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• Eurozone unadjusted Oct trade surplus Eur 10.2bln from Eur -0.7bln a year earlier
• Moody’s: Japan fiscal policy expansion could help in the short-term but leave govt with higher debt
• A nice jolly version…..
• China to loosen monetary policy next year, Xinhua says
• Italian Oct EU trade surplus Eur 981 mln, from a Eur 456 mln deficit in Oct 2011
• Greek Fin Min Stournaras: Greece must work on growth
• I like this one……
• Today’s orderboard
• EUR/USD poll-time!!
• China ForMin says hopes Japan can appropriately deal with problems in Sino-Japan relations
• How the Swiss feelin now?
• Berlusconi engagement announcement fails to ‘out-gap’ the USD/JPY move at the weekend….
• For Spaniards, having a job no longer quarantees a paycheck
• Slim pickings on the data front this morning…
• European stocks seen opening very marginally firmer
• Today’s option expiries
• Europe has nothing to fear but fear itself and will move ahead with hope
• Greek govt to set up council of ‘wise men’ to combat tax evasion
• Ideas Corner- 17 Dec 2012
• Abe speaking in Tokyo – reiterates call for deflation fight & weaker yen

Eurozone unadjusted Oct trade surplus Eur 10.2bln from Eur -0.7bln a year earlier Posted: 17 Dec 2012 02:02 AM PST

Moody’s: Japan fiscal policy expansion could help in the short-term but leave govt with higher debt Posted: 17 Dec 2012 02:01 AM PST Japan would face negative credit implications if it cannot raise its potential growth rates

A nice jolly version….. Posted: 17 Dec 2012 01:54 AM PST

China to loosen monetary policy next year, Xinhua says Posted: 17 Dec 2012 01:16 AM PST China 2013 prudent monetary policy with some loosening Goody goody gumdrops…….

Italian Oct EU trade surplus Eur 981 mln, from a Eur 456 mln deficit in Oct 2011 Posted: 17 Dec 2012 01:05 AM PST Italy’s Oct world trade surplus  Eur 2.452 bln after a Oct 2011 deficit of Eur 1.114bln Exports to EU nations rose 7.9% y/y, Imports fell 0.2% y/y Turnaround largely due to  2 more working days in Oct this year from October 2011 according to ISTAT

Greek Fin Min Stournaras: Greece must work on growth Posted: 17 Dec 2012 12:45 AM PST Need direct investments, job creation (NSS) There’s been a significant change in climate Tax law needed for tranche payment Speaking to reporters after a meeting with PM Samaras

I like this one…… Posted: 17 Dec 2012 12:34 AM PST

Today’s orderboard Posted: 16 Dec 2012 11:53 PM PST EUR/USD:  Sells stops through 1.3140 ahead of bids 1.3115/25. Offers 1.3190 through to 1.3210. GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6160/70, 1.6120/30, and 1.6090/10 (sovereigns, real money, tenkan line 1.6099). Offers 1.6190/00 and tech res 1.6215/20 (Oct 1 high 1.6218), possible buy stops just above ahead of tech res 1.6270/75 (1.6273 (Sept 28 high) EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8150/60 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids 0.8125/35 and 0.8095/05, possible sell stops through 0.8090. USD/JPY: Bids 83.80/90 and 83.50/60. Offers from 84.10/20 and 84.40/50 (84.50 barrier?) likely buy stops above ahead of tech res offers 84.90/00 (probable barrier) ahead of major tech res 85.45/55 (Apr 6 2011 high 85.53) EUR/JPY:  Bids 110.00/10, and 109.40/50.  Offers 110.70/80 and 11.10/20 ahead of major tech res 111.40/45 (March 23 high 111.43) AUD/JPY:  Bids/tech supp 88.25/35 and 87.80/90, offers/tech res 88.60/70 and 88.90/00 AUD/USD: Bids 1.0520 down to 1.0500 (Tenkan line 1.0513), weak sell stops below ahead of bids 1.0460/70. Offers  from 1.0575 up to a barrier at 1.0600 buy stops through 1.0610 ahead of offers/tech 1.0620/25 (Sept 14 high 1.0625)

EUR/USD poll-time!! Posted: 16 Dec 2012 11:24 PM PST With the 1.3125 topside parameter of the last poll reached Friday, time for another. We sit at 1.3155. What’ll we see first, 1.3050 or 1.3250 and do the euro bulls need a 5 pip start? Reason/s for choice always welcome, but not obligatory……

China ForMin says hopes Japan can appropriately deal with problems in Sino-Japan relations Posted: 16 Dec 2012 11:22 PM PST Watch this space……….

