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Monday, November 5, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Barrier talk…

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 01:58 AM PST

Apart from the one  in EUR/USD which Gerry has just mentioned at 1.2775

There’s  barriers in…

USD/CHF: 0.9450 and 0.9500

USD/JPY: 81.00

AUD/USD: 1.0200, 1.0450

EXPIRY UPDATES

AUD/USD 1.0350 and USD/JPY 80.50,   are both large (500+)

 

 

 

UK Oct Services PMI Decelerates; Lowest Since Dec 2010

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

-UK Oct CIPS Services PMI 50.6 Versus 52.2 In Sep – Markit/Reuters

LONDON (MNI) – UK services sector growth slowed markedly in
October, with the sector barely expanding at the start of the fourth
quarter.

The headline October CIPS services PMI plunged to 50.6 from 52.2 in
September, the lowest outturn since December 2010 and only just above
the 50 breakeven level. Following a 47.5 outturn for manufacturing in
October, these data raise the risk of the UK economy returning to
negative growth in Q4 after the 1% surge in quarterly growth seen in Q3.

The composite PMI for October dropped below the 50 level, coming in
at 49.7, down from 51.0 in September.

Business expectations fell to 65.3 from 67.0 in September, the
lowest outturn since June.

-London newsroom 0044 207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$BDS$,MABDS$]

Euro zone November sentix index up to -18.8

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 01:31 AM PST

From -22.2 in October, better than median forecast of -20.0

EUR/USD extends recovery very slightly in wake of data, presently at 1.2805.

UK October Services PMI falls to 50.6

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 01:28 AM PST

Sharply lower than the 52.2  reading in September and well below Reuters estimate of 52.0, lowest since Dec 2010

Business expectations fell to 65.3 in October from 67.0 in September,  (lowest since June)

Composite PMI output index falls to 49.7 from 51.0 in September

EUR/GBP’s lifted back through 0.8000 on the weaker release

Talk of 1.2775 barrier option interest in EUR/USD

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 01:24 AM PST

Being told there’s 1.2775 barrier option interest, apparently with a $7 million pay-off, expiring November 15th.

Guess it goes someway to explain the bounce from 1.2777 session low.  We’re presently at 1.2800.

EUR/JPY heading for more stops

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 12:50 AM PST

The recent drop  in EUR/USD ran stops down through 103.00 in EUR/JPY  to lows of 102.58, and there are more reportedly sitting just below on a break of 102.50.

Major tech support lies just beneath in the 102.00/20 area (200 day MA at 102.13,  Oct 30 lows of 102.17, trendline support around 102.00 from July 24/25 lows), a close below here on a daily basis will likely trigger further bearish signals

Cross currently trades around 102.75

ACB demand noted in EUR/USD

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 12:45 AM PST

Asian central bank demand being noted down at 1.2775/80.

We’re at 1.2790 from session low 1.2777.

Can’t they just piss off and let the market get on with doing its’ thang……

We should be soooo lucky ;)

EUR/AUD slammed again…

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 12:33 AM PST

All doom and gloom this morning in the EUR/USD’s sent EUR/AUD into a tailspin and through the  38.2% fibonacci retracement of the rally from 1.1605 to  12830, which comes in at 1.2360.

The cross is over 60 points from the 1.2408 Asian session highs and is now entering the ichimoku cloud on a daily basis, heading for the  1.2320 lows last seen on  27 September, a break of which points to a move to 1.2280/90 area.

AUD/USD being cushioned by the move holding above the  200 and 100 day MA’s (10336/1.0342) around 1.0350

EUR/AUD’s currently trading just above recent lows of 1.2346

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up +10 bps at 5.77%

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 12:25 AM PST

You knew they were going to be higher after the Die Welt ECB/Spanish bank collateral story.  Thought they might have been even a little higher.

And boy weren’t those Spanish unemployment figures grim :(

EUR/USD has extended sell-off to 1.2780 at writing.

Reports of buy orders clustered down at 1.2750/60.

Spain Oct jobless rises 2.7%m/m

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 12:04 AM PST

Ouch !…or 128,242 people.. Takes total to 4.8 million according to Spanish Labour Ministry

3rd consecutive fall  since the end of the tourist season

Spanish IBEX is down 1.2%

Pop goes the weasel

Posted: 05 Nov 2012 12:03 AM PST

Barriers at 1.2800 in EUR/USD history.

Stops tripped just below 1.2800 and we’re down at 1.2790.

European stocks lower, led very much by Spain’s IBEX.  The Die Welt story pertaining to the ECB and Spanish bank collateral we posted at the weekend will not be helping.

Eurogroup Wants To Avoid Another Haircut On Greek Debt: Press

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 11:30 PM PST

BERLIN (MNI) – Eurozone finance ministers want to avoid another
haircut on Greek debt through a bundle of financing measures, the German
weekly Der Spiegel reported over the weekend, citing no sources.

According to the magazine, the Eurogroup plans to lower the
interest rate on the loans granted to Greece. Moreover, the European
Central Bank will accept Greek short-term debt as collateral longer than
planned, Der Spiegel wrote.

The ECB and national central banks will also distribute to Greece
the profits they will make on the Greek bonds they bought on secondary
markets, the magazine claimed.

