Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• CHINA DATA: October trade data from customs:
• ForexLive North American wrap: Kiss and make up already
• CFTC weekly data shows jump in euro shorts
• White House:Obama Threatens Veto of High-Inc Tax Cuts Extend
• White House:Obama Threatens Veto of High-Income Bush Tax Cuts
• The best trade this week was short NZD/JPY
• US DATA: HAMP completed nearly 14,000 permanent……
• OECD: Canada to lead G7 growth through 2062
• Geithner to stay!
• US Fiscal CliffWatch: Obama, Hill To Begin Talks Next Week
• Obama: Will Only Accept Balanced Approach To Cutting Deficit
• Six signs that a turnaround in sentiment is coming
• This market is detached from reality
• Margeret Thatcher on socialism (small s)
• Mr Market has lost that lovin’ feeling
• US Credit Mkts Week Ahead: Tactically Lighten Up On Tsy Longs
• Obama doubles down on $250,000 as rich
• Top 10 things you can’t prove but people believe anyway
• USD/JPY hangs in the balance
• Copper doing what it’s supposed to do

CHINA DATA: October trade data from customs: Posted: 09 Nov 2012 06:20 PM PST CHINA DATA: October trade data from customs: OCT EXPORTS +11.6% Y/Y VS MNI MEDIAN +9.0% Y/Y OCT IMPORTS +2.4% Y/Y VS MNI MEDIAN +3.0% Y/Y OCT TRADE SURPLUS $31.99 BLN VS MNI MEDIAN $26.9 BLN YTD TRADE SURPLUS +$180.23 BN VS +$126.8 BN JAN-OCT 11 JAN-OCT EXPORTS +7.8% Y/Y; IMPORTS +4.6% Y/Y

ForexLive North American wrap: Kiss and make up already Posted: 09 Nov 2012 01:22 PM PST Obama, Boehner spar over tax hikes U Mich consumer sentiment 84.9 vs 83.0 exp US wholesale sales +2.0% vs +1.1% exp US Oct import prices +0.5% vs 0.0% exp Geithner to quit after fiscal cliff resolved Reuters poll sees Canadian house prices down 10% ECB's Coeure: Will take action in medium term if inflation arises Weekly CFTC positions S&P 500 +0.15% to 1379, down 2.4% on the week USD leads, JPY lags. Everything was going just fine until the politicians opened their mouths. Sentiment was at the best levels of the day until Obama and Boehner talked about how they will resolve the fiscal cliff. The tone was as good as could be expected but the market wants to see them holding hands, frolicking in the meadows, evidently. EUR/USD slumped in European trading then ran through stops at 1.27 as US trading got under way. The pair found a footing at 1.2689 and then rebounded into a tight range around 1.2710. Cable was a hurting currency, falling more than a full cent since the beginning of European trading. It snapped back to 1.5940 from a test of 1.5900 in early US trading but it was a headfake, eventually slumping to 1.5887. Yen crosses had a better tone in US trading and USD/JPY rebounded to 79.50 from 79.09. USD/CAD hit a three-month high of 1.0030 but the gains quickly evaporated due to the undying pull of parity. Gold $1731, oil $86.06. Weekly close in the S&P 500 fractionally below 200-dma.

CFTC weekly data shows jump in euro shorts Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:35 PM PST If there is one thing the speculative foreign exchange market likes to do, it’s sell euros. From the weekly Commitments of Traders report (as of the close on Tuesday). EUR short 67K vs 58K prior JPY short 40K vs 37K prior AUD long 60K vs 52K prior CAD long 75K vs 79K prior NZD long 19K vs 17K prior GBP long 19K vs 23K prior All the price action this week came after Tuesday so it’s not the most up-to-date read on sentiment.

