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Thursday, November 15, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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USD/JPY extends rally, tricky tech area looms

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:42 AM PST

We’ve been as high as 81.23 so far, presently at 81.18.

We notable technical resistance looming in 81.45/50 area.

81.45 is the April 27 high.

81.50  is the 61.8% fibbo retracement of 15th March-September 13th sell-off.

Not surprisingly more talk of barrier option interest, this time at 81.50.

 

Slovak PM Fico: Not keen to give Greece more time, more debt writedowns to solve its problems

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:21 AM PST

Boo hiss :(

Pop goes the weasel!!!

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:17 AM PST

81.00 barrier option interest in USD/JPY  is now officially history.

We’re at 81.02 presently.

You all did very well with your blowing, give yourselves a big pat on the back ;)

ECB’s Noyer: Bank balance sheets are now stronger than before the crisis

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:13 AM PST

  • Banking union can break sovereign-bank risk link
  • Splitting banks may  pose a risk to economy financing

Bloomberg reporting

Analysis: Eurozone HICP Slowed To 2.5% In October

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:10 AM PST

October: +0.2% m/m, 2.5% y/y (revised from +2.5% y/y)
September: +0.7% m/m, +2.6% y/y
August: +0.4% m/m, +2.6% y/y
July: -0.5% m/m, +2.4% y/y
–

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Eurozone consumer prices inflation decelerated to
+2.5% on the year in October, while key core inflation rates remained
stable, Eurostat reported Thursday.

In monthly terms, HICP rose 0.2% in October, broadly meeting
analysts’ expectations. The MNI survey of analysts had shown a median
forecast of 0.2% inflation on the months and 2.5% on the year.

Energy remained the principal driver of annual inflation, with
fuels for transport contributing 0.31 point and heating oil 0.10 to the
headline rate.

Food prices rose 0.6% m/m and were up 2.9% on the year while
alcohol and tobacco prices were up 0.9% m/m and 4.0% y/y.

Excluding the energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, annual core HICP
remained unchanged from September’s 1.5% for the third straight month.
Factoring out energy and unprocessed foods, the core rate preferred by
the European Central Bank, the rate also stood stable at 1.7%

Price pressures should continue to wane as the Eurozone recession
deepens, high unemployment limits wage gains, and base effects from
Brent crude’s sharp price increase early this year dampen the energy
impact on annual inflation rates. VAT increases in various Eurozone
states should only delay the slowdown in headline inflation.

Supporting this assessment, the October PMI poll flagged a further
decline in output prices (48.2). A European Commission survey showed
selling price expectations rising only in industry and still below
average in all major sectors.

Respondents in the latest ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
projected inflation to average at 2.5% this year (revised from +2.3% in
August) and come to 1.9% (+1.7%) and +1.9% (+1.9%) in 2013 and 2014,
respectively.

The Commission foresees HICP inflation slowing to +1.8% next year
and to +1.6% in 2014.

“There is no immediate reason to worry about higher inflation,” ECB
Governing Council member Jens Weidmann, who is widely perceived as the
most hawkish member, said late last week. Executive Board member Joerg
Asmussen said Wednesday that he expects “inflation will go below 2%
next year” and that price expectations in the Eurozone remained
well-anchored.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; e-mail: frankfurt@mni-news.com —

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MT$$$$,M$XDS$,M$$CR$,MTABLE]

Analysis: EMU 3Q GDP Down Less Than Expected; Outlook Gloomy

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:10 AM PST

3Q GDP flash: -0.1% q/q, -0.6% y/y

MNI survey median: -0.3% q/q, -0.5% y/y
MNI survey range: -0.5% to flat q/q

2Q GDP: -0.2% q/q, -0.4% y/y
1Q GDP: flat q/q, flat y/y
4Q GDP: -0.3% q/q, +0.6% y/y
-

PARIS (MNI) – The Eurozone economy contracted less than generally
feared in 3Q, although the divergence between core countries and the
southern periphery continued to widen, Eurostat estimated Tuesday.

After a 0.2% downturn in 2Q, GDP slipped another 0.1% in 3Q,
confirming a recessionary trend likely to continue at least through the
end of the year.

