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Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Eurozone Sept retail sales -0.2% m/m, -0.8% y/y

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 02:02 AM PST

From  a revised +0.2% m/m, -0.9% y/y in August, and against forecasts of  -0.1%m/m and -1.0%y/y

According to Eurostat,  motorists were providing the biggest drag, economising on fuel spending

Commerzbank could cut 5,000-6,000 jobs as part of multi-billion cost-cut plans

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 01:50 AM PST

Die Zeit reporting :(

Roubini: Euro overvalued by more than 20%

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 01:27 AM PST

  • Euro region recession getting worse
  • US political system ‘dysfunctional’
  • US fiscal situation ‘unsustainable’
  • ECB monetary policy still too tight

Dr Doom speaking in Milan.

He’s said most, if not all, of the above before, so nothing earth-shattering.

EUR/USD little easier as comments hit Bloomberg, presently at 1.2836.

 

Cable backs off as sovereign sales cap…

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 01:19 AM PST

Talk in the street that an Asian central bank was selling just above the 1.6040 level. A break above 1.6050 at the moment looks  a little bit of a tall order ahead of the  55 day MA at 1.6053 and  tomorrow’s BOE rate decision.

We may however see some gravitation to the 1.6025 option strike rolling off at the NY cut and there are bids sitting down around 1.6000 ahead of stronger down towards 1.5950/60 which apparently hold sovereign and real money interest, so a fairly tight morning ‘s range may be on the cards .

High on the day has been 1.6043 and we’re presently sitting around 1.6014

Regarding that Greek vote…

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:39 AM PST

The debate apparently starts around 1000GMT but the vote tally won’t be known until around 2200 GMT.

Expectations are for the austerity vote to be narrowly passed despite some abstentions from  the Democratic Left , and  two PASOK MP’s  who plan to vote against

Time for a EUR/USD poll!!!

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:37 AM PST

Market seems rather indecisive so far this morning.

EUR/USD back down at 1.2845.

What’ll we see first 1.2750 or 1.2950?

Let’s see if Forexlive readers can point the way ;)

Reason/s for choice most welcome, but not obligatory.

BOE Offers Unltd Usd In 7-day Repo At 0.67%, 84-Day at 0.65%

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:30 AM PST

LONDON ((MNI) – The Bank Of England said Wednesday it was offering
an unlimited supply of U.S. dollars in both 7-day and 84-day repo
operation.

The settlement date on the 7-day op was Nov 8 maturing Nov 15 2012.
The Bank said the repo would be at a fixed-rate, with the rate to be set
at 0.67%.

The settlement date on the 84-day op was Nov 8 maturing Jan 31 2013.
The Bank said the repo would be at a fixed-rate, with the rate to
be set at 0.65%.

–London Bureau; Tel: +442076341655; email: ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: M$B$$$,M$$BE$]

Talk BIS sold EUR/USD

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:23 AM PST

In recent trade. No exact levels mentioned,  but probably in 1.2860/70 area.

EUR/USD has drifted lower, presently at 1.2853.

 

Swiss Oct CPI +0.1% m/m, -0.2% y/y

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:17 AM PST

Below forecasts of  +0.3% m/m and -0.1% y/y

Eerily quiet in early European trade

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:03 AM PST

EUR/USD sits at 1.2868, a mere 10 pips firmer than when I first sat down around two and a half hours ago.

US treasury yields slumped once it became clear Obama was to be re-elected, helping pressure the greenback.

However this rally in treasuries (lower yields) has reversed somewhat and dollar selling has slowed.

The benchmark 10 year yield sat at 1.6876% when I first arrived, from a North American close Tuesday up around 1.7489%, but has since rebounded to 1.7138% at writing.

Tricky market if you ask me, with little strong conviction seemingly evident.

Talk of buy orders clustered 1.2820/30 (200 dma 1.2827), sell orders clustered 1.2880/00, buy stops above. There is also some talk of stops through 1.2885, but they are thought to be relatively light.

