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Friday, December 7, 2012

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

Greek final Q3 GDP -6.9% y/y

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 02:01 AM PST

Flash estimate was -7.2%, (Q2 GDP  was -6.3%)

USD/JPY back around pre-quake levels

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:55 AM PST

Some obviously pretty decent bids sitting around the 82.20 area (low 82.175 on EBS), but  the pair clawed it way back to the 82.40′s after little reports of damage and panic subsides.  Talk now of offers  82.55/65 (includes  Asian highs of 82.57) and talk of buy stops through 82.80. Strong bids also sitting down at 82.00/10 with sell stops below through 81.85.

It’s likely  to remain range bound ahead of the US NFP’s this afternoon barring any more unforeseen news

USD’s presently sitting around 82.38

UK Oct MFG output -1.3% m/m (exp -0.2%m/m), -2.1% y/y

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:33 AM PST

Biggest falls since June

Oct Industrial output falls sharply as well to -0.8% m/m (exp +0.7%), -3.0%y/y

Q3 Construction orders  +5.4% q/q, -6.7% y/y

  • BOE: Nov  Inflation expectations for next year +3.5% from 3.2% in August, 3.2% from 2.8% for next 2 years and  3.6% from 3.1 % over next 5 years
  • Net public satisfaction with BOE rises to +13 from +6 in Aug

Cable back around 1.6040 after a dip to  1.6023 on the weaker data

Greece will complete Sovereign debt buy back today

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:29 AM PST

An unnamed official has said there will be no extension beyond 1700 GMT, and  Greek banks will hold board meetings today to decide whether they will join and declare their interest.

Reuters reporting

ECB’s Nowotny: ECB has an ambivalent picture of the Eurozone

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:10 AM PST

  • Bond yields have relaxed ( Spanish and Italian?)
  • Stock markets are developing well
  • Sees inflation easing
  • Sees problematic development of real economy
  • Eurozone isn’t in in a situation like after  Lehman
  • Sees 2013 inflation clearly under 2%, risks point more to the downside than upside
  • 2013 will be a big challenge for economic development ( ur telling me)
  • Sees eurozone reach economic low in Q4 (lets hope so)

Bloomberg headlines

Italian and Spanish 10 yr yields on the up again

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:02 AM PST

Italian up 8 bps to 4.64%, Spanish up 8 bps to 5.55%, 3rd day of  rising yields

EUR/USD struggling around the 1.2930 level

More on the quake in Japan

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:38 AM PST

  • Quake magnitude was 7.3  as reported by USGS ( not 7.4 as first reported)
  • No risk of a widespread Tsunami, or with CB’s financial settlement systems( Reuters)
  • No cooling system problems at Fukushima, Daiichi  reactors (Reuters)
  • Quake struck at 5.18PM local time, Intensity 4 on local scale of 7 (Bloomberg). Centered offshore 2450km SE of Kamaishi (USGS)
  • Tsunami expected to hit Miyagi Prefecture at 0840 GMT (Reuters/NHK)
  • No Tsunami threat to Hawaii (PTWC/Bloomberg)

Earthquake rocks Tokyo

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:23 AM PST

Reuters and Bloomberg reporting a large quake in Tokyo with shaking buildings and  possible Tsunami danger

UPDATE: Tsunami warning issued for eastern Japan’s Miyagi prefecture.…  let’s hope not !

UPDATE 2:  7.4 magnitude

Any Updates from our Japanese readers much appreciated, thoughts are  with you all from us all

USD/JPY’s falls  20 pips on the news to  session lows around  82.18 before sitting at 82.27

EUR/USD poll time i guess…. !

Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:08 AM PST

Well we saw a low there of  1.2929 in EUR/USD so guess Gerry and myself both got one wrong.. (By 1 miserable pip having been only 3 away from the jaws of victory…. :(  )

Cet la vie…..

Ok …..lets go 1.2830-1.3030….. and before anyone asks  i’m going for 1.3030 :) .. (glutton for punishment but think this move is a bit overdone)

Reasons would be welcome of course

French Oct budget deficit narrows to Eur -94.6 bln from Eur -99.4 bln in 2011

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:55 PM PST

October trade deficit Eur -4.7 bln, down from   Eur-4.997 bln in September(revised from Eur-5.033 bln)

(Oct sa exports  rose +0.7%m/m with sa imports falling -0.2% m/m)

EUR/USD floundering again…

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:48 PM PST

Obviously on the back of the BUBA growth forecasts i just mentioned. There’s talk of Asian sovereigns attempting to slow the fall but apparently system funds  were behind the shunt lower to a fresh day’s low of 1.2929.

Sell stops are now reported on a break down of 1.2900 ( surprise, surprise)

EUR’s presently at 1.2935

BUBA lowers 2012 GDP to 0.7% from 1.0% previously and sees 0.4% in 2013 down from 1.6%

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:37 PM PST

Uugh !

  • 2014 GDP growth seen at 1.9%
  • 2012 Inflation seen at 2.1% (unchanged ) and 1.5% in 2013 (from 1.6%). 2014 seen at 1.6%
  • 2012 unemployment seen at 6.8 %(up from 6.7%) and 7.2% in 2013 (up from 6.5%), sees 7% in 2014
  • Sees growth lower on uncertainties  and Eurozone crisis, but doesn’t see a protracated slowdown, with a return to growth path soon
  • Balance of risk to projections on the downside for now

EUR/USD’s not liking this at all with a slide to  1.2936 on the headlines, Bund futures  reverse earlier losses up 6 at 145.75

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:28 PM PST

EUR/USD:  Bids, 1.2945/50, (1.2949 (38.2% retracement of 1.2661-1.3127 rally) possible sell stops below ahead of bids 1.2900/15 (1.2906 76.4% of 1.2042-1.3173 rally, 1.2915 the 55 day MA). Offers 1.2980/00 (10 day MA at 1.2996) likely buy stops above ahead of  offers 1.3015/25 and 1.3035/45 likely buy stops through both from short term shorts.