An upside risk to the consensus forecast was evident after positive
surprises in Germany and France, where GDP grew in both countries by
0.2%. The quarterly contraction in Italy was also flatter than expected
at 0.2%. The decline in Spain narrowed slightly to 0.3%.

Most of the smaller reporting countries also fared better in 3Q,
with the exception of the Netherlands, where GDP fell back 1.1% on the
quarter, and Austria, which sustained a 0.1% dip. Growth in Finland
recovered to 0.3% and accelerated to 1.7% in Estonia. Activity
stabilized in Belgium after a 0.5% decline in 2Q. The slide narrowed in
Portugal to 0.8% and in Cyprus to 0.5%. Growth in Slovakia was steady at
0.6%.

As usual, Eurostat provided no information on GDP components with
its flash estimate.

Available hard data show a modest recovery in retail sales in 3Q
but a drop in new car purchases. If households continued to draw down
savings as in previous quarters, private consumption may have held up
better than suggested by the 350,000 surge in unemployment over the
quarter. Private consumption contributed positively to growth in Germany
and France, according to national estimates.

While industry managed a 0.3% recovery in output in 3Q thanks to
gains during the summer, business investment was probably dampened again
by excess production capacity, dismal demand prospects and still high
borrowing rates in much of the periphery. Two-month results for
construction suggest the downward trend have been interrupted in 3Q.

Foreign trade no doubt limited the downside in 3Q. Seasonally
adjusted growth of goods exports in July-August outpaced that of imports
1.5% to 1.2%, boosting the average two-month trade surplus to E8.5
billion compared to the 2Q average of E7.0 billion. Both Germany and
France benefited from a trade boost in 3Q and the bailout countries no
doubt as well.

Leading indicators point to even weaker activity ahead. The steep
industry setback in September will weigh on the 4Q average. The
composite Eurozone PMI slipped to a 40-month low of 45.7 in October
compared to the 3Q average of 46.3, with only a flatter slide in new
orders 44.7 as a consolation. Economic sentiment as measured by the
European Commission sunk to a 38-month low in October

Fiscal tightening, rising unemployment and subdued wage gains are a
recipe for anemic consumption. Among the larger economies, only in
Germany and perhaps France are consumers likely to be any better off in
coming months, which would accentuate the growing divergence across
Eurozone economies.

Export growth in the bailout countries may only partly offset the
slowdown in Germany, which is not entirely immune to the recessionary
trend on the southern flank.

The Commission has now pushed back its scenario for a gradual
upturn in Eurozone activity into next year. Consumption, employment and
investment would still decline on average, while the meager 0.1% GDP
gain would come entirely from foreign trade.

Professional forecasters surveyed by the ECB now expect Eurozone
growth of around 0.3% next year, down from +0.6% in previous quarterly
poll.

–Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; email: ssandelius@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$XDS$,MTABLE]

EMU DATA: Oct HICP unrev +2.5% y/y, Sep +2.6%, Aug…

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:10 AM PST

EMU DATA: Oct HICP unrev +2.5% y/y, Sep +2.6%, Aug +2.6%, Jul +2.4%
–Oct HICP y/y matches mni median fcast
–Oct HICP +0.2% m/m, matches mni median fcast
–Oct garments +2.1% m/m, shoes +2.7%
–Oct vegetables +2.2% m/m, tobacco +1.4%
–Oct fruit +2.2% m/m, heating oil +2.6%
–Oct cars -0.1% m/m, telecommunications -0.4%
–Oct rents -0.1% m/m, package holidays -2.7%
–Oct accommodation svc -2.5% m/m, fuels for transport -2.0%
–See MNI Mainwire for details

EMU DATA: 3Q12 flash real GDP -0.1% q/q, -0.6% y/y…

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:10 AM PST

EMU DATA: 3Q12 flash real GDP -0.1% q/q, -0.6% y/y
–3Q flash GDP above MNI median fcasts (-0.2% q/q, -0.7% y/y)
–2Q real GDP unrevised -0.2% q/q, rev -0.4% y/y (-0.5%)
–See MNI Mainwire for details

Euro zone Q3 GDP -0.1% q/q, -0.6% y/y

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:05 AM PST

In line with median forecasts

Eurozone October inflation +0.2%* m/m, +2.5% y/y, in line with expectations

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:04 AM PST

October Inflation ex energy, unprocessed food +0.3% m/m, +1.6% y/y (also in line),

Ex food, Alcohol and tobacco, +0.2% m/m, +1.5% y/y

C’mon everybody let’s blow real hard……….

