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Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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ZEW: Prevailing recessionary developments in euro zone likely to be burden for economic growth in Germany for next six months

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 02:03 AM PST

  • Foreign trade, lack of confidence impact German economy

Portuguese Oct CPI falls to +0.3% m/m, +2.1% y/y

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 02:01 AM PST

From 0.6%m/m, +2.9% y/y in September

October HICP   0.1 %m/m, +2.1 % y/y  ( from +0.4%, +2.9%)

German November ZEW survey economic sentiment -15.7

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 02:01 AM PST

Weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of -9.8

Down from -11.5 in October.

EUR/USD marked lower in wake of data, presently at 1.2667.

IEA: Weak Global Growth Dampens Impact Of Oil Supply Disruptions

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

PARIS (MNI) – The International Energy Agency said Tuesday it has
revised down further its forecasts for global oil demand at the end of
this year and next year, while hiking projections for non-OPEC supply.

Waning demand growth and prospects for faster supply increases have
led traders “to cut their bullish bets on crude prices to lows unseen in
years,” the agency said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

“Judging from the record so far, 2012 may go down in oil history
not just as one of exceptionally frequent supply disruptions, but also
as one when no production shortfall seemed large enough to affect global
oil markets in a truly big way,” the IEA commented.

“Such apparent resilience, due in part to the sorry state of the
global economy, is somewhat misleading, however,” it added.

Reflecting weaker-than-expected economic expansion, the IEA cut its
projection for 4Q global demand by 300,000 barrels per day (b/d) to 90.1
mb/d, for a cumulative downward revision of 850 kb/d since June. Its
forecast for average demand next year was trimmed by 100 kb/d to 90.4
mb/d.

At the same time, projections for 4Q non-OPEC supply were revised
up by 200 kb/d to 53.8 mb/d and for next year by 100 kb/d to an average
of 54.1 mb/d.

As a result, the IEA trimmed its “call” on OPEC crude and/or stocks
in 4Q by 500 kb/d to 30.0 mb/d and for next year by 200 kb/d to an
average of 29.8 mb/d.

OPEC crude oil supply in October remained well above these “call”
projections, despite a decline of 30 kb/d to a nine-month low 31.15
mb/d. Supply disruptions in Nigeria offset a small upturn in Iranian
production after seven months of decline.

Non-OPEC production rebounded by 840 kb/d in October to 53.4 mb/d
after seasonal maintenance in the North Sea and Brazil, as well as
Hurricane Isaac in the US, reduced output to 52.6 mb/d in September.
Production in 4Q is expected to be 560 kb/d higher on year, roughly 190
kb/d above last month’s estimate. Non-OPEC supply is projected to rise
by 860 kb/d next year an average of 54.1 mb/d – 150 kb/d more than the
previous forecast.

Global oil supply thus rose 800 kb/d in October to 90.9 mb/d for a
2.0 mb/d gain on the year, with 80% of the increase coming from OPEC
crude and NGLs.

OECD total oil commercial inventories rose in September by a steep,
counter-seasonal 15.2 million barrels, extending six months of builds,
to 2,746 mb. Forward demand cover stood at 59.6 days, unchanged from
August. Preliminary data indicate OECD oil stocks rose by 5.5 mb in
October, the agency said.

“Relatively benign price outcomes should not be cause for
complacency,” the IEA cautioned. “Growing reliance on international
trade for product supply is spreading oil supply risk from the upstream
to the downstream. Increased product market integration means consumers
in all regions are increasingly exposed to local shortfalls in refining
or product distribution, even as they remain exposed to traditional
crude supply disruption risks.”

“This will be even more so when supply/demand product balances
start tightening again,” it warned.

- Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MI$$$$,MI$OI$,M$$CR$,MAUDS$]

EU Fin Mins: Tough Talks Ahead On European Banking Union

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

BRUSSELS (MNI) – There remains a lot of ground to cover before a
compromise on a Eurozone single banking supervisor can be reached in
December, Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg said on Tuesday.

“We cannot see a compromise with only the current modalities on the
table,” Borg told reporters on his way to the Ecofin meeting here,
adding that a “technical treaty change” would need to be considered.

The Swedish finance minister also suggested that the European
Central Bank may not be appropriate to house the single bank supervisor.

“The ECB could be the supervisor, but then we have to consider a
treaty change,” Borg said. “Either you must change the treaty so that it
is clear that every member is treated equitably or it will have to be
moved outside the ECB.”

Also speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Luxembourg Finance Minister
Luc Frieden said that “I think that the discussion today will be a very
difficult one.”

“We must not forget that banks are acting in the common market,”
Frieden continued. “The supervisor on the other hand – as it appears –
will only act in the Eurozone. That causes me very great concern. It
would of course be ideal if we could find a solution for the 27, but
that appears to unrealistic to me.”

