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Thursday, January 10, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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EUR/USD back through 1.3100

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 02:03 AM PST

Hearing that  Middle East names were buyers earlier around the auction results and some stops have been tripped on the break of the  1.3100 handle to highs of 1.31065(EBS).

Same names were apparently sighted in cable as well which has just posted a day’s high of 1.6051 ( which incidentally is also the daily cloud top)

US WTI Crude spikes through $94.00

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 02:00 AM PST

The Nymex February contract  just took off with a high of  94.26 as the  oil market  finds a new pulse following the  strong Chinese data overnight and  EUR/USD rallies up towards 1.3100.

WTI currently trades around 94.15

Spanish auction result

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 01:49 AM PST

Sold a total of Eur 5.8i7 bln  out of a targeted Eur 4-5 bln in first auction of 2013

Details :

Eur 3.397 bln of  2.75% March 2015 bono, yield 2.476% (from 3.282%), cover 2.1

Eur 1.950 bln of  4.5% January 2018 bono, yield 3.988%  (from 4.68%), cover 2.6 (from 2.1)

Eur 470 mln of  5.9% July 2026 obligacione, yield 5.555% , cover 2.9

 

Very strong take up  above target and improved yields; EUR/USD spiking higher to fresh day’s highs of  1.3093 on the results

 

Spanish 2yr yields fall 12 bps at 2.27% ahead of auction

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 01:32 AM PST

Results due shortly.

Elsewhere:  Italian 2yr yield falls 9 bps to 1.46%, 10yr yield falls 5 bps to 4.22%

Spain goes to the market this morning

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 01:09 AM PST

They are looking to  sell Eur 4-5 bln of  2015, 2018 bono and 2026 obligacione

Results expected around 0940GMT

Senior Merkel ally: Cyprus can’t get help if it doesn’t apply EU rules on transparency and money laundering

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 12:39 AM PST

Money laundering  in Cyprus.. surely not!     ;)

Germany parliamentary support for Cyprus aid is just as problematic for  the CDU/CSU  as it is for FDP allies

Reuters reporting

Talk of Asian sovereign buying in EUR/USD

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 12:26 AM PST

That’s the word in the street anyway, and also now of some buy stops  in place though 1.3080 and again through 1.3110.

EUR’s presently just of the recent day’s highs of  1.3075, around  1.3064

AUD/USD marches higher…

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 12:20 AM PST

Strong AUD/JPY demand continues to lift this pair  with the cross recently hitting fresh 4yr 4mth highs at 93.29.

AUD/USD ‘s now targeting the Dec 12 high of 1.0585 with offers just above into 1.0600 (possible barrier).  A break there  opens up to 14 Sept high of 1.0625  and 1.0670 (March 8 high). Bids now lie down at 1.0500/10 and run down to 1.0480. Some sell stops are reported just under there.

EUR/AUD has also helped the cause, slipping back under the 200 day MA at  1.2407  to 1.2357 after highs in Asia of  1.2437

European bourses head higher

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 12:06 AM PST

DAX up 0.2%, IBEX  up 0.2%, FTSE up 0.1%, CAC40 up 0.1% and Italy’s FTSE MIB up 0.4%.

Kind of expected following the  strong closes from the Hang Seng, Shanghai Comp and Nikkei

French Nov Industrial output rose +0.5% m/m, -3.6% y/y

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 11:49 PM PST

Above expectations of  +0.3% m/m and  sharply up from -0.6% revised reading for October

French Dec EU harmonized CPI rises +0.4% m/m, +1.5 % y/y

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 11:47 PM PST

Dec CPI rose +0.3%m/m, +1.3% y/y

Banque de France Dec business confidence rises to 95

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 11:33 PM PST

From 91 in November.

Points to a 0.1% drop  in GDP in Q4  (in line with expectations)

USD/JPY faces a grind ahead of 88.50

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 11:28 PM PST

Currently sitting just below the Asian highs of 88.22, there are  reportedly strong offers ahead of 88.50 which i’d assume holds a barrier. Buy stops lurk just above, and  the trend looks likely to continue after some strong AUD/JPY buying  to fresh 4 year highs of 93.16.

