Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

EUR/USD poll!!
Swiss ZEW improves to -6.9 in January from -15.5 in December
EUR/USD ticks higher……
Minutes of last BOE/MPC meeting
UK jobless claims for December -12,100
Italian Dec 2012 non-EU trade balance Eur 3.322bln
Spain Q4 GDP shrinks -0.6% from Q3
Even more Cameron…I’m in favour of a referendum on EU membership
More Cameron…. Promises to hold referendum on EU by 2017
UK PM Cameron: EU must change to bring prosperity, keep support
IIF’s Dallara: Market sentiment has improved tremendously
French Fin Min Moscovici: France’s tax burden needs to be reduced
French January Mfg industry morale index falls to 86
Let’s not bother with EUR/USD coverage today…..
Cameron – I’ll hold an in-out vote on Europe
USD/JPY wobbling into Europe..
European stocks to open moderately higher
AUD/USD opens lower into Europe
Today’s option expiries
Japan’s Nikkei 225 closes down 2.08%

EUR/USD poll!!

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 02:05 AM PST

Let’s see how many euro bulls are out there

Sit at 1.3340.

What’ll we see first, 1.3250 or 1.3450.

There, we’ll give the bears a 10 pip headstart……

Reason/s would be cool, but not obligatory.

Swiss ZEW improves to -6.9 in January from -15.5 in December

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 02:00 AM PST

Swiss investor confidence now showing some signs of stabilizing, Economic situation index rose to 16 from 6.6

EUR/USD ticks higher……

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 01:47 AM PST

Some Asian sovereign buying helped kickstart this latest rallyette.

We’re up at 1.3340,

Sell orders seen clustered 1.3350/60 and again at 1.3390/00. I guess those buy stops must still be gathered up at 1.3405/10.

Minutes of last BOE/MPC meeting

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 01:31 AM PST

MPC voted 8-1 in favour of keeping QE at £375 bln, with BOE’s Miles voting for a rise to £400 bln
Unanimous over keep rates unchanged

BOE- recent monthly developments strengthened some members view that no more Qe was needed, more Qe could have ‘considerablke scope’ to lower debt yields , but impact on demand remains uncertain

Miles saw case for more QE due to economic slack and risk of damage from weak growth
US fiscal deal and signs of pick up in global growth are positive but hard to see underlying growth in the UK
Sterling’s real exchange level may be higher than needed to rebalance the UK economy

UK jobless claims for December -12,100

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 01:30 AM PST

Better than Reuters’ median forecast of flat.

Claimant count rate unchanged at 4.8%, as expected.

Ilo jobless -37,000 in 3 months to November, rate 7.7% which is slightly better than Reuters’ median forecast of 7.8%.

Cable has extended its rally on numbers, presently at 1.5867.

Notable Middle Eastern buying earlier helped kickstart this latest recovery.

Italian Dec 2012 non-EU trade balance Eur 3.322bln

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 01:06 AM PST

Up from Nov’s Eur 1.855 bln, and Eur 2.169 bln a year ago

Spain Q4 GDP shrinks -0.6% from Q3

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 01:02 AM PST

Bank of Spain says.

Domestic demand further contracted in Q4
Weak euro economy weighed on exports
2012 GDP fell -1.3%

EUR/USD sits at 1.3290, 10 pips lower than when I dragged my sorry arse out of bed.

Buy orders clustered down at 1.3240/60, sell stops below there.

Boring, boring EUR/USD!!!

Even more Cameron…I’m in favour of a referendum on EU membership

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:47 AM PST

…But not whilst EU is in a state of flux, so a decision now wouldn’t be the right way forward

The EU that emerges from the current crisis will be a very different one
UK will have the option to choose between staying or leaving
Next conservative manoifesto will ask for a mandate for EU plans
UK debate on the issue will require ‘cool heads’ and must find where national interest lies
UK is more powerful globally as a member of the EU
Leaving the EU would be a one-way ticket, no return
EU partners must ‘work with us’ on this
EU would be ‘greatly diminished’ if there was UK exit
Won’t rest until EU debate is won

And that at last is it……….

Anyone still awake out there?

