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Eurozone December inflation 0.4% m/m, 2.2% y/y
Cable trying to steady after early swoon. Talk of barrier option interest not too far away
Japan opposition DPJ leader: Japan must not allow leadership vacuum when appointing new BOJ governor
EUR/JPY under pressure
Italian Nov world trade surplus Eur 2.363 bln
I’m bored; time for some good music……..
ECB’s Nowotny sees stabilization in the Eurozone
Ex-BOJ Dep Gov Iwata: Excessive, prolonged yen rises aggravate deflation
Cable giving ground, stops tripped
Swiss retail sales up +2.9% y/y in November
Today’s auctions…
Why The ECB Policy Will Be More Supportive Of The Euro This Year
How about a USD/JPY poll?
Today’s orderboard
Japan chief cabinet secretary Suga: Excessive yen strength is being corrected
EU new car registrations fall -16.3% in December
ECB’s Praet: ECB has no exchange-rate target – La Libre
This one’s for Wayne
Today’s option expiries
European stocks look set to open little mixed

Eurozone December inflation 0.4% m/m, 2.2% y/y

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 02:01 AM PST

Cable trying to steady after early swoon. Talk of barrier option interest not too far away

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 01:59 AM PST

Cable presently at 1.6022 having earlier posted session low 1.6005.

Talk of middle eastern sovereign buying around the lows.

More interestingly, talk of barrier option interest at 1.5990.

The recent low for cable was 1.5992 on January 9th.

Talk of further sell stops through 1.5990.

I DEMAND THAT THIS 1.5990 BARRIER OPTION INTEREST IS DESTROYED BY THE END OF THE WEEK!!!! (just joshing with ya, my medication is a little screwed up this morning)

Japan opposition DPJ leader: Japan must not allow leadership vacuum when appointing new BOJ governor

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 01:20 AM PST

Next BOJ governor should not be government ‘yes man’ (yer, good luck with that one pumpkin)

EUR/JPY under pressure

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 01:18 AM PST

I blame Juncker myself…

Posting fresh day’s/week low of 116.47 and any bounces have been unimpressive. The tenkan line at 116.84 has now been breached which signals a bearish tone if it closes below there tonight. More bids are seen down at 116.00/10 .

USD/JPY’s also below its tenkan line (88.25) and likewise a close below there tonight would also point to a bearish scenario, but bids around 87.80 after recent stops were triggered through 87.85 have so far soaked up the supply. More bids/support seen below at 87.50/60.

USD’s around 87.89 with the cross around 116.70

Italian Nov world trade surplus Eur 2.363 bln

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 01:02 AM PST

From a Eur 1.585 bln deficit a year earlier

EU trade saw a November surplus of Eur 508 mln from a Eur 472 mln deficit a year earlier

I’m bored; time for some good music……..

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:54 AM PST

ECB’s Nowotny sees stabilization in the Eurozone

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:43 AM PST

Eastern European expectations have also stabilized
No crisis of the Euro, only of some member states
Still sees eurozone growth shrinking in 2013, but a clear revival in 2014
Monetary policy transmission didn’t function for ECB
OMT meant to restart monetary transmission. OMT is monetary , not fiscal policy
ECB’s non standard measures have had effects . Risk premiums have fallen
On a good course, but still not there yet for long term equilibrium
Eastern Europe should join single supervisory mechanism, even if not a euro member

Bloomberg reporting

Ex-BOJ Dep Gov Iwata: Excessive, prolonged yen rises aggravate deflation

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:33 AM PST

Quantitative easing is effective in beating deflation if size is sufficient and taken via appropriate means
Excessive yen rises now being corrected, Japan may be able to beat deflation if policymakers seize the moment

Reuters reporting.

Cable giving ground, stops tripped

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:23 AM PST

Told ya it looked like an accident waiting to happen majimaji

Stops gone through 1.6020 and we’re down at 1.6013.

