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- AUD: RBA has reason to fear ‘currency wars’
- ForexLive North American wrap: Euro to highest since May
- Why USD/JPY was lower today
- See ya in a week
- Yen shorts and Aussie longs continue to grow in CFTC data
- Apple shares fall to lowest since February
- Might as well change the UK national anthem
- Bernanke says foreign bank rules would strengthen oversight
- Obama to make statement in 30 minutes on Ct. school shooting
- Fed plans to hike capital requirements on foreign banks
- What to watch for in this weekend’s Japanese elections
- Market may be done, but for all the wrong reasons
- EUR/USD week in review: The good, the bad and the ugly
- Italy affirmed at A- by Fitch; outlook negative
- September highs tested; shorts ordering body bags
- EUR/USD matches September high
- AUD and EUR continue higher
- EUR/USD finds supply ahead of 1.3150 barrier
- Flattish close for European stocks
- The kiwi is an unstoppable machine
| AUD: RBA has reason to fear ‘currency wars’ Posted: 14 Dec 2012 06:33 PM PST Article in the Aust Fin Review (article not behind paywall) re flows into the AUD, what a high $A is doing to the economy, growing calls for the RBA to intervene, why they may/may not:
RBA has reason to fear 'currency wars'
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| ForexLive North American wrap: Euro to highest since May Posted: 14 Dec 2012 02:02 PM PST
What can you say about the break of 1.3172 in EUR/USD? It broke but it was by one pip and that’s a fine line technically. I tend to fall on the side that says — wait and see what happens Monday. Shortly after the start of US trading, the dollar began a steep fall. The reasons for the decline aren’t particularly clear. There is some chatter about a ‘tactical retreat’ from Republicans on tax cuts, which could be construed as positive for risk assets but bad for USD — but it takes a few leaps of logic to get there. Have a great weekend. |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 01:44 PM PST It’s all about the Japanese election, which takes place on Sunday. There isn’t any question about the outcome of the election — the opposition LDP are well-ahead in the polls. The uncertainty surrounds how many seats they will win in the lower house. The key number is 320 which is the number of seats required for a two-thirds majority. Odds are low that they make it to 320 but there are a number of way they can piece together a coalition that gives them 320 — which is enough to dictate policy without the upper house. What adds uncertainty to the results is that nearly 40% of voters remain undecided and the LDP isn’t exactly beloved — they ran the country for most of the post-war period. Today represented some profit-taking on longs ahead of electoral uncertainty. With elections, there is no such thing as a sure thing. |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 01:18 PM PST I’m off to Jamaica for a week on the beach. I’ll be back for the final week of the year with my best trading ideas for 2013 and a review of my list for 2012. I’m dreaming of coming back with the fiscal cliff and the NHL lockout solved. |
| Yen shorts and Aussie longs continue to grow in CFTC data Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:37 PM PST The weekly data from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which gathers net speculative futures positions as of the close on Tuesday.
No major changes to report but it’s a fresh extreme in yen positioning since 2007 and the first time net AUD longs have ever cracked 100K. |
| Apple shares fall to lowest since February Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:32 PM PST AAPL has broken the November low. I only mention it because when it falls it can single-handedly torpedo the entire market… and because I’m a suddenly-smug Blackberry owner.
