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Monday, November 19, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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S&P affirms Isle of Man ratings at AA+/A-1+; outlook stable

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

A few years back I thought about moving to the Isle of Man. Then I realised it was a bit too close to Liverpool ;)

ECB Weidmann:Bank Supervisn Votes Shld Be Based On Cap Shares

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

FRANKFURT (MNI) – Bank supervision decisions taken under the
European Central Bank should be based on capital shares to give
countries taking on greater financial risks a larger say, ECB Governing
Council member Jens Weidmann said Monday.

Weidmann, in the text of a speech prepared for delivery here, also
said a Eurozone banking union should include a resolution fund financed
by banks. He warned against pooling the legacy assets of banks, saying
this would weaken reform incentives. And he said talk of joint EMU
deposit guarantees had “rightly” been shifted to the background of
discussions.

Weidmann, the president of Germany’s Bundesbank, warned that a
banking union should not be seen as a path to joint liabilities “through
the backdoor” that would allow countries to increase their debt burdens.
“This danger exists, and I think it should not be underestimated,” he
said.

He argued that ensuring separation of the ECB’s monetary policy
from its new bank supervision role was “doable, but difficult –
difficult from an organizational perspective and difficult from a legal
perspective.”

He made clear that the financial risks associated with bank
supervision mean countries with larger potential burdens should have
more say. “Given that such decisions also could entail fiscal costs, a
voting weight based on capital shares would make sense,” he said.

As for the Eurozone in general, the key principle for a banking
union should be that “liabilities and control must be in balance,”
Weidmann said. He welcomed the fact a joint EMU deposit scheme did not
seem to be a priority at the current time.

“As a third element, a joint deposit guarantee is being discussed.
But this has somewhat moved into the background – in my view rightly
so,” he said.

Regarding a bank resolution fund, Weidmann said taxpayers should
only have to step in should the bank-financed fund be overstretched.

“There is a lot to say for a sufficiently large fund, into which
the supervised banks pay, and their resources primarily cover the cost
of a resolution or restructuring,” Weidmann said.

– Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: frankfurt@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,M$$EC$,MGX$$$,MT$$$$,M$G$$$,M$$CR$]

DepMin German FinMin Kampeter: US must send signals on fighting fiscal cliff

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:30 AM PST

Official speaking at conference in Frankfurt.

I like Frankfurt.  Spent some quality time there with a mate called Guy.  Last I heard he was working for Soc Gen in Paris.

Some great bars in Frankfurt. Guy and I had some fun there ;)

Anyways

  • Indicators for Greece are pointing up (yippeeeeeeeee!!!)
  • Greece is in ‘a tough position’ (no shit sherlock)
  • ESM is effective tool to fight potential crises (you had better hope so pumpkin)
  • Germany has high level of reform potential
  • German competitiveness ‘isn’t God-given’
  • Germany must work on competitiveness every day
  • Quality is priority in setting up bank union
  • German govt close to Bundesbank on bank union
  • German govt not satisfied with joint liability
  • Germany to go slowly on financial reform (hey, why go quickly when you can dawdle)
  • Germany to go slowly despite market pressure

Buba’s Weidmann: European banking union should relieve burden on monetary policy

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:16 AM PST

  • But see conflict of interests between supervision and monetary policy; these must be strictly seperated
  • Such a separation is difficult but doable

Italy Sept industry orders sa -4.0% m/m, -12.8% y/y

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:10 AM PST

Ughh :(

Sept industry sales sa -4.2% m/m, wda -5.4% y/y.

Another ughh……

ITALY DATA: September SA industry orders -4.0% m/m;..

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:10 AM PST

ITALY DATA: September SA industry orders -4.0% m/m; NSA -12.8% y/y,
down from +0.6% m/m; -9.0% y/y in August, ISTAT said.
- September SA domestic orders -1.4% m/m; foreign orders -7.4% m/m
- September SA industry turnover -4.2% m/m; workday adjusted -5.4% y/y

Spanish banks bad loans 10.7% in September

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 01:04 AM PST

Up marginally from 10.5% in August, Bank of Spain reporting. .

EUR/USD up marginally on day.

Sits at 1.2779 from early 1.2760 having been as high as 1.2787.

Talk of some buy stops gathered around 1.2790.

They gotta be light surely. Who in their right minds would put their stops there for goodness sake?

Sell orders clustered 1.2800/10, buy stops through 1.2815.

USD/JPY unchanged on the day. What next?

Posted: 19 Nov 2012 12:23 AM PST

The reason for the earlier USD/JPY poll is cos I ain’t got a clue in which direction  the next 50 pips is coming in USD/JPY.

I’ve been bullish of late, but I’m not sure now whether we’ll just keep trending higher or are about to see a downside correction.

Medium, longer-term I remain bullish.

We’re at 81.25.

Talk of some sell stops through 81.10.

Buy orders seen clustered 80.90/00,  more sell stops below there and even more through 80.80.

Topside, sell orders seen clustered up at 81.65/75 ahead of 81.75 barrier option interest.

 

SNB’s Moser: Franc is ‘still overvalued’ at 1.20 per euro

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 11:53 PM PST

Well ofcourse it is………

USD/JPY polltime!!!!!

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 11:37 PM PST

Yee-haw!!!!

USD/JPY sits at 81.30.

What’ll we see first 80.80 or 81.80?

Japanese Vice FinMin Takemasa: Expects bold monetary easing from BOJ

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 11:23 PM PST

Me too ;)

Abe pledges to make BOJ buy bonds

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 11:12 PM PST

BOE Miles: “There Is Scope For More Quantitative Easing”

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 11:10 PM PST

LONDON (MNI) – Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member
David Miles says quantitative easing is “a powerful weapon” and there is
room to do more.

