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Thursday, January 24, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

UK PM Cameron: Britain isn’t turning its back on Europe

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:48 AM PST

  • Need a new EU settlement for Europe not just the UK
  • Time to make Europe a growth engine
  • Europe’s being ‘out-competed’ and ‘out-invested’
  • Need more free trade and fairer tax systems
  • Trade is being choked by too much red tape,. barriers
  • UK will use G8 to push for more openness on trade
  • Agreeing EU trade deals could put 2% on GDP, talks are already beginning
  • Pledges a clampdown on aggressive tax avoidance, but requires working together to do so
  • Deals on information exchange should be explored
  • Businesses must pay their fair share of tax; public have had enough of corporate tax avoidance

Speaking at the WEF in Davos

SNB’s Danthine: Asked about moving swiss franc cap to 1.25/euro, says cap policy is not designed for making small adjustments

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:38 AM PST

Comments made in newspaper article

There had been media talk recently that the Swiss government was pressuring the SNB to move to a 1.2500 peg.  Doesn’t seem as though the bank has any interest in any of that old toffee.

  • Welcomes easing of pressure on swiss franc (bet he does….ker-ching)
  • Swiss property market is still too strong and not sustainable, further measures may be needed
  • Swiss deflation is expected to continue for several months

EUR/CHF marginally firmer on the day, up at 1.2400 from the 1.2380 which greeted me having been up as high as 1.2413 at one stage.  UK clearer notable buyer this morning apparently.

UK BBA Dec mortgage approvals 33,636 from 33,551 in Nov

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:32 AM PST

down 4% on a y/y basis

Dec net mortgage lending increased to £580 mln  from £217 mln in Nov

Option expiries (updated)

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:30 AM PST

For the 1000 NY/1500 GMT cut:

EUR/USD: 1. 3250, 1.3300, 1.3350, 1.3385, 1.3400

USD/JPY: 88.00, 88.50, 89.00(L), 90.00, 91.00(L)

GBP/USD:  1.5900, 1.6025

AUD/USD: 1.0500, 1.0550, 1.0570, 1.0590

AUD/NZD: 1.2580

NZD/USD: 0.8400

USD/CHF: 0.9225, 0.9340

Gerry & Pete’s guide to tomorrows UK Q4 GDP

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 01:06 AM PST

We’ve put our heads together in an attempt to come up with likely scenarios to tomorrows UK Q4 GDP release.

Any sort of positive number:   Cable screams higher such is the negativity surrounding this number

Flat to -0.2%:   Cable mildly firmer

-0.3%:  Cable little changed  (we think this is the number discounted in current cable levels)

-0.3% to -0.5%:   Sell-off, not huge

-0.5% and above:  Decent sell-off

It’s cable, so this is far from an exact science. But them’s our thoughts.

Be candid, what are your thoughts on our thoughts?

Any abuse will be simply deleted and will never see the light of day ;)

PS:  I’ve got tomorrow off, so if the scenarios turn out to be wonky I won’t be around to take the flack. Just direct it all at poor old Pete :)

 

Eurozone flash Jan Mfg PMI rises to 47.5

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:58 AM PST

From 46.1 in Dec and vs expectations of 46.5- 10 mth high

Jan services PMI  rises to 48.3 (exp 48.0)from 47.8 in Dec- 10 mth high

Jan composite PMI rises to 48.2 (exp 47.5) from 47.2 in Dec

EUR’s maintaining its bid tone after the strong German PMI, around 1.3322

Japan’s PM Abe: Wants BOJ to take responsibility for the fight against deflation

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:52 AM PST

  • Expects bold monetary easing from the BOJ, and wants the 2% inflation target achieved ASAP

German PMI data very nice surprise, EUR/USD rallies back

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:32 AM PST

EUR/USD back up at 1.3325 after the better than expected German PMI data.

Houston we’re happy to report we’re happily back ensconsed in range.

The moral of the story here is……….don’t vote in a bloody socialist government ;)

 

German Jan Flash Mfg PMI rises sharply to 48.8

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:29 AM PST

from 46.0 in December, expectations were for 46.8, an 11 mth high

Jan Services PMI   up to 55.3 from 52.0 in December (19 mth high)

Jan composite flash PMI jumps to 12 mth high of 53.6 from 50.3 in Dec

EUR/USD jumping 30 pips on the strong reading to around 1.3333

Euro gets nasty jolt from surprisingly poor French PMI data

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:16 AM PST

Well that French PMI data was a nasty shock. Market was looking for improvement and it got the exact opposite. Nasty numbers.