Frieden also dampened expectations of a quick compromise, noting
that quality was far more important than speed in devising the ideal
regulatory environment for banks in Europe.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@mni-news.com –

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]

UK Analysis: New Home Prices Plunge In September

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

-Sep House Prices -0.2% m/m; +1.7% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Overall house prices posted a small monthly
decline in September although prices for new dwellings fell at their
fastest pace for more than two and half years.

Figures from National Statistics showed house prices fell a
seasonally adjusted 0.2% on the month in September and were up 1.7%
on the year, down from 1.9% in August.

Prices for new dwellings plunged 3.7% on the month, the largest
monthly fall since February 2010. Prices paid by first time buyers also
fell sharply by 0.7% on the month.

-London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK Analysis: Output Price Inflation Stable in October

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

-Oct Producer Output Prices +0.1% m/m; +2.5% y/y
-Oct Core Producer Output Prices +0.1% m/m; +1.4% y/y
-Oct Input Prices +0.4% m/m; +0.1% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Output price inflation remained stable in October as
increases tobacco and alcohol prices were offset by declines in petrol
product prices, figures from National Statistics showed Tuesday.

While input prices rose by a little more than expected the output
price figures were broadly as forecast and add little to the debate on
monetary policy. Overall output price inflation looks to have troughed
in July, but at 2.5% remains low by historical standards.

Output prices rose 0.1% on the month in October and were up 2.5%
on the year, unchanged from August. Analysts had expected a slightly
larger increase of 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year.

Core output prices were up 0.1% on the month and 1.4% on the year,
in line with the median forecast.

Tobacco and alcohol prices rose 0.5% on the month, while petroleum
product prices fell 0.4%.

Input prices rose 0.4% on the month in October and were up 0.1% on
the year. This was above the median forecast for a monthly drop of 0.1%
and fall of 0.5% on the year, although this is not a huge difference
given the erratic nature of the data.

Input prices were pushed up by higher fuel costs which rose 3.1% on
the month. There was also a 0.5% increase in imported parts and
equipment product prices.

Core input prices, which exclude food, beverages, tobacco and
petroleum products, weree up 0.1% on the month and down 0.3% on the
year on a seasonally adjusted basis.

–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK Analysis: Oct CPI Inflation At Highest For 5 Months

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

-Oct CPI +0.5% m/m; +2.7% y/y vs Sep +2.2% y/y;

LONDON (MNI) – Consumer price inflation bounced back in October to
its highest level for five months, pushed higher by tuition fees, food
and transport figures from National Statistics showed Tuesday.

While the rise in university tuition fees was flagged there has
been strong upward pressure from food prices as well as airfares and
second hand cars. Some of these effects could be seen as one-off,
although a rise in core inflation to 2.6%, the highest since December
2011, is another factor weighing against further monetary stimulus from
the Bank of England for now.

The BOE forecast CPI inflation to stand at 2.19% in Q4 as a whole
and this latest outturn makes this look too optimistic, especially as
utility prices push the CPI up over the coming months.

The CPI rose 0.5% on the month and was up 2.7% on the year in
October, up from 2.2% in September, the highest since May 2012. Analysts
had expected a smaller increase of 0.3% on the month and 2.4% on the
year.

Education added 0.32 percentage point to CPI inflation, due to a
rise in university tuition fees.

Food prices added 0.16 percentage point with National Statistics
citing the worst domestic yields for potatoes and carrots in living
memory having pushed up prices.

Transport prices added 0.08 percentage point, due to second-hand
cars and airfares.

The main downward contributions came from housing and household
services and recreation and culture which cut inflation by 0.06 and 0.05
percentage point respectively.

-London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Sep House Prices -0.2% m/m; +1.7% y/y…….

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

UK DATA: Sep House Prices -0.2% m/m; +1.7% y/y
-New Home Prices Plunge In September
————————————————————————
Overall house prices posted a small monthly decline in September
although prices for new dwellings fell at their fastest pace for more
than two and half years. Figures from National Statistics showed house
prices fell a seasonally adjusted 0.2% on the month in September and
were up 1.7% on the year, down from 1.9% in August. Prices for new
dwellings plunged 3.7% on the month, the largest monthly fall since
February 2010. Prices paid by first time buyers also fell sharply by
0.7% on the month.

UK DATA: Oct Producer Output Prices +0.1% m/m; +2.5%.

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

UK DATA: Oct Producer Output Prices +0.1% m/m; +2.5% y/y
-Oct Core Producer Output Prices +0.1% m/m; +1.4% y/y
-Oct Input Prices +0.4% m/m; +0.1% y/y
————————————————————————
Output price inflation remained stable in October as increases
tobacco and alcohol prices were offset by declines in petrol product
prices. While input prices rose by a little more than expected the
output price figures were broadly as forecast and add little to the
debate on monetary policy. Overall output price inflation looks to have
troughed in July, but at 2.5% remains low by historical standards.
Output prices rose 0.1% on the month in October and were up 2.5% on the
year, unchanged from August. Analysts had expected a slightly larger
increase of 0.2% on the month and 2.6% on the year. Core output prices
were up 0.1% on the month and 1.4% on the year, in line with the median
forecast.