Spanish Sept industrial production falls -7.0% y/y

Posted: 07 Nov 2012 12:01 AM PST

Sharply down from  a revised -2.5 (-3.2%) in August, and  the  13th consecutive month of falling production ( lowest since April 2012)

Obama Cites Deficits, Tax Code As Challenges Must Address

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 11:40 PM PST

By Brai Odion-Esene

WASHINGTON (MNI) – As he basked in the glow of his second presidential
election victory late Tuesday night, President Barack Obama vowed to get working
on the main challenges facing the country, singling out the nation’s massive
deficits and unwieldy tax code.

“For the United States of America, the best is yet to come,” Obama
said in victory speech before a crowd of supporters in Chicago. “I
return to the White House more determined and more inspired than ever
about the work there is to do.”

“And in the coming weeks and months I am looking forward to
reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the
challenges we can only solve together,” he said.

These include; reducing the nation’s deficit, reforming the tax
code, tackling the immigration system and getting the country off its
dependence on foreign oil, he said.

“Our economy is recovering,” he said, adding “we’ve got more work
to do.”

Obama acknowledged that there will be disagreement — “sometimes
fiercely” — over what approach to take.

“As it has been for more than two centuries, progress will come in
fits and starts,” he warned, “it’s not always a smooth path.”

Sharing common hopes and dreams will not end all the gridlock on Capitol
Hill or substitute for the need to build a consensus among lawmakers — and make
the difficult compromises needed to move the country forward, Obama said.

“But that common bond is where we must begin,” he said.

In weeks ahead, Obama said he also looks forward to sitting down
with defeated Republican challenger Mitt Romney and discussing ways to
move the country forward.

Romney warned in his concession speech that America is at a critical point,
“and at a time like this we can’t risk partisan bickering and political
posturing.”

“Our leaders have to reach across the aisle to do the people’s
work,” Romney urged.

Obama said the country needs to go forward. “We want our children
to live in an America that isn’t burdened by debt,” he said.

And despite the frustrations about the intransigence in Washington,
Obama said he has never been “more hopeful” about the future of the
country.

“We are not as divided as our politics suggest,” Obama declared.
“We remain more than a collection of red states and blue states.”

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

–email: besene@mni-news.com

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MC$$$$,MT$$$$,MFU$$$,MGU$$$]

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 11:27 PM PST

EUR/USD: Bids 1.2830 (200 day MA 1.2827) down to 1.2800, sell stops just below ahead of bids 1.2765/75. Tech res 1.2878 ( daily cloud top) Offers 1.2880/00 (tenkan line 1.2892), buy stops above  ahead of  offers 1.2940/50

GBP/USD:   Offers 1.6040/50 (55 day MA 1.6053) and 1.6090/10. Bids 1.6000/10 and 1.5950/60 (sovereigns, real money), sell stops through 1.5945

EUR/GBP:  Offers 0.8030/40 and 0.8065/75, tech res/offers 0.8090/00 (0.8092- 200 day MA). Bids 0.8000/10 sell stops below through 0.7980 ahead of tech support 0.7960/70 (100 day MA 0.7966, and 50% of 0.7755/0.8165 at 0.7960) and bids/tech 0.7945/50 (Oct 1 low 0.7948)

USD/JPY:  Offers from 80.30/50 and layered upwards from exporters, buy stops mixed in up through 80.85 and above 81.00 (barrier). Bids 79.80/90 from macro names/ momentum traders. Sell stops below ahead of larger bids  79.50/70

EUR/JPY:  Bids 102.50/60 and 102.00/20 (200 day MA 102.15, trendline support 102.00) sell stops through 101.80. Offers 103.30/50 and larger 103.80/00

AUD/JPY: Bids, 83.35/45 and 83.00/10 sell stops below and through  trend line support 82.80. Offers.83.90/00 buy stops above ahead of tech res 84.40/50 (Apr 27 high 84.51) and up at 84.70/75 (Apr 20 high)

AUD/USD:   Tech res 1.0470/75 (Sept 28 high 1.0474) ahead of offers 1.0490/00 (possible barrier 1.0500), buy stops above ahead of more offers 1.0510/20. Bids 1.0435/45 and 1.0400/10. Sell stops through 1.0400 and 1.0380

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2250/60 and 1.2200/10(100 day MA 1.22080). Offers 1.2310/20 and 1.2340/50

 

European stocks set to open firmer

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 11:03 PM PST

Financial bookies see DAX opening up as much as +0.6%, CAC 40 up as much as +0.3%

BOJ’s Shirakawa: BOJ’s joint statement with govt doesn’t mean BOJ will make policy decisions upon request from govt

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 10:57 PM PST

Okidoki.

