| 2007 FOMC Transcripts published Posted: 19 Jan 2013 03:43 PM PST No doubt we’ll hear a lot more about this in the news and blogs in coming days: US Fed missed crisis warning signs Top policymakers at the Federal Reserve felt for most of 2007 that problems in housing and banking were isolated and unlikely to tear down the US economy as they ultimately did.
Even as crisis signals started flashing red with the freezing of credit markets during the summer, Fed officials believed the troubles would be moderate and short-lived, according to transcripts of the 2007 meetings released on Friday in the US after the customary five-year lag.
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| Rebound in Asian air-freight Posted: 19 Jan 2013 03:39 PM PST Rebound in Asian cargo buoys US shippers A pickup in air cargo shipments from Asia may benefit shares of Expeditors International and FedEx as global economic growth improves. Exports at Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals grew 5.9 per cent last month from a year earlier, following an 8.5 per cent increase in November, based on data from the biggest handler in the world’s busiest freight airport.
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| Greece: Six-month break from austerity Posted: 19 Jan 2013 03:38 PM PST |
| Australia: Swan still optimistic on surplus … Posted: 19 Jan 2013 03:38 PM PST Swan eyes surplus in far distance (Aust. Fin. Review – Gated, a news search on the headline may turn up something) The Labor Government is laying the groundwork to fight this year's election campaign on its economic credibility despite abandoning its surplus pledge, with Treasurer Wayne Swan claiming to have found more than $250 billion in savings to pay for ambitious social policies.
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| Japan Weekend Press (so far) Posted: 19 Jan 2013 03:38 PM PST There’s nothing new here, mainly a review of some of the week’s developments. Crédit Agricole: we expect the BoJ to expand the asset purchase fund by JPY10trn at the monetary policy meeting Ministers hint BOJ warming to 2% inflation target Members of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Cabinet hinted Friday that the Bank of Japan is moving closer to setting a 2 percent inflation target in a joint statement on policy coordination aimed at conquering deflation. The BOJ is scheduled to start a two-day Policy Board meeting Monday
BOJ Deposit Rate Cut Sign in Cash Operation Flops: Japan Credit The failure of seven funding operations by the Bank of Japan is signaling expectations that policy makers will cut deposit rates. … "Considering the current outlook for rates, banks have no incentive to borrow," Takafumi Yamawaki, Tokyo-based chief rates strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co
Deflation so prolonged it’s now considered normal A decade and a half after Japan slumped into deflation, the Bank of Japan is set to signal its strongest effort yet to reverse the trend. The biggest challenge may be that the nation has come to rely on falling prices… “The key is wages,” said Nobuyasu Atago, principal economist at the Japan Center for Economic Research and a former BOJ official in charge of price data. “Without pay increases, the economy won’t recover and households will only suffer from inflation.” The powerful Keidanren business lobby signaled it won’t endorse pay raises during the regular wage negotiations with labor unions this spring. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party is considering tax breaks for companies that raise pay or expand hiring.
Monetary-easing steps fell short: Abe adviser Hamada hits DPJ deflation inaction Koichi Hamada, one of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s special advisers, on Friday condemned past governments led by the Democratic Party of Japan for not pressing the Bank of Japan to conduct enough monetary easing steps to fight the country’s prolonged deflation.
‘Abenomics’ theorist wants further easing, yen’s depreciation "Economic statistics show how the Bank of Japan alone (among central banks of developed countries) has been reluctant to expand credit, naturally resulting in the yen's excessive appreciation," It should be "worried" only when the dollar/yen rate falls to 110 yen or below, a level prior to the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, which triggered a worldwide economic crisis, Hamada said. "But 100 or 95 is nothing to worry about," he added.
Japan’s initial FY 2013 budget to total record-high 93 tril. yen |
| China Weekend Press (so far) Posted: 19 Jan 2013 03:38 PM PST There’s nothing new here, mainly a review of some of the week’s developments. China Power Output Rises to Four-Month High as Industry Expands China's power output rose to the highest in four months in December
China Resources Output at Record Highs (WSJ – Gated, a news search on the headline may turn up something) China turned out record volumes of oil products and crude steel last year, but falling growth rates for output suggest resource producers are adjusting to the new reality of moderating growth in the domestic economy.
China business sentiment picks up in January Chinese business conditions improved in January, with new orders rising, in further evidence of companies re-stocking ahead of anticipated higher demand early this year. The Flash MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator from MNI, a unit of Deutsche Boerse Group, found that expansion was gaining traction in January, rising to 54.94, from a final figure of 52.22 in December. However, the financial positions index, which gauges corporates' financial strength, sank to 49.67 from 50.89 in the final survey for December. The availability of credit index also fell to 45.69 in January from 46.96 in December, and the production index fell to 53.08 from 55.37 in December. official data earlier on Friday showing that China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rose 7.9 per cent year-on-year in the fourth quarter, and 7.8 per cent for last year overall,
China's pleasant surprises may not last (Aust. Fin. Review – Gated, a news search on the headline may turn up something) China's growth continues to surprise on the upside, yet some strategists warn that the prospect of monetary tightening by Beijing could soon prompt a pull-back in global markets. Inflation has jumped from 1.7 per cent to 2.5 per cent in the past two months, and there have been predictions it will move towards 4 per cent, driven by pork prices.
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| 5 new reasons China and Japan may really go to war over disputed islands Posted: 19 Jan 2013 12:08 PM PST |
| Yen sell-off extends as BOJ easing expectations ramp up – BTMU Posted: 19 Jan 2013 11:36 AM PST |
| Germany’s magic eight ball: Lower Saxony vote set to shake up national race Posted: 19 Jan 2013 11:20 AM PST |
| Euro below 1.3000 in Q1/Q2 on these 5 scenarios – JP Morgan Posted: 19 Jan 2013 10:21 AM PST |
| “Detonating the Japanese debt time bomb” Posted: 19 Jan 2013 10:01 AM PST |
| Sudden swiss franc depreciation – Pictet Posted: 19 Jan 2013 09:25 AM PST |
| Review of a speech not given Posted: 19 Jan 2013 09:11 AM PST |
| IMF sees up to 9.5 billion euro Greek funding gap in 2015-2016 Posted: 19 Jan 2013 08:27 AM PST |
| Is it game over for UK retail Posted: 19 Jan 2013 08:18 AM PST |
| Barclays: We no longer see Spain asking for ESM aid; The worst probably over Posted: 19 Jan 2013 07:53 AM PST |
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