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Tuesday, January 22, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

ZEW German economic sentiment index for January 31.5

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 02:01 AM PST

Way stronger than Reuters’ median forecast of 12.0. Up huge from Decembers’ 6.9.

EUR/USD extends recovery, presently back at 1.3325.

ECB’s Asmussen: Disorderly developments in Cyprus could undermine recent (2012) progress made in stabilizing the Eurozone

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:57 AM PST

  • Cyprus may be small but could impact on a still fragile Eurozone
  • Cyprus could also impact on Greece through banking channels
  • Final decision on Cypriot bailout possible at end of March, but needs to include close monitoring and implementation of anti money laundering and tax transparency

Reuters reporting

Japan PM Abe: Strongly hopes BOJ takes bold monetary easing to achieve 2% inflation as soon as possible

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:57 AM PST

  • Will debate monetary policy once every quarter at govt’s top economic council, to hold BOJ accountable for its policy goals
  • First debate will be held  at government’s next economic council meeting
  • Japan’s government panel says it’s important to halve primary budget deficit by  financial year 2015 and achieve a surplus by FY 2020
  • Gov’t panel should limit bond issuance as much as possible for this coming financial year

EUR/USD steadies as BUBA quoshes Weidmann rumour; German ZEW survey awaited

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:50 AM PST

We’re back over 1.3300, presently at 1.3305.

Up at 10:00 GMT we have German ZEW survey results for January.

Forecasts seem to be calling for economic sentiment to improve to around 12.0 from previous 6.9.

UK Dec PSNB ex fin sector intervention £ 15.419 bln from £14.848 bln a year earlier

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:33 AM PST

worse than expected  £15.2 bln

Dec PSNB £13.208 bln  ( exp £13.0 bln) from £ 12.626 bln  a year earlier

Dec PSNCR £1.299 bln  (exp £5.9 bln) from £7.503 bln a year ago

Cable a touch weaker by a few pips  on the numbers,  down around 1.5820

EUR/GBP slapped sharply lower….

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:26 AM PST

To lows of 0.8393 in recent dealings after nudging 0.8440 , before news of European banking problems  hit the wires along with spurious rumours of Weidmann’s resignation.

EUR/USD’s collapse to 1.3267 led by a sharp fall in the DAX/FTSEMIB  pushing the pair lower, but the cross now finding some dip buyers and returning to 0.8400 as rumours on twitter  that Weidmann’s resignation is ‘utter garbage’  also abound..

 

Bundesbank says rumour of Weidmann resignation “utter garbage”

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:24 AM PST

Getting this off twitter, not wire services.

EUR/USD back up at 1.3295 from session low 1.3267 in chaotic trade.

EUR/USD seeing accelerated losses

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 01:07 AM PST

Seem to be some European banking problems.

DAX off whopping -1.4%.  Talk of German bank giving profit warning.

Could be Deutsche which is off  over 3%.

Elsewhere,  Italian Banca Monti dei Paschi shares have been suspended.  There’s been a press report about a loss linked to a derivative contract.

ALSO RUMOUR ECB’s WEIDMANN HAS RESIGNED!!!  That old favourite.

Cable slips back as EUR/GBP extends gains

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 12:28 AM PST

Running down towards the bid zone from 1.5825 down to 1.5800 ( barrier). Sells stops are reported on a break of 1.5790 ahead of more support  down at 1.5770 and 1.5750.

EUR/GBP just off day /year highs of 0.84405 with first tech res above now seen at the  Feb 29 2012 highs of 0.8468.

Cable trades around 1.5822

EUR/GBP extends rally

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 12:22 AM PST

Up at .8432 from the .8415 which greeted me.

Is Billy boy out there?  Buying it till ya puke was obviously a good move ;)

Mumblings of barrier option interest at .8450 and the .8500.

 

EUR/USD rally slows as familiar name sells

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 12:00 AM PST

Yes, the good old BIS has turned up on the offer. Sounds like circa 1.3365, no real confirmation of level/s.

We sit at 1.3360.

I’m losing the will to live with this EUR/USD.

We could remain within a 1.3000-1.3500 range for the remainder of 2013 at this rate :(

Give me a bloody tape bomb, and make it a BIG one!!!