White House:Obama Threatens Veto of High-Inc Tax Cuts Extend Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:30 PM PST –Retransmitting 15:25 ET Story, Clarifying Headline By Kasra Kangarloo WASHINGTON (MNI) – White House press secretary Jay Carney Friday promised that any bill extending the Bush-era tax rates for high income earners would be vetoed by President Barack Obama. “The president would veto any bill that extends the bush era tax cuts for the top two percent of wage earners for this country,” Carney said during his regular news briefing at the White House. House Speaker John Boehner said in a press conference earlier that he would not accept any increase in tax rates on any earners, though he mentioned that he was open to new revenues produced by reform of the tax code. When asked if such revenue would be acceptable to the president in exchange for an extension of Bush-era tax rates on all earners, Carney was again emphatic that the president would not sign the bill. “Limiting deductions for higher earners would certainly be part of the conversation, but if Bush-era tax rates on the highest earners are extended the president will not sign it,” Carney said. The so-called “fiscal cliff” — a combination of budget cuts agreed to in the wake of the 2011 debt-ceiling negotations and an expiration of the Bush-era tax rates on all income levels — has prompted what could be a months-long series of negotiations between the Congress and the White House. Based on comments by Carney, it appeared that rates on high income earners are the proverbial “line in the sand” for the president, potentially setting the course for a long, heated round of negotiations over everything under the fiscal sun — sweeping reform of the tax code, changes to major entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, defense spending, and corporate and income tax rates. Carney also mentioned that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner would retain his position until at least Inauguration Day and would be involved in the budget negotiations. – Kasra Kangarloo is a Washington reporter for Need to Know News ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

White House:Obama Threatens Veto of High-Income Bush Tax Cuts Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:30 PM PST By Kasra Kangarloo WASHINGTON (MNI) – White House press secretary Jay Carney Friday promised that any bill extending the Bush-era tax rates for high income earners would be vetoed by President Barack Obama. “The president would veto any bill that extends the bush era tax cuts for the top two percent of wage earners for this country,” Carney said during his regular news briefing at the White House. House Speaker John Boehner said in a press conference earlier that he would not accept any increase in tax rates on any earners, though he mentioned that he was open to new revenues produced by reform of the tax code. When asked if such revenue would be acceptable to the president in exchange for an extension of Bush-era tax rates on all earners, Carney was again emphatic that the president would not sign the bill. “Limiting deductions for higher earners would certainly be part of the conversation, but if Bush-era tax rates on the highest earners are extended the president will not sign it,” Carney said. The so-called “fiscal cliff” — a combination of budget cuts agreed to in the wake of the 2011 debt-ceiling negotations and an expiration of the Bush-era tax rates on all income levels — has prompted what could be a months-long series of negotiations between the Congress and the White House. Based on comments by Carney, it appeared that rates on high income earners are the proverbial “line in the sand” for the president, potentially setting the course for a long, heated round of negotiations over everything under the fiscal sun — sweeping reform of the tax code, changes to major entitlement programs such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, defense spending, and corporate and income tax rates. Carney also mentioned that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner would retain his position until at least Inauguration Day and would be involved in the budget negotiations. – Kasra Kangarloo is a Washington reporter for Need to Know News ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

The best trade this week was short NZD/JPY Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:25 PM PST Short NZD/JPY was the biggest percentage mover on the week, down 2.5%. In terms of pips it was EUR/JPY, down 223 on the week. Looking at the daily NZD/JPY chart, this week has been a negative setback but certainly not devastating. The 200-day moving average halted today’s losses and the pair remains in an uptrending channel that has surpassed the 61.8% retracement.

US DATA: HAMP completed nearly 14,000 permanent…… Posted: 09 Nov 2012 12:10 PM PST US DATA: HAMP completed nearly 14,000 permanent mortgage modification in Sept vs 17,000 in August. See MNI Main wire.

OECD: Canada to lead G7 growth through 2062 Posted: 09 Nov 2012 11:37 AM PST Those jokers think they can forecast worldwide growth 50 years from now but I’ll give ‘em a pass because I like what they’re saying. Hmmmmmm, to play Bryan Adams, Nickelback or Avril Lavigne? Nah, let’s go with a little Quebec content because for Montreal’s wicked-corrupt mayor who was forced out yesterday.