In a Sky TV interview Sunday Miles, who has championed QE,
dismissed the view that it has become ineffective and said more would be
done if the economy stays mired in recession.

“There is the scope for more quantitative easing … it remains a
powerful weapon,” Miles said.

“If it turns out that not enough has been done, that the economy’s
going to stay in a recessionary state and that’s going to drive
inflation down, there is more we can do. We have not run out of
ammunition,” Miles said.

The MPC voted for unchanged policy at its November meeting with the
minutes out Wednesday. Many analysts are expecting a unanimous vote, as
the transfer of gilt coupons to the Treasury from the BOE’s QE fund
amounted to monetary easing, and this is thought likely to have brought
the doves into line.

If any MPC member did, however, dissent and vote for more stimulus
Miles is seen as the most likely one and his comments show he is still a
proponent of QE.

–London newsroom 0044 20 7862 7492; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$$BE$]

Japan opposition LDP keeps lead before vote: poll

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 11:01 PM PST

43% didn’t support any particular party :(   We’ll call them the ‘we’re past bloody caring gang’ And who can blame them…….

RPT: Schaeuble Rejects Haircut On Greek Debt For Public Sector

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 10:50 PM PST

BERLIN (MNI) – German Finance Wolfgang Schaeuble reiterated his opposition
to any haircut on Greek debt held by the public sector, speaking during a
television interview on Sunday.

Schaeuble told German ARD public television that under national budget
rules such a haircut would forbid the government to give any new loans to Greece
or sign guarantees for loans given to the country.

“By the way, the European Central Bank, which is [Greece's] main creditor
is also categorically rejecting” a haircut on the Greek debt it is holding, he
remarked.

Still, Schaeuble said he was optimistic that eurozone finance ministers at
the Eurogroup meeting on Tuesday will find a way to grant Greece more time to
get its debt under control.

“We must find a common line,” the minister remarked. “And we must find it
on Tuesday.”

ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said Friday that Greece might
need another debt haircut at the end of its current fiscal consolidation and
reform program.

Speaking at a conference organized by the German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung
in Berlin, Weidmann said one could not deny the fact that Greece’s public debt
is currently not sustainable.

“The question if the necessity of a debt haircut arises from this is in my
view open,” said Weidmann, who is president of the German Bundesbank.

“One could ask … if it would not make sense to propose a haircut – which
one will need in the end to gain access to capital markets again – if the
reforms, which really matter, have been carried out,” the central banker said.
“The question is, if this could not be an incentive to carry out the reforms.”

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,MT$$$$,M$G$$$,M$$CR$,M$Y$$$]

[TOPICS: M$G$$$,M$X$$$,MK$$$$,M$$EC$,MFG$$$,MFX$$$,MGX$$$]

Here we all are, happy as can be…….

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 10:42 PM PST

:)

Soon be Christmas.  Dug out my stock of Christmas cards yesterday. Have to get writing those that need to be sent abroad before much longer……

EUR/USD continues to shock and amaze us with its’ sparkling price volatility………………or rather it doesn’t

EUR/USD sits at 1.2763, unsure where it really wants to go and checking its’ roadmap.

Buy orders clustered down at 1.2720/30, sell stops below there and more through 1.2700.

Sell orders well-documented up at 1.2800/10 (200 dma 1.2808), buy stops gathering around 1.2815.

Buba’s Jens Weidmann scheduled to give keynote speech at 15th Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt at 08:30 GMT.  Something to look forward to boys and girls!!

Jingle bells, jingle bells, jingle all the way………

JAPAN DATA: Revised monthly data from the Japan……

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 10:20 PM PST

JAPAN DATA: Revised monthly data from the Japan Machine Tool Builders’
Association:
– October machine tool orders Revised -6.7% at Y94.32 billion vs. Prelim -6.7%
at Y94.34 billion
– Oct machine tool orders post the sixth straight fall after -2.8% in September
– Domestic orders, a leading indicator of core machinery orders, -13.2% y/y
– Overseas orders, which account for about 70% of overall orders, -3.8% y/y
– Orders from Asia -2.1% y/y, Europe -31.2%, North America +17.1%
– Orders from China, +9.4% y/y, 4th straight fall after +7.8% in September and
+19.5% in August

Popularity of France’s Hollande continues decline

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 10:13 PM PST

Poor Francois  :(

Did I tell ya I’m a little worried about France? Now it seems everyone is…………

ForexLive Asia Wrap M19Nov2012: USD/JPY stop run & KO Option trigger

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 09:58 PM PST

Very slow on the economic data release front in Asia today. New Zealand kicked off with:

Later we got:

The tone was positive going into the Asian open today, with Friday's soothing remarks on the Fiscal Cliff helping equity markets and 'risk', as well as generally positive remarks surrounding Tuesday's scheduled IMF/Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting (despite the still-vexed questions of extension to 2022 favored by the Euro zone group vs 2020 favored by the IMF).

AUD, EUR and GBP all traded higher in early going (the NZD and Loony were positive, but lagged), and continued through the Tokyo morning and into the afternoon.

USD/JPY was a sharp mover again, higher in the morning through the barrier option interest at 81.50 to 81.57/59 just after the Tokyo open, before long liquidation saw it settling lower around the week's opening level at 81.20/30. Talk now is 81.75 and 82.00 Knock-out options to be dealt with, while strong bids are said to be present 80.90 to 81.00.

Merkel’s day of reckoning as taxpayer haircut on Greece looms

Posted: 18 Nov 2012 09:54 PM PST


at 6:07 PM

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