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Friday, January 11, 2013

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Option expiries (updated)

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 01:55 AM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

(Updates in bold)

 

EUR/USD: 1.3100, 1.3175, 1.3200, 1.3250, 1.3350

GBP/USD: 1.6175

USD/JPY: 88.00, 88.10, 88.25, 88.50, 88.65, 89.00

AUD/USD: 1.0475, 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0600

AUD/JPY: 92.00

NZD/USD: 0.8225

UK Nov Industrial production +0.3% m/m, -2.4% y/y

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 01:32 AM PST

From -0.8% m/m, -3.0% y/y, but well below expectations of +0.8% m/m,( strongest rise since July on a monthly basis)

Nov Manufacturing production  -0. 3 %m/m,  -2.1% y/y, after October readings of -1.3%m/m and -2.1% y/y. Expectations were for  a rise of +0.5% m/m

Basically below expectations  as cable slips  15 pips to  session lows of 1.6128

German Economy Ministry expects economy to revive significantly during 2013

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:56 AM PST

Germany’s economic performance declined in Q4 last year due to a difficult European environment

China’s NDRC says GDP grew 7.7% in 2012

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:41 AM PST

They ( National Development and Reform Commission)  are forecasting GDP for 2013 at 7.5%

(Xinhua News reporting)

Italy goes to the market today…

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:25 AM PST

They’re looking to sell Eur 2.75-3.5 bln of  2.75% Dec 2015 BTP,s along with Eur 1-1.5 bln of June 2017 and Oct 2017 CCTeu

Results expected some time after 1010 GMT

Cable meets a sticky patch..

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:18 AM PST

Struggling to match the EUR/USD rally with an Asian high of  1.6180 as the EUR/GBP consolidates.

There are offers in the cross up around 0.8220/25 (Dec highs) which look likely to be challenged and cable has some fibonacci resistance around  1.6185 as well as an option expiry today at 1.6175 ( the size of which i don’t have at the moment).

Cable does have some bids in the 1.6140/50 zone  and more down at 1.6080/00 from sovereigns /real money/M/E names,  with sell stops below through 1.6075.  Offers now rest from 1.6180 up to 1.6200 (Middle Eastern names apparently again in the frame)

GBP/USD’s  sitting around 1.6150 with the cross at 0.8213

 

Swiss Dec CPI -0.2% m/m, -0.4% y/y

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:17 AM PST

Expectations were for flat m/m and -0.2%y/y, after readings of -0.3% and -0.4% in November

Spanish Nov Industrial output falls -7.2% y/y

Posted: 11 Jan 2013 12:03 AM PST

Sharp decline from a revised  -3.1% in October and the 15th consecutive monthly fall.

:(

Here’s one for you Yen bears..

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 11:59 PM PST

Jim O’Neill, he  of the ‘ Vampire Squid’ , sees the Yen sinking a lot further… as the currency remains notably overvalued versus the USD

Nice read from the highly respected  chairman of GS asset management.

Full story from the Business Insider here…

 

EU’s Rehn: Euro shows resilience, doomsayers are ‘behind the curve’

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 11:22 PM PST

  • Sentiment index is showing ‘signs of stabilization’
  • Economy ‘remain weak’, but growth will return ‘gradually’
  • Mustn’t lower guard, have to continue reforms

Bloomberg reporting

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 11:19 PM PST

 

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD: 1.3100, 1.3200, 1.3350

GBP/USD: 1.6175

USD/JPY: 88.25

AUD/JPY: 92.00

NZD/USD: 0.8225

Swedish unemployment rises to 8.9% in December

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 11:07 PM PST

Up from 8.6% in November,

Labour office reports redundancy notices rose 5,695 last month

Shanghai Composite closes down 1.8%

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 11:05 PM PST

That’s a net fall of 1.5% on the week, and the first weekly fall in over a month, but largely due to some profit taking.

EX BOJ’s Iwata: Japan should have a flexible inflation target…

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:52 PM PST

…Which could include measures of prices and employment.

