Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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• U.S. to overtake Saudi Arabia oil production by 2020, IEA says
• Let’s have a vote: Do you want bank recommendations posted on Forexlive?
• Greek debt agency official: Greece confident Tuesday’s EUR 5 bln t-bill auction to be fully funded
• Boris been buying aussie
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up +5 bps at 5.87%
• Italy’s Monti: Italy doesn’t plan to ask for bailout
• Has a new euro downtrend started?
• Fitch’s Riley: Significant concerns about Spain remain
• Former ECB’er Bini Smaghi: Greece needs more time
• Hey everybody, Morgan Stanley went long USD/JPY
• CHINA DATA: China end-Sep outstanding cny loans……
• CHINA DATA: China end-Oct M2 +14.1% y/y VS MNI…….
• Will Chinese consumers lead the world?
• Some USD/JPY order stuff…….
• Analysis: Talk of Snap Elections To Dominate Japan Markets
• Start of a new week, let’s have a new EUR/USD poll!!!
• GERMANY DATA: October WPI -0.6% m/m, +4.6% y/y; y/y..
• Little bit of EUR/GBP gossip
• EUR/USD ekes out marginal gains in Asia
• REPEAT-Schaeuble:Eurogroup Unlikely To Decide On Greek Aid Mon

U.S. to overtake Saudi Arabia oil production by 2020, IEA says Posted: 12 Nov 2012 02:05 AM PST Well I never…….

Let’s have a vote: Do you want bank recommendations posted on Forexlive? Posted: 12 Nov 2012 02:02 AM PST I’ll be honest, I don’t give a toss eitherway.

Greek debt agency official: Greece confident Tuesday’s EUR 5 bln t-bill auction to be fully funded Posted: 12 Nov 2012 01:59 AM PST Has discussed it with ECB. Did we ever really think the Greeks would be left hanging?  I’d be truly shocked if that were the case.

Boris been buying aussie Posted: 12 Nov 2012 01:48 AM PST Recently. Market has known for some time Russia would be adding aussie dollars to their reserve holdings. Talk has it that the Russian central bank has been seen buying aussie recently. Not sure of exact timing ie what ‘recently’ means exactly, but helps explain recent durability of the aussie. AUD/USD at session high 1.0429.

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up +5 bps at 5.87% Posted: 12 Nov 2012 01:35 AM PST EUR/USD struggling for clear direction so far this morning. At 1.2708 we’re pretty much back where we closed out Friday in North America.

Italy’s Monti: Italy doesn’t plan to ask for bailout Posted: 12 Nov 2012 01:25 AM PST Doesn’t contemplate using  ESM. Picking this up off twitter. Elsewhere Fitch’s Riley on Italy in his MNI interview: Italy is performing in line with our expectations To conduct review on Italy by year end Downward revision to Italy growth is a key concern Policy continuity post Italy election is a concern Italy vulnerable to potential re-contagion

Has a new euro downtrend started? Posted: 12 Nov 2012 01:13 AM PST Standard Chartered think so, targeting an eventual move to 1.15. They feel the ECB is getting closer to monetisation and euro-zone economy is weakening. Dow Jones reporting the banks’ strategist Steve Barrow saying ‘In short, has the euro started a journey that will lead to significant declines in coming months? We think the answer is ‘yes,’ he says’ I wish I could be so sure……. Who thinks Steve is right?

Fitch’s Riley: Significant concerns about Spain remain Posted: 12 Nov 2012 01:04 AM PST Yes indeedy. Interviewed by Market News. Size of Spain’s budget deficit a concern Spain decision on ESM aid will not affect rating

Former ECB’er Bini Smaghi: Greece needs more time Posted: 12 Nov 2012 12:54 AM PST Europe should extend Greek debt maturities

Hey everybody, Morgan Stanley went long USD/JPY Posted: 12 Nov 2012 12:50 AM PST On Friday at 79.15. The bank has an upside target of 84.00, stop at 78.15. I thought I’d pass it on. I know some of you are very fond of the US investment bank….

CHINA DATA: China end-Sep outstanding cny loans…… Posted: 12 Nov 2012 12:10 AM PST CHINA DATA: China end-Sep outstanding cny loans +15.9%; outstanding cny deposits +13.3%;

CHINA DATA: China end-Oct M2 +14.1% y/y VS MNI……. Posted: 12 Nov 2012 12:10 AM PST CHINA DATA: China end-Oct M2 +14.1% y/y VS MNI median +14.4% y/y; M1 +6.1% y/y; M0 +10.5% y/y.