More sell stops said to be gathered down through 1.5990.

Swiss retail sales up +2.9% y/y in November

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:19 AM PST

Compared to +2.7% in October.

I thought I saw a median forecast of +3.4% somewhere, so not as strong as expected I guess

Today’s auctions…

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 12:03 AM PST

Germany’s looking to sell up to Eur 5 bln of new 1.5% Feb 2023 bunds.

Portugal’s looking to sell Eur 2.25-2.5 bln of April 2013 and July 2014 T-Bills.

Results expected around 1030 GMT and 1045 GMT respectively

Why The ECB Policy Will Be More Supportive Of The Euro This Year

Posted: 15 Jan 2013 11:49 PM PST

A view from Deutsche Bank’s strategist George Saravelos ….

“Despite a sluggish growth outlook, we see two reasons why ECB policy will be more supportive of the euro in 2013. First, we don't believe the ECB will cut deposit rates to negative, because these risk tightening rather than easing financial conditions. Second, after a year where ECB balance sheet growth outpaced all other central banks, we think 2013 will see the opposite. The LTRO window that opens at the end of January will give Eurozone banks the option to pre- pay close to 1 trillion of liquidity on a rolling weekly basis, providing much more two-way risk to the ECB balance sheet. Even if the ECB activates OMT or engages in purchases of private-sector assets to further ease monetary policy transmission, the size is likely to be significantly smaller than Fed QE, while also serving to compress Eurozone risk premia.”

(eFXnews)

How about a USD/JPY poll?

Posted: 15 Jan 2013 11:30 PM PST

As we’ve reached something of an interesting impasse in that pairing after the recent one way ticket to the moon

We’re at 88.18

What’ll we see first 86.00 or 90.00. I know the yen bears get a slight head start, but what’s 18 pips between friends…..

I’d put this one in the ‘very tricky’ category

Reason/s as usual much appreciated, but ofcourse not obligatory.

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 15 Jan 2013 11:15 PM PST

EUR/USD: Bids 1.3240/60 (1.3249- 38.2% of 1.2998-1.3404) sell stops below ahead of bids 1.3200/10 (1.3200 Kijun line). Offers 1.3300/20 buy stops above through 1.3330

GBP/USD: Tech pivot zone 1.6065/72 (55/100 day MA's). Bids 1.6020/40 (daily cloud base 1.6020) talk of sell stops just below ahead of further support 1.5995/10, sell stops below through 1.5990.Offers 1.6080/00 (tenkan line 1.6087) and tech res 1.6145/55 (Mon high 1.6155)

EUR/GBP: Bids 0.8260/75 (0.8263- 38.2% 0.9084/0.7756 fall) and tech supp/bids 0.8230/40. Offers 0.8320/30 and 0.8355/60 (0.8359 April 3 2012 high)

USD/JPY: Bids 87.90/00 (importers, macro funds) sell stops through 87.85 ahead of bids 87.50/60, possible sell stops below. Offers 88.20/35 (tenkan line 88.25, 200 hr MA 88.35) and 88.80/00

EUR/JPY: Strong bids 116.85/00 (tenkan line 116.85) possible sell stops below ahead of supp 116.50/60. Offers 117.50/60, larger up at 118.00/20

AUD/JPY: Bids 92.85/00 (tenkan line 92.90). Possible sell stops down through 92.85 .Offers 93.25/35 and 93.80/00

AUD/USD: Offers 1.0570/80, larger up at 1.0590/00 (1.0600 barrier). Bids 1.0520/30 and 1.0495/10 (tenkan line 1.0497) sell stops below each ahead of tech support /bids 1.0445/65 (55 day MA 1.0451,)

NZD/USD: offers 0.8450/60, some buy stops through 0.8475/80buy stops just above ahead of larger offers 0.8490/00 (0.8500 barrier) buy stops above. Bids from 0.8390 down to 0.8370 sell stops below through 0.8360.