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Thursday, January 17, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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Spain gets its’ dosh, raises 4.505 bln

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 01:45 AM PST

Top of the 3.5-4.5 bln range.

2015 bond bid to cover ratio 2.0 compared to 4.8 last time

2018 bond bid to cover ratio 2.3 compared to 2.6 last time

2041 bond bid to cover ratio 2.0, same as last time

2015 average yield 2.713% from 3.358% last time

2018 average yield 3.770% from 3.988% last time

2041 average yield 5.696% from 6.002% last time

That’ll do nicely……

EUR/USD makes new session high in wake of bond auction results, presently at 1.3355.

Spanish auction results up soon

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 01:43 AM PST

 Talk they have gone well helping support EUR/USD.

Will be interesting to see whether we get a buy the rumour sell the fact reaction on release of results.

EUR/USD slips back from highs

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 01:28 AM PST

The aforementioned  ’corporate’ sell interest up at 1.3350/70 proved durable first time round.

From session high 1.3353 we’re back at 1.3337.

Some real money selling also noted around the highs.

Slaughtering some sacred trade cows

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 01:22 AM PST

The OECD and the WTO have reviewed trade figures from 40 major countries to take into account the huge increase in re-export trade that is occurring as a result of globalisation; their report shows that trade imbalances in official statistics are often well overstated.

  • China's bilateral trade surplus with the United States shrinks by 25% on a value-added basis, reflecting the high level of foreign-sourced content in Chinese exports
  • One-third of the total value of motor vehicles exported from Germany actually comes from other countries, while nearly 40% of the total value of China's electronics exports come from foreign sources.
  • While conventional trade data suggests that services represent less than one-quarter of total trade,  on a value-added basis services trade reaches an average 50% of OECD countries' exports, and well above that in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy

 New OECD-WTO analysis highlights changing face of global trade

 

  • In value-added terms, China takes only 17 per cent of Australia's exports compared with 21 per cent in the official figures, Japan takes 15 per cent compared with 19 per cent and Korea 6 per cent compared with 8 per cent.
  • It says 40 per cent of Australia's gross exports represent value-added goods from the services sector

China less important to export success

Greek FinMin Stournaras: It is too early to declare victory, this year crucial

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 01:18 AM PST

  • Biggest risk to Greece comes from political pressure to ease reform efforts
  • Greece hopes to achieve small primary budget surplus in 2013
  • “Big thorn” of unemployment will continue to rise in 2013, recession seen easing by end of year
  • Greece expects to meet 2.6 billion euro privatisation target in 2013
  • Greece may need less than the 50 bln euros set aside for bank recapitalisation due to merger savings
  • Rules out another debt buyback, says no discussion on official sector haircut

EUR/USD extend rally, stops tripped

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:48 AM PST

Nice to see you took up my invitation to prove me wrong.

Buy stops tripped through 1.3330 and we’ve been as high as 1.3345.

Next hurdle for euro bulls some ‘corporate’ sell orders said to be lined up at 1.3350/70.

Cable struggling to bounce as EUR/GBP flaps its wings again

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:46 AM PST

1.6020/30  now looking to offer some s/term resistance this morning as cable lags the EUR/USD rally, but a break there will open the way again into the cloud base at 1.6043, and then towards the 55 and 100 day MA’s at  1.6062/74 ahead of yesterday’s 1.6080 high.

There’s also an option expiry today at 1.6075 which could attract should a rally be forthcoming. On the downside bids  remain  at 1.5970/80 with likely sell stops just below.

EUR/GBP’s up at fresh day’s highs of  0.8328, and a break of  0.8330 targets the April 3 2012 highs of 0.8359. Bids remain down at 0.8300/10

Cable’s presently trading around 1.6020

Japanese Vice FinMin Yamaguchi: Expects BOJ, government policy agreement

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:40 AM PST

  • Will attend BOJ meeting next week
  • Will keep fiscal discipline in FY2013 budget
  • Will try to prevent market concern on fiscal policy
  • Don’t have to abide by DPJ cap on bond sales

Bloomberg reporting

Cypriot corporate tax considered for bailout

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:34 AM PST

The ‘troika’ will consider looking at Cyprus’s top rate of corporate tax as it assesses Cyprus’s call for  bailout according to German Govt spokesman Seibert

ekathimerini reporting

Dutch December adj unemployment 7.2%

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:32 AM PST

Up from 7.0% in November.

