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• Euro zone October unemployment 11.7%
• Greek September retail sales -12.1% y/y
• Euro zone November inflation estimated at 2.2% y/y
• Anybody want to know what Morgan Stanley thinks of cable?
• How’s ya German?
• USD/JPY retains bid-tone into mid morning
• Draghi continues: ‘We were living in a fairy world’
• More Draghi: Sees relative stabilisation of market conditions
• Lagarde: Correction of euro zone’s imbalances is far from over
• More Schaeuble: Failure to pass Greek aid would hit EU, beyond
• IMF’s Lagarde: European economy is fragile
• Schaeuble: First successes seen in Greece rescue
• Swiss November KOF falls to 1.50
• Spanish November Flash CPI 2.9% y/y
• Pimco’s Bosomworth : ECB should cut interest rates
• French October consumer spending -0.2% m/m, -0.5 % y/y
• Cyprus’s CB chief Demetriades: Draft bailout agreement suggest recapitalization could require up to Eur10bln
• ECB’s Draghi: Crisis isn’t over yet
• Barrier talk….
• Month end flows

Euro zone October unemployment 11.7% Posted: 30 Nov 2012 02:10 AM PST Up from 11.6% in September and in line with median forecasts.

Greek September retail sales -12.1% y/y Posted: 30 Nov 2012 02:08 AM PST UGHH after revised -9.3% in August….

Euro zone November inflation estimated at 2.2% y/y Posted: 30 Nov 2012 02:05 AM PST Down from 2.5% in October and weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of 2.4%. Anyone for an ECB rate cut at the next council meeting?

Anybody want to know what Morgan Stanley thinks of cable? Posted: 30 Nov 2012 02:02 AM PST Just askin

How’s ya German? Posted: 30 Nov 2012 01:49 AM PST If you want to listen to parliamentary debate on Greek aid

USD/JPY retains bid-tone into mid morning Posted: 30 Nov 2012 01:32 AM PST USD/JPY up at 82.67 from the 82.45 which greeted me first thing. There had been talk of month-end dollar demand in this pairing, amongst others (only one following the plan so far) Talk of very large 82.90 one-touch option structure rolling off at todays’ New York cut (for those who believe in magnetism) Obviously talk of 83.00 barrier option interest,  protective sell orders clustered just ahead of said interest (82.90/00). EUR/JPY up at 107.55 from early 107.10.  Talk of more buy stops through 107.80 before 108.00 barrier interest.

Draghi continues: ‘We were living in a fairy world’ Posted: 30 Nov 2012 01:18 AM PST Europe underestimated imbalances Crisis shows banks were not robust enough

More Draghi: Sees relative stabilisation of market conditions Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:59 AM PST Speaking at conference in Paris ECB’s OMT plan addresses tail risks Some banks in stressed countries regained mkt access OMT alone is not responsible for stabilization Euro-area reforms contributing to stabilization Improving competitiveness is key Euro area has made progress on internal imbalances Spain and Portugal have had strong export growth Some euro nations need to be more business friendly Welcomes France’s recent focus on competitiveness Reform painful in short-term but leads to prosperity Removing doubts about euro’s future was necessary Governments have made progress, work not finished yet Bloomberg reporting.

Lagarde: Correction of euro zone’s imbalances is far from over Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:48 AM PST Happy Dayz Govts should give more weight to structural deficit targets than nominal deficits Pace of fiscal consolidation in Europe should remain reasonable so as not to affect growth (and for my next trick)

More Schaeuble: Failure to pass Greek aid would hit EU, beyond Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:28 AM PST Yes it would. Greek economic transformation like ex-east bloc Greece is increasing its competitiveness More Greek wage flexibility is helping economy Can’t blame Greece’s woes on reform adjustments Bond buyback will shrink debt load significantly Greece only gets aid if it continues reforms Additional measures may be EU development aid Other future Greek measure could be interest cut Speculation of a debt cut would fuel instability A Greek default could lead to total euro breakup Goal is that Greece can one day pay its own debt Greece can only be helped on step-by-step basis Nobody profits more from EU than Germany Schaeuble ends speech in Parliament.

IMF’s Lagarde: European economy is fragile Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:27 AM PST Think we all know that Christine..  ;) Hopes ECB bond purchases can be activated in the near term Financial markets still fragmented Strong recession in the Eurozone periphery is hurting the core ESM and OMT should help prevent contagion Banking union is a priority in IMF’s  opinion, followed by greater budgetary coordination Favours ECB taking banking supervisory role

Schaeuble: First successes seen in Greece rescue Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:18 AM PST Still a long way to go for Greece Greece crisis can’t be resolved in a ‘few years’ Greece govt is making big effort for reforms EUR/USD sits at 1.3020. Can’t get any reliable explanation for the spike from circa 1.2992 to 1.3028 just after the really crap German retail sales data.  As I said earlier, it’s month-end falling on a Friday, anything can happen.

Swiss November KOF falls to 1.50 Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:07 AM PST The economic barometer for the next 6 mths fell below expectations of 1.60 and  a revised September reading of  1.64 (prev 1.67) Lowest reading for 4 months EUR/CHF is relatively static around 1.2045

Spanish November Flash CPI 2.9% y/y Posted: 30 Nov 2012 12:04 AM PST Down from 3.5% in October Flash EU harmonized CPI 3.0% y/y, down from 3.5% in October and below Reuters forecast of 3.4%

Pimco’s Bosomworth : ECB should cut interest rates Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:54 PM PST  Eurozone’s heading for a  ’strong slowdown’ Sees positive momentum in Spanish bonds continuing Andrew Bosomworth is Pimco’s  head of portfolio management in Munich

French October consumer spending -0.2% m/m, -0.5 % y/y Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:46 PM PST Worsening from  +0.1% m/m and -0.3% y/y last month and vs  Reuters forecasts -0.1%  m/m October Producer prices  rose +0.5% m/m  (reuters forecast +0.4%)from a revised +0.4%  in Sept( +0.3%)

Cyprus’s CB chief Demetriades: Draft bailout agreement suggest recapitalization could require up to Eur10bln Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:40 PM PST Final amount isn’t yet certain Overhaul of Cypriot banks is imperative

ECB’s Draghi: Crisis isn’t over yet Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:28 PM PST Expects Eurozone recovery to come in 2nd half of 2013 Welcomes and is very satisfied with Eurogroup accord  of Nov 27 Shows Greece will remain in the Euro ECB will do what ever it takes to keep euro stable Banks are suffering from state of public finances Unified supervision must apply to all banks to avoid banking sector fragmentation Need to boost labour market flexibility France and Italy need to remove rigidity from their labour/product markets Losing AAA status sends signals to governments, must be taken seriously

Barrier talk…. Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:24 PM PST Hearing the following… EUR/USD: 1.3050 USD/JPY:  82.80, 82.90 83.00 AUD/USD: 1.0500 GBP/USD: 1.6100

Month end flows Posted: 29 Nov 2012 11:09 PM PST Handle with care (remember what happened last month) Talk of moderate month end dollar demand against likes of jpy, eur and gbp. Indeed, murmours the sell orders up at 1.3010/25 are partially month-end related.

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