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• EUR/JPY seeing some decent activity
• UK Analysis: Sep Industrial Production Plunges Due Oil, Gas
• UK Oct Car Registrations Rise 12.1% y/y In Oct – SMMT
• Pete’s gone for day. I’m tied up with stuff. So………
• EU Oct final services PMI 46.0
• German Oct Final Services PMI 48.4
• French Oct final services PMI falls back to 44.6
• Italian Oct services PMI rises to 46.0
• France’s Govt Eyeing E20 Bln Relief On Payroll Charges: Press
• EUR/USD extends sell-off, Rajoy comments not helping
• More Rajoy: We will take new steps on mortgage evictions
• Correct: Tanzanian Bank Saves Cyprus From Insolvency – Press
• EUR/AUD hits the skids again…
• Spain’s Rajoy: If financing costs rise sharply we would ask for rescue
• Halifax: UK House Prices Fall 0.7% On Month In Oct
• Spain October services PMI rises to 41.2
• Spain’s Rajoy: 2012 will be worst year for economy
• UK Halifax October house prices -0.7% m/m, -1.7% y/y
• Today’s orderboard
• EU commissioner Barnier: Europe has passed ‘peak’ of debt crisis

EUR/JPY seeing some decent activity Posted: 06 Nov 2012 01:51 AM PST Being told a ‘respected’ Asian name has been in buying EUR/JPY in recent trade. The cross is presently up at 102.65. If we get above 103.00 before we slip back below 102.30, then they’ll have my respect as well

UK Analysis: Sep Industrial Production Plunges Due Oil, Gas Posted: 06 Nov 2012 01:40 AM PST -UK Sep manufacturing output up 0.1% m/m; dn 1.0% y/y -UK Sep industrial production dn 1.7% m/m; dn 2.6% y/y LONDON (MNI) – Industrial production plunged in September, hit by a record-breaking decline in oil and gas extraction. Manufacturing output nudged up on the month and industrial production would also have been a little higher if it had not been for the precipitous decline in oil and gas output. Industrial production was down 1.7% on the month in September and down 2.6% on the year. Oil and gas extraction fell 20.9% on the month, the largest fall in this data series which goes back to 1997, while mining and quarrying fell 15.3% on the month, the largest drop since February 1974. National Statistics cited maintenance work for the fall in oil and gas output. This sector knocked 1.9 percentage points off industrial production, which all else being equal would have posted a small rise if oil and gas output had simply held steady. Q3 industrial production was revised down to 0.9% from the 1.1% estimate used in Q3 GDP, but National Statistics said the impact on GDP would be minimal – less than 0.05 percentage point. Manufacturing also performed robustly in Q3, seeing growth of 0.9% on the quarter. In others industrial sectors, electricity and gas supply rose 0.5% on the month and was down 0.5% on a year ago, while water supply fell 0.1% on the month and was up 0.2% on a year ago. –London newsroom 4420 7862 7491 email: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MABDA$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$,MABDS$]

UK Oct Car Registrations Rise 12.1% y/y In Oct – SMMT Posted: 06 Nov 2012 01:20 AM PST –Up 5% In Year To Date Vs Same Period 2011; Hikes Full Year Fcast LONDON (MNI) – UK car registrations rose 12.1% on the year in October and are up 5% in the year to data from the same period of 2011, the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said today. The SMMT noted that the rise bucks the current deteriorating car demand trend in Europe. SMMT said it had revised up its forecast for the full year to over two million units, from 1.94 million in 2011. –London bureau: 0044 20 78627492; email: dthomas@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$,MT$$$$]

Pete’s gone for day. I’m tied up with stuff. So……… Posted: 06 Nov 2012 01:12 AM PST If the world ends in next 20/30 minutes or so, you’ll not read about it on Forexlive……

EU Oct final services PMI 46.0 Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:59 AM PST From Flash 46.2 and Sept 46.1. lowest since July 2009 Oct Final Composite PMI 45.7 ( from 45.8 flash and 46.1 in Sept), lowest since June 2009 Final Oct services employment 47.4 ( flash 47.5, and 45.9 in Sept) Final Composite new business 44.7 ( from flash 44.3 and 43.8 in Sept)

German Oct Final Services PMI 48.4 Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:54 AM PST From flash reading of 49.3 and well below Sept’s reading of 49.7 Final composite PMI 47.7 ( flash 48.1, and down from Sept final reading of 49.2) Service providers business expectations rises to 46.2 from final 43.5 in Sept