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| Might as well change the UK national anthem Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:12 PM PST CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld has penned these lyrics about BOC/BOE governor Mark Carney, which are evidently supposed to be sung along to this song. He’s taking some heat because it’s a bit bizarre but at Forexlive we appreciate humor and creativity, so thumbs up (for effort). Who can take recession, cast off all the blue Steer the yield curve lower get a miracle or two The Carney Man, oh the Carney Man can The Carney Man can 'cause he's been the world's best Gov and makes the street feel good
Who can push stability, with bankers far and nigh Make new capital targets look as easy as a pie The Carney Man, oh the Carney Man can The Carney Man can 'cause he's led the FSB with credibility
The Carney Man states economic fates With a voice that's so delicious As he talks about his CPI wishes You can see that he's ambitious
Who can a make a forecast, of rate hikes coming soon Back away tomorrow but retain the same old tune The Carney Man, oh the Carney Man can The Carney Man can so we keep from too much debt and make our credit scores good
Who can go to London, be the newborn King Guide the City bankers make the UK market sing The Carney Man, oh the Carney Man can The Carney Man can if there's anyone who can with all the mess to fix
Who will one day come back, bruised after his five Looking for a new roost, perhaps on Sussex Drive The Carney Man, oh the Carney Man can The Carney Man can 'cause he's Canadian through and through and makes our hearts go oooooh |
| Bernanke says foreign bank rules would strengthen oversight Posted: 14 Dec 2012 12:08 PM PST
Nothing to see here. |
| Obama to make statement in 30 minutes on Ct. school shooting Posted: 14 Dec 2012 11:48 AM PST Very doubtful he will take questions. |
| Fed plans to hike capital requirements on foreign banks Posted: 14 Dec 2012 11:42 AM PST
The Fed board will vote today on seeking comment for the proposal. Details have been leaking out for a few weeks so none of this is any surprise. |
| What to watch for in this weekend’s Japanese elections Posted: 14 Dec 2012 11:37 AM PST An LDP victory is all but assured but the size of the majority will be the focus. The bigger the majority (along with coalition partner New Komeito), the better the likelihood that the LDP will be able to push a weak JPY policy. Bids are seen on dips to 83.00 and 82.80; stops are perched below 82.75; Sellers are seen ahead of barrier options at 84.00. |
| Market may be done, but for all the wrong reasons Posted: 14 Dec 2012 10:20 AM PST A horrific shooting at a primary school in the far Connecticut suburb of Newtown has brought markets to a virtual standstill. Traders are watching reports from the scene rather than trading, which is perfectly understandable.
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| EUR/USD week in review: The good, the bad and the ugly Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:41 AM PST First, the good for the euro area. At long last, Greece has gotten it EUR 30-odd bln, buying them at least another six months before coming back for a drink from the European fountain. A framework for a single European banking regulator was agreed as well, but that won’t come into force until 2014. Now the bad. Progress toward closer budget integration has ground to a halt. That has been punted to the June EU summit. Same for the issue of dealing with the toxic assets on the balance sheets of Irish and Spanish banks. And now the ugly: Cyprus. Today we were told that Cyprus is in worse financial shape than Greece. I did not think that was even possible. Good thing for the euro group that Cyprus is ta small enough economy that the euro area can properly bail it out so the odds of contagion from Cyprus are pretty remote. Here we sit at the top of recent ranges on very little good news for the euro zone. Positions being covered is the catalyst. It remains to be seen if we carry on or if protection of 1.3200 barriers can hold the line. We do have a whiff of panic in the market at the moment, so I would be very reluctant to trade this market from the short-side. We could have further to run. |
| Italy affirmed at A- by Fitch; outlook negative Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:30 AM PST
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| September highs tested; shorts ordering body bags Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:18 AM PST We’ve run all the way up to 1.3171, testing the September highs as complacent shorts head to the exits all at once. 1.3175 and 1.3200 barriers are now in play. |
| EUR/USD matches September high Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:18 AM PST No messin’ around today.
Gotta go all the way back to May if that breaks. Update: 1.3173 |
| Posted: 14 Dec 2012 09:09 AM PST EUR/USD is at a fresh higher and broke the 1.3150 barrier. AUD/USD is now at a session high, emphasizing what I wrote earlier about buying commodity currencies on the dips. One currency that might not be on the radar is CHF, which putting in another strong day. |
| EUR/USD finds supply ahead of 1.3150 barrier Posted: 14 Dec 2012 08:36 AM PST The frantic post-fixing rally has finally found some offers but not before making a new high for this move at 1.31415. Protection of 1.3150 barriers should slow and perhaps cap the rally ahead of the weekend. If a day-trader type, these are not bad levels to book at least partial profits. Small bids are seen at 1.3115 and again at 1.3100. |
| Flattish close for European stocks Posted: 14 Dec 2012 08:35 AM PST
Solid week for the periphery and a fourth consecutive week of gains for Germany and France. |
| The kiwi is an unstoppable machine Posted: 14 Dec 2012 08:27 AM PST NZD/USD finally corrects today, slipping below 0.8400 and then it rebounds in a flash. The earlier high at 0.8453 has capped the move so far and yesterday’s high of 0.8460 further resistance beyond that. I’m embarrassed that I tried to pick the top in this pair a couple days ago. In a rally like NZD right now there are only two trades — long or on the sidelines. |
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