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• UK Data: Fall In Q3 Mortgage Arrears, Repossessions – CML
• Spain gets its dosh
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up a touch, 4 bps at 5.74%
• EUR/USD lower. Some note MNI story
• Bad loans at Italy’s banks rose 15.3% in September- Bank of Italy
• As it’s quiet I’ve drawn up my Christmas present list
• China PBOC governor Zhou: Economy showing signs of improvement
• The Top 50 greatest films of all-time
• Seems funny…….
• FRANCE DATA: Sept sa trade deficit narrowed to bln…
• Spanish 10 year govt bond yield steady at 5.70% ahead of auctions
• French Budget Minister Cahuzac: France maintains 0.8% growth target for 2013
• EUR/USD poll within a poll
• Japan ESP Poll: Economists Revise Down Forecasts For 3rd Month
• Spain comes to the well this morning
• GERMANY DATA: September sa trade bal +E17.0bn;August.
• German September s.a trade surplus 17.0 bln
• Swiss unadj jobless rate at 2.9% in October
• European stocks seen opening firmer
• Japan Vice FinMin Okubo: Good that G20 communique included comment on FX

UK Data: Fall In Q3 Mortgage Arrears, Repossessions – CML Posted: 08 Nov 2012 02:00 AM PST LONDON (MNI) – There were slight falls in UK mortgage arrears and repossessions in the third quarter, according to Council of Mortgage Lenders data. The data suggest the continuing buoyancy of UK employment and still relatively low effective lending rates are ensuring borrowers are able to keep up with their mortgage payments. There were 8,200 repossessions in Q3, down from 8,500 in Q2 and amounting to just 0.07% of all loans. The cumulative total of properties in possession was 13,000 in Q3, down from 13,500 in Q2 and equivalent to 0.11% of all loans, down from 0.12% in Q2. The CML noted a total of 26,300 properties were taken into possession in the first three quarters of this year, which was an 8% drop on the same period a year ago. Arrears were also relatively low. There were 69,700 mortgages 6-12 months in arrears in Q3, down from 70,200 in Q2, amounting to just 0.62% of all loans. There was a slight rise in mortgages 3-6 months in arrears, with these climbing to 99,000 from 98,800 in Q2. The CML cited the tolerant approach of lenders as another factor supporting low repossessions. “The rate of repossession has continued to fall and it’s clear that lenders want to keep people in their homes,” CML director general Paul Smee said. -London bureau: +4420 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com [TOPICS: M$B$$$,MABDS$]

Spain gets its dosh Posted: 08 Nov 2012 01:54 AM PST Raises 4.763 billion against 3.5-4.5 billion target. Sold 992 mln 2015 bond.  Bid to cover 2.8, better than 2.0 at last auction.  Average yield 3.660%, improved from 3.956% at last auction Sold 3040 mln 2018 bond. Bid to cover ratio 1.6. Average yield 4.680%. Sold 731 mln 2032 bond. Bid to cover ratio 2.1 Average yield 6.328%. All in all good result, helping euro regain a little of its’ poise after earlier swoon. Light stops were tripped through 1.2735 on way to session low 1.2722, presently at 1.2728.

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield up a touch, 4 bps at 5.74% Posted: 08 Nov 2012 01:44 AM PST The MNI story also says that ECB not in hurry to launch OMT buying.

EUR/USD lower. Some note MNI story Posted: 08 Nov 2012 01:33 AM PST Our buddies at Market News running sourced story suggesting little chance Spain will seek ESM rescue package this year. The Italian bank bad loan data will have added to the pressure on the single currency.

Bad loans at Italy’s banks rose 15.3% in September- Bank of Italy Posted: 08 Nov 2012 01:31 AM PST Ughhh Private sector deposits held at Italy’s banks rose 5.7% in September y/y Loans to non-financial firms fell 3.2% in September y/y

As it’s quiet I’ve drawn up my Christmas present list Posted: 08 Nov 2012 01:21 AM PST I know you’ll all want to buy me a present, but unfortunately the list isn’t very long so it’ll have to be first come first served.  Just pop me an email at gerry@forexlive.com telling me what you want to get me, so we can avoid duplications. 1) Harley Davidson motorcycle 2) Litre bottle of Bushmills 10 year old malt 3) Cotton socks 4)  Epsom printer ink 5) Heritage samurai sword (maybe one of our Japanese readers could get me that) 6)  Hannah Barlow Royal Doulton vase (preferably one with cattle engraving) 7) Car polish Sandwich maker (why has that come up as a smiley face?) 9) Slow cooker 10)  Lana Del Rey CDs 11)  Rolex watch 12)  Cash

China PBOC governor Zhou: Economy showing signs of improvement Posted: 08 Nov 2012 01:02 AM PST Phew, thank goodness for that…… EUR/USD spikes to 1.2774 or was it 1.2775?  Central bank will keep policy continuity and flexibility in 2013 (so sensible the Chinese) Central bank has room to adjust policy to cope with global uncertainty US fiscal cliff poses uncertainty for China economy (poses uncertainty for everyone mate)

The Top 50 greatest films of all-time Posted: 08 Nov 2012 12:36 AM PST I put this up yesterday, but many of you may have been asleep then. Well, in the first top 20 I really liked 9,14,17 and 20.  I think 9 was my favourite though. What film would you put in the top 20 that they missed. I’d certainly put in Shawshank Redemption.

Seems funny……. Posted: 08 Nov 2012 12:01 AM PST After the US election I’ve become fixated with following S&P futures. They’ve ticked up 4 pips or so in recent trade. EUR/USD tad firmer at 1.2767. Is it home time yet?