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:02 AM PST

And see if we can blow away this touted barrier option interest at 81.00 in USD/JPY ;)

We’re at 80.95.

Updated option expiries

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 02:01 AM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1.2650, 1.2700, 1.2715, 1.2750, 1.2775, 1.2800, 1.2820, 1.2825

USD/JPY: 79.50, 79.60, 79.70, 79.90, 80.00, 80.50

GBP/USD: 1.5800, 1.5850 1.5950

EUR/GBP:  0.7930, 0.7990, 0.8000

AUD/USD: 1.0300, 1.0350, 1.0395, 1.0415, 1.0425, 1.0500

NZD/USD: 0.8140

EUR/GBP bounce running out of steam…..

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:51 AM PST

Just for you ‘fibonacci’ boys out there, that neat little bump up in the EUR/GBP following the poor UK retails sales, floundered at the 50% retracement of the  22/Oct fall to  8 Nov base at 0.8063/64.

Offers sit ahead at 0.8070/75 ( Oct 31 high 0.8075) and there’s also further tech res at the 61.8% coming in around 0.8087 behind the 200 day MA at 0.8082. Bids are now moving up into the 0.8040/50 area after the buy stops were taken up earlier through 0.8050

EUR/GBP’s @ 0.8054

SMMT: Strong Home Demand Sees UK Oct Car Manufacturing Rise

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

LONDON (MNI) – Strong domestic demand saw October UK car
manufacturing post a 6.5% rise on a year ago, and a 9.7% rise in the
year-to-date.

Manufacturing for the domestic market was up 18.1% on a year ago,
while the dominant export sector, which made up 85.3% of total output,
saw only a 4.7% rise on the year, according to Society of Motor
Manufacturers and Traders data.

“The UK automotive industry got back on track in October … but
there remain significant challenges as European market demand remains
weak,” Paul Everitt, SMMT Chief Executive, said.

Car manufacturing has been a bright spot in UK manufacturing, while
sector as a whole has failed to expand consistently. Manufacturing did,
however, post a 1% rise on the quarter in Q3.

-London newsroom: +44 207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com.

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$]

ECB’s Asmussen Stresses That Euro Is Irreversible

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

BERLIN (MNI) – European Central Bank Executive Board member Joerg
Asmussen reaffirmed Thursday that the euro was irreversible, noting that
the ECB’s new bond-buying program, the OMT, was designed to counter
unfounded fears about a break up of the Eurozone.

“The possible purchase of government bonds with short maturities on
secondary markets is aimed at countering unfounded fears about a break
up of the Eurozone,” Asmussen said in a draft for a speech to be
delivered at an insurance industry conference here.

“The euro is irreversible,” he stressed. “Only a currency on which
there is no doubt about its survival is a stable currency.”

The fragmentation of financial markets in the Eurozone has brought
about a “foreign exchange rate risk which should not exist in a currency
union,” the Executive board member explained. “We as a central bank must
counter this problem,” he said.

With the OMT the ECB is assuring a functioning of the monetary
policy transmission “in order to assure price stability for the whole
Eurozone,” Asmussen said.

“Buying bonds on secondary markets is within the mandate of the
ECB,” he reaffirmed. Such government bond purchases would not be state
financing, he insisted.

Worries that inflation could result from the OMT and the current
very low ECB interest rates “are unfounded,” the central banker
stressed. He reminded that the ECB would sterilize any bond purchases.

“Our current forecasts project that inflation in the Eurozone will
be below 2% next year,” Asmussen said. “Even more important, inflation
expectations in the Eurozone are solidly anchored – financial markets
are pricing in an inflation rate of just under 2% over six to ten
years.”

Yet, Asmussen said the ECB can only counter unfounded fears of a
catastrophy. “Finding sustainable ways out of the crisis is clearly the
job of the member states,” he stressed.

He noted that crisis-hit states in the Eurozone have made
substantial progress in making their economies more competitive and
bringing their current account deficits down.

