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Monday, December 3, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Japan’s LDP leader Abe : Reiterates need for unlimited BOJ monetary easing

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 01:52 AM PST

As well as setting a 2% BOJ inflation target

(Bloomberg)

Just so you know……

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 01:48 AM PST

Talk of cable demand lined up for 11:00 GMT fix related to HSBC dividend payment.

This demand has been well-flagged  last few sessions,  so could possibly have been front run.

But just so you know, incase we get a little rally around that time.

Cable presently at 1.6042.

UK November Mfg PMI rises sharply to 49.1

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 01:28 AM PST

Well above Reuters poll of 48.0 and a revised 47.3 in October, but still below the 50.0 level  since April this year 

New orders PMI jumps to 49.7 in November from 47.7 in October

GBP/USD’s just posting a day’s high of  1.6056 following the release

 

Spanish 10 year govt bond yield off 10 bps at 5.24%

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 01:27 AM PST

Will be lending single currency some underpinning.

Back up at 1.3037 after slight dip. Barrier option interest at 1.3050,  buy stops above.

Greek November Mfg PMI rises to 41.8 from 41.0 in October

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 01:04 AM PST

Small improvement,  but the 39th consecutive  month of contraction

Eurozone November Final Mfg PMI 46.2

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:59 AM PST

…unchanged from flash reading of 46.2 and  above  last months  45.4. Highest since March 2012

Nov final  Mfg PMI output rises to 46.1  (from flash of  44.8 and 45.0 in October). New export orders  rise to 46.4 (from a flash 45.9 and 45.3 in October), also highest since March 2012

German November final manufacturing PMI 46.8, in line with flash read

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:54 AM PST

Up from 46.0 in October.

French November Mfg PMI rises to 44.5

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:49 AM PST

A 3 month high, from a final October reading of 43.7 and flash of 44.7

Still the 9th consecutive month of contraction but the fall has slowed

Italian November Mfg PMI falls to 45.1

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:45 AM PST

From 45.5 in October. 16th consecutive month of contraction

Median forecast was 46.0

Mfg PMI New orders index fell to 42.2, from 44.4 in October

Swiss purchasing managers index 48.5 in November

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:32 AM PST

Better than Reuters’ median forecast of 47.0 and up from 46.1 in October.

Swiss retail sales fall to 2.7% in October

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:18 AM PST

….after a September adjusted reading of 5.0% (from 5.4%) and a median forecast of 3.8%

Spanish November Mfg PMI rises to 45.3

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:13 AM PST

From 43.5 in October and highest since July.

Nov Mfg output rises to 46.3 from 42.5 , highest since June 2011

At last some better news  for Spain :) , but its still the 19th consecutive month of contraction !

 

Greece announces offer to buy back govt bonds

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:06 AM PST

  • Announces invitation to dutch auction for each series of bonds
  • Sets maximum price on bonds at 32.2 to 40.1 pct of principal amount
  • Sets minimum price at 30.2 to 38.1 pct  of principal amount
  • Greece says invitation on bond offer to expire on Dec 7, settlement date is Dec 17
  • Greece will not proceed with any part of the transaction unless all conditions under financing agreement with EFSF are met
  • Greece says will not spend more than 10 bln euros of EFSF notes to buy back bonds

EUR/USD poll!!!

Posted: 03 Dec 2012 12:02 AM PST

With 1.3000 having been reached, time for another poll.

We’re at 1.3030.

What’ll we see first, 1.2930 or 1.3130?

Reason/s for choice always welcome but not obligatory.

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 02 Dec 2012 11:24 PM PST

EUR/USD:  Bids 1.3000/20, 1.2970/80  sell stops and 1.2950/70, sell stops below ahead of more bids 1.2900/10. Offers 1.3040/50 ( barrier 1.0350)buy stops above  ahead of larger offers /tech res 1.3080/00 (Oct 22 high 1.3084)

GBP/USD:   Bids 1.58990/10 (kijun line 1.6002, daily cloud base 1.5992) sell stops below, more bids 1.5970/80 and 1.5950/60 with sell stops below.  Offers/tech res 1.6045/55 (55 day MA at 1.6051) ahead of tech res, 1.6069 (50%- 1.6309-1.5829 fall) also cloud top/ trend line res around 1.6070/1.6076, and offers above at 1.6100/20 (Oct 5 high 1.6117).

EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8125/35 ahead of larger offers 0.8145/60 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids 0.8105/15 and 0.8080/90 possible sell stops just below, tech supp/options at 0.8060/70 (200 day MA 0.8063, also daily cloud top), more bids 0.8040/50

USD/JPY: Bids from 82.25 (tankan line) down to 82.00 sell stops below through 81.85 but stronger bids 81.50/70. Offers 82.40/50 (exporters) buy stops through 82.80 ahead of large offers 82.90/00 (barrier 83.00) very large buy stops just above.

EUR/JPY:  Offers 107.40/50 and 107.60/70, buy stops above. Bids 107.00/10 , 106.45/55, sell stops below and through 106.00

AUD/JPY:  Bids 85.45/55 ( 85.47  tenkan line and day's low) likely sell stops through 85.40 ahead of  tech supp 85.10/20, sell stops below through 85.00. Offers 85.90/00 and 86.15/25, tech res 86.40/50 (Apr 2 high 86.50), likely buy stops above. Ahead of tech res 86.70/75 (86.74 Apr 2 high)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0390/10 (50 % fibo of  16-27 Nov rise) sell stops through 1.0385, (100 day MA 1.0389, cloud top 1.0387)  ahead of large bids 1.0350/60 with more sell stops below. Offers 1.0430/40 and 1.0470/80 (importers), ahead of barrier interest at 1.0500) large buy stops above ahead of offers/tech res 1.2510/20 (Sep 21 high 1.5019)

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2500/10 and 1.2450/60 ahead of tech supp 1.2410/20 (200 day MA at 1.2412). Offers 1.2540/50 ahead of tech res (cloud top) 1.2580

NZD/USD: Bids 0.8170/80 and 0.8130/40 (daily cloud base 0.8138). Offers 0.8210/20, stronger up at 0.8260/70 possible buy stops above ahead of tech res/offers 0.8290/0.8310 (Nov 7 high 0.8309)

Irish manufacturing PMI rises to 52.4 in November

Posted: 02 Dec 2012 10:59 PM PST

From 52.1 in October.

9th straight month of growth

 

Spain’s Rajoy says it may be difficult to meet deficit target

Posted: 02 Dec 2012 10:39 PM PST

AUD/USD pressured by EUR/AUD buying

Posted: 02 Dec 2012 10:35 PM PST

…Along with flat retail sales, corporate profits, 8th consecutive fall in the ANZ jobs data and rising talk of a  rate cut at tomorrow’s RBA meeting with futures markets pricing in  a 90% possibility.

Bids in the 1.0390/10 bracket are currently sapping up  some strong supply, but there is also some technical support in the area with the daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.0387, 100 day MA at 1.0389 and the  50% retracement of the rise from 16 -27 Nov. at 1.0390.

There are likely  sell stops lurking just below ahead of a tranche of strong bids  down at 1.0350/60,  with more sell stops just below.

AUD’s trading around 1.0400

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 02 Dec 2012 10:09 PM PST

For the 1 Dec 2012 @ 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2950, 1.2960, 1.2985, 1.3100, 1.3145, 1.3150

USD/JPY: 81.50, 82.00, 82.10, 82.25, 82.60

EUR/GBP: 0.8030

AUD/USD: 1.0435, 1.0450, 1.0475

 

I’ll update a bit later

EUR/USD opens the month on a firm note

Posted: 02 Dec 2012 10:07 PM PST

EUR/JPY and EUR/AUD buying has given the euro a boost in Asia overnight despite the Moody’s downgrade of the ESM and EFSF, as China’s Mfg PMI rises again and helps underpin the single currency.

The pair tripped some earlier stops up through 1.3030 to highs of  1.3048 and has pulled clear of the Ichimoku cloud top (1.2992) with next real pocket of technical resistance up at 1.3075/85 ( 23/22 Oct highs). There may well be a barrier lurking up in front at 1.3050 but i can’t confirm this at the moment.

EUR/JPY has offers  in the 107.50/70 zone with buy stops on a break of 107.70 ahead of a 108.00 barrier. EUR/AUD’s now breaking higher again through the 1.2500 level with initial resistance at 1.2540/50 ahead of the cloud top currently at 1.2580.


at 6:05 PM

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