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Monday, December 10, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Italian Final Q3 GDP confirmed at -0.2% q/q, -2.4% y/y

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 02:05 AM PST

From -0.7% in Q2 q/q according to ISTAT

Euro zone sentix index rises to -16.8 in December

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 01:35 AM PST

From -18.8 in November.  Slightly weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of -16.0.

Italian October Industrial output falls -1.1% m/m from a revised -1.3% in Sept, -6.2% y/y

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 01:04 AM PST

Well down from Reuters expectations of  a -0.2% m/m fall, -4.3% y/y  :(

Working day adj-6.2% y/y (exp -4.3%) from a revised -5.o% fall in Sept

Italy’s bond auctions scheduled for this week to go ahead as planned

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 12:43 AM PST

Says a source close to the Italian Treasury.

As far as I can see auction/s due Thursday 13th.

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 12:33 AM PST

EUR/USD:  Bids, 1.2870/80 sell stops below through 1.2870. ahead of more bids 1.2850/60 (1.2949-38.2% retracement of 1.2661-1.3127 rally) Offers 1.2920/30 (daily cloud top 1.2924) and 1.2940/50 , buy stops just above

GBP/USD:  Tech support 1.6015 (38.2% of 1.5828-1.6131 rally Nov-Dec rally) ahead of more bids 1.5890/10. Sell stops through 1.5985 ahead of tech support/bids 1.5945/55 (100 day MA 1.5949). Offers 1.6040/50, 1.6090/00 and 1.6115/25 (1.6124- 61.8% of Sep/Nov fall) and likely buy stops above.

EUR/GBP: Offers o.8090/00 and 0.8140/50 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids tech supp/options 0.8040/50 and 0.8015/25 (0.8025 cloud base) ahead of tech supp 0.7990/00 (100 day MA 0.7992)

USD/JPY: Bids 82.20/30 small stops just below ahead of more bids 82.00/10 sell stops below  through 82.00 and 81.85 but stronger bids 81.60/70, with sell stops below through 81.50. Strong offers 82.60/80 (exporters) buy stops through 82.80 ahead of large offers 82.90/00 (barrier 83.00) very large buy stops just above.

EUR/JPY:  Offers 106.50/60 and 106.90/10 buy stops above through 107.20 ahead of large offers 107.80/00 ahead of barrier (108). Bids 106.20/30 and 106.00/20, sell stops below.

AUD/JPY:  Bids 86.20/30 and 85/95 (85.96 tenkan line) possible sell stops just below ahead of bids 85.40/50, sell stops through 85.40.  Offers /tech res 86.50/60 buy stops above ahead of tech res 86.70/75 (86.72/74 Friday high and  Apr 2 high)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0440/50 possible small sell stops below ahead of more bids, 1.0380/10 (kijun line 1.0401, 100 day MA 1.0396, also cloud top 1.0387) ahead of large bids 1.0350/60 with more sell stops below. Offers 1.0490/10 (importers), more ahead of barrier at 1.0525 and 1.0550. CTA buy stops above there ahead of larger tech res 1.0560/70 (13 Sept high 1.0569)

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2300/10, possible sell stops through 1.2290 ahead of tech support 1.2260/54 ( 100 day MA 1.2262) . Offers 1.2325/35 and 1.2345/55 (kijun line 1.2349) ahead of tech res 1.2405/15 (1.2413 200 day MA)

The lorry that just ran over the euro bears……..

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 12:32 AM PST

Had a Middle Eastern license plate.

Don’t it always :)

We’re back above 1.2900, presently at 1.2902.

Spain Economy Minister: Uncertainties about Italy have contagion effect on Spain

Posted: 10 Dec 2012 12:19 AM PST

  • Spain has no plans for additional austerity measures
  • Spain studying bailout, will take the decision it considers best for Spain
  • Some signs of optimism in Spanish economy
  • Spanish economy will fall by about 1.3-1.4% this year

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield rises 13 bps on day to 5.62%.

 

French Oct industrial output falls -0.7%m/m

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:46 PM PST

From an unrevised -2.7% in September  (median forecast was +0.3%)

October Mfg  industry output  fell 0.9% m/m from -3.4% in Sept

Italy’s 10 year BTP-bund spread widens to 349 bps

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:40 PM PST

From 325 bps late Friday after Monti decision to resign.

Single currency under renewed pressure in early Europe, back down at 1.2885.

Talk of buy orders clustered 1.2870/80 and more around 1.2850.

Sell orders clustered up at 1.2920/30.

French Nov industriual business climate indicator falls to 91 from 92 in Oct ..

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:36 PM PST

Banque De France suggest’s  GDP may shrink 0.1% in Q4, with the French car industry particularly noted to be running out of va va voom…

Greek extends BuyBack offer

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:26 PM PST

Extended to Dec 11 (1200 GMT)…

Reuters/Bloomberg reporting

EUR/USD poll-time!!

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:07 PM PST

EUR/USD sits at 1.2910.

We’ll give the euro bulls a 10 pip headstart.