  • Jobless rate needs to fall to 3.5% for wages to go up
  • Sees Fed ending QE program earlier than expected, US economy is recovering
  • Would be better if yen weakens to around 95 to the dollar
(Still no one taking the bait….?)
USD/JPY’s  around 88.94

ADB’s Kuroda: Yen’s still overvalued, further yen decline wouldn’t be out of place

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:46 PM PST

  • Important BOJ commits to unlimited asset purchases to achieve inflation goal of 2%

Normally i’d think that would get the bulls snorting again in USD/JPY but think they’re having an afternoon ‘ siesta’ after the recent rampages.

USD/JPY trading around 88.92

Reminds me of a joke but its not one i could put on the site..       ;)

Will it be a risk off Friday or more of the same?

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:39 PM PST

I really don’t know… were up over 200 pips in EUR/USD since i parked my backside down yesterday morning, courtesy of Chinese data and ‘Super Mario’ and the move has been consolidated in Asia, but no immediate gain so far on the late NY high/Asian open of 1.3280.

The USD/JPY looks to have the psychological 90.00 level in its sights, but i’d expect some pretty stern resistance ahead of it,  as well as ahead of 1.3300 in the EUR/USD.

AUD/USD has so far failed to remove the 1.0600 barrier but this could be the nearest target especially if the EUR/AUD  begins to retrace the 180 pip rally from yesterday.

EUR/USD bids rest down in the 1.3240/50 zone with more at 1.3200/10 from sovereigns and real money, and there is talk of sell stops just below 1.3200. Offers start from the o/n high 1.3280 up to 1.3310 (1.3309 Dec 19 high) with likely buy stops just above.

USD/JPY bids start from 88.80/90 with more down at 88.40/50. Offers seen ahead of barriers at 89.50 and 90.00.

EUR/JPY bids  are down at 117.00.20, possible stops just below. Offers  118.50/60 but larger up ahead of 119.00 (possible/unconfirmed barrier)

AUD/USD targeting the 1.0600 barrier, likely buy stops above ahead of tech res 1.0625 (high of  Sep 14 high) , bids start from 1.0555/65 with  larger down at 1.0490/10

Nikkei soars to close up 1.4% at 10,801.57

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:03 PM PST

TOPIX closed up 1.09% at 898.69

Moody’s downgrades Cyprus to Caa3, warns may cut more…

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 10:00 PM PST

More gloom and doom for the beleaguered island wracked with the Greek crisis exposure..

“We think that there’s a higher likelihood that the government may default outright or press for a distressed exchange,” said Sarah Carlson, a senior credit officer with Moody’s sovereign risk group.

Full Reuters story here..

Britain should stay and fight for a better Europe

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 09:36 PM PST

Another view from Jeremy Warner in the Telegraph over UK’s part in the EU  who says ” It’s none of America’s business, but it’s hard to see what we’d achieve by abandoning the European Union”

More…

We cannot let America’s tactical interests dictate Britain’s sovereign destiny

Posted: 10 Jan 2013 09:26 PM PST

AEP in the Telegraph on the recent  warnings on a BRIXIT  from the EU by the White house

The British play a key balancing role within the EU system, working with a patchwork of coalitions – typically with the Germans on trade, competition, and economic issues.

The EU would undoubtedly become a different animal post BRIXIT. The dirigiste and protectionists forces would start to gain the upper hand, much to the horror of Germany, Holland, Denmark, Sweden, and Ireland, and a few (but not all) of the East Europeans.

There is certainly a case to be made that the EU would start to unravel. It has always been my view (not widely shared) that British withdrawal would be a body blow to the EU Project. Yet the debate always focuses on how much damage Britain would or would not suffer, as if the EU would simply go on as before. That is a static and essentially empty debate.

So yes, the Americans want us to do their lobbying for them inside the EU. If you read the WikiLeaks Cables from London to Washington, this is made crystal clear. There is nothing wrong with this. It is entirely understandable. Indeed, the cables offer a very benign picture of US diplomacy. They refute evil empire claims.

But at the end of the day, the British people cannot let America's taste for tidy structures in Europe determine policy on matters that go to the heart of our democracy and sovereign self-government.

Full article here 


at 6:06 PM

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