How the Swiss feelin now? Posted: 16 Dec 2012 11:01 PM PST Where did all that EUR/USD selling get ya then, hey?  We sit at 1.3150 (yippee) Talk of some trailing sell stops through 1.3140 before buy orders clustered 1.3115/25. Sell orders clustered 1.3190/1.3210. If it wants to stay between 1.3115 and 1.3215 till 2013 that’ll do me I should be so lucky

Berlusconi engagement announcement fails to ‘out-gap’ the USD/JPY move at the weekend…. Posted: 16 Dec 2012 10:53 PM PST Proof the market is bigger than the likes of him…. ….(27-76) Anyway, he feels less lonely now…… USD/JPY’s starting to give  back it’s gains into Europe after  gapping to around 84.40 as Asia opened from Friday’s NY close around 83.52 on the back of Abe’s landslide win, which will give his government the opportunity to really push through reform bills. The pair’s sitting just above 84.00( former barrier) after a dip back to 83.85 from 9 month highs of 84.48 (EBS). Japanese exporters and some long term proprietary players were the noted sellers off the highs, but fresh USD demand is expected to re-surface once the  current bout of profit taking subsides. There’s talk of bids down at 83.80/90 and 83.50/60, with near term resistance up around 84.10/20 for now ahead of a presumed barrier at 84.50.

For Spaniards, having a job no longer quarantees a paycheck Posted: 16 Dec 2012 10:31 PM PST Scary stuff

Slim pickings on the data front this morning… Posted: 16 Dec 2012 10:27 PM PST All times GMT: 0900- Italian Oct trade balance 0900- WTO dispute Settlement body meets 1000- EU Q3 labour cost index, last 1.6% Y/Y 1000- EU Oct trade balance,  exp Eur +9 bln, from +9.8 bln 143030– ECB’s Draghi speaks

European stocks seen opening very marginally firmer Posted: 16 Dec 2012 10:22 PM PST Financial bookies see FTSE and CAC 40 opening up around +0.1%, DAX up around +0.4%.

Today’s option expiries Posted: 16 Dec 2012 10:00 PM PST For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:   EUR/USD: 1.3000, 1.3100, 1.3150 USD/JPY: 82.5083.00, 84.00, 84.25 AUD/USD: 1.0500 (L) EUR/GBP: 0.8120, 0.8130

Europe has nothing to fear but fear itself and will move ahead with hope Posted: 16 Dec 2012 09:47 PM PST The head of the World Economic Forum Klaus Schwab , doesn’t see a euro break  as the price of leaving it would be simply too great for any one country to bear…. Since Mario Draghi announced unlimited buying of government bonds back at the beginning of  September there’s been no turning back. “Europe's leaders must  see that the drawbridge has been lifted behind them.” They cannot back out of this and thus must steel themselves for the journey ahead. Moreover, they must also realize that for the European project to succeed – which it must – monetary union must be accompanied by four other kinds of union: a banking union; a fiscal union; a "competitiveness" union, or convergence; and, to all intents and purposes, a political union. And to be sustainable over the long term, the continent's political economy must be capable of reintegrating its youth and present an ideal worth fighting for. More ... UK Telegraph

Greek govt to set up council of ‘wise men’ to combat tax evasion Posted: 16 Dec 2012 09:31 PM PST They’re planning to create a council to deal with the current widespread tax evasion, and the former head of the National Bank Vassilis Rapanos is in the frame to lead the committee. The EU commissioner who oversees taxation issues apparently said Greece had the potential to boost revenues by Eur 10 bln a year  if it limited  tax evasion to average EU levels… More... ekathimerini

Ideas Corner- 17 Dec 2012 Posted: 16 Dec 2012 09:10 PM PST Morning all, from Europe Please post any bright ideas or comments you’d like to share with your fellow readers here…

Abe speaking in Tokyo – reiterates call for deflation fight & weaker yen Posted: 16 Dec 2012 09:07 PM PST PM-elect Shinzo Abe, speaking in Tokyo has called again to fight deflation and weaken the Yen He has vowed to protect Japanese territory and waters Has reiterated that the disputed islands are Japanese territory A special session of Diet may be called on December 26 via Bloomberg

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