Geithner to stay! Posted: 09 Nov 2012 11:31 AM PST Through the fiscal cliff negotiations. He will then depart stage-left. Meanwhile, Obama continues his chest pounding, threatening to veto any bill that extends all the Bush tax cuts. What we have here is a recipe for risk aversion, folks. America, in its wisdom, has elected a House of Representatives dead-set against tax rate hikes and a president dead set on raising them.Both sides claim a mandate. Let’s get ready to rumble!

US Fiscal CliffWatch: Obama, Hill To Begin Talks Next Week Posted: 09 Nov 2012 11:30 AM PST –First Post-Election Vibes Are Positive, But Any Deal Is Long Way Off –President Obama: ‘I’m Open To Compromise. I’m Open To New Ideas’ –House Speaker Boehner: Open To New Revenues, But Not Tax Rate Hikes –CBO Report Says Going Over Fiscal Cliff Would Cause Recession –Ex Fed Chiefs Greenspan, Volcker To Address Fiscal Cliff Next Friday By John Shaw WASHINGTON (MNI) – President Obama said Friday he will host congressional leaders next week to begin talks on a plan to avert the fiscal cliff and to put in place a major deficit reduction package. Speaking at the White House several days after winning his re-election for a second term, Obama spoke in conciliatory terms but also with the confidence of having secured a difficult re-election. “It’s time to get back to work and there is plenty of work to do,” Obama said. The president repeated his insistence that any deficit reduction package be “balanced” with both spending cuts and revenue increases. “We can’t just cut our way to prosperity,” Obama said, arguing that tax increases for the wealthy must be part of a final agreement. But the president also struck a conciliatory note. “I’m open to compromise. I’m open to new ideas,” he said. Earlier Friday, House Speaker John Boehner said it’s essential for Congress and Obama to find a way to avert the fiscal cliff. At a briefing, Boehner repeated that he opposes increasing tax rates as part of a deficit reduction package, adding that he is waiting for new proposals from the president. (Obama said he is waiting to hear new ideas from Boehner). “It’s important for us to come to an agreement,” Boehner said, referring to the fiscal cliff. “Everything on the revenue side and on the spending side has to be on the table,” he said. The Speaker said he is open to new revenues as long as they are generated by tax reform which spurs economic growth. He said that tax reform and entitlement reform are critical to a long-term deficit reduction agreement that should be reached next year. Boehner has said Congress should pass a “down payment” on deficit reduction this year, but declined to say how large a package he would like to pass and how this package would relate to efforts to avert the fiscal cliff. Since the Tuesday election, Obama, Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid have all signaled they are ready to try to negotiate a budget deal. “The election’s over and we have enormous challenges ahead of us right here, and we have to sit down and got to work on it now, not wait,” Reid said Wednesday. Reid said wide-ranging fiscal talks should begin immediately. “I’m not for kicking the can down the road. I think we’ve done that far too much. I think we know what the issue is. We need to solve that issue,” he said. Reid, a former amateur boxer, referred to his old avocation as he reflected on the way ahead for Congress and the White House. “I’m a better fighter than a dancer,” he said, but added “it’s better to dance than to fight. It’s better to work together.” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, in several statements this week, has indicated that he is more inclined to fight than to dance, at least for right now. “The voters have not endorsed the failures or excesses of the President’s first term, they have simply given him more time to finish the job they asked him to do together with a Congress that restored balance to Washington after two years of one party control,” McConnell said. The Senate GOP leader said the President should find a way to avert the fiscal cliff “and when that is behind us, work with us to reform the tax code and our broken entitlement system.” Budget experts agree that Obama and Boehner will be the pivotal players in the coming fiscal talks. In a pre-election interview with a Des Moines newspaper, Obama said he was “absolutely confident” that if re-elected he would be able to secure a sweeping $4 trillion deficit reduction agreement. Obama told the paper the fiscal cliff provides a “forcing mechanism” to bring both sides to the negotiating table. In the interview, Obama said he believes a big deficit deal can be reached in the first six months of 2013. “It will probably be messy. It won’t be pleasant. But I am absolutely confident that we can get what is the equivalent of the grand bargain that essentially I’ve been offering to the Republicans for a very long time,” he said. “We can credibly meet the target that the Bowles-Simpson Commission established of $4 trillion in deficit reduction and even more in the out-years,” the president said. In other fiscal cliff related developments, the Congressional Budget Office said Thursday that if the nation goes over the fiscal cliff it will cause the American economy to contract by 0.5 percent in 2013. The CBO said that if all the fiscal cliff contraction occurs as is scheduled, real GDP in 2013, as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013, will drop by 0.5 percent. This, the CBO said, reflects a “decline in the first half of the year and renewed growth at a modest pace later in the year.” The CBO said this level of contraction would cause unemployment to rise to 9,1% in the fourth quarter of 2013. But the CBO report said the U.S. could face a major crisis if it merely suspends the fiscal cliff policies and does nothing to scale back the deficit. Finally, various think tanks will be holding fiscal cliff related conferences over the coming weeks. Next Friday, for example, the Peter G. Peterson Foundation is hosting a fiscal cliff conference in which the key speakers will be former Federal Reserve Board Committee chairmen Alan Greenspan and Paul Volker as well as Erskine Bowles and Alan Simpson, the co-chairmen of the National Fiscal Commission. ** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 ** –email: jshaw@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MC$$$$,MFU$$$,MGU$$$]

