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Friday, January 18, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

EUR/CHF: Just seen on twitter

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:56 AM PST

Talk in Swiss press that government there wants SNB to raise peg to 1.2500 from current 1.2000.

What press?, who knows.

Funnily enough EUR/CHF trading lower on the day, presently at 1.2490 from the 1.2540 which greeted me.  Sounds like a major Swiss player has been booking some well-earned profit.

I’m now taking a little break

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:39 AM PST

Talk among yourselves.

I’ll be back in 15 minutes…….possibly

UK December retail sales weaker than expected

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:30 AM PST

Retail sales inclusive fuel -0.1% m/m, +0.3% y/y compared to Reuters’ median poll of +0.2%, +1.1% y/y respectively

Cable accelerates sell-0ff, presently 1.5930.

Retail sales ex-fuel -0.3% m/m, +1.1% y/y compared to Reuters’ median poll of +0.1%, +2.1% respectively.

Spain bad loan ratio up to 11.38% in November – Bank of Spain

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 01:16 AM PST

From 11.23% in October :(

That’s not good.

EUR/USD extends slide to 1.3353.

Who was that bloke who said never buy cable on a Friday?

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 12:43 AM PST

Oh yer me.

Stops have gone off in cable through 1.5950 and we’ve been as low as 1.5940 so far.

UPDATE:  Real money, CTAs among notable sellers in latest leg lower apparently.

Spain November nsa industrial orders -4.0% y/y

Posted: 18 Jan 2013 12:17 AM PST

Ughh :(

Nasty turnaround from the +5.3% seen in October.

EUR/USD has slipped back to 1.3378.

EUR/USD moved………..I swear it did

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:51 PM PST

We’re up at 1.3393.

Talk of some sovereign sell interest parked 1.3395/00.  Buy stops through 1.3405 or 1.3410 depending on who you listen to.

What we need is a BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG tapebomb ;)

UPDATE:   1.3399 bid…….1.3387 Offered.  Joined the sovereign and made my 10 pips for the day  ;)

UPDATE:  Bugger, why didn’t I wait :)

Earthquake felt in Leicestershire – Sky News

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:32 PM PST

Magnitude 2.9!!!

USD/JPY has gone eerily quiet again……..

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 11:12 PM PST

Spooky.  The calm before the next storm?

Japanese exporter selling above the psychological 90.00 level has slowed the never-ending sojourn higher.

Talk they’re now parked up at 90.15/25.  Above there sell orders clustered 90.40/50 unsurprisingly. Talk of barrier option interest at 90.50 and again at 90.75.

Downside, buy orders clustered 89.50/60.  Again struggling to find where sell stops hiding, probably close below 89.50 I’d suspect.

Cable steady early; UK retail sales due later

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:59 PM PST

Well to be honest everything’s rather steady early, just how I like it on a Friday. Ease gentle into the weekend……  ;)

Cable sits at 1.5975.

Buy orders clustered 1.5950/60, sell stops below.  Sell orders clustered 1.6000/10 and more noticeably 1.6040/50.  Yesterday talk of buy stops through 1.6055 and I’m pretty sure that’s still the case.

09:30 GMT sees release of retail sales for December, expected +0.1% m/m, +2.0% y/y.

AUD/USD poll

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:34 PM PST

If anyone really cares anymore ;)

We sit at 1.0525

What’ll we see first, 1.0425 or 1.0625?

Reason/s for choice always welcome but not obligatory.

 

A new Gold Standard is being born

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:28 PM PST

Quiet EUR/USD trade in Asia, consoldates recent gains

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:16 PM PST

EUR/USD sits at 1.3385, very close to where it closed out Thursday in North America.

No major euro zone economic data releases scheduled for today from what I can see.

Talk of buy orders clustered down at 1.3340/50, sell orders clustered up at 1.3395/1.3405.  Talk of buy stops through 1.3405 and 1.3410, take your pick. As we always say, what are 5 pips between friends.

Haven’t a clue as yet where sell stops hiding :) Bummer.

So what do y’all think. What are we more likely to see in USD/JPY this year, 80.00 or 100.00?

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 10:09 PM PST

Japan’s preference for weaker JPY reconfirmed….All the way towards 100 – Barclays

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:52 PM PST

Japan govt has done nothing yet beside talk; USD/JPY to fall back to 80 – HSBC

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:44 PM PST

Hamada’s comments being repeated on newswires

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:38 PM PST

  • 110 is too weak, while 95, 100 no problem for Japan (*obviously referring to USD/JPY)
  • Need to bring Yen back to good level for Japan
  • Wonders if he needs to advise Econ Minister Amari on Yen

Ideas Corner/January 18th

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:32 PM PST

Got any ideas you’d like to share with your fellow readers, then here’s where to stick ‘em

Hamada: BOJ shouldn’t restrict term of its expansionary policy as long as deflation or recession continue

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:18 PM PST

Hamada is Abe’s Economic Adviser

Also says:

  • Dont like the idea of ‘infinite’ easing as inflation pressure could always sneak in, term must be decided by looking at economic conditions
  • There should be some amendment to present BOJ law so BOJ can’t engage in too restrictive monetary policy

ForexLive Asia Wrap: AUD weaker on slightly better Chinese GDP figures

Posted: 17 Jan 2013 09:01 PM PST

  • New Zealand Q4 CPI -0.2% Q/Q (vs. +0.1% expected)
  • Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa, Finance Minister Taro Aso and economic and fiscal policy minister Akira Amari met today to discuss Government/BOJ relations, drafting a joint statement etc.
  • There were multiple statements from Aso and Amari, none of which had much impact
  • However, in the afternoon, Koichi Hamada, key economic adviser to Abe was reported on Bloomberg as saying that USD/JPY at 100 is good for Japan's economy sent USD/JPY above its NY high at 90.14 to a high of 90.21
  • China Q4 GDP came in slightly above expectations at +7.9% Y/Y (vs. +7.8% expected)
  • China December Industrial Production also a little better +10.3% Y/Y (vs. +10.2 expected)
  • China December Retail Sales +15.2% Y/Y (vs. +15.1% expected)
  • Final November Japan Industrial Production -1.4% M/M (+1.7% prior)
  • Final Japan Capacity Utilization -0.2%M/M (prior was 1.6%)
  • U.S. Auto Lobby Urges Obama to Study Measures against Weak Yen

The NZD/USD was the early mover, losing more than half a cent on the lower than expected CPI. It recovered a little, putting in a 50% retracement of the gap down before tumbling again in the afternoon to new lows at 0.8340.

AUD/USD waited half the day for the GDP figures out of China, everyone expecting a good result given the recent upward revisions after the blow-out trade figures from last week. It seems as well as expecting a good result there were quite a few positioned for it. The AUD jumped from 1.0530 to 1.0555 and fell back to 30 just as quickly … the market having set itself long. There was then very little wait as it dipped to a new low on the day, getting down towards yesterdays lows where bids emerged again to hold it. As I write it is not bouncing …

USD/JPY had a quiet day until after the Tokyo lunch period, when Hamada's comments saw it break above the NY high at 90.14, but only as high as 90.21. As I write its consolidating around 90.05/10.

EUR/CHF moved strongly higher on the day


at 6:05 PM

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