Will Chinese consumers lead the world? Posted: 12 Nov 2012 12:05 AM PST Is that a serious question?

Some USD/JPY order stuff……. Posted: 11 Nov 2012 11:58 PM PST Buy orders seen layered 79.25 down to 79.00, sell stops below 79.00 and more through 78.90. Sell orders clustered 79.55/65, buy stops above 79.65.

Analysis: Talk of Snap Elections To Dominate Japan Markets Posted: 11 Nov 2012 11:50 PM PST By Yasuhiko Seki TOKYO (MNI) – Japanese financial market players will pay more attention to domestic political developments than other factors this week as talk of a snap election raises hopes of a more market-friendly government. The ruling Democratic Party of Japan and the main opposition parties — the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito — will hold a meeting of their policy chiefs on Monday to discuss the establishment of a national forum for social security reform, according to local media reports. The move forms part of key conditions for Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to dissolve the lower house of parliament and hold a snap general election, the Nikkei reported over the weekend. “From the viewpoint of financial markets and the economy, the worst case scenario for Japan will be that Noda stays in power,” said Mitsuru Saito, chief economist at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co. “A government, led by the LDP, will make a better administration than the one led by the DPJ.” Since the DPJ took power away from the LDP in 2009, the world has gone through two major slumps, first triggered by the collapse of Lehman brothers and then by the European sovereign debt crisis. During this period, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average has lost more than 16% while the yen hit a historical high of Y75.32 against the dollar on Oct. 30, 2011, striking a heavy blow to the Japanese economy. Noda has repeatedly said he wants to win parliamentary approval of a bill to allow issuance of deficit-financing bonds as well as lower-house electoral reform bills to address disparities in voter representation, before deciding on when to dissolve the lower house. As part of a three-party agreement with the opposition parties, Noda said in August that he would dissolve the lower house and call a general election “as soon as possible.” Later he said, “Once necessary conditions are fulfilled, I would decide on my own.” A recent survey by Nippon Television Network showed the support rating for Noda has fallen to 20.8%, the lowest since he took office in September 2011, raising chances for resign en masse or a diet dissolution. His predecessors Yukio Hatoyama and Naoto Kan stepped down after their approval ratings fell to below the key 20%-mark. While votes from middle-income earners led to a landslide lower house election win by the DPJ in 2009, financial market players did not like some DPJ policies that were taken as anti-market. Noda, as well as his predecessor Naoto Kan, has put a higher emphasis on rebuilding the nation’s finances through a sales hike over shoring up the economy’s growth potential. By contrast, the LDP’s Shinzo Abe, who has recently returned to the top party post after giving up his premiership five years ago due to poor heath, says he will try to boost the flagging economy before tackling the debt issue. “The best case scenario for Japanese financial markets would be to have a lower house dissolution before the end of this year and to have a market- and economy-friendly government, led by Abe,” said Masaru Hamasaki, chief strategist at Toyota Asset Management Co. “If this happens and is accompanied by a gradual weakening of the yen, the Nikkei 225 Stock Average may rise toward 9,500,” he said. FX strategists also seem to support an LDP-led government. “There is emerging speculation that Abe would tackle a strong yen more actively than the LDP-led government by putting pressure on the Bank of Japan to do more (easing),” said Kengo Suzuki, FX strategist at Mizuho Securities Co. Abe recently said the BOJ should continue to ease monetary policy until consumer inflation hits 3%. The year-on-year change in Japan’s consumer prices is expected by economists to remain around zero for the time being. “Thus the emergence of an LDP-led government should add some downward pressure on the yen, even though the yen is not likely to fall notably, given the likelihood that interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. would not widen sharply under the reelected Obama administration,” Suzuki said. President Obama beat Republican challenger Mitt Romney at last week’s election, securing a second term. Romney has repeatedly said that he would replace Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Bernanke’s term ends in January 2014. “Given the likelihood of the continuation of the current monetary policy stance by the Fed and uncertainties about the impact of fiscal cliff in the U.S., the yen will not depreciate beyond Y82 against the dollar before the end of this year,” Mizuho’s Suzuki said. JGB analysts also pay a close attention to the fate of the debt-financing bill in the Diet, with the failure to approve such a bill seen resulting in the suspension of government bond issuance from December. “The suspension of government bond issuance will initially help improve supply and demand conditions in the JGB market, leading bond yields to stay low,” Hamasaki said. “But this will erode the confidence in Japan’s ability to finance its huge budget spending and debt, thereby raising the risk for a spike in bond yields in the future,” he said. By the end of March 2012, the level of outstanding Japanese government bonds will total Y709 trillion, 148% of projected gross domestic product, while its outstanding long-term debt, including JGBs and municipal bonds, is expected to total Y940 trillion, 196% of projected GDP, according to an estimate by the Ministry of Finance. As a result, Japan will be one of the most heavily indebted industrialized nations, even dwarfing gross public debt held by Greece. Aside from the market perspective, analysts also are watchful of developments in Japan-China ties, which have deteriorated over the long-standing territorial dispute that flared up again this year. “If the person who let the deterioration in political and economic relationships between Japan and China happen were to go, it might help improve the battered relationships,” Kazumasa Yamaoka, chief strategist at GCI Research Institute, said, referring to Noda. As a result of growing anti-Japan protests in China, Toyota Motor Corp, for instance, saw its vehicle sales nearly halved in China in September and October, while other Japanese automakers also suffered from steep sales declines in these months. As the fallout from anti-Japan protests in China added to downside risks to Japan, the nation’s economy contracted 0.9% in the third quarter, or at an annualized rate of 3.5%, matching the median forecasts in a MNI survey, official data showed Monday. Japan’s economy marked the first contraction in three quarters, adding to the view that the world’s third-largest economy is slipping back into a recession. tokyo@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$A$$$,M$J$$$,MGJ$$$]

