InstaForex

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Friday, January 25, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

More Draghi: Eurozone deposit guarantee still ‘some way out’

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 02:01 AM PST

  • Fiscal consolidation is ‘unavoidable’, contractionary
  • Need to see how to mitigate effects of consolidation, hesitation is very costly
  • Front loading fiscal consolidation has its benefits
  • Euro economy has performed better than any last 10 years ( could have fooled me!)
  • Sharing sovereignty in Euro area is the way forward ( we must all become Italians)

USD/JPY DNT binned….

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 01:55 AM PST

The much touted 90.75 barrier which was the top leg of a DNT  has been taken out  and Mr. Market ‘s now targeting the next one up at 91.00. (day’s high 90.92 EBS)

Very large offers apparently lie in wait from 90.85 ahead of it ( thanks  Billy) with buy stops in place on a break of the barrier

ECB’s Draghi: 2012 was interesting ‘ to say the least’

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 01:42 AM PST

  • 2012 was the year of the Euro relaunch
  • LTRO’s help avoid a credit crunch
  • OMT has been very helpful in removing risk to the euro
  • Still need to see further improvements in the economy
  • Too soon to declare satisfaction, the Jury’s still out
  • Most important objective  for this year is to overcome fragmentation in financial markets
  • Markets have  a new sense of relative tranquility
  • Sees economic recovery later this year, curerently stabilizing at a very low level
  • Inflation expectations are solidly anchored
  • 2013 is the time to put plans into action
  • ECB policy accomodation will help, OMT will remain in place as long as needed

Bloomberg/Reuters  reporting

EUR/GBP leaves the 0.8500 barrier in tatters

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 01:40 AM PST

Bloody Gerry was right again, but i always said the cross was a piece of   ‘you know what’

Poor UK GDP data compounded the move as the cross reaches towards 0.8530 where more offers lie up to 0.8550 (possible barrier).

Bids now lie down towards  0.8480 with more  towards Asian session lows of 0.8463

Cross now trades around 0.8518 after a high of 0.8529

 

 

 

 

UK Q4 GBP -0.3% m/m

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 01:30 AM PST

From Q3 unchanged  at +0.9%. Expectations  were originally  for -0.1/-0.2%  at the beginning of the week.

Unchanged on the y/y (Reuters calling for  +0.2%)

 

Cable crunched  to lows of 1.5755 from 1.5805 on the release.

IFO economist Wohlrabe: Sees quarterly economic growth of 0.2% in Q1, recession looking unlikely

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 01:17 AM PST

  • Capacity utilisation of German industry is rising along with output
  • Exporters are optimistic, do not fear a currency war, but could be a problem if one develops

EUR/USD’s now plugging fresh highs  of 1.3442 after the IFO release. Barrier looms at 1.3450 and another behind at 1.3500

German January IFO business climate indicator 104.2

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 01:02 AM PST

From 102.4 in December and above  expectations of 103.00

Expectations index 100.5 , above forecasts for 99.0 and a revised Dec reading of 98.0

Guess it was expected , EUR/USD holding up nicely around 1.3425

Bring on the UK GDP……

EUR/USD extends rally

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:