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Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Swiss ZEW investor sentiment -15.5

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 02:04 AM PST

Improved from -27.9 in November.

Euro zone October industrial production -1.4% m/m, -3.6% y/y

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 02:00 AM PST

Weaker than expected.

Reuters’ median forecasts had been for +0.2%, -2.3% respectively.

UK November jobless claims -3k, better than expected

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 01:30 AM PST

Reuters median forecast having called for +7k.

Claimant count rate 4.8%, as expected.

Ilo jobless falls by 82,000 in 3 months through October.

Ilo unemployment rate for October 7.8%, as expected.

I have to admit the relative resiliency of the UK jobs market continues to surprise me…….

Talk of decent sell orders lined up ahead of 83.00

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 01:10 AM PST

No surprise.

Talk of Japanese exporter sell orders 82.95/00.

Talk of circa two yards of dollars on the offer in that area.

We’re at 82.88 having been as high as 82.94.

UPDATE:  $2 bln (yards) sounds like an awful lot, and indeed it is.   But one should remember some very large amounts can be traded at important junctures in this pairing.  Still probably enough though for a little stall ;)

 

USD/JPY extends rally

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 01:00 AM PST

Amid talk of hedge fund buying. We’re up at 82.92, knocking on the door of well-documented 83.00 barrier option interest.

Recent reports have ‘huge’ stop loss buy orders lined up just North of the barrier interest which would suggest a decent spike.  Why am I not convinced? Maybe I’ve just become too jaded…..

Italy’s off to the well today..

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 12:27 AM PST

The Tesoro is looking to issue Eur 6.5 bln of  new 12 month Dec 2013 BOT’s . Last month’s auction saw yields of 1.762% and cover 1.76.

Results are due just after 1000GMT

Goldman Sachs economist: Says Australia central bank may cut rates to 2% in 2013

Posted: 12 Dec 2012 12:17 AM PST

Dow Jones reports.

  • Says strong A$ will force RBA rate cuts
  • Goldman Sachs’ new long range Australia forecasts show growth through 2016

Meanwhile back at the ranch, AUD/USD trading at 3 month high of 1.0540.   Barrier option interest at 1.0550 looms.

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 11:33 PM PST

EUR/USD:  Bids 1.2970/90, some sell stops through 1.2970 ahead of bids 1.2950/60 (1.2949-38.2% of 1.2662/1.3127) and more sell stops below. Tech res 1.3010/15 (Tues high 1.3014), offers 1.3030/50 and 1.3080/00 (Dec 6 high 1.3087)

GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6080/90, 1.6055/65 (cloud top 1.6065, tankan line 1.6059), tech support 1.6015 (38.2% of 1.5828-1.6131 rally Nov-Dec rally) ahead of more bids 1.6000/10). Tech res 1.6120/25 (1.6124- 61.8% of Sep/Nov fall) some buy stops above ahead of better offers 1.6140/50

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8080/90, tech res above 0.8120/25 (Dec 6 high 0.8123) .Bids/ tech supp 0.8045/55 (0.8046 cloud base 0.8054 200 day MA) and 0.8020/30 ahead of tech supp 0.7990/00 (100 day MA 0.7998)

USD/JPY: Bids 82.40/50 ahead of more bids 82.00/10 sell stops below through 82.00 and 81.85 but stronger bids 81.60/70, with more sell stops below through 81.50. Offers from 82.80(exporters) ahead of large offers 82.90/00 (barrier 83.00) very large buy stops just above. Ahead of tech res 83.25/35 ( 83.31  Apr 2 high)

EUR/JPY:  Offers  107.80/00 ahead of barrier (108), buy stops above. Ahead of tech res 108.30/40 (April 5 high 108.40). Bids 107.25/35 and 107.00/10, (tenkan line 106.97) likely sell stops just below ahead of bids/tech supp 106.50./60

AUD/JPY:  Bids 86.90/00, and 86.70/80.   Offers/tech  87.50/60 (87.58  March 27 high)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0500/10 and 1.0460/70  ell stops below through 1.0450 ahead of more bids, 1.0400/15 (kijun line 1.0414, 100 day MA 1.0401,. Offers 1.040/50 (barrier 1.0550) large buy stops above both ahead of larger tech res 1.0560/70 (13 Sept high 1.0569, trend line res) and 1.0615/25 (Aug/Sept highs)

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2300/10, possible sell stops through 1.2290 ahead of tech support 1.2265/750 (100 day MA 1.2273. Offers 1.2350/60 and 1.2380/00 ahead of tech res 1.2405/15 (1.2412- 200 day MA)

Another hectic start for EUR/USD

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 11:28 PM PST

I find the two weeks before Christmas among the most difficult to be an analyst.  It’s normally a case of looooooong periods of inactivity interspersed with the odd burst of activity.  Decent-sized orders/interest impact more than normal in increasingly thinning out markets, ughhh.