French Oct final services PMI falls back to 44.6 Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:50 AM PST From Flash reading of 46.2 and a final Sept reading of 45.0 (one year low) Final composite PMI 43.5 (down from Flash 44.8, but above Sept final reading of 43.2)

Italian Oct services PMI rises to 46.0 Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:45 AM PST From 44.5 in Sept. Highest since Aug last year, but still contracting for the 17th consecutive month Oct new business index rises to 45.2 from 42.1 (highest since Jan 2012)

France’s Govt Eyeing E20 Bln Relief On Payroll Charges: Press Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:40 AM PST PARIS (MNI) – The French government is considering reducing employer payroll charges by E20 billion through tax credits accorded to companies in exchange for a commitment to preserve employment, the French weekly Le Point reports on its website. The size of the reduction in employer payroll charges under consideration is comparable to that proposed by industry executive Louis Gallois as part of a package of measures to bolster the competitiveness of domestic producers. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is to unveil the government’s strategy later Tuesday. Rather than providing an immediate reduction in payroll taxes, the measure would allow firms that accept the conditions to reduce their taxes by an amount equivalent to around 6% of social payroll charges on salaries up to 2.5 times the minimum wage, Le Point reports. To finance the tax revenue shortfall, public spending by the central government and municipalities would be cut by a total of E10 billion. The standard value-added tax rate would be hiked by 0.4 point to 20%, and the intermediate rate for restaurants would rise from 7% to 10%. To soften the blow for lower-income households, the minimum VAT rate on food and other necessities would be trimmed by half a point to 5%. An ecology tax would also be introduced gradually to reach the targeted amount, Le Point said. Other measures among Gallois’ 22 proposals would be adopted, including cash advances for small firms, cutbacks in red tape, an expansion of broad-band access and no changes to tax measures over five years. However, there is as yet no plan to lift the ban on prospecting for shale gas, Le Point said, noting that the prime minister’s office had confirmed that information. –Paris newsroom +331 4271 5540; e-mail: ssandelius@mni-news.com [TOPICS: M$F$$$,M$X$$$,MGX$$$]

EUR/USD extends sell-off, Rajoy comments not helping Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:34 AM PST So we’re not gonna see any early request from Spain for a rescue. That’ll only come if cost of borrowing shoots higher. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.2763 in wake of comments, presently at 1.2768. As aforementioned, buy orders seen clustered 1.2750/60, sell stops below there.  Then 1.2737 fibbo support below there.

More Rajoy: We will take new steps on mortgage evictions Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:30 AM PST To take ‘fair, just’ decisions on mortgage evictions Decision on foreclosure as soon as possible Speaking to Socialists on foreclosures

Correct: Tanzanian Bank Saves Cyprus From Insolvency – Press Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:30 AM PST - Corrects Bank Origin To Tanzania FRANKFURT (MNI) – The Cypriot government has managed to push back the threat of near-term insolvency thanks to the purchase of E240 million in government bonds by a bank in Tanzania, the German daily Die Welt reports. According to the newspaper, the bonds were initially to be repaid by November 4, which would have left the Cypriot government insolvent before year-end. However, the Federal Bank of the Middle East has renewed the bonds, thus allowing the government to push back repayment, Die Welt said. As the Tanzanian financial institution seeking a banking license to operation in Cyprus and likely to get it, the opposition is concerned. “We hope that the banking license was not a condition for the government bonds to be renewed,” opposition leader Averof Neophytou was quoted as saying. Heavy exposure to the Greek banking system, as well as severe damage to Cyprus’ biggest power plant last year, has left the Cypriot government with a huge financial burden and requesting assistance from a number of sources, including Russia and the European bailout fund. While Cyprus has managed to obtain some funds from Russia, a decision regarding a European bailout is unlikely before next year, a German Finance Ministry spokesperson said on Monday. Speaking at a regular government press conference in Berlin, ministry spokesperson Martin Kotthaus noted that talks with Cyprus were progressing at a rather moderate speed, which means “a completion before the year 2013 will likely be difficult.” – Frankfurt bureau: +49 69 720 142; email: twailoo@mni-news.com [TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$X$$$,M$G$$$,MFGBU$,MGX$$$,MFX$$$]

EUR/AUD hits the skids again… Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:26 AM PST Collapsed from  the 1.2330′s after the RBA kept rates on hold and is now testing the bids down in the 1.2250/60 zone. There are likely sell stops through 1.2250 ahead of  tech support  at the 100 day MA down at 1.2210, which also coincides with the 50% retracement of the rise from the beginning of Aug lows to the early Oct high. Below here there’s little in the way of solid support ahead of the daily cloud base at 1.2100 EUR/AUD’s trading around  the days lows of 1.2254