That’ll we see first 1.2800 or 1.3000

Reason/s for choice as always appreciated, but not obligatory.

 

German Oct sa Trade surplus Eur 15.2 bln from a revised Eur 16.9 bln in Sept

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:04 PM PST

Reuters consensus was for  Eur 16.1 bln

Oct sa exports rose +0.3% m/.m, Imports +2.5% m/m, unadjusted  exports +10.6% y/y, imports +6.0% y/y

OctC/A surplus Eur 13.6 bln from a  revised 17.23 bln in Sept

AUD/USD holding steady into Europe’s open..

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 11:00 PM PST

Despite some weaker than expected Chinese import/ export data this morning, the pair’s continuing to defy gravity and seems content in a  1.0465-91 range so far in the Asian session.

Talk of exporter bids now sitting down in the 1.0460/70 zone  are keeping the downside intact with more down in the 1.0440/50 area, but the myriad of offers around 1.0500 and above remain a hurdle for the bulls.

There’s talk also of option barriers up at 1.0525 and 1.0550 but offers ahead lie from 1.0500/10  from importers, corporates  and murmerings of possible RBA commercial interest, along with the usual option related offers  ahead of the barrier levels.

EUR/AUD’s  slip appears to be losing momentum  after an early dip in Asia to 1.2288, and has some tech support now around 1.2260/65 where the 100 day MA comes into play at 1.2262. Initial offers seen around 1.2325/35 and 1.2345/55 (kijun line 1.2348), but the pair needs to re-challenge the  200 day MA  up at 1.2413 to turn the focus higher again.

AUD’s sitting around 1.0478 with the EUR/AUD at 1.2315

European stocks seen opening pretty flat

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 10:42 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE, DAX and CAC 40 opening up around +0.1%.  Think we’ll call that flat.

Europe clings to scorched-earth ideology as depression deepens

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 10:20 PM PST

Lagarde say US needs a balanced solution for ‘fiscal cliff’

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 10:16 PM PST

In an interview with CNN yesterday the IMF chief said the US needed a combination of automatic spending cuts and tax hikes to take effect in January

“My view, personally, is that the best way to go forward is to have a balanced approach that takes into account both increasing the revenue, which means, you know, either raising taxes or creating new sources of revenue, and cutting spending,” Lagarde said in the pre-taped interview aired on Sunday.

She said the fiscal woes are now the biggest threat to the U.S. economy which is less vulnerable to what happens outside, in Europe for instance.

“It is more exposed to its own difficulties and to its own issues, than to what happens elsewhere in the world, because it is such a large player.”

Lagarde predicted the immediate aftermath of falling off the ” fiscal cliff” would be “lack of confidence” and the markets would react very quickly.

(Xinhua News)

 

Athens may ask for additional buyback offers…

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 10:07 PM PST

Greece is looking to top up offers already received in its bond buy back scheme today taking tenders to Eur 30 bln from the  the currently received Eur 25-27 bln according to  an anonymous senior government official

Athens plans to buy back bonds with a face value of about 30 billion euros at deeply discounted prices to lower its debt load. A deadline for bondholders to submit offers expired on Friday. A Greek government official said on Saturday that Athens had received offers of about that sum.

The officials’ comments confirm a report earlier on Sunday by television station Mega, which said that Athens was very close to hitting the 30-billion euro mark and that it might renew the invitation for a short period to collect additional bids from Greek banks on standby to provide them.

By Friday Greece received offers for at least 15-16 billion euros from foreign investors and about 10-11 billion from Greek banks, Mega said.

Greek banks, which hold about 17 billion euros of bonds, said on Friday they would participate in the deal but did not reveal how many of their bonds they were willing to exchange. Their boards authorized management on Friday to offer up to 100 percent of lenders’ bondholdings.

The buyback accounts for about half of a 40-billion euro EU/IMF debt relief package for Athens agreed in November. Its success will ensure that the IMF, which contributes about a third of Greece’s bailout loans, will stay on board of the rescue.

More… ekathimerini

Italy Front-Runner Vows Steady Hand

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 09:59 PM PST

Italy’s likely next leader Pier Luigi Bersani is pledging to uphold Italy’s current economic commitments and not unravel the current Monti reforms if he’s elected

“We will respect the very stringent commitments taken…and we will take them on as our own,” Mr. Bersani said in an interview at a small hotel in his hometown in Italy’s northern Emilia Romagna region over the weekend.

Italy’s now looking to hold elections as early as February, expediting Monti’s departure and opening up a few months of political  uncertainty as the country looks to get back on a democratic footing

More .… WSJ (Google the headline for the full story)

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 09 Dec 2012 09:36 PM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2800, 1.2885, 1.2900, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3055

USD/JPY: 82.20, 82.70, 83.00, 83.50

EUR/JPY: 105.95, 106.75,

GBP/USD: 1.6000, 1.6200

EUR/GBP:0.8185

AUD/USD: 1.0435, 1.0450, 1.0465, 1.0525

USD/SEK: 6.6260


at 6:07 PM

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