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• Best trade this week: Long NZD/CHF
• Nexen and Progress takeovers approved
• Bloomberg confirming Nexen decision
• Nexen deal approved
• USD/CAD slides in minutes before Nexen decision
• ForexLive North American wrap: Jobs galore
• Yen shorts continue to pile on
• Nexen shares plunge 15%
• Nexen decision may be embargoed until 5 p.m.
• If you stuck around, it was worth waiting for: Nexen decision coming up
• Can’t argue with Biden on this one
• US Oct consumer credit +$14.2B vs +$12.2B prior
• CBO US Nov budget deficit -$172B vs -$137B last year
• Almost time for the weekend
• Italian discussions ongoing
• Turns out money can’t buy you love: Germans rated worst lovers
• Rocking out the afternoon
• A worthwhile read
• Buyers remorse?
• S&P warns it could cut Italy if recession persists

Best trade this week: Long NZD/CHF Posted: 07 Dec 2012 03:30 PM PST I’d call it zombie NZD/CHF … the old carry-trade cross rose from the dead to be the biggest more this week, by a longshot. NZD/CHF rose 2.2% on the week, or 1.7%. In spite of the move, the pair remains well-within the range since August. I suspect it will continue to the upside but the trade is to go with a breakout of the range.

Nexen and Progress takeovers approved Posted: 07 Dec 2012 02:00 PM PST Official confirmation.  Future state-owned investments in oilsands will be approved on “an exceptional basis” only Further oilsands state control won’t benefit Canada New foreign investment guidelines will place stricter conditions on state-owned investments That’s pretty much to worst thing the government could have said while still approving the deal. They slammed the doors on further sovereign takeovers and Harper said it’s ‘the end of a trend’ not the start. It is still a significant Canadian dollar positive but the gold rush to buy Canadian assets will need to be led by private money or state-owned enterprises taking minority shares.

Bloomberg confirming Nexen decision Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:55 PM PST Canada said to approve $15.1B takeover. Globe & Mail also reporting it’s a done deal. Official statement at the top of the hour will be the final confirmation. This is the medium-term CAD catalyst. Expect USD/CAD to sink for a period on this.

Nexen deal approved Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:43 PM PST Reuters reporting that the Nexen deal has cleared, citing a source. USD/CAD down to 0.9890.

USD/CAD slides in minutes before Nexen decision Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:37 PM PST Nexen decision at the top of the hour. Could be a last-minute tell on the Nexen decision but it seems this secret is locked up tighter than the Carney-to-BOE announcement.

ForexLive North American wrap: Jobs galore Posted: 07 Dec 2012 01:27 PM PST Non-farm payrolls +146K vs +85K exp Dec U Michigan consumer sentiment 74.5 vs 82.4 exp Nov Canadian employment +56.3K vs +10K exp 18 ECB members wanted rate cut yesterday – MNI ECB didn’t cut because of worries about optics – BBG NIESR estimates UK GDP rose 0.1% in three months through Nov HSBC cut to AA- from AA by Fitch; Outlook stable S&P warns it could cut Italy if recession persists ECB may cut in the next few weeks: Pimco's El-Erian S&P 500 +0.2% to 1418 CAD leads, EUR lags

Yen shorts continue to pile on Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:45 PM PST JPY net short 90K vs 79K prior EUR net short 33K vs 67K prior GBP net long 27K vs 10K prior AUD net long 92K vs 77K prior CAD net long 57K vs 62K prior NZD net long 21K vs 19K prior All positions from the CFTC Commitments of Traders report, which is collected at the close on Tuesday.

Nexen shares plunge 15% Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:30 PM PST Wild move to the downside in Nexen shares on speculation that a late Friday announcement means bad news. Update: shares have bounced 10% from the lows.

Nexen decision may be embargoed until 5 p.m. Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:24 PM PST Political reporters in Ottawa are saying there is a lockup until 2200 GMT — after the market close. There is, however, a press conference from 4-5 p.m. — not sure what they would be talking about. Ok, it doesn’t say it’s the Nexen decision, but it’s the Nexen decision. Update: a kind reporter from the Toronto Star has informed me that the media briefing from 4-5 p.m is behind closed doors, which explains my confusion. (h/t @smithjoanna)

If you stuck around, it was worth waiting for: Nexen decision coming up Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:07 PM PST Industry Canada ‘ important government of Canada announcement’ from 4-5 pm ET. Prime Minister Harper speaking at 5:15 p.m. Stocks will be closed but forex is trading and USD/CAD will be moving. This comes at an ideal time because lots of the market won’t react until markets re-open on Monday. Shares of Nexen are up 5% in the past two days… I don’t want to say that the insiders already know, but the insiders already know.

Can’t argue with Biden on this one Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:03 PM PST If both sides can “act like adults” and reach a deal on the fiscal cliff, the upside for the economy will be high US has turned a corner, trajectory is in the right direction Politicians acting like adults is like a utopian dream.

US Oct consumer credit +$14.2B vs +$12.2B prior Posted: 07 Dec 2012 12:01 PM PST Non-revolving credit is most of the increase

CBO US Nov budget deficit -$172B vs -$137B last year Posted: 07 Dec 2012 11:57 AM PST Fiscal year-to-date at $292B vs $236B a year ago. Not moving in the right direction in November but that’s usually due to timing/calendar differences. The deficit is gigantic any way you measure it.

Almost time for the weekend Posted: 07 Dec 2012 11:51 AM PST This song is a lot of fun but (warning) it has some foul language.

Italian discussions ongoing Posted: 07 Dec 2012 11:07 AM PST President Napolitano will discuss the political crisis with Monti as soon as possible after talks with party leaders. The Italian political situation has been an anchor in the latter half of the week.

Turns out money can’t buy you love: Germans rated worst lovers Posted: 07 Dec 2012 11:01 AM PST Germany has all the money in the eurozone but they rank as the world worst lovers. A poll of 15,000 women found that Germans are considered “too smelly”. English lovers came second because they are so lazy, while men from Sweden were branded “too quick to finish” and came third. Spanish men topped the table as the best lovers, followed by Brazilians and Italians. Canada ranked a respectable 10th but we’d be higher if not for all squares out west.

Rocking out the afternoon Posted: 07 Dec 2012 10:56 AM PST Slow grind this afternoon on some small retracements. The CFTC positioning data will be out a bit later and that’s the only highlight on my calendar, other than going to see these guys on Monday.

A worthwhile read Posted: 07 Dec 2012 10:29 AM PST There is a lot of great reading in our MNI feed but if you only pick out one thing a day, make sure it’s Talk From the Trenches. It’s Isobel Kennedy’s daily wrap on the market chatter and she’s one of the best reporters around. It focuses on bonds but applies to everything. It comes out around this time (but usually a bit later) every day.

Buyers remorse? Posted: 07 Dec 2012 10:07 AM PST Obama’s job approval rating, as measured by Gallup has slipped back below 50%. His viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 44%. This is way down from 54-40 last weekend. The longer the fiscal cliff talks drag on, the worse the President looks. “Soak the rich” can only take you so far…

S&P warns it could cut Italy if recession persists Posted: 07 Dec 2012 09:44 AM PST Could lower rating if recession continues into H2 2013 Sees a significant risk Italy’s GDP will not recover in H2 2013 Reuters reporting.

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