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Monday, January 21, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

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EUR/GBP stalls ahead of an 0.8410 barrier

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 01:23 AM PST

It’s been pretty much one way traffic in this pair from last Wednesday’s lows of 0.8266, and some light profit taking is now being seen after the initial 0.8400 barrier was  flushed in Asia overnight. Further gains can’t be ruled out but i’d expect some consolidation now after its meteoric rise over the last month.

This week ‘s focus will be on the jobs report and BOE Minutes on Wednesday, ahead of the UK GDP on Friday

Bids lie below in the 0.8350/60 zone  with talk of some sell stops just below. Further bids are noted below at 0.8300/10. Offers remain up at 0.8400/10 ahead of the barrier with likely buy stops above, but more offers are just behind from 0.8420 running up to 0.8450 which may also hold barrier interest.

Bids lie below in the 0.8350/60 zone  with talk of some sell stops just below. Further bids are noted below at 0.8300/10. Offers remain up at 0.8400/10 ahead of the barrier with likely buy stops above, but more offers are just behind from 0.8420 running up to 0.8450 which may also hold barrier interest.

EUR/GBP’s sitting around 0.8386

The “sell in May, come back in October” effect and its equivalent for the SNB

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 01:12 AM PST

Swiss Q3 industrial orders fall -0.7% y/y

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 12:22 AM PST

From a revised  reading of -1.6% y/y in Q2 (prev -1.1%)

S’pose that’s an improvement of sorts..                 :)

Cable under pressure into the new week

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 11:42 PM PST

Overnight lows of 1.5838 fell just short of the  Nov 15 lows of 1.5828 and the  bounce so far has stalled into offers ahead of 1.5880.  Friday’s close below the 200 day MA  currently at 1.5908 is a bearish signal and a successive close below may alert the bears  towards a move to 1.5750/70 levels seen in July/Aug last year.

Offers now remain in place from 1.5880 up to 1.5910 with some possible buy stops above.  Bids/tech support now lie down at 1.5825/40 with talk of sell stops down through 1.5820.

Cable’s currently  trading around 1.5874

Morgan Stanley has a limit order to buy USD/JPY at 86.50

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 11:24 PM PST

UK credit downgrade is coming; to fall into triple-dip recession – NAB

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 11:14 PM PST

Whoa, whoa and thrice whoa :(

What’s to become of us………

German Dec PPI -0.3% m/m, +1.5% y/y

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 11:08 PM PST

From -0.1% m/m and +1.4% in November

Reuters poll of analysts were looking for an unchanged reading m/m and +1.7% y/y

 

USD/JPY sharply off Asian highs

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 11:06 PM PST

The move’s largely seen as a correction ahead of the conclusion of the BOJ meeting which is expected to result in further asset purchases.

Japanese exporters were among the sellers from the Asian highs of 90.25, but the underlying tone remains positive for the pair, with bids found now on approach to 89.40, some sell stops below through 89.20,ahead of bids  88.90/10 and tech support at the tenkan line (88.54).

Offers lie from 90.00 up to 90.25 with buy stops through 90.30. Talk of barrier interest above at 90.50 and the top leg of a DNT  up at 90.75.

USD’s presently trading around 89.59

AUD/USD remaining rangebound for now…

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:43 PM PST

Decent bids reportedly under 1.0500 are so far supporting the AUD/USD which saw some recent pressure from AUD/JPY sales ahead of the conclusion of the 2 day BOJ meeting and tomorrow’s Australian CPI release, with analysts expecting a reading of  around 2.4% for Q4  after a 2.0% reading in Q3.

EUR/AUD has also helping shore up the AUD/USD, having failed to break  and hold above 1.2800 or attack the  1.2824 high seen last October.

Order wise AUD/USD bids lie in the 1.0490/00 zone ahead of daily cloud top (1.0475)  kijun line (1.0472) and 55 day MA at 1.0460. Initial offers are seen  from 1.0520/30  and 1.0550/60 with the tenkan line in between at 1.0542. The 1.0600 barrier remains above  with large offers expected in front.

AUD’s trading around 1.0515

EUR/USD steady in Asia

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:38 PM PST

EUR/USD presently sits at 1.3323, about 8 pips firmer than the 1.3315 North American close I jotted down Friday.

Slow EUR/USD trade in Asia and we could be in for similar during the European morning, given little interesting euro zone economic data to be released and given proximity of the Martin Luther King Day holiday in the US.

We look to be in need of a big tape bomb or two….

Buy orders clustered 1.3300/05 and more down around 1.3280.  Sell orders clustered 1.3240/60, buy stops above there (I’d think relatively light)  before more sell orders clustered 1.3395/05. Buy stops gathering up at 1.3405/10.

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:26 PM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1. 3200, 1.3275, 1.3300, 1.3350

USD/JPY: 88.00, 89.00, 89.25, 89.50, 89.75, 90.00, 90.50

GBP/USD: 1.5900, 1.5950

AUD/USD: 1.0450, 1.0490, 1.0525, 1.0550, 1.0575

European stocks seen opening firmer

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:22 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE opening up as much as +0.5%, DAX and CAC 40 up as much as +0.3%.

Japan’s trade Min Motegi: Beating deflation and a strong yen is government priority

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:13 PM PST

(His words but somewhat confusing….  he means defeating the yen strength…)

  • Recent weakening of the yen has brightened outlook somewhat for Japan
  • Wording of BOJ’s  inflation ‘goal’ is strange
  • Other countries use inflation ‘target’

Bloomberg reporting

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closes down 1.52%

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:05 PM PST

At  10747.74

The larger TOPIX index closed down  0.69% at 905.16

Auto, metal and financial shares leading the move lower with the market seen moving lower on the back of some profit taking ahead of the conclusion of the BOJ’s policy meeting

Illegal immigrants paying £1,500 to be smuggled OUT of Britain

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 10:01 PM PST

Watch out for a poor UK Q4 GDP this Friday…

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 09:51 PM PST

Roger Bootle feels that the economy may pull out a surprise fall of 0.5% in GDP for the last quarter of 2012 largely as an adjustment to  Q3, which may also spark claims of a a ‘triple-dip’ recession

His full thoughts on the matter here….

UK Telegraph

Revolutionary Japan is suddenly the centre of world affairs

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 09:50 PM PST

German FinMin Schaeuble: Not ready to decide over aid for Cyprus

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 09:35 PM PST

He’s not clear if Cyprus problems are a threat to the Eurozone

  • Cypriot banking sector  is ‘noticeably oversized’
  • Has big confidence in France

Comments made in an interview with Sueddeutsche Zeitung

(Bloomberg reporting)

EU doubts put pound’s ‘safe haven’ status at risk, traders warn

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 09:31 PM PST

A UBS analyst’s view on the pound…

“The pound ended up with a safe-haven status last year given Europe’s problems were bigger than the UK’s,” said Shahab Jalinoos, an analyst at UBS, one of three largest currency trading banks in the world. “What’s different this year, is that just as Europe’s political risk is starting to fade, the UK’s is rising.”

After two years in which trading in the foreign-exchange markets were dominated by the potential break-up of European Monetary Union, Mr Jalinoos said that traders and investors have begun 2013 looking for new trends to bet on.

(The BOE and government might well welcome weaker pound,  to help exports but not if uncertainty triggers a massive sell off in UK government bonds)

Full story here …

Ideas corner- Jan 21st 2012

Posted: 20 Jan 2013 09:14 PM PST

Good morning all, from Europe

Please post any bright ideas or comments you’d like to share with your fellow readers here…


at 6:05 PM

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