Ayways we’re at 1.3003.

Yesterday we had reports of buy stops through 1.3020 and that’s still the case.

Meanwhile buy orders clustered down at 1.2970/80.

German Nov Final CPI -0.1% m/m, +1.9% y/y

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 11:03 PM PST

As expected.

Final HICP -0.2% m/m, +1.9% y/y from  exp  -0.1%, +2.0%

European stocks set to open marginally firmer

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 10:44 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE opening up around +0.1%, DAX up around +0.3% and CAC 40 up around +0.5%

Fed set to expand its monetary policy

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 10:28 PM PST

This morning’s economic releases

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 10:27 PM PST

All times GMT:

0700 – German Nov final CPI  exp -0.1%m/m, +1.9% y/y  (unchanged). Final Nov HICP  expected -0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y (unchanged)

0745 – French Nov CPI exp flat m/m, +1.6% y/y ( from +0.2% and +1.9%),  Nov HICP expected flat m/m and +1.8% y/y from +0.2%m/m and  +2.1% y/y

0745 – French Oct C/A, last Eur -3.3bln

0930- – UK Oct Average earnings , exp 1.9%, from 1.8%, Nov Claimant count expected 7k from 10.1k, Count rate expected unchanged at 4.8%

0930- UK Oct ILO unemployment expected unchanged at 7.8%

1000- Swiss Dec Credit suisse ZEW, last -27.9

1000 –  EU Oct Industrial Production expected flat m/m -2.4% y/y from -2.5% m/m and -2.3% y/y

1000 –  Portuguese Nov CPI , expected -0.1%m/m, +2.2% y/y. (from +0.3% m/m and +2.1% y/y)

1045 –  BOE’s Dale speaks

 

As U.S. approaches debt limit, Treasury readies ‘extraordinary’ measures

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 10:15 PM PST

Nikkei 225 closes up 0.59% at 9,581.46

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 10:14 PM PST

The broader TOPIX index rose 0.66% to 791.29

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 09:54 PM PST

 

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

Nearby ones include…

 

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3075

USD/JPY: 82.20, 82.25, 82.30, 82.40, 82.50, 83.00

EUR/GBP:  0.8100

AUD/USD: 1.0500, 1.0525

UK gets set for battle to defend City from EU bank union

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 09:42 PM PST

The PM and Chancellor are drawing up battle plans to defend the City of London’s status as the world’s leading financial centre, to counter the threat that the  powerful 17 country euro bloc will  determine ‘banking union’ rules rules in favour of Paris and Frankfurt at the expense of the UK.

David Cameron’s looking for some safeguards  for the city at a 2 day summit beginning tomorrow

More.. UK Independent

UN chief Ban Ki-Moon ‘deplores’ N Korean Missile launch…

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 09:29 PM PST

It’s a ‘clear violation’ of the security council resolution 1874, and he’s  concerned the ‘provocative act’ may have a negative impact on peace and stability

Reuters reporting

Uncertainty in Greece as buyback programme misses target

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 09:16 PM PST

After last night’s conference call, Finance Ministers from the 17 nation euro bloc area will now discuss the results of the buyback operation at a Brussels meeting on Thursday morning.

The buy back operation attracted Euro 31.8 bln, but the average price paid was above  expectations so the total debt reduction fell short of target , leading to  a shortfall of around Eur 450 mln (equating to debt of 126.6% of GDP by 2020… above the 124% target imposed by the IMF as a condition in order to receive the next bailout tranche)

More…..  UK Telegraph

Ideas corner- 12 Dec 2012

Posted: 11 Dec 2012 09:06 PM PST

Morning all from a frosty foggy Europe

Please post any bright ideas or comments you’d like to share with your fellow readers here..


at 6:06 PM

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