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Greek October retail sales -18.1 y/y
Angela Merkel warns crisis is ‘far from over’
Here’s why there’s still a 2-1 chance of a fiscal cliff deal before the deadline
Meditative trading – An urgent need
Negative rates on deposits would force eurozone core banks to repay their LTRO funding
EU exit will not shelter UK from the economic storm
EUR/USD touch easier in Asia
European stocks seen lower
For euro, all eyes on ECB’s playbook….
The US ‘cliff’ – one small part of a huge debt crisis
Ideas Corner/December 31st
ForexLive Asian Wrap for Monday 31Dec2012: Big jump in China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
2012 Cliff approaches
More Greek Punishment
Post-Cliff … what’s next?
China / Japan standoff on Senkakus – Chinese government think tank: Conflict ‘Inevitable’
Data: December HSBC China Manufacturing PMI 51.5 (vs. 50.5 in November)
Incoming data: December HSBC China Manufacturing PMI at 0145GMT
Aust Data: November Private Sector Credit 0.0% (vs. +0.1% M/M for Oct)
UK Data: December Lloyds Business Barometer 20 (vs. 17 prior)

Greek October retail sales -18.1 y/y

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 02:02 AM PST

Demonstrably weaker than the -11.8% seen in September

Here’s hoping 2013 starts to bring some good news for Greece……

Angela Merkel warns crisis is ‘far from over’

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 12:44 AM PST

‘The economic environment next year will not be easier, but more difficult.’

Happy Dayz

EUR/USD pretty steady at 1.3190 after slight dip to session low 1.3176.

Here’s why there’s still a 2-1 chance of a fiscal cliff deal before the deadline

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 12:22 AM PST

Business Insider

Glass half full kinda guy.

Meditative trading – An urgent need

Posted: 31 Dec 2012 12:03 AM PST

Right, hands up those who meditate before/after their trading day….

I took a transcendental meditation course awhile back. I’d think it would help my trading, if I ever did any.

Negative rates on deposits would force eurozone core banks to repay their LTRO funding

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 11:55 PM PST

A little light reading.

EU exit will not shelter UK from the economic storm

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 11:42 PM PST

Is it me; I just can’t see the UK leaving the EU in the foreseeable future.

EUR/USD touch easier in Asia

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 10:53 PM PST

U.S. fiscal cliff concerns weigh.

Talk of sell stops through 1.3175 before buy orders clustered 1.3150/60. More stops through 1.3140.

Sell orders seen clustered 1.3230/50. Guess there might be some buy stops above there, but can’t confirm.

European stocks seen lower

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 10:34 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE opening down as much as -0.5%, CAC40 down as much as -0.6%.

Stalemate in U.S. budget talks weighing. U.S. Senate to convene at 16:00 GMT.

Germany, Austria Denmark, Finland, , Italy, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland on holiday (they ain’t silly)

London closes early at 12:30 GMT.

France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain and Portugal closing at 13:00 GMT.

For euro, all eyes on ECB’s playbook….

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 10:19 PM PST

Says the WSJ

The US ‘cliff’ – one small part of a huge debt crisis

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 10:10 PM PST

Latest from Liam

Ideas Corner/December 31st

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 10:05 PM PST

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em,

ForexLive Asian Wrap for Monday 31Dec2012: Big jump in China HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 08:56 PM PST

Despite members of Congress being in Washington on a Sunday there was no vote on the Fiscal Cliff, and very little public sign of much progress. The Senate will reconvene at 11am ET (1600GMT) on Monday
December HSBC China Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5, vs. 50.5 in November and 50.9 for the “Flash” December 14 reading.
51.5 is the highest reading since May 2011
The "New Orders" sub index came in at 52.9; the highest since January 2011
Export orders were revised down slightly, to 49.2 & Inventory rose to 49.5

Australia: November Private Sector Credit M/M came in unchanged at 0.0%, vs. +0.1% M/M for October & +0.2% as the market expectation (The Y/Y figure was +3.5% – vs. prior at +3.8% & Market expectation at +3.7%)
Data from the UK – December Lloyds Business Barometer 20 (vs. 17 prior)
The ECB’s Weidmann and Asmussen both gave weekend interviews in the European press.
Merkel recorded a New year’s address, saying the euro zone sovereign debt crisis is far from over but is progress is happening

Although Tokyo was on holiday, leaving the markets relatively illiquid and susceptible to swings on news announcements, ranges were subdued.
Of note was the NZD/USD & AUD/USD, which both put on 45 points over the course of the session, but falling away a little as I post this wrap.

2012 Cliff approaches

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 08:41 PM PST

Unless something really weird happens, I’m going over the 2012 Cliff in a few hours.

To all ForexLive readers, thank-you for all the support and suggestions since I joined a few weeks ago. I’m really looking forward to next year. Have a happy and safe New Years Eve everyone – and of course a happy and safe 2013!

More Greek Punishment

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 07:47 PM PST

Vomit, bleeding nipples and hallucinations. Why would anyone in their right mind run the Spartathlon?

245km (or almost six consecutive marathons)
within 36 hours
the heat of the Greek day,
plunge in temperatures when darkness falls
the route includes a series of ascents, among them a 1,200-metre mountain pass negotiated in the dead of night

Post-Cliff … what’s next?

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 07:38 PM PST

Ever the optimist … these guys have to agree to something, sometime … right?

And then we can move on, right?

Errr …

After US ‘fiscal cliff’ dive, more battles, new cliffs

there will be no post-cliff peace in Washington … other partisan fights loom, all over the issue that has paralyzed the capital for the past two years: federal spending.

The first will come in late February when the Treasury Department runs out of borrowing authority and has to come to Congress to get the debt ceiling raised.

… next is likely in late March, when a temporary bill to fund the government runs out, confronting Congress with a deadline to act or face a government shutdown.

The third will possibly be whenever the temporary bill replacing the temporary bill expires.

China / Japan standoff on Senkakus – Chinese government think tank: Conflict ‘Inevitable’

Posted: 30 Dec 2012 06:29 PM PST

A newspaper article cites a Chinese Government think-tank as saying China-Japan conflict over the disputed Senkaku Islands is inevitable:

The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) also said in its annual report that the two countries' relationship will enter into a highly unstable period.

Chinese think tank: conflict inevitable between Japan, China over Senkakus

There’s more here too: Abe’s foreign policy places importance on U.S. to counter China

In other news conferences immediately before and after his inauguration, Abe emphasized that, "Japan-China relations are the biggest challenge of the 21st century (for Japan) in the fields of diplomacy and security" and "I will reconstruct the relationship of trust of the Japan-U.S. alliance."