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Cable extends rally
AUD/USD pegged down by EUR/AUD surge
Fitch: Increased likelihood U.S. would lose AAA status if failed to avoid fiscal cliff, went into recession
BOE minutes: MPC voted 8-1 to keep QE total at £375 bln, 9-0 to keep interest rates at 0.5%
Ifo economist: Calming of euro zone crisis allows companies to regain trust, export expectations have improved
Eurozone Oct sa C/A surplus Eur 3.9 bln from Eur 2.4 bln in Sept
Ifo German business climate index 102.4 in December
Japan’s PM elect Abe: Monetary policy alone can’t correct Yen strength
Barrier talk…
Swedish consumer confidence -12.2 in Dec
Dutch govt agency CPB: Expects economic recovery to begin in second half of 2013
Option expiries (Updated)
Today’s orderboard
Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions 2013: Extreme complacency
Mumbles barrier option interest close-by in cable
USD/JPY on firm footing ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ
EUR/USD extends rally marginally in Asia
NZD/USD continues to drift off ahead of tomorrow’s GDP
Today’s option expiries
Nikkei 225 closes up 2.39%

Cable extends rally

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:59 AM PST

Presently at 1.6295, within an ace of 1.6300 where there is rumoured barrier option interest.

Seems an Asian central bank is trying valiantly to protect said level

Will they suceed? Probably not, but everyone loves a trier.

Looming close above there is the 2012 high at 1.6310.

Who thinks there are going to be buy stops close above there? Hands up so I can count.

AUD/USD pegged down by EUR/AUD surge

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:58 AM PST

The cross has punched clearly through the 1.2550 level and is now looking to head towards the Oct 24/23 highs of 1.2648/73, which in turn has put the brakes on the AUD/USD bulls.

Real money have apparently been steady sellers of the AUD/USD over the last couple of sessions and recent comments from RBA Governor Stevens over growth have also added fuel to the bears cause, but talk of sovereign demand ahead of 1.0500 has so far halted further weakness (1.e 0.7500)

On the flipside demand in AUD/JPY has been countering the overall effect, as has Stevens other comments that there was no’ totemic significance’ to reduce the bank’s cash rate below its current record low of 3% and that the ‘AUD was unlikely to return to the low numbers that we have been accustomed to’ before 2007.

Order wise….Bids lie at 1.0500/10 with weak sell stops below ahead of bids 1.0460/70. Offers now seen at 1.0540/50 with more ahead of a barrier at 1.0600. Buy stops in place above through 1.0610 ahead of offers/tech 1.0620/25 (Sept 14 high 1.0625)

AUD’s presently static in the low 1.0520′s, with the cross just off recent highs of 1.2611, at 1.2608

Fitch: Increased likelihood U.S. would lose AAA status if failed to avoid fiscal cliff, went into recession

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:46 AM PST

No kiddin.

EUR/USD has extended rally as high as 1.3273 on back of better than expected German Ifo, presently at 1.3267.

Sell orders clustered 1.3280/00, stops above there.

BOE minutes: MPC voted 8-1 to keep QE total at £375 bln, 9-0 to keep interest rates at 0.5%

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:31 AM PST

Miles voted for extra £25 bln QE
Most MPC members agreed past month’s developments did little to alter QE arguements
Inflation likely to remain above 2% over next year; upside risks to food prices from bad weather
Recent UK economic news mixed, sees Q4 contraction, broadly flat near-term output
Risks from euro zone less pressing, but worse UK competitiveness may hamper UK exports

Ifo economist: Calming of euro zone crisis allows companies to regain trust, export expectations have improved

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:22 AM PST

Christmas business going well so far, especially in electronics and sports goods
German GDP expected to fall by -0.3% in Q4, to rise slightly in Q1 2013
Does not expect further ECB interest rate cuts, these would not help Germany

Eurozone Oct sa C/A surplus Eur 3.9 bln from Eur 2.4 bln in Sept

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:04 AM PST

Oct Non sa surplus Eur 7.2 bln from Eur 5.0 bln in Sept

Ifo German business climate index 102.4 in December

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 01:02 AM PST

Better than Reuters’ median forecast of 102.0.

Japan’s PM elect Abe: Monetary policy alone can’t correct Yen strength

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 12:56 AM PST

…Nor can monetary policy alone beat deflation

Bloomberg headlines

Barrier talk…

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 12:31 AM PST

Hearing the following,

EUR/USD: 1.3300

GBP/USD: 1.6300 (unconfirmed)

USD/JPY: 85.00 (exp 21 Dec), 85.50

AUD/USD: 1.0600

EUR/JPY: 112.00 (unconfirmed)

AUD/JPY: 90.00

Swedish consumer confidence -12.2 in Dec

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 12:30 AM PST

Weaker than Reuter’s median poll of -7.0.

Dutch govt agency CPB: Expects economic recovery to begin in second half of 2013

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 12:19 AM PST

Well let’s hope they’re right………..