FRANCE DATA: Sept sa trade deficit narrowed to bln… Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:50 PM PST FRANCE DATA: Sept sa trade deficit narrowed to E5.033 bln from E5.259 bln in August (revised from -E5.286 bln). - Deficit below expected; MNI survey median forecast -E5.2 bln - Sept sa exports -1.5% m/m; sa imports -1.9% m/m

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield steady at 5.70% ahead of auctions Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:41 PM PST EUR/USD is also pretty steady as well.  Sits at 1.2760, up some 10 pips since my arrival around two and a half hours ago. Whoopeeeeee!!!

French Budget Minister Cahuzac: France maintains 0.8% growth target for 2013 Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:34 PM PST Hooray!!!! EU Commission French growth revision not ‘lucid’ (I seem to remember the numbers were out yesterday. Guess EU commission aren’t seeing 0.8% growth in 2013) French govt to maintain 3% 2013 deficit target (bravo!!!)

EUR/USD poll within a poll Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:26 PM PST As we’ve currently got a 1.2650-1.2850 poll on the go, and given it’s so quiet,  how about a poll within a poll We sit at 1.2755. What’ll we see first 1.2705 or 1.2805? Reason/s for choice always welcome, but not obligatory. I get the feeling the market is still pretty bearish, but there also seems to be some nervousness of running into renewed sovereign buying interest, especially the Middle Eastern variety. Ho hum.

Japan ESP Poll: Economists Revise Down Forecasts For 3rd Month Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:20 PM PST — See Separate Tables for Details TOKYO (MNI) – Economists have revised down their GDP and CPI forecasts for both fiscal 2012 and 2013 for the third straight month while continuing to project near-zero economic growth in fiscal 2014, the latest monthly survey by the Japan Center for Economic Research released on Thursday showed. The organization polled 40 economists and research institutes from Oct. 25 to Nov. 1 for its ESP Forecast Survey, and 39 answered on the growth and inflation outlook as well as the BOJ’s monetary policy stance. The previous survey was conducted from Sept. 25 to Oct. 2. In the near term, economists expect GDP for the July-September quarter of 2012 (data due out on Nov. 12) to contract an annualized 2.83%, revised down sharply again from their previous average forecast for a 0.31% drop. That would be the first contraction in five quarters after +0.7% in Q2 and +5.3 in Q1 this year as the global slowdown and fading effects of fiscal stimulus are hurting exports and production. Japan’s economy last contracted by an annualized 1.3% in April-June 2011 and tumbled 7.9% in the previous quarter hit by the earthquake disaster. The latest ESP forecast showed that the average economist forecast for Q4 GDP was also revised down further to -0.10% drop from +0.37% n the previous survey, indicating the economy is now in a downward cycle. As for fiscal 2012 ending March 31, 2013, economists on average forecast GDP will grow 1.16%, revised down further from +1.71% forecast in the previous survey. Economists on average project a 1.40% rise in GDP in fiscal 2013, revised down from +1.54% projected the previous month. For fiscal 2014, economists see only a 0.17% rise in GDP, down from +0.32% last month, when they provided their first forecasts for that year. The survey showed that the average forecast for core CPI (excluding perishables) in fiscal 2012 was -0.11% y/y, revised down further from -0.08% forecast in the previous survey. Economists on average expect core consumer prices to show a 0.10% rise in fiscal 2013, down slightly from +0.11% predicted the previous month. This would still be the first y/y gain since +1.2% in fiscal 2008. They forecast that the core inflation reading will mark a 2.36% increase in fiscal 2014, revised down slightly from +2.38% projected last month. These forecasts are based on the government’s plan to hike the 5% sales tax to 8% in April 2014. The survey also showed that 31 economists predict further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan in coming months, mostly in December or October, up from 29 last month. Meanwhile, eight economists expect the BOJ to start unwinding its monetary easing, in October 2013 or later, down from 10 in the previous survey. At its latest meeting on Oct. 30, the BOJ’s policy board voted unanimously to raise the target of the bank’s financial asset-buying program for the second month in a row, citing grower downside risks to a recovery from the economic slump and deflation. –email: skodama@mni-news.com –email: msato@mni-news.com [TOPICS: MAJDS$,MMJBJ$,M$A$$$,M$J$$$]

Spain comes to the well this morning Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:14 PM PST Spain selling new 4.50% January 2018 Bono, tapping 3.75% October 2015 Bono and 5.75% July 2032 Obligaciones. Target 3.5-4.5 bln euros Results due around 09:30 GMT.

GERMANY DATA: September sa trade bal +E17.0bn;August. Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:10 PM PST GERMANY DATA: September sa trade bal +E17.0bn;August rev +E18.2bn (+E18.3bn) – Germany September nsa trade surplus +E16.9bn; August unrev +16.3 – Germany September nsa c/a surplus +E16.3bn;August rev +E12.5bn (+E11.1bn) – See MNI’s Mainwire for more details

German September s.a trade surplus 17.0 bln Posted: 07 Nov 2012 11:00 PM PST Slightly above Reuter’s median forecast of 16.8 bln.

Swiss unadj jobless rate at 2.9% in October Posted: 07 Nov 2012 10:45 PM PST As expected. Seasonally adjusted rate 3.0%, also as expected.

European stocks seen opening firmer Posted: 07 Nov 2012 10:43 PM PST Financial bookies see FTSE up as much as +0.6%, DAX up as much as +0.7% and CAC 40 up as much as +0.8%.

Japan Vice FinMin Okubo: Good that G20 communique included comment on FX Posted: 07 Nov 2012 10:26 PM PST Absolutely fab. USD/JPY sits at 79.88. Talk of some sell stops gathered through 79.70.

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