UK October CPI +0.1% M/M, +2.7% Y/Y (wow!!!)

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:30 AM PST

The y/y increase is demonstrably stronger than Reuter’s median forecast of +2.3%.

Cable marked higher, up at 1.5895.

ONS says rise driven by university tuition fees, food and transport.

Elsewhere, October output prices rose +0.1% m/m, +2.5% y/y.  Core producer output prices +0.1%, +1.4% respectively. The core y/y increase highest since June.

Luxembourg Frieden: No Disagreement Between Eurogroup, IMF

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:30 AM PST

BRUSSELS (MNI) – There is no disagreement between the Eurogroup and
the International Monetary Fund on Greece, Luxembourg’s Finance Minister
Luc Frieden said Tuesday.

The comment came after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and
Eurogroup head Jean-Claude Juncker last night publicly contradicted each
other on the timeline of Greece’s adjustment needs.

In a press briefing, Juncker said that the 120% debt-to-GDP-ratio
that Greece is expected to achieve by 2020 could be moved to 2022,
while Lagarde insisted on the original deadline.

“It is not the case that there is a fight between IMF and
Eurogroup,” Frieden said. Everybody is searching for a way to “make sure
that Greece will in a number of years again be on the path to regular
access to financial markets.”

Frieden said it was not a question of two years more or two years
less. “In my view, the question is more how will Greece credibly
implement that what will be decided,” he said. Noting that any
extension of adjustment will cost additional money, he said that strict
control of reform measure ahead was the key.

“There is no risk of default of Greece in the next few days,”
Frieden added.

–Frankfurt newsroom +49 69 72 01 42; Email: jtreeck@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$$CR$,M$X$$$,M$$EC$]

ECB’s Costa: Portugal’s finance situation requires a debate

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:27 AM PST

  • Country’s debt will be a burden on future generations
  • Portugal’s debt to GDP will stabilize in 2014
  • Priority should be for a quick  fiscal adjustment

German FinMin Schaeuble: France isn’t the ‘sick man of Europe’

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:13 AM PST

  • All euro countries must undertake efforts
  • Rules out public haircuts for Greece, sees possible cuts in Greek loan rates and longer maturities
  • Previous debt target ‘not realistic’
  • ‘On good track’ for a Greek agreement for Nov 20 bailout tranche
  • Chances of Greek sustaining  debt in 2020 may be a bit too ambitious
  • Governments should look for other solutions than haircuts

Bloomberg/Reuters reporting

French FinMin: France, Germany aim to reach political deal on Greece by November 20, disburse funds by month-end

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:12 AM PST

Yippeeeee!!!

ITALY DATA: Final October HICP +0.3% m/m, +2.8% y/y,.

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:10 AM PST

ITALY DATA: Final October HICP +0.3% m/m, +2.8% y/y, up from +3.4% y/y
in September, confirming preliminary readings, ISTAT said.
- HICP m/m slowed by transport, telecommunications, restaurant prices
- Main domestic index (NIC) flat m/m, +2.6% y/y, vs 3.2% in September.
- Core NIC inflation slows to +1.5% from +1.9% y/y in September.

Fitch: Little scope for near-term optimism on Japanese economy

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:08 AM PST

Really? I’m truly shocked………

Italian Final October CPI confirmed at 0.0%m/m, +2.6% y/y

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 01:02 AM PST

Final  Oct EU harmonised CPI confirmed +0.3% m/m, +2.8% y/y (from +2.8% in Sept)

Italy goes to the well today…

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 12:57 AM PST

There’s  Eutr 6.5 bln of new 12 month BOT’s up for grabs today with a Nov 14 2013 maturity.

The last 12mth auction in October saw  Eur 8 bln sold, yield 1.941%, cover 1.77

Results are due around 1010GMT

Italy’s PM: Worst Is Over For Europe If Reform Path Pursued

Posted: 13 Nov 2012 12:50 AM PST

PARIS (MNI) – There is light in the tunnel of the European crisis,
if political leaders are able to stick to the reform path they decided
this summer, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said Tuesday.

The worst is over, “provided we are not too certain and we thus
maintain attention to arrive at adequate decisions,” Monti said in a
radio interview, predicting that Europe “will exit the crisis and exit
stronger.”

Italy itself is already “doing better” today in terms of budget
discipline, financial market stability and the elimination of obstacles
to future growth, the prime minister argued. But “it is not doing better
with respect to growth at this moment,” he conceded.

“Evidently it was an intensive cure which will bring results over
time,” he added.

Asked whether he wanted to continue to lead Italy after next year’s
general elections, Monti said his personal ambition had “no importance
at all.”

“I want the reforms to be pursued,” he said. “Perhaps there will be
other reformers who will be able to do it better and faster than I.”

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$I$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$F$$$]


at 6:05 PM

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