CPB sees 2013 govt deficit of 3.3% of GDP (vs 2.7% seen in Sept)
Sees 2013 Dutch GDP of -0.5% (vs +0.75% seen in Sept)
Sees continued pressure on house prices, no short-term recovery in housing market

Is it me, or are their forecasting skills a little ropey? Just sayin…….

Option expiries (Updated)

Posted: 19 Dec 2012 12:17 AM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1.3100, 1.3200

USD/JPY: 83.00 (L), 83.60, 83.75, 84.00, 84.25

AUD/USD: 1.0450, 1.0600

EUR/GBP: 0.8150

EUR/SEK: 8.6365

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 11:56 PM PST

EUR/USD: Talk of buy stops now through 1.3260 ahead of large offers 1.3280/00 (barrier 1.3300). More buy stops above. Bids 1.3220/25 possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.3200/10 and 1.3170/80.

GBP/USD: Bids 1.6240/50 1.6190/10 and 1.6160/70, sell stops below. Offers/tech res 1.6270/75 (1.6273 Sept 28 high, barrier talk 1.6275) and large offers 1.6290/00 (possible barrier) Buy stops above through 1.6310 (Sept 21 highs)

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8150/60 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids 0.8115/25 and 0.8090/00, possible sell stops through 0.8090.

USD/JPY: Bids 84.00/10, 83.70/90, sell stops below ahead of more bids 85.50/60. Offers 84.40/50 from exporters , funds option related names (84.50 barrier) buy stops above ahead of tech res offers 84.90/00 (85.00 barrier)large buy stops just above ahead of major tech res 85.45/55 (Apr 6 2011 high 85.53)

EUR/JPY: Bids 111.30/40 and 110.90/00. Offers from 111.70 up to 112.00 (barrier?), ahead of strong tech res 112.15/20 ( 112.17, 61.8% retracement of the 123.33-94.12 fall)

AUD/JPY: Bids 88.50/60, tech supp 88.25/35 and 88.00/10, offers 88.90/00 and tech res 89.55/65 (89.63 Apr 28, 2011 high) ahead of 89.95/05 (90.04 Apr 11 2011 high)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0500/10, weak sell stops below ahead of bids 1.0460/70. Offers 1.0540/50, more ahead of a barrier at 1.0600. Buy stops through 1.0610 ahead of offers/tech 1.0620/25 (Sept 14 high 1.0625)

NZD/USD: Bids from 0.8380 down to 0.8350. Tech support 0.8335/40 (Dec 11 low) ahead of exporter bids 0.8300/20, sell stops below. Offers 0.8410/20 and 0.8430/40

Saxo Bank’s outrageous predictions 2013: Extreme complacency

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 11:47 PM PST

Personally think extreme complacency is under-rated.

Mumbles barrier option interest close-by in cable

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 11:18 PM PST

At 1.6275 to be exact, for what that’s worth.

Barriers just ain’t what they used to be

We’re presently at 1.6268.

USD/JPY on firm footing ahead of tomorrow’s BOJ

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 11:08 PM PST

Early fixing demand and buying from importers and a soaring Nikkei 225 drove the pair up to 84.44 in Asia before running into good supply from exporters, US funds, option and Swiss related names. Market remains bid on the back of expectations of further easing from the BOJ after 2 day meeting concludes tomorrow.

A break of 84.50 is likely to trigger some buy stops but the bigger offers lie in wait ahead of the 85.00 barrier. Large buy stops are seen on a break. Bids currently sit down at 84.00/10 with more at 83.70/90, and sell stops seen on a break of 83.70.

USD’s presently around 84.30

EUR/USD extends rally marginally in Asia

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 10:44 PM PST

EUR/USD up at 1.3243 from a North American close Tuesday down around 1.3225, having been as high as 1.3256 overnight in Asia.

U.S. fiscal cliff optimism and anticipation of aggressive Japanese monetary easing helping support risk, with global stocks on a nice roll.

European stocks look set to open marginally firmer this morning (major indices expected up +0.2/0.3%)

Talk of some buy stops now through 1.3260 before sell orders clustered 1.3280/00.

Downside little sketchier. Talk of buy orders clustered 1.3220/25. Not really sure where notable sell stops gathered, possible some light interest just under 1.3220.

Asian central bank buying evident overnight apparently. Who would have thunk it?

NZD/USD continues to drift off ahead of tomorrow’s GDP

Posted: 18 Dec 2012 10:35 PM PST

The pair’s under pressure again today on EUR/NZD and AUD/NZD buying, despite a rise in Fonterra dairy prices and a narrowing C/A deficit. Month end flows being cited by some analysts along with profit taking after recent highs of 0.8477.

NZD/USD triggered some stops in Asia down through 0.8385 (tenkan line 0.8386) to a low of 0.8378, but has so far lacked any further momentum .

There’s some bids now from the lows running down to 0.8350, with tech support down at 0.8335/40 ( lows of Dec 11) ahead of exporter bids 0.8300/20 with sell stops set on a break. Offers now start from 0.8410/20 and again just ahead of 0.8440.

Market is now eyeing tomorrow’s Q3 GDP which is expected at 0.4% q/q from 0.6% in Q2

NZD/USD currently trading around 0.8395