Whoa, whoa and thrice whoa :(

Swiss producer/import prices rise +0.1% in Dec after a flat reading in Nov

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:17 AM PST

December y/y rose 1.0% after 1.2 in November

EUR/USD touch firmer as EUR/CHF rallies

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:16 AM PST

EUR/USD garnering modicum of support from rally in the EUR/CHF cross.   Presently at 1.3307. Buy stops noted through 1.3330. Do I think they’ll come into play this morning?  Probably not.  Now go and prove me wrong why don’t ya ;)

EU’s Rehn: France may need to take more steps to curb its deficit

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 12:12 AM PST

  • Country needs wide-ranging structural reforms
  • Particular attention needs to be paid to unemployment
  • Country has serious external imbalances

Bloomberg reporting

EUR/CHF rallying again

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 11:58 PM PST

Up at session high 1.2425 at writing.

Large Swiss name notable seller of swissy in this move.

Next hurdle 1.2450 barrier interest.  Heftier barrier interest noted at 1.2500.

Spain goes to the well this morning

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 11:57 PM PST

Along with a host of other European states , but this likely to hold the most interest..

Spain is looking to sell  3.75%  Oct 2015 , and 4.5% Jan 2018 Bonos, along with 4.7% July 2041 Obligaciones. Total targeted amount Eur 3.5-4.5 bln.

Auction results due around 0940 GMT

EUR/JPY runs into offers ahead of 118.00

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 11:35 PM PST

For how long i don’t know but  the o/n high of 118.20 failing to be breached despite officials comments on the yen weakness.

Offers starting now from 117.90 through to the Asian high , with  buy stops just above through 118.25.

Bids remain down at 117.00/10, with talk of sell stops through 116.80/85 (118.84 tenkan line) ahead of bids 115.50/60.

Cross sits around 117.84

More from Japan’s Ishiba… Monentary policy needs to be aggressive to help economic recovery

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 11:27 PM PST

  • Must correct excessive yen strength to prevent Japanese industry hollowing out

Reuters reporting

…Actions not word needed here now as market shrugs off the comments. USD/JPY off recent  88.75 highs to rest around 88.60

Japan’s LDSP Ishiba: Yen is in the process of escaping from excessive strength

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 11:09 PM PST

Another USD/JPY positive comment after Amari’s  statement that his comments earlier in the week were misinterpreted.

I still can’t find the original comment today from Amari but its’ also being reported by DJ/ Bloomberg

USD/JPY chugging higher now through  88.70 towards o/n highs around  88.79.

Japan’s Sato: Yen may drop further depending on the U.S. economy

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 10:54 PM PST

  • Japan need policies for long-term growth

Bloomberg reporting

Sato is the Chairman of the Japanese Banking Association

USD/JPY steady around 88.58

1.3300 still proving a hurdle for the EUR/USD

Posted: 16 Jan 2013 10:51 PM PST

Still holding within yesterday’s range (1.3256-1.3325) after a recent downside test faltered into bids  at 1.3270. The rally coming on the back of a EUR/JPY  u-turn after Japan’s Econ Min Amari supposedly seen on wires ( Reuters reporting) that he denied saying the 100 USD/JPY level was a ‘turning point’ and that market misinterpreted his comments.

No change really on the order board here with bids seen from 1.3270 down to 1.3240 (1.3249- 38.2% of 1.2 998-1.3404). Sell stops sit just below ahead of more bids in the 1.3200/20 zone( kijun line 1.3201, tenkan line 1.3211) with likely sell stops through 1.3190.

Topside offers remain in place from 1.3310 to 1.3330 with buy stops just above.

EUR’s presently trading around 1.3296


at 6:04 PM

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