  • Govt pressure not reason for joint statement

AUD/USD up on broad based USD weakness

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 10:43 PM PST

The barrier at 1.0450  (part of a presumed 1.0200-1.0450 DNT) has been taken out  on the rally from  early Asian lows of 1.0411 to a recent high of  1.0473. There’s some tech resistance here at 1.0474  (sept 28 high) and likely further option interest at 1.0500 with buy stops above ahead of offers 1.0510/20.

Support is now seen  towards 1.0440 and 1.0400 with sell stops on a break of the latter ahead of bids 1.0360/70

 

US Republicans Retain House, Democrats Keep Senate Control

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 10:40 PM PST

–American Public Keeps Control of Congress In Same Hands
–Republicans Expected To Hold 236 to 196 Majority In House
–Democrats Retain Narrow Senate Majority, Exceed Expectations

By John Shaw

WASHINGTON (MNI) – As American voters re-elected President Obama
Tuesday they also kept Republican control of the House and Democratic
control of the Senate.

While the final results are still being tallied, it appears the
Republicans will hold a 236 to 196 majority in the House in the next
Congress.

As of early Wednesday morning, Democrats are holding a 53 to 44
majority with three seats still unresolved.

For most of the year, political experts assumed that Republicans
would win control of the Senate, in large part because of the 33 Senate
elections held Tuesday. Democrats are defending 23 seats while the GOP
is defending only 10 seats.

However, several weak Republican senatorial candidates and the
surprise retirement of Republican senator Olympia Snowe gave Democrats
unanticipated opportunities.

Specifically, weak Republican candidates in Indiana, Florida, and
hampered GOP’s chances to win control of the upper chamber.

In key races:

In Arizona, Republican congressman Jeff Flake defeated Democrat
Richard Carmona, a former US surgeon general.

In Connecticut, Linda McMahon, a Republican businesswoman, was
defeated by Democratic congressman Chris Murphy, for the seat that Joe
Lieberman is vacating.

Indiana, Republicans State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was defeated
by Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly. Mourdock defeated Republican
senator Richard Lugar in the Republican primary this spring.

In Maine, Independent Angus King defeated both his Democratic and
Republican challengers, but has hinted he will caucus with Democrats.

In Massachusetts, incumbent Republican senator Scott Brown was
defeated by her Democratic rival, Elizabeth Warren, who has jumped ahead
in recent polls.

In Missouri, incumbent Democratic senator Claire McCaskill defeated
Republican congressman Todd Aiken.

In Wisconsin, former Republican governor Tommy Thompson was
defeated by Democratic congresswoman Tammy Baldwin.

And in Virginia, former Republican governor and senator George
Allen was defeated by former Democratic governor Tim Kaine.

** MNI Washington Bureau: (202) 371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MFU$$$,MCU$$$]

Francois Hollande lurches Right in historic u-turn to save French economy

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 10:18 PM PST

Love him or loathe him, latest from AEP at The Telegraph.

I really like those glasses alot……

BOJ’s Shirakawa: BOJ sees ending deflation crucial task

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 10:10 PM PST

  • BOJ to take appropriate policy to beat deflation
  • BOJ conducting powerful monetary policy
  • Japan’s economy weakening

A Tweet, An Asterisk, A Victory for Obama; Now,Big Challenges

Posted: 06 Nov 2012 10:10 PM PST

By Denny Gulino

WASHINGTON (MNI) – Inexorably and finally definitively the
projected electoral college votes piled up in Barack Obama’s favor
until, well before midnight Wednesday, the president himself tweeted,
“This happened because of you” and it was over.