Obama: Will Only Accept Balanced Approach To Cutting Deficit Posted: 09 Nov 2012 11:20 AM PST –Top Priority Has To Be Growth And Jobs By Brai Odion-Esene WASHINGTON (MNI) – President Barack Obama Friday declared his receptiveness to any and all options to address the nation’s immediate and long-term fiscal woes, but made clear he will not back a plan that does not take a balanced approach to cutting the nation’s ballooning deficits. “The American people voted for action, not politics as usual,” Obama said in an address from the stately East Room of the White House. “They’re looking for common sense. Most of all, they want action,” he added, and vowed; “I intend to deliver for them in my second term, and I expect to find willing partners in both parties to make that happen.” And in this spirit of bipartisanship, Obama announced that he has invited congressional leaders from both parties to the White House next week “so we can start to build consensus around the challenges that we can only solve together.” He added that business, civic, and labor leaders will also be brought to the capital and tapped for their ideas on how to boost the economy. “Our top priority has to be jobs and growth,” the president said. However, he stressed, the country cannot cut its way to prosperity. “If we are serious about reducing the deficit, we have to combine spending cuts with revenue,” Obama said, “and that means asking the wealthiest Americans to pay a little more in taxes.” “That’s how we can reduce the deficit while still making the investments we need to build a strong middle class, and a strong economy,” he argued. Obama has already out forward a plan that would cut the nation’s deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade, but he assured that he is not wedded to the details of the plan, and is open to compromise as well as new ideas. And in declaring his commitment to solving to the country’s fiscal challenges, Obama nevertheless said he will not accept any plan that is not balanced. Students, seniors and middle class families will not be asked to bear the burden of paying down the deficit while the wealthy avoid paying “a dime more” in taxes, he said, Obama warned that the work of policymakers is made “that more urgent” because at the end of the year they face a series of deadlines that require major decisions about how to pay down the deficit, decisions that Obama said will have a huge impact on the economy. He noted that last year he worked with Democrats and Republicans to cut $1 trillion-worth of government spending. “I intend to work with both parties to do more,” Obama vowed. This will include reforms to lower the cost of healthcare, while strengthening programs like Medicare and Medicaid for the long term. The results of Tuesday’s elections show that the majority of Americans agree with his approach, Obama said, with the task now being to get a majority on Capitol Hill to agree with the American people. “I believe we can get that majority,” he said. Earlier Friday during a press briefing, House Speaker John Boehner told reporters he is open to new revenues as long as they are generated by tax reform which spurs economic growth. “Everything on the revenue side and on the spending side has to be on the table,” Boehner said. Obama said he looks forward to hearing Boehner’s ideas next week. In the immediate term, Obama noted that if lawmakers do not agree on a deficit reduction package by the end of this year: “everybody’s taxes will automatically go up on January 1st.” “Now, fortunately, we shouldn’t need long negotiations or drama to solve that part of the problem,” Obama said. While both parties continue to disagree over whether or not to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans, Obama said neither side wants to see tax bill for those making under $250,000 go up. “So let’s not wait,” he said, “even as we’re negotiating a broader deficit reduction package, let’s extend the middle-class tax cuts right now.” Doing so would immediately take a massive amount of economic uncertainty off the table — which will lead to new jobs and faster growth, Obama predicted. The Senate has already passed such a bill, he noted, adding that he would sign it right away once the Republican-controlled House follows suit. The American people, Obama warned, will not stand for continued dysfunction in Washington. “They won’t tolerate politicians who view compromise as a dirty word,” he said. ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** –email: besene@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$U$$$,MC$$$$,MT$$$$,MFU$$$,MGU$$$]