Greek state assets are to be securitized with the state assets
themselves serving as collateral, Der Spiegel said. Greek banks are to
get direct recapitalisation from Europe’s permanent bailout fund, the
European Stability Mechanism. The ESM is also to provide funds to Greece
to buy back its debt on secondary markets, the magazine wrote.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; email: twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$X$$$,MGX$$$,M$$CR$,M$G$$$,M$Y$$$,MT$$$$]

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 11:25 PM PST

EUR/USD: (Barrier 1.2800) Bids 1.2800/10, sell stops below ahead of tech support 1.2755/60 (Sept 11/12 lows) sell stops through 1.2750, tech supp 1.2735/40 (38.2% of 1.2042-1.3169 rally at 1.2037), ahead of further bids 1.2700/10.  200 day MA 1.2830, offers 1.2845/55 (55 day MA 1.2857), buy stops through 1.2860, ahead of further offers 1.2890/00

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.6000/10, sell stops below ahead of bids 1.5980/90 and 1.5950/60, sell stops below each. Offers 1.6040/50 (55 day MA 1.6047) and 1.6090/1.6110

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8030/40 and 0.8065/75, tech res/offers 0.8090/00 (0.8097- 200 day MA) likely buy stops just above, and more offers 0.8135/45. Bids 0.7995/0.8010 (cloud top 0.7996), sell stops below ahead of tech support 0.7960/70 (100 day MA 0.7967, and 50% of 0.7755/0.8165 at 0.7960) and bids/tech 0.7945/50 (Oct 1 low 0.7948)

USD/JPY:  Offers from 80.60 up to 81.00 (barrier) from exporters, buy stops mixed in up through80.85 and above 81.00. Bids from 80.30 layered down to 80.00 from macro names/ momentum traders. Sell stops through 79.95 ahead of further bids 79.50/70

EUR/JPY:  Bids 103.00/10 sell stops just below ahead of further bids 102.50/60 and larger at 102.20/30 ahead of 200 day MA at 102.13. Offers 103.50/60 and 103.90/00

AUD/JPY: Bids, 83.00/10  and 82.75/85 (tenkan line supp 82.83), sell stops through 82.70. Offers 83.40/50 and83.75/85, buy stops through 84.00

AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0380/00 some buy stops just above ahead of more offers 1.0440/50 (1.0450 barrier). Bids 1.0335/45 (200/100 day MA's 1.0336/1.0342)and larger 1.0300/10,  sell stops below through 1.0280  and 1.0250

EUR/AUD:  Bids 1,2350/70 and tech supp  (sept 27 low 1.2320). 1.2320/30.  Tech res  1.2410/20 (200 day MA 1.2411, 55  day 1.2418), offers 1.2350/60 (Oct 1 low 1.2358)

NZD/USD:  Offers 0.8280/000/80 likely buy stops above. Bids 0.8240/50, 0.8200/10 (cloud top 0.8203,) and 0.8180/90 (38.2% retracement of 5-28 Sept rise- around 0.8188)

Germany Aims For Structurally Balanced Federal Budget By 2014

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 11:20 PM PST

BERLIN (MNI) – The German government is aiming for a structurally
balanced federal budget by 2014, Chancellor Angela Merkel and the
leaders of her smaller coalition partners agreed early Monday morning.

The federal budget will already be close to balance in 2013, German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said last month.

Schaeuble also said he expects Germany’s total public budget
deficit will sink to below 0.5% of GDP in 2013 and will be balanced in
2014.

–Berlin bureau: +49-30-22 62 05 80; twidder@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$G$$$,MFGBU$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$]

Irish October services PMI rises to 56.1

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 10:59 PM PST

Nice jump from 53.9 in September.

Highest since October 2007.

European stocks set to open lower

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 10:33 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE opening down as much as -0.5%, DAX down as much as -0.4% and CAC 40 down as much as -0.5%.

EUR/USD sits at 1.2827.

Talk of buy orders clustered down at 1.2800/10 ahead of barrier option interest at 1.2800.

Is it too much to ask for a ‘pop goes the weasel’ headline on a Monday morning?

After all it is Fireworks Night tonight  :)

 

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 10:21 PM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1.2850, 1.2870, 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000

GBP/USD: 1.6000, 1.6195

EUR/GBP: 0.8000, 0.8100

USD/JPY: 79.50, 79.90, 80.25, 80.50 (large), 81.00

AUD/USD: 1.0350 (large)

EUR/NOK: 7.4000

USD/CAD: 0.9990

EUR/USD poll: Are we finally going to break the logjam?

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 10:10 PM PST

We remain ensconsed in the well-trodden 1.2800-1.3200 range.

Are we finally going to see the logjam broken and an effective breakout to the downside, or are we destined for more rangetrade.

We sit at 1.2830.

What’ll we see first, 1.2730 or 1.2930?

Reasons for choice always welcome, but not obligatory.

Better retail sales won’t necessarily prompt an RBA rate cut

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 10:08 PM PST

Today’s rise in monthly retail sales showed a 0.5% rise, (slightly above expectations) but there’s plenty of uncertainty still surrounding a fragile jobs  market and the retail sector.

NAB’s senior economist David de Garis, still sees it as a 50/50 call on the RBA decision tomorrow.

AUD/USD sits around 1.0365

More ….Sydney Morning Herald

China’s economic destiny in doubt after leadership shock

Posted: 04 Nov 2012 09:58 PM PST


at 6:04 PM

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