There’s also talk in the market of a  large 86.75-90.75 DNT option ( I don’t know the expiry date)  so expect some heavy support resistance ahead of both levels. Nearby bids  start from 88.00 down to 87.80 with sell stops just below and again through 87.40

AUD/JPY sell stops are in place for a break of 92.00 (some way off i know) with bids in front in the 92.10/20 zone.

USD/JPY’s sitting at 88.18 with the AUD/JPY  at the mentioned highs

 

EUR/USD steady into Europe..

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 10:52 PM PST

Little to report  after a  miniscule range in Asia,  as the market awaits the ECB rate decision (expected unchanged) at 1245 GMT.

There are bids  from 1.3020 layered down to 1.2990 (55 day MA 1.2994) with reported sell stops through 1.2980. Topside offers start from  1.3055/70 (100 hr MA 1.3070) with larger up at 1.3090/00 (kijun line 1.3092). Possible buy stops just above ahead of  more offers up at  1.3130/40.

Focus will be on  Draghi’s comments  at 1330 GMT following the rate decision for possible signs that the easing cycle is over.

EUR/USD’s currently trading around 1.3057

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 10:21 PM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD: 1.2975, 1.3050, 1.3100, 1.3250

GBP/USD: 1. 6000, 1.6045

USD/JPY: 86.50, 87.00. 87.50

USD/CHF: 0.9225:

AUD/USD: 1.0470, 1.0490, 1.0600

AUD/NZD: 1.2545

 

 

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closes up 0.7%

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 10:10 PM PST

At 10,652.64, exporter shares behind the rise  as  investor sentiment picks up after the stellar export data out of China

TOPIX was up 1.13% at 889.02

Merkel faces skepticism over Cyprus bailout aid

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 09:52 PM PST

Looks like Angela may have delay a final decision on Cyprus until after the elections or risk endangering her majority with the  German lawmakers who would have to approve a deal..

Rainer Bruederle, the parliamentary leader for Merkel's Free Democratic coalition partner, told Bild newspaper he sees no majority in the lower house as long as German taxpayers have the impression that they're bolstering tax evaders.

He echoed statements from opposition Social Democratic Chairman Sigmar Gabriel, who told Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper the SPD won't support a Cyprus bailout in its current form.

"There are too many question marks surrounding Cyprus," Bruederle told Bild in an interview on Wednesday.

"From what is known currently, I don't see a majority for financial aid."

More... ekathimerini

 

Central banks must switch off the printing presses before it’s too late…

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 09:28 PM PST

Bernanke’s  made it clear he’s not going to seek a 3rd term as the Fed head,  so how’s he done …

It is perhaps still too early to be passing judgments on his reign, but on one level it certainly doesn't seem so bad, given the challenges faced. Bernanke has arguably done better than central bankers in Europe, Britain and Japan in terms of his crisis response. US GDP is back above pre-crisis levels, unlike the UK, and is continuing to grow at a reasonable, if quite modest, rate.

Having avoided the fiscal cliff, Congress still has to confront the separate debt ceiling. This will involve the same sort of "end of days" media frenzy we saw around the cliff, but ultimately a deal will be done and the US economic juggernaut will move on.

The negative impact on confidence of these stand-offs seems to be much exaggerated. In fact, the US economy continued to create jobs at quite a pace right through the supposed uncertainty of the fiscal cliff negotiations.

More.… UK Telegraph

Ideas corner – 10th January 2013

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 09:20 PM PST

Good morning from a chilly Europe.

Please post any bright ideas or comments you’d like to share with your fellow readers here..

Japan bizarre headline: New Government plans to raise maximum income tax rate to 45% from 40%

Posted: 09 Jan 2013 09:19 PM PST

Its a headline – I have no further details.

I have to wonder if this is not some weird misprint. If the government wants to boost economic growth why would they be raising incometax rates?


at 6:06 PM

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