Women, Latinos, seniors, the claim to have saved the auto industry
and a superb vote-gathering organization on the ground were advantages
that became too much for Mitt Romney to overcome.

Single women, the target of so many campaign ads depicting Romney’s
views as less than sympathetic — and who are a quarter of the
electorate — may have helped rewrite presidential election history.

They appeared to trump what had been calculated — mistakenly — to
be the electorate’s traditionally dominant concerns about the economy
and jobs.

Republican control of the House of Representatives was preserved
and strengthened, while the Senate stayed Democratic thanks to some
important and hardly assured races. The Dodd-Frank law also won, as one
of its original champions, Elizabeth Warren, upset Massachusetts Sen.
Scott Brown.

The money market mutual fund industry was another loser, as its
enemies prevailed in the White House to allow the appointment of more
like-minded replacements at the SEC.

As the Cleveland area’s Cuyahoga county remained in reserve like a
spare Obama cavalry, and then Nevada was projected to be in his column,
still before midnight, the weight of defeat quieted the Romney camp and
amplified the cheering at Obama’s Chicago venue. More Obama votes were
at that point expected in Florida and Virginia which had stayed too
close to call.

And the truism that had degenerated into a endlessly parroted bit
of punditry, that no president has won without Ohio, was again elevated
to be a pillar of political inevitability.

For those who called up the Drudge Report Web site to see what the
consistent outlet for conservative views would say, they saw a headline
listing only Romney’s popular vote total, at the time the largest, and
underneath that of Obama — with only an asterisk to signal the actual
result.

On Fox News, Republican strategist Karl Rove argued with the
anchors after Fox joined MSNBC in first projecting the Obama victory,
saying their call could not be the case.

One by one the TV’s networks’ experts followed the leaders, with
the Associated Press confirming the Obama victory at 11:39 p.m. ET.

It was the first presidential victory acknowledged by the winner on
social media and Obama’s full tweet proclaimed his new term within the
141-word limit. “This happened because of you. Thank you. We’re all in
this together. That’s how we campaigned, and that’s who we are. Thank
you. -bo,” Obama’s tweet said. Soon afterward his electoral votes
ratcheted past 290, a solid win over Romney’s 200 plus.

In Virginia, transformed from a bastion of Republicanism into a
swing state, Democrat and former Governor Tim Kaine denied George Allen
a return to Capitol Hill and in the process, ensured Democrats their
50th Senate vote. Both men spent or had spent on their behalf $80
million, more than in any other Senate race.

Another Democratic senator was elected in Illinois when the
Republican who beat the respected Richard Lugar in the primaries could
not prevent Rep. Joe Donnelly’s move from the House to the Senate.

In still another key Democratic Senate race victory, Sen. Clair
McCaskill stayed in the Senate representing Kansas, while the once
favored Rep. Todd Akin — the only Senate candidate to win an
endorsement from Romney — was punished for using the words “legitimate”
and “rape” in the same sentence.

In Wisconsin, Democrat Rep. Tammy Baldwin became the first openly
gay senator, beating former Governor Tommy Thompson — whose prominence
and reputation were once considered insurmountable.

As midnight passed, analyst after analyst plumbed the meaning of
Romney’s defeat, seeing fundamental shifts having taken place to create
a Democratic advantage in the Electoral College.

It seemed to be a demographic, perhaps tectonic, realignment that
had been discerned and embraced by the Obama team as much as it was
rejected by the Romney crew.

Women, Latino preferences and turnout, seniors and a sophisticated
plan to widen the voting base for Obama held sway, clearing the way for
Obama to now tackle all the issues that were never brought to the
campaign debate.

His approach to the challenge of the fiscal cliff, to the dwindling
borrowing power of the Treasury, to a debt-to-GDP ratio worse than
Europe’s, and to Ben Bernanke’s future beyond 2014 remains a mystery —
but the calendar ensures it won’t be for long.

** MNI Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **

[TOPICS: M$U$$$,MCU$$$,MGU$$$,MFU$$$,M$$FI$]


at 6:05 PM

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