GBP/USD:  Bids 1.6030/40(daily cloud base1.6032), tech support 1.6015 (38.2% of 1.5828-1.6131 rally Nov-Dec rally) ahead of more bids 1.5890/10. sell stops through 1.5985. Offers 1.6080/00 and 1.6115/25 (1.6124- 61.8% of Sep/Nov fall) and likely buy stops above.

EUR/GBP: Offers o.8090/00 and 0.8140/50 with likely large buy stops above 0.8165 (Oct 22 high). Bids tech supp/options 0.8055/65 (200 day MA 0.8058, daily cloud top 0.8066), more bids 0.8040/50 and 0.8015/25 (0.8020 cloud base)

USD/JPY: Bids 82.20/30 and 82.00/10 sell stops below and through 81.85 but stronger bids 81.60/70, with sell stops below through 81.50. Offers 82.60/70 (exporters) buy stops through 82.80 ahead of large offers 82.90/00 (barrier 83.00) very large buy stops just above.

EUR/JPY:  Offers 106.90/10 possible buy stops above through 107.20 ahead of large offers 107.80/00 ahead of barrier (108). Bids 106.60/70, 106.20/30 and 106.00/20, sell stops below.

AUD/JPY:  Bids 86.20/30 and 85/95 (85.88 tenkan line) possible sell stops just below ahead of bids 85.40/50, sell stops through 85.40.  Offers /tech res 86.50/60 (Thurs high 86.58), buy stops above ahead of tech res 86.70/75 (86.74 Apr 2 high)

AUD/USD: Bids 1.0440/60  possible small sell stops below ahead of more bids, 1.0390/10 (kijun line 1.0401, 100 day MA 1.0394) also, cloud top 1.0387)  ahead of large bids 1.0350/60 with more sell stops below. Offers 1.0480/00 (importers), ahead of offers 1.0515/25 (barrier at 1.0525). CTA buy stops above there ahead of larger tech res 1.0560/70 (13 Sept high 1.0569)

EUR/AUD: Bids 1.2325/35 ( Nov 28 lows 1.2329) and 1.2300/10, likely sell stops below. Offers 1.2375/85 ahead of tech res 1.2405/15 (1.2413 200 day MA)

European bourses looking to open marginally higher

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:07 PM PST

STOXX futures are up around 0.4%,  CAC futures up 0.4% and DAX up around 0.1%

China’s Shanghai composite Index closes up 1.6%…

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 11:03 PM PST

…at 2.061.79. That’s a 4.1% rise on the week

Gerry’s taking a rest today….

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 10:29 PM PST

A well deserved one i think, ….the poor chaps a bit knackered, so he’s having a long weekend, hopefully he’s getting a haircut as he was describing himself as a bit of a hippy the other day…

AUD/USD’s showing some resilience

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 10:23 PM PST

It has been supported earlier by buoyant Chinese stocks, and there’s still  some attraction towards option  expiries at 1.0500 and 1.0520.

1.0525  apparently holds a barrier and there’s talk of CTA buy stops on a break of the level. With EUR/AUD taking a pounding yesterday the AUD/USD should be fairly well contained on the downside with reasonable bids down at 1.0440/60 and larger down at 1.0390/10 (kijun line 1.0401, 100 day MA at 1.0394). AUD sits around 1.0477.

EUR/AUD broke down through the base of the Ichimoku daily cloud yesterday to  1.2341  and currently sits  around 1.2363 (1.2359 daily cloud base). Last night close around  1.2370  was well below the 200 day MA at 1.2413 which should now pose as some strong resistance and keep the focus lower. Some bids/supp expected down at 1.2325/35 (Nov 28 lows 1.2329) and then 1.2300/10.

(I’m still bullish for AUD by the way before anyone asks…. ;)   will i ever learn.. probably not)

Nikkei 225 closes down 0.19%

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 10:09 PM PST

or 17.77 points at 9.527

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 10:04 PM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

Haven’t heard of any particularly massive ones out there but will keep you updated…

EUR/USD: 1.2900, 1.2975, 1.3000, 1.3010, 1.3080, 1.3100

USD/JPY: 81.50, 82.00, 82.25, 82.30, 82.50, 82.65, 83.00

EUR/JPY: 107.00

GBP/USD: 1.6100

AUD/USD: 1.0400, 1.0420, 1.0450, 1.0500, 1.0520

USD/CAD: 0.9920

EUR/USD mulling a next move

Posted: 06 Dec 2012 09:55 PM PST

So am I…Well after  the dive bomb courtesy of  mad Super Mario yesterday, i guess everyone’s saying ‘ where to now’…

It’s not a coincidence the fall stopped at the  1.2945/50 which equates to the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the recent 1.2661-1.3127 rally , but if we breach that level the next major tech support comes in around  1.2900/15 ( 1.2906 would be the 76.4% of the bigger 1.2042-1.3173 rally starting back in July 24) which includes the 55 day MA at 1.2915. ( I’d Suggest there will be some sell stops through 1.2940)

Offers now look in place up at 1.2980/00 (which houses the 10 day MA at 1.2996), possible buy stops just above ahead offers in the 1.3015/25 zone, (where sell stops went through yesterday afternoon and likewise at 1.3035/45). Short term traders may well buy back shorts at these levels if broken.

EUR/USD’s currently sitting around the daily ichimoku cloud top at 1.2960


at 6:06 PM

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