the Daily Treasury Statements; the Treasury Department will report the actual deficit for fiscal year 2012 later this month. The Treasury reported a deficit of $191 billion for August, $1 billion less than the amount CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. The Treasury recorded a surplus of $75 billion in September 2012, CBO estimates, in contrast with the $63 billion deficit incurred in the same month last year. Shifts in the timing of certain payments influenced the results in both years: Payments totaling $31 billion were shifted from October 2011 to September 2011, while payments totaling $58 billion were shifted from September 2012 to August 2012. Adjusted for those timing shifts, the surplus in September 2012 would have been $17 billion, in contrast with a deficit of $32 billion in September 2011. Adjusted for timing shifts, outlays last month would have been $26 billion (or 10 percent) less than the amount recorded in September of last year, CBO estimates. Net payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were $7 billion lower than in the same month last year, because the government did not provide cash infusions to the two entities this September. The government recorded receipts of $7 billion in September from the sale of stock in American International Group; no such sale occurred in September 2011. Outlays for unemployment benefits were $6 billion lower in September than they were a year ago. Adjusted for the effects of shifts in the timing of some payments, spending for military activities also declined, by $5 billion, largely because of smaller payments to contractors for goods and services. In contrast, spending for Social Security benefits was $4 billion higher in September 2012 than in September 2011. Receipts this September were about $23 billion (or 9 percent) higher than those in September 2011, CBO estimates. Net receipts from the corporate income tax rose by $17 billion (or 44 percent), reflecting higher quarterly tax payments. Net receipts from individual income and payroll taxes rose by $5 billion (or 3 percent). Withheld receipts from those sources fell by $1 billion, but they would have risen if not for the effects of the calendar: September 2012 had two fewer business days than September 2011. Nonwithheld receipts of individual income and payroll taxes, mainly quarterly estimated payments of 2012 taxes, rose by $3 billion (or 6 percent). And, together, changes in refunds of individual income taxes and in collections of payroll taxes for unemployment insurance boosted receipts by $2 billion. The federal deficit was just under $1.1 trillion in 2012, CBO estimates, $207 billion lower than the 2011 deficit and $38 billion less than the agency projected in August. Outlays appear to have been $23 billion lower and revenues $15 billion higher than CBO expected. ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$,M$$CR$] |
| CIC President says China on ‘optimistic track’ Posted: 05 Oct 2012 11:00 AM PDT - Hard landing not ‘base case scenario’
- Growth to be driven by urbanization
- Gao Xiqing spoke in NYC
Urbanization? More urbanization? Are they putting nicotine in the air pollution over there? |
| The BRIC-master still high on China Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:50 AM PDT Goldman’s Jim O’Neill says China to drive BRIC stockmarket gains in 2013, which could be as high as 20%. He says China is focused on reform and ‘quality’ growth (on BBG). The Shanghai Composite has been closed all week and is down 4.2% this year and 68% from the 2007 high. |
| Fed’s Duke: Fed to Use ‘All Policy Tools’ to Support Recovery Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:50 AM PDT –Vacant,Distressed US Properties at Extraordinary Level By Claudia Hirsch NEW YORK (MNI) – Federal Reserve Board Governor Elizabeth Duke Friday said that in the wake of the U.S. housing crisis, certain areas with high residential-property vacancy rates will require government intervention to heal. An “unprecedented volume of foreclosures” has “left us with an extraordinary level of vacant and distressed properties,” Duke told a luncheon audience at a distressed residential real estate conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “In order to see the robust economic recovery we all want, we need to deal effectively with the large volume of vacant and distressed properties throughout the country,” she said. “Certainly, different housing markets will recover in different ways and at different paces,” Duke added. “In some areas, the private market will lead the way, while in others, government will have to use precious resources wisely to catalyze recovery.” For its part, “I can assure you the Federal Reserve System will continue to support recovery through the use of all its policy tools and research capacity,” she said. The costs of such solutions must be weighed against the “costs of doing nothing,” she said, and pointed to demolition and conversion costs that taxpayers may ultimately bear. But Duke also noted “signs of improvement” in U.S. housing conditions this year, including rising home prices that have moved a “noticeable number of underwater households … from negative equity to positive equity.” Still, she cautioned that “these struggling high-vacancy areas provide evidence of the hard work that remains.” For-sale vacancies, however, are only one part of total vacancy volume, she said. “Many vacant homes are not on the market at all,” Duke said, and noted those in the foreclosure process and bank-owned homes not yet for sale, as well as those vacant for reasons unrelated to foreclosure. “The stock of non-seasonal homes held off market is nearly two and a half times as large as the for-sale vacant stock,” she said. This component of vacancies has not declined “at all” in the past year, she added. The Fed governor said there is “no one-size-fits-all” solution to the vacancy conundrum. Neighborhood stabilization efforts must take different forms. In what she called “housing boom” areas – metropolitan areas where there are long-term vacancies among relatively newly built homes, and where median incomes, home values and education levels are higher – a useful solution could include conversions to rental units, especially as the rental market tightens. In these areas, notably Phoenix, there are signs of investor purchases that are resulting in more rental stock, she said. But Duke cautioned against “aggressive” investor activity that could “crowd out potential homeowners, especially low- to moderate-income households.” She praised government programs that offer a “first look” window of time during which only non-investors can bid on properties. Turning to Baltimore, a “low demand” areas of high long-term vacancy rates, Duke cheered the city’s initiative that includes an array of approaches, including “targeted housing code enforcement to foster redevelopment,” homebuyer incentives and, in certain hardest-hit communities, demolition. She also said that tighter, more prudent mortgage-lending standards should not “unnecessarily dampen the housing recovery and disproportionately affect creditworthy low-income and minority homebuyers.” ** MNI New York Newsroom: 212-669-6430 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MMUFE$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$$AG$,M$$CR$] |
| Rajoy: Spain has not taken a decision yet on Bailout–BBG Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:35 AM PDT - Spain needs to consider all the conditions
- Any decision will be based on the best interests of Spain
EUR/USD slightly lower on the headlines. |
| AUD/USD falls below 1.02 Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:29 AM PDT Relentless selling. Stops seen below 1.0190 but some demand mixed in at Wednesday’s low (1.0182). It’s been a nice run to the downside but it’s looking a little bit one-sided. China is back after a week of holidays tomorrow and post-Golden Week is generally a good time for risk assets. |
| Friday on my mind Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:15 AM PDT |
| Fed’s Duke: US has extraordinary amount of vacant and distressed properties Posted: 05 Oct 2012 10:02 AM PDT - In order to see robust recovery, must deal with large level of vacant homes
- Private investors buying foreclosed properties to rent may crowd out some homeowners (Not your job to worry about that, sweetheart)
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