Six signs that a turnaround in sentiment is coming Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:58 AM PST They might disagree but Obama and Boehner sound civil US economic data is getting better China engineered a soft landing The copper and AUD/JPY charts Periphery yields remain within striking distance of the 6-month lows It wasn’t pretty but Greece passed the austerity budget

This market is detached from reality Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:46 AM PST Did anyone out there really believe Obama was going to step up to the microphone and say: Yeah… remember that tax hike on the rich that I staked my career on and alienated my donors with? …just kidding. I mean, Republicans in the House can kick and scream enough to stop it but it’s not like Obama was going to give up today. I expected some emotion trading after the election but it’s getting a bit stale. Hopefully cooler heads can return after the weekend — the USA has prospered under more trying circumstances than a Democratic president.

Margeret Thatcher on socialism (small s) Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:40 AM PST Good old Maggie!! Countries like the US and France could do with a good dose of reality!!! If those numbnuts in Labour ever re-gain power in the UK I’m outta here……

Mr Market has lost that lovin’ feeling Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:32 AM PST The minute Obama threw out the old $250,00 and above benchmark for raising tax rates, the market went into reverse. Hey Barry, they’re just not that into you.

US Credit Mkts Week Ahead: Tactically Lighten Up On Tsy Longs Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:20 AM PST By Joe Plocek & Alyce Andres-Frantz WASHINGTON (MNI) – The U.S. Treasuries enter next week in familiar territory with key resistance near, which bodes well for the difficult task of tactically lightening up on long, many agreed. That resistance band in Treasury 10-year notes lies between 1.54% -1.60%. In the 5-year note that zone lies between 0.60-0.633% and on the 30-year bond it is closer to 2.65%. This move towards the resistance bands in Treasuries comes after a 500 point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial since the U.S. Presidential election results late Tuesday which squarely placed the bond market in overbought and stocks oversold conditions. From a tactical standpoint, “we recommend reducing longs or getting flat here, and for those bearishly inclined these are good areas to go short as stops can be nearby and known,” according to Bill O’Donnell head of interest rate research and strategy at RBS. “Bigger picture we see rates as still low for longer, but even in that regime on a tactical basis one must try to take advantage of the shorter term technical picture and the movements within the range, which is what we are seeking to do with momentum getting extended here,” O’Donnell said. Mike Krauss, chief technician at JP Morgan also was focused on a large cluster of medium term and shorter term resistance parameters in the 1.54-1.60% area on cash 10Y. A failure at those levels next week would call for “a new set of short strategies.” Meanwhile, Krauss has been “watching the 1.30-1.36% resistance area in cash 10-year German Bunds as a potential medium term barrier. The key here is “lightening up” on longs, not going full throttle short Treasuries in the current environment. Reason being, Europe. On Wednesday, the European Commission slashed its forecast for German economic growth next year to 0.8% from 1.7%, warning of weakness among key trading partners and debt crisis-related uncertainty. This warning comes as the spread between Spain and Germany trades at six week wides and while European short rates on five sovereign nation’s 2-year notes yields trade negative. Those include Switzerland, Denmark, Germany, Finland and Austria. The important takeaway from this discussion is that this time it really is different–it’s not about the “Grexit” anymore, but rather the economy – meaning the German economy. Key events in the EU next week include: - Nov 11 Greek parliament votes on 2013 Budget - Nov 11 Armistice day holiday - Nov 12 Eurogroup meeting to discuss Greek program further - Nov 12 German Merkel in Portugal - Nov 12 Italy debt chief Cannata speaks in Rome - Nov 12 Spain Economy Minister De Guindos speaks at European parliment - Nov 13 EcoFin meeting - Nov 13 Portugal Autumn economic bulletin - Nov 14 Spain’s main labor unions CCOO and UGT call general stike - Nov 14 Portuguese CGTP union calls for a strike - Nov 14 ECB start of reserve maintenance period - Nov 14 Italy mid-month BTP bond auctions - Nov 15 Eurozone Q3 advanced GDP - Nov 15 Italy T-bill redemption for E5.0bln - Nov 16 Date Greece will run out of cash - Nov 16 Greece T-bill redemption for E4.063bln The lighten up on Treasury longs at resistance, buy dip scenario