Spain’s Rajoy: If financing costs rise sharply we would ask for rescue Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:22 AM PST Rescue would mean lower financing costs No sense to seek rescue if spreads stay the same It’s ‘already good’ that ECB offered to buy bonds We need to know how much yields would fall with rescue (good luck with that one matey) We have covered nearly all 2012 issuance

Halifax: UK House Prices Fall 0.7% On Month In Oct Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:20 AM PST -House Prices -0.7% m/m In Oct; -1.7% 3m y/y LONDON (MNI) – October house prices fell on the month, quarter and year with the deteriorating trend continuing, Halifax reported. The Halifax House Price Index was down 0.7% on the month in October, down 1.7% on a 3 month year-on-year basis and down 1.2% three months on three months. This was the fifth consecutive fall in the three monthly measure, an indicator of underlying trend. “Signs of a modest deterioration in the trend in house prices continued in October,” Martin Ellis, Halifax’s housing economist, said. The 1.2% three monthly fall was down from just 0.5% in September. “The weak economic background has been a key factor dampening housing demand this year,” Ellis added. The average house price now stands at stg158,426. The Halifax findings run counter to those of rival Nationwide, which reported that house prices were up 0.6% on the month in October, with a yearly fall of just 0.9%. -London newsroom: 44207 862 7491; email drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: MABDA$,MABDS$]

Spain October services PMI rises to 41.2 Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:14 AM PST From 40.2 in September, but  a 16th consecutive month of contraction New business index rises to 41.4 from 40.2 in Sept

Spain’s Rajoy: 2012 will be worst year for economy Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:10 AM PST 2013 will be better Will see growth in 2014 Spain to lose UNDER 600,000 jobs this year (phew, that’s a relief) No plans for further tax hikes for now Aiming to cut income tax in 2014 Spain undergoing unavoidable deleveraging process To decide on pension increase after November inflation Won’t cut civil servant salaries in 2013

UK Halifax October house prices -0.7% m/m, -1.7% y/y Posted: 06 Nov 2012 12:04 AM PST Ughhh

Today’s orderboard Posted: 05 Nov 2012 11:57 PM PST EUR/USD: Bids 1.2750/60 sell stops through 1.2750, tech supp 1.2735/40 (38.2% of 1.2042-1.3169 rally at 1.2737), ahead of further bids 1.2700/10.  200 day MA 1.2828. Offers 1.2800/10 and 1.2830/50 buy stops above, ahead of further offers 1.2890/00 GBP/USD:   Offers  1.6000/10,  and 1.6040/50 (55 day MA  1.6050). Bids  1.5950/60, sell stops below ahead of more bids  1.5910/20 EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8000/10, 0.8030/40 and 0.8065/75, tech res/offers 0.8090/00 (0.8093- 200 day MA). Bids 0.7980/90 sell stops below ahead of tech support 0.7960/70 (100 day MA 0.7966, and 50% of 0.7755/0.8165 at 0.7960) and bids/tech 0.7945/50 (Oct 1 low 0.7948) USD/JPY:  Offers from 80.30/50  and layered upwards from exporters, buy stops mixed in up through 80.85 and above 81.00 (barrier). Bids 79.95/o5 from macro names/ momentum traders. Sell stops through 79.95 ahead of further bids 79.80 (Nov 1 lows) and larger down at  79.50/70 EUR/JPY:  Bids 102.00/20 (200 day MA 102.14,. trendline support 102.00) sell stops through 101.90  ahead of further bids 101.50/60  Offers 102. 50/60 and 102.80/00 AUD/JPY: Bids, 83.35/45 and 83.00/10 sell stops below ahead of support 82.87  tenkan line  and trendline support 82.80, sell stops through 82.70. Offers.75/85, buy stops through 84.00 AUD/USD:  Offers 1.0440/50 (1.0450 barrier, 1.0443 (61.8% of the 1.0625-1.0150 fall ), tech res 1.0470/75. Bids 1.0400/20, sell stops through 1.0380 EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2250/60 and 1.2200/10(100 day MA 1.2210). Offers 1.2310/20 and 1.2340/50

EU commissioner Barnier: Europe has passed ‘peak’ of debt crisis Posted: 05 Nov 2012 11:44 PM PST Do we believe him boys and girls?

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