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Eurozone Nov Inflation -0.2% m/m +2.2 y/y
Today’s option expiries
Rajoy: ‘Today we don’t need’ ECB bond buying mechanism
EUR/USD back below 1.3100. You remember these words from Merkel yesterday
German December manufacturing PMI 46.3
French December flash manufacturing PMI 44.6
More Moscovici: Euro crisis in the process of being resolved
French FinMin: Maintenance of triple-A rating by Fitch an encouragement and motivating force
Fitch on France
Fitch affirms France at ‘AAA’; outlook negative
I thought I might hear………
Reuters poll: 14 out of 19 economists expect BOJ to ease monetary policy at Dec 19-20 meeting
European stocks set to open flat to very marginally firmer
Ideas Corner/December 14th
European Flash PMIs coming up later
ForexLive Asia Wrap Fri. 14Dec2012: Yen … tankin’ on the Tankan
Japan: Oct. Industrial Production -4.5% YoY (-4.3% prelim.)
Japan: Oct. Capacity Utilization +1.6% MoM (-5.5% in Sept.)
Japan: Oct. Industrial Production 1.6% MoM (1.8% prelim.)
PBOC’s Chan: US QE3 partly leads to Yuan inflow to China (+ more)

Eurozone Nov Inflation -0.2% m/m +2.2 y/y

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 02:02 AM PST

In line with consensus

Ex energy, unprocessed food -0.1% m/m, +1.6% y/y ( expected -0.1, +1.5%)

Nov ionflation ex food, booze and fags -0.1% m/m, +1.4% y/y

Eurozone Q3 unemployment -0.2% q/q, -0.7% y/y according to Eurostat

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 01:37 AM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1.2950, 1.3000, 1.3050, 1.3060, 1.3080, 13100

USD/JPY: 82.75(L) 82.95, 83.10, 83.50 (L), 83.75(L)

GBP/USD: 1.6115, 1.6150, 1.6160

AUD/USD: 1.0420, 1.0490, 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600

USD/CHF: 0.9350

NZD/USD: 0.8400

USD/CAD: 0.9990

Rajoy: ‘Today we don’t need’ ECB bond buying mechanism

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 01:21 AM PST

Comments came out about 25 minutes ago on Bloomberg.

Will use ECB bond buying only if necessary
Spain’s main problem is credit
Spain, others need policies to boost growth
Germany’s position has been ‘very constructive’
Spain banks will pay back bailout loan themselves (what a novel idea, paying back your own debts)

EUR/USD back below 1.3100. You remember these words from Merkel yesterday

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:57 AM PST

Europe cannot live alone from services sector, need industrial production in Europe…….or words to that effect.

The market has taken its’ cue from the weaker than expected German manufacturing PMI rather than the stronger than expected services PMI.

We’re back down at 1.3077,

Talk of buy orders lined up from 1.3060 to 1.3040.

UPDATE: As I’m typing this, euro zone PMI has come in as follows

Composite 47.3, stronger than Reuters’ median forecast of 46.8, a nine-month high!

Manufacturing 46.3, weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of 46.6

Services 47.8, stronger than Reuters’ median forecast of 47.0

German December manufacturing PMI 46.3

Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:28 AM PST

Weaker that Reuters’ median forecast of 47.2.

On the otherhand services PMI has come in at 52.1, demonstrably stronger that Reuters’ median forecast of 50.0.

Composite PMI 50.5, up from final 49.2 in November and first expansion since April.

French December flash manufacturing PMI 44.6

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:59 PM PST

From final 44.5 in November (big deal), but weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of 45.0

Services PMI up to 46.0 from final 45.8 in November, pretty much in line with Reuters’ median forecast of 45.9.

More Moscovici: Euro crisis in the process of being resolved

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:39 PM PST

You can never have too much Moscovici is what I say…….

Euro zone in the process of being saved

Jelly and icecream for everyone!!

EUR/USD sits at 1.3102, unimpressed and shrugging its’ shoulders…….

Infact I do believe it’s humming a little tune to itself

European plan for Greece is solid
Europe agreed real, integrated bank supervision
ECB can instruct national bank supervisors

Yada, yada, yada……

I’ve changed my mind, maybe you can have too much Moscovici……..

French FinMin: Maintenance of triple-A rating by Fitch an encouragement and motivating force

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:32 PM PST

Bless his little cotton socks…….