EUR/USD back below 1.3300 to session low 1.3286, presently 1.3295.

Although nasty, is this data alone enough to break us out of well-defined 1.3250-1.3400 range?  My best guess would be NO.

German PMI data up at 08:30 GMT and should be interesting.

Forecasts:  German manufacturing PMI for January expected 46.8 from previous 46.0,  services PMI expected unchanged 52.0.

Ireland’s PM Kenny: Irish economy is still in a fragile state…

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:12 AM PST

..But the government has stabilized the situation.

Enda hopes for  a promissory note deal by the end of March

Bloomberg reporting

Spain Q4 unemployment rate 26.02%

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:08 AM PST

Up from 25% in Q3 and a touch firmer than Reuters’ median forecast of 26%.

Wow 26.02%, boggles the mind……

French Jan Composite PMI falls to 42.7

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 12:02 AM PST

From a final December reading of  44.6.  Lowest reading since March 2009

Jan services PMI falls to 43.6 from a Dec final reading of 44.6 and expectations of 45.6

Jan Mfg PMI falls to 42.9 from 44.6 and forecast of 45.1

IMF’s Blanchard: Time for the UK to consider Plan B

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:29 PM PST

(Quite like some of his music…. and he was good in the ‘Sweeney’ )

But seriously…  the IMF’s economist told the BBC that George Osborne should use the March budget to tone down his austerity program as UK has been hit by it more than most wealthy nations, and noted that the global economy “Wasn’t out of the woods yet”‘

He’s largely reiterating comments he made last year saying ”We said that if things look bad at the beginning of 2013 – which they do – then there should be a reassessment of fiscal policy,”

 

AUD/USD looking for direction again

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:15 PM PST

Off early Asian session highs of 1.0555, but remains sandwiched between a wider 1.0470-1.0580 range with bids starting from 1.0510 and layered down. Offers are currently capping at 1.0570/80, and larger above in protection of the 1.0600 barrier

Hard to pick  a direction just now, unless EUR/AUD breaks up through 1.2807 (Dec 27 high)  and/or AUD/USD slips back through the 55 day MA at 1.0467.  Option expiries today may add some attraction with strikes at 1.0500, 1.0550 and 1.0570.

AUD/USD trades around 1.0527

China Foreign Ministry calls for calm and restraint after North Korea nuclear test plan

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:15 PM PST

DON’T PANIC!!!

  • Hopes relevant party does not take any steps to raise tensions

GBP/USD poll

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST

Promised Nihag one yesterday and I’m a man of my word.

Cable at a very very interesting juncture (well I bloody well think so)

Will we see an extention of the recent sell-off or will the 1.58 area prove a bridge to far for the cable bears?

We sit at 1.5840.

What’ll we see first, 1.5740 or 1.5940?

Why LTRO repayments could trigger a push higher in EUR/USD above 1.35? – Deutsche Bank

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:56 PM PST

I think we can certainly put the Big German in the bullish camp along with Perfect Pete (what a dream team)

I don’t give a monkeys which direction it goes in, as long as it goes somewhere………………….and soon!!

USD/JPY and crosses spurred on by Nishimura…

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:55 PM PST

…And the Nikkei 225, as the pair earlier bounced on the Deputy economy ministers comments that 100.00 wouldn’t be a problem for the Japanese authorities.

Buy stops were triggered on the way through 89.30  and the move in Asia has taken the USD back above the daily tenkan line (89.02) to recent highs of 89.46, with the cross (EUR/JPY) also  bouncing back through its tenkan line  at 118.60 through buy stops above 119.00 to 119.25. Offers are now seen  up at 89.80/00 and 119.30/40

AUD/JPY ‘s also up on the comments despite market pricing in a 40% chance of  a possible RBA cut next month, and again up through the tenkan line at 93.72. The pair is currently  stalling into offers just above 94.00 (high 94.09) ahead of  hourly tech resistance towards 94.30.

EUR/USD jogging up and down on the spot

Posted: 23 Jan 2013 10:43 PM PST

EUR/USD sits at 1.3320, effectively where it closed out Wednesday in North America, whoopee.

Buy orders clustered down at 1.3250/70, sell stops through 1.3250 or 1.3240 depending on who you speak to.  Sell orders clustered 1.3350/60 (capped yesterdays rally) buy stops through 1.3365 (they gotta be pretty light surely.)   More sell orders clustered 1.3390/00. Buy stops gathering up at 1.3405/10.

Got some PMI data out this morning.  I can hardly wait, I’m filled with such anticipation. Wake me up when it’s time to go home………..

 


at 6:05 PM

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