comes after the market showed its preference for U.S. debt this week, especially the 30-year where foreign accounts though indirect bids set up for the fiscal cliff and hedging for more EU woes. Likewise, the Treasury market exits the week with flatteners in place as part of the plan to play out the fiscal cliff and European troubles. Sources also noted that near term seasonals tend to favor flattening in the days following quarterly refundings. This is particularly true on 10/30Y flatteners which tend to flatten by 3-4 bps in a short time span. Meanwhile, strategists at Barclays said “As the uncertainty over the negotiations lingers, Treasuries should continue to rally and the curve flatten.” The coming week is shortened by the Veterans Day holiday on Monday and contains data that could send false signals and a continuing fascination with the disposition of the fiscal cliff, thus the most likely outcome for markets is range-trade for now sources said. BNP’s economists wrote that “the election preserved the status quo, but the dynamic in Washington, D.C. will change. Neither side can claim a mandate.” Fiscal policy remains “key to keeping the recovery on track.” Jefferies economist Ward McCarthy agrees that the fiscal cliff is important ahead, and says negotiations probably will turn into “a sequence of unsettling and frustrating events with the debt ceiling as the most immediate catalyst.” He likens the fiscal cliff to water torture. In a peculiarity of the calendar, the next big Treasury supply announcement is Nov. 21, with auctions on the last days of the month. Thus there is no important supply immediately ahead. Economic data might begin to be impacted by Hurricane Sandy and they should be interpreted very carefully. The most likely data impacted are unemployment claims (possibly higher) and sales and manufacturing (lower). Economists look for modest industrial data and warn that if there is a spike in claims they will discount it. RBC’s economists said retail sales and CPI are key. October sales should “make a modest showing” but with a negative headline “on the back of the slowing in car sales that was in part attributed to Hurricane Sandy.” October CPI should show a “slowing in energy prices coupled with continued discounting in and around the kick-off to holiday shopping” so that the headline and core both print just +0.1%. The Fed has scheduled five buys and only one sale in Treasuries before the calendar winds down around Thanksgiving. Fed appearances include Vice Chair Yellen outlining communications on Tuesday and three regional Fed officials on the docket for Thursday. Chairman Bernanke attends a housing event Thursday and is tentatively going to speak in New York on the outlook at the Economic Club on November 20. Market participants await this last speech. A calendar of upcoming U.S. market events is below: 12-Nov-12 —- US Veterans Day (markets closed) 13-Nov US Congress reconvenes. 13-Nov NFIB index 13-Nov-12 1000 Nov-12 IBD/TIPP Econ Optimism Index Fed to buy Tsys 2018-20, est $4.25-5.25b 11am UST announces 4wk 11.30am UST auctions 3m,6m 13-Nov-12 1400 Oct-12 Treasury Statement 3.30pm Fed VC Yellen speech at Berkeley on Fed communics 14-Nov-12 0700 09-Nov MBA Mortgage Application Index 14-Nov-12 0745 10-Nov ICSC-Goldman Store Sales 14-Nov-12 0830 Oct-12 Producer Price Index, est +0.1%/+0.1% 14-Nov-12 0830 Oct-12 Retail & Food Sales, est +0.3%/+0.6% 14-Nov-12 0855 10-Nov Redbook Average 14-Nov-12 1000 Sep-12 Business Inventories Fed to setll Tsys in 2015, est $7-8b 11.30am UST auctions 4wk,52wk. 14-Nov-12 1400 — FOMC Meeting Minutes from Oct 23-24 2.30pm Senate Banking Comm hearing on Basel rules 8.15pm SF Fed Pres Williams speech, Ctr for Pacific Rim 15-Nov-12 0830 10-Nov Jobless Claims 15-Nov-12 0830 Oct-12 Consumer Price Index, est +0.1%/+0.2%. 15-Nov-12 0830 Nov-12 NY Fed Empire State Survey 15-Nov-12 0945 11-Nov Bloomberg Comfort Index 15-Nov-12 1000 Nov-12 Phila Fed Survey Fed to buy Tsys in 2036-42, est $1.75-2.25b 15-Nov-12 1030 09-Nov EIA Natural Gas Storage 15-Nov-12 1.40pm Chicago Fed Pres Evans welcome remarks at bank conf 15-Nov-12 1100 09-Nov EIA Crude Oil Stocks 11am UST announces 3/6m and 10y TIPS. 12.30pm CEA’s Krueger speech at Econ Club Washington 1.20pm Bernanke speech on hsg at HOPE Atlanta 15-Nov 1400/0900 Richmond Fed Pres Lacker at West Va Economic Outlk 15-Nov 1945/1445 Dallas Fed Pres Fisher speech at State of West conf 15-Nov —— Cato Inst meeting, Philly Fed’s Plosser 15-Nov-12 1630 05-Nov Money Supply (M2) 16-Nov-12 0900 Sep-12 Tsy Intl Capital System 16-Nov-12 0915 Oct-12 Industrial Prodn, Cap Utiliz, est +0.2% IP 16-Nov-12 1000 3Q-12 E-Commerce Fed to buy Tsys in 2021-22 for $4.25-5.25b 4.20pm Atlanta Fed Pres Lockhart speech, VA investing conf ** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 ** –email: aandres@mni-news.com [TOPICS: MAUDS$,M$U$$$,MC$$$$]