French economic strategy is ‘clear, decided’
‘Fundamental’ to reduce French debt
France benefits from low borrowing costs
Credibility needed to keep interest rates low

Fitch on France

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:13 PM PST

Here ya go…..

Fitch affirms France at ‘AAA’; outlook negative

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:06 PM PST

Allez les bleus!!

I thought I might hear………

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 11:02 PM PST

Talk of buy stops gathering above the 110.00 barrier interest in EUR/JPY.

Instead I’m hearing sell orders clustered 110.00/20.

It’s a funny old world………

Reuters poll: 14 out of 19 economists expect BOJ to ease monetary policy at Dec 19-20 meeting

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 10:22 PM PST

What do the good readers of Forexlive think?

USD/JPY at 83.86, EUR/JPY at 109.90. Barrier option interest at 84.00 and 110.00 respectively the next hurdles for the rampant yen bears.

European stocks set to open flat to very marginally firmer

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 10:07 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE opening flat to up +0.1%, DAX up as much as +0.3% and CAC 40 flat to up +0.1%.

EUR/USD sits at 1.3087, pretty much where it was 24 hours ago.

Sell orders 1.3100 and more clustered 1.3120/30. Talk of buy stops through 1.3125 and 1.3130. Take your pick, what’s 5 pips between friends. Personally I’d go with the latter.

Buy orders remain clustered down around 1.3040.

Ideas Corner/December 14th

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 09:37 PM PST

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em.

European Flash PMIs coming up later

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 09:25 PM PST

Whole lotta Flash PMIs coming up in Europe later – both Manufacturing and Services.

0800GMT France Manuf Flash PMI:

Prior was 44.5
Mkt expects 44.9

0800GMT France Services Flash PMI:

Prior was 45.8
Mkt expects 46.0

0830GMT Germany Manuf Flash PMI:

Prior was 46.8
Mkt expects 47.3

0830GMT Germany Services Flash PMI:

Prior was 49.7
Mkt expects 50.0

0900GMT Eurozone Flash Manuf. PMI

Prior was 46.2
Mkt expects 46.6

And much later today we get the US Flash Manuf PMI.

ForexLive Asia Wrap Fri. 14Dec2012: Yen … tankin’ on the Tankan

Posted: 13 Dec 2012 08:59 PM PST

Data/news/comments:

Obama and Boehner met for a ‘frank‘ one-hour Cliff discussion – nothing substantive (more cuts, more revenue) was reported – communication lines remain open
Polls showed LDP + New Komeito to win a majority in the Japanese election this weekend, with perhaps 300+ seats between them (more polls)
Japan Data: Q4 Tankan Survey – Diffusion Index fell to -12 (expected -10); Capex rose +6.8% (expected 5.4%) – articles from Bloomberg
OECD report on Australia released – generally positive – correct mix of fiscal and monetary policies etc. But could do better on consimption tax vs. corporate tax
The first day of EU leaders summit concluded – full text of conclusions here (PDF) (to be included in final text after day 2, tomorrow). This was accompanied by many upbeat comments from the attendees as they emerged. The FT was more sanguine … (paywall – headline is: EU summit delays crucial eurozone moves)
China Data: December HSBC China Flash Manufacturing PMI at 50.9 (vs. prior 50.5 & 50.8 expected)
Japan Data: Final Oct. Industrial Production +1.6% MoM (prelim. was +1.8%) [YoY was -4.5% vs, -4.3% prelim.]
Japan Data: Oct. Capacity Utilization +1.6% (vs. -5.5% in Sept.)

The Yen weakened again today after a poor Tankan Survey and ahead of the weekend’s election. Polls continue to show an LDP victory. USD/JPY topped out at 83.93, not taking on the barrier option-related selling in place just ahead of 84.00. EUR/JPY topped at 109.83.

EUR/USD showed some strength too, rising on news from the Obama/Boehner meeting (or, rather, no news from the meeting, neither saying anything nasty) and again at the conclusion of day 1 of the latest EU summit as positive noises were made by attendees. 1.3100 proved a bogey again, EUR/USD trickling lower from 1.3095 in early Tokyo lunch as the USD/JPY spiked above 83.90,

AUD had a little action today, trading down toward overnight lows and finding bids there yet again, before being chased a little higher on the back of a better Chinese Flash Manuf. PMI result.