“Claims that certain countries can only regain competitiveness by
leaving the Eurozone are wrong,” the Asmussen said. “Some want to make
us believe that we’re acting in a self-destructive way. But this is
clearly not the case.”

He acknowledged, though, that there still remains a lot to be done
in most Eurozone member states. “The budget situation in many euro
countries is weak despite reduced deficits,” he remarked.

Short-term relieve of refinancing pressures must not lead to a
slowing of reform efforts, Asmussen urged. “I’m confident, though, that
we won’t lose the necessary drive,” he said.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$$EC$,MT$$$$]

UK DATA: The SMMT says October Car production rose…

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

UK DATA: The SMMT says October Car production rose 6.5% y/y

ECB’s Asmussen: The euro is irreversible

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:48 AM PST

  • Concerns that OMT bond-buy plan, low interest rates will be inflationary are unfounded
  • United Sates must make 2enormous efforts” in coming weeks to evade fiscal cliff
  • All countries in euro zone, including Germany and France, must reform

EUR/USD ticks higher, bolstered by Rehn comments

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:43 AM PST

We’re at 1.2768 having been as high as 1.2773 after upbeat Rehn comments hit the wires.

As aforementioned, talk has sell orders clustered 1.2775/85, light buy stops above there.

UPDATE:  Guess reports of Spain mulling going to IMF for credit line could have been taken as bullish for the single currency as well.

UK Analysis: Retail Sales Fall Sharply In October

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

-Oct Retail Sales -0.8% m/m; +0.6% y/y; median -0.1% m/m; 1.6% y/y
-Oct Retail Sales ex-fuel -0.7% m/m; +1.1% y/y; median -0.1% m/m; 2% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Retail sales fell sharply in October due to a drop
in sales at food and clothing and footwear stores, figures from National
Statistics showed Thursday.

While the sharp monthly fall in clothing and footwear volumes of
2.3% may have been exaggerated following a timing related boost in
September from school uniform sales, declines were seen across most
other categories suggesting general weakness.

On a trend basis underlying sales are pretty much flat against a
backdrop of a squeeze on households’ incomes and these data will only
add to the gloomy feel left following the publication of the BOE’s
Inflation Report yesterday.

Headline retail sales volumes fell 0.8% on the month and were up
0.6% on the year. This was well below the median for a fall of 0.1% on
the month and rise of 1.6% on the year. Excluding auto-fuel, sales fell
0.7% on the month and were up 1.1% on the year.

A decline in food sales, which make up 41% of overall sales, led
the drop, declining by 0.6% on the month. Food price inflation moved
higher in October to 2.7% on the year from 2% in September, which could
have hit volumes.

Sales at non-food stores were down 1% on the month, led by the fall
in clothing and footwear volumes, but all other categories here showed a
decline. Department store sales (non-specialised stores) fell 0.7% on
the month, household goods store sales fell 0.5% and other stores sale
were down 0.4%.

National Statistics confirmed that the fall in clothing and
footwear sales could have been due to base effects following the strong
rise seen last month.

The only category to show a rise was non-store retailing, largely
made up of internet retailers, where sales rose 1.3% on the month.

The implied fuel deflator increased 0.9% on the year, up from a
0.7% increase in September.

-London bureau: +44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]

UK DATA: Oct Retail Sales -0.8% m/m; +0.6% y/y; yy…

Posted: 15 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST

UK DATA: Oct Retail Sales -0.8% m/m; +0.6% y/y; median -0.1% m/m;1.6% yy
-Oct Retail Sales ex-fuel -0.7% m/m; +1.1% y/y; median -0.1% m/m; 2% y/y
————————————————————————
Retail sales fell by far more than expected in Oct due to a drop in
sales at food and clothing and footwear stores. While the sharp monthly
fall in clothing and footwear of 2.3% may have been exagerrated
following a timing related boost in September from school uniform sales,
declines were seen across most other categories suggesting general
weakness. On a trend basis underlying sales are pretty much flat against
a backdrop of a squeeze on households’ incomes. This will only add
to the gloomy feel left following the publication of the BOE’s
Inflation Report yesterday.


at 6:43 PM

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