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Monday, January 14, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Eurozone Nov Industrial production -0.3% m/m, -3.7% y/y

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 02:00 AM PST

from a revised -1.0% m/m and -3.3% y/y

EUR/CHF extends rally……

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 01:46 AM PST

Shall we call it the ‘Barclays factor’  ;)

We’re at 1.2240.

For those who like to live dangerously and trade this particular puppy,  there is talk of some buy stops through 1.2250……

Cable feeling the pressure from a firm EUR/GBP

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 01:27 AM PST

GBP/USD’s been under pressure this morning as  the cross targets a barrier at 0.8300 (0.8299 Asian high).

Middle Eastern names have apparently been seen selling cable earlier this morning but bids ahead of 1.6110 are currently deterring further falls and technical support lies below at 1.6089 ( Friday’s low). Offers  remain up above at 1.6180/00 (1.6182  Jan 10 high , Kijun line 1.6186).

Citi has been on the wires ( Dow Jones reporting) suggesting any pull backs in EUR/GBP  will offer up buying opportunities on the basis of sterling’s diminishing safe-haven demand , weak UK data and a potential sovereign downgrade, but states that caution should also be exercised. Cross bids are  now seen 0.8270/80, with offers remaining in place ahead of the 0.8300 barrier.

Cable’s trading around 1.6135 after lows of  1.6115, with the cross around 0.8284

EUR/USD buy interest emerges right on schedule…..

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 01:27 AM PST

Earlier talk had buy orders clustered 1.3345/55 and it proved to be right on the money.

We got as low as 1.3348 before rebounding, presently at 1.3369.

Like shelling feckin peas………..

19 pips in the old bin ;)

ECB’s Praet: Monetary policy stance is appropriate

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 01:22 AM PST

  • Downside risks to growth still prevail, but we have stopped self-reinforcing downward spiral
  • Addressing euro zone break-up “fear factor” much more important than cutting interest rates

Italian Nov Industrial production -1.0% m/m

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 01:01 AM PST

Weaker than market expectations of a  flat reading,  and a 3rd consecutive sharp fall after -1.1% m/m , -6.2% y/y in Oct

Work day adjusted output fell 7.6% y/y from -6.1% in Oct

My favourite bank is bullish EUR/CHF

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 12:57 AM PST

Good old Barclays like EUR/CHF.

According to Dow Jones, the bank  says the recent rally has “ignited renewed investor interest with strong volumes” going on to opine that the move “should now go on to test 1.2275 and then the 2011 peak of 1.2475.”

We’re presently at 1.2217.

I was bullish down at 1.20-1.21 as I saw the peg holding.   Admittedly not quite so bullish above 1.2200, but then that’s just me. Once a pussy always a pussy I guess……

Barrier talk

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 12:40 AM PST

Hearing the following this morning

EUR/USD: 1.3450, 1.3500

EUR/GBP : 0.8300

AUD/USD: 1.0600

USD/JPY: 90.00

 

EUR/USD poll!!

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 12:39 AM PST

We’re at 1.3355

What’ll we see first 1.3255 or 1.3455?

Reason/s for choice always appreciated, but not obligatory.

EUR/USD slips back in early Europe

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 12:16 AM PST

Down at 1.3360 from the 1.3385 which greeted me. Some fund selling noted.

Talk of buy orders clustered 1.3345/55 and 1.3305/15.

No idea where sell stops hiding. 

Sell orders clustered 1.3415/25 and 1.3440/50 ahead of 1.3450 barrier option interest.

Not much on the data front this morning.

10:00 GMT: Euro zone industrial production expected +0.2% m/m, -3.1% y/y.

Much focus on what Bernanke will have to say later in the day.  Due to speak 21:00 GMT.

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 12:11 AM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

 

EUR/USD: 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400

GBP/USD: 1.6100, 1.6130, 1.6200

USD/JPY: 88.50, 89.00, 89.50

EUR/JPY: 119.00

AUD/USD: 1.0510, 1.0550, 1.0600

NZD/USD: 0.8300

USD/JPY targeting barriers at 90.00

Posted: 14 Jan 2013 12:06 AM PST

After highs of 89.67 in Asia the pair’s backed off a touch but remains well underpinned through the crosses. A clean break of the psychological 90.00 level targets the highs of  June 2010 of 92.89. (The break up through 89.21 on Friday entered into the monthly Ichimoku cloud) .

Bids are seen from 89.25 down to 89.00 with more down at 88.70/80. Offers remain from 89.60 up to the 90.00 barrier

EUR/JPY took out the 120.00 barrier in Asia to 120.13 but lack of follow through has seen the pair drift off to 119.39 in  light volume trading.  Bids sit down at 119.00/10 and 118.50/60

USD’s presently around 89.36 with the EUR at 119.45

1.0600 proving a step too far for the AUD/USD?

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 11:28 PM PST

There’s a well defended barrier at 1.0600 which isn’t currently being tested as the EUR/AUD  keeps on course for a retest of  late December highs around 1.2807.

AUD/USD’s had a quiet session in Asia with Japan on holiday but remains supported by a rampant AUD/JPY which is targeting  100.00 and August 2008 highs  of 101.55 as the yen weakness continues.

Bids  lie from 1.0520 down to 1.0500 with some sell stops just below ahead of further bids 1.0465/75. Offers remain in place from 1.0580 up to the documented barrier at 1.0600 with technical resistance above at 1.0625(Sept 14 high) . A break here likely to trigger buy stops  and spark an accelerated move  to 1.0690/00

AUD’s currently trading around  1.0552 after a 1.0526-63 range in Asia

UK’s Cameron: We’re better off in the EU

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 11:26 PM PST

  • We know we need to be in Europe
  • I’m not happy with every aspect of the EU
  • There’s too much interference, bossiness from EU
  • We won’t join the euro while I’m Prime Minister
  • We shouldn’t be scared of involving British people

German December wholesale prices unchanged m/m, +3.2% y/y

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 11:03 PM PST

Wholesale prices average for whole of 2012 up 2.8% vs 2011.

Will this data impact forex?, not a jot.

The Spike In China’s Exports Doesn’t Make Sense

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 10:30 PM PST

Goldman Sachs and UBS  reckon recent data  out of China could be a tad fishy, with increases proclaimed not matching the movement of goods through ports and imports from trading partners

More... Business Insider

Abe aids Bernanke as Japan seen buying foreign debt

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 10:20 PM PST

European stocks seen moderately higher

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 10:05 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE opening up around +0.3%, DAX and CAC 40 up around +0.4%.

French capital flight spikes as Hollande hits business

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 10:03 PM PST

Ex Treas Sec Summers: ‘Fiscal cliff deal is a ‘reasonable’ but not ‘total’ solution

Posted: 13 Jan 2013 09:51 PM PST

  • US still faces critical growth issues
  • Expects Q4 US GDP growth of around 1%
  • Urges ‘fair amount of caution’ on global situation
  • Chinese Yuan isn’t undervalued like it was 5 yrs ago
  • Everyone wants to save , not spend and invest

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