Start of a new week, let’s have a new EUR/USD poll!!! Posted: 11 Nov 2012 11:23 PM PST Yippeee!! Sit at 1.2708. What’ll we see first 1.2600 or 1.2800. Reason/s for choice always much appreciated, but not obligatory.

GERMANY DATA: October WPI -0.6% m/m, +4.6% y/y; y/y.. Posted: 11 Nov 2012 11:10 PM PST GERMANY DATA: October WPI -0.6% m/m, +4.6% y/y; September +4.2% y/y – Germany October WPI: solid fuels/oil products -3.0% m/m – Germany October WPI: ore/iron/steel/non-ferrous metals -0.4% m/m – Germany October WPI: grains/seeds/feed -1.1% m/m – Germany October WPI: fruits/vegetables/potatoes +0.7% m/m – Germany October WPI: data processing/communication -0.3% m/m – Germany October WPI: food/beverages/tobacco +0.3% m/m – Germany October WPI: household electrical items/TV/radio +0.2% m/m – See MNI’s Mainwire for more details

Little bit of EUR/GBP gossip Posted: 11 Nov 2012 11:09 PM PST Some scuttlebutt doing the rounds. Talk of LHS interest in EUR/GBP lined up for the 11:00 GMT fix (interest to sell the cross.)  Said to be related to dividend payments. Cross is presently at .7995 from the .8000 which greeted me. Take it for what you will, I’m not the biggest fan of fix rumours.  But at least you now know the talk’s out there.

EUR/USD ekes out marginal gains in Asia Posted: 11 Nov 2012 10:56 PM PST We’re up at 1.2733 from North American close Friday down around 1.2710. Greece managed to get its’ budget passed and there was some encouraging news out of China which I reported at the weekend (trade data/fiscal-infrastructure spending) and this has helped sentiment a little. Middle Eastern buying is already being reported (said to be responsible for pop to 1.2739 just now) Sell orders said to be clustered 1.2750/60. Downside,  buy orders seen clustered 1.2710 down to 1.2690. Talk of sell stops through both 1.2690 and 1.2680, take your pick. At writing, don’t really have gauge on where notable buy stops gathered.

REPEAT-Schaeuble:Eurogroup Unlikely To Decide On Greek Aid Mon Posted: 11 Nov 2012 10:40 PM PST BERLIN (MNI) – Eurozone finance ministers are unlikely to decide at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday whether to disburse a badly-needed E31.5 billion loan tranche to Greece, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a newspaper interview published Sunday. “At the moment it does not look like that we’ll get on Monday a finished, complete report [on Greece] by the troika” of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, Schaeuble told German weekly Welt am Sonntag (WamS). The minister remarked that he will also need the approval of the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, before being able to approve any further aid for Greece. Once the troika report on Greece has been released, “one cannot deny [the Bundestag] the right to assess, discuss and decide” about the next aid tranche for the country, he said. In other remarks, Schaeuble said a decision about fiscal aid for Cyprus will likely only be made next year. “The talks between the troika and Cyprus are advancing only very slowly,” he noted. Looking ahead, Schaeuble did not rule out that he might stay on as finance minister for another legislature should Chancellor Angela Merkel win the national elections next year. –Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$Y$$$,MT$$$$] –email: bwolfson@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$G$$$,MFG$$$]

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