Obama doubles down on $250,000 as rich Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:14 AM PST Says not wedded to every aspect of his fiscal plan but insists on tax hikes for those making over $250,000. There had been hope that he would perhaps target higher income levels than $250,000, which many two-income couples in US earn and are hardly swimming in dough. Stocks have shed some gains and the EUR/USD slipped.

Top 10 things you can’t prove but people believe anyway Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:11 AM PST I believe in 9 out of 10 implicitly I’m only a bit iffy on number  8 I know number 10 as absolute fact (my boss is a alien from the planet Ur-anus. Quite apt I thought) Is there something you don’t believe in?

USD/JPY hangs in the balance Posted: 09 Nov 2012 10:05 AM PST Nomura is out with a recommendation to buy USD/JPY, targeting 82.00. Today’s doji star is a potential sign of a reversal  but the intraday break below 79.30 is a concern. Overall, if you were bullish on USD/JPY before, this is your chance to pick it up at a discount.

Copper doing what it’s supposed to do Posted: 09 Nov 2012 09:34 AM PST Copper has retreated to the uptrend that began more than a year ago. It’s typical for a chart to break out of a wedge and then retest the old levels like we see on the daily copper chart. The last time I wrote about copper was Oct 22 as it flashed warnings about the global economy. That day market the high water mark in a number of risk assets, including EUR/JPY. Overall, several assets are showing early signs of a turnaround today and copper is often among the first to turn. That said, if the uptrend support breaks, it may be time to reevaluate.

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