EUR/USD extends rally

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 11:46 PM PST

Aforementioned stops through 1.3360 taken out and we made it all the way to 1.3371 (whoopee), presently back at 1.3360.  It’s very stop-start I have to say.  US investment bank was notable buyer in the mni rally apparently.

Talk of sell orders clustered around 1.3380 and more up at 1.3395/05.

BOJ’s Shirakawa: Considerable effort required to meet 2% inflation target

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 11:45 PM PST

He wants to achieve the target ASAP  but various institutions must work together to achieve it

  • Kiuchi and Sato says they need to see  a growth strategy first and that the 2% target is too high
  • BOJ independence must be preserved
  • Need to monitor currency developments and its impact on the economy
  • Cutting excess reserve rates cut lower banks profits
  • Abnormal for BOJ to ease 4 times in 5 months
  • Reserve rates and current key rate are the best mix
  • BOJ  maintains desirability to see inflation at 2%
  • Becoming more likely that Japanese economy will recover in 2013.
Bloomberg reporting

 

Britain becomes Germany’s biggest trade partner as Berlin-London pact deepens

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 11:33 PM PST

Cable off the floor… for now

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 11:11 PM PST

The much talked about support ahead of 1.5800 continues to thwart the sterling uber-bears with GBP/USD tumbling yesterday to lows of 1.5806 in NY. The 1.5825 level holds the 50% fibonacci retracement of the 1.5269-1.6381 move did provide some initial support yesterday and  may well do so again today as the pair has since climbed back in Asia and early Europe to  a recent high of 1.5864.

Up above, moving averages come into play with the nearest being the 55 week MA at 1.5875 ahead of the 200 day MA at 1.5908.

Downside, bids come into play from 1.5820 down to 1.5800 with likely sell stops just below. Further support now seen towards 1.5770 and 1.5750.

Market events are likely to dictate play, but a resurgent EUR/GBP also likely to keep some focus on the downside ahead of PM Cameron’s EU speech tomorrow morning and the much discussed UK GDP release on Friday, which as mentioned yesterday, may well disappoint in Q4.

Cable currently trades around 1,5860 with EUR/GBP at  a year’s high of 0.8429

Labour lead over Tories shrinks to five points, according to Guardian/ICM poll

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 11:08 PM PST

Today’s option expiries

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 10:51 PM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1. 3200, 1.32175, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3400

USD/JPY: 88.50, 88.75, 88.80, 89.00, 90.00

EUR/JPY: 120.00

EUR/CHF: 1.2300, 1.2500, 1.2515, 1.2550

AUD/USD: 1.0525

AUD/NZD: 1.2570, 1.2750

EUR/USD trades touch firmer in Asia

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 10:40 PM PST

But it ain’t exactly exciting stuff. Rangey, yes indeedy!!

Buy orders seen clustered 1.3280/90, sell stops below. Topside, buy stops through 1.3360 or 1.3365 (take your pick, what’s 5 pips between friends) I doubt they’re very large anyways.  Sell orders then clustered 1.3395/05 (remember the decent soveregn sell interest up at 1.3395/00 the other day. More substantial buy stops gathering up at 1.3405/10.

Main data is release at 10:00 GMT of German ZEW survey for January. Economic sentiment is expected to have improved to 12.0 from previous 6.9.

AUD/USD back in favour…

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 10:39 PM PST

Back up in the mid 1.0550′s  this morning initially on the  back of  buying pre-BOJ of AUD/JPY, but holding up well through the USD/JPY sell off after the announcement having tripped buy stops earlier through 1.0530.

Offers now lie above from 1.0560 and are layered up to the well documented 1.0600 barrier. There are buy stops above there ahead of tech res at 1.0625 (Sept 14 high) and more touted up through 1.0630. Bids now lie from 1.0520 down to 1.0500 with likely sell stops building through 1.0490. Tech support below at 1.0475 (daily cloud top) and 55 day MA at 1.0462.

AUD/JPY has offers  at 94.90/00, Bids 93.70/80 with possible sell stops below through 93.60 ( tenkan line 93.63)

Japan EconMin Amari: BOJ taking big step forward towards beating deflation

Posted: 21 Jan 2013 10:26 PM PST

  • BOJ decision on unlimited easing is epoch-making


at 6:05 PM

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