More Cameron…. Promises to hold referendum on EU by 2017

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:28 AM PST

Calls for a leaner, less bureaucratic EU
Small firms should be exempt from further EU directives
Costly institutions are hard to justify
2nd principle of the EU must be flexibility
Not all countries want the same level of integration, diversity should be welcomed
‘Let’s stop all this talk of a 2 speed Europe’
Flexibility will unite EU members more closely
believes in Flexible union of free EU states
Need to cooperate on security issues and energy supply
New countries should be welcomed into the EU
Need for a bigger role for EU national parliaments, which are a real source of legitimacy
UK public’s disillusion with the EU is at an all time high
British public resents interference in national life, asking for a return to common market
People have never been given a say in the matter
Democratic consent for the EU is ‘wafer-thin’

UK PM Cameron: EU must change to bring prosperity, keep support

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:18 AM PST

EU is means to an end, not end in itself
UK will always remain a European power
I never want to pull up the drawbridge, or retreat
I’m not an isolationist and have a positive vision of EU’s future
Euro crisis is driving fundamental changes
There’s a competitive crisis in Europe
Democratic deficit is felt acutely in Britain
Do not want the UK to drift towards an EU exit
Efforts to fix EU crisis are having profound implications, dealing with its flaws is taking too long
Problems lie with restrictive labour markets and excessive regulation
Seems EU isn’t acting for its citizens
Fundamental, far-reaching changes are required
Completing single market must bethe driving mission

IIF’s Dallara: Market sentiment has improved tremendously

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:09 AM PST

Need to see real investment in the real economy
Greece could return to the market in 2014/2015
Continued inaction over Cyprus poses risks, Russia needs to be part of the solution
Spain may avoid a bailout, growth’s needed in Spain (NSS)
Should moderate pace of fiscal consolidation
If UK left the EU , we’d all be losers
UK must clarify it’s position with Europe
UK can recalibrate regulatory excess from the past

French Fin Min Moscovici: France’s tax burden needs to be reduced

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 12:01 AM PST

Wants taxes to stop rising next year
France maintains 0.8% growth for 2013
Transaction tax should be used for growth projects

French January Mfg industry morale index falls to 86

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 11:46 PM PST

Below forecasts of 90, and down from 89 in December

Let’s not bother with EUR/USD coverage today…..

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 11:38 PM PST

It’s just TOOOOOOO boring pumpkins

Cameron – I’ll hold an in-out vote on Europe

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 11:18 PM PST

David Cameron will this morning offer the British public the first “in-out referendum” on membership of the European Union in more than 40 years.

Historic moment innit….

Sterling looks kinda………………………..vulnerable.

Cable sits at 1.5813, protection of 1.5800 barrier option lending some tenuous support so far. But for how long peeps?

Cameron speech due 08:00 GMT

Later in the morning at 09:30 GMT we have release of the latest Bank of England minutes and the December jobs report.

December jobless claims expected flat, claimant count rate unchanged at 4.8%. Ilo unemployment rate for 3 months to November expected unchanged at 7.8%.

USD/JPY wobbling into Europe..

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 11:10 PM PST

Cross sales haven’t helped the pair in Asia, with a softer EUR/USD and AUD/JPY, but bids in the USD down at 88.00/10 are so far soaking up the supply from a major Japanese name. More lie down at 87.80/90 (87.79 Jan16 low) with some sell stops touted on a break of the level.

On the topside offers remain up at 88.70/80 ahead of tech resistance 89.00/10 ( 89.02 tenkan line).

Last night’s close below the tenkan line was a s/term bearish signal and a further close today could target rising trend line support around 86.95 ( from Mid Nov lows)

EUR/JPY’s also under pressure approaching sell stops through 117.00 (rising trend line support from Dec 10 low) but support also seen below at 116.50/60 with further sell stops on a break.

USD trades around 88.13 after posting a recent low of 88.06 with the cross at 117.16 (day’s low 117.05)

European stocks to open moderately higher

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 10:56 PM PST

Financial bookies expect FTSE and CAC 40 to open up as much as +0.4%, DAX up as much as +0.3%.

AUD/USD opens lower into Europe

Posted: 22 Jan 2013 10:39 PM PST

The o/n CPI release came in below expectations and looks likely to have put a halt on the RBA cutting rates in the short term, but the AUD has hardly collapsed and remains within recent parameters.

EUR/AUD’s failure again to break up and consolidate above the 1.2750/1.2800 is also helping support the AUD/USD, despite some reportedcross buying from leveraged names in the Asian session.

AUD/JPY sales in Asia have weighed on the AUD/USD, with the cross now sinking below tenkan line support at 93.72. Technical support/bids are now seen at 92.40/50 (16/17 Jan lows)

AUD/USD bids now rest in the 1.0525/35 region(talk of sovereign demand) ahead of larger down at 1.0500/10. Sell stops lurk just below ahead of technical support at the daily cloud top (1.0479) , Kijun line ( 1.0472) and 55 day MA (1.0465). Offers remain from 1.0570/80 up to a barrier at 1.0600. Tech res lies above at 1.0620/25 with buy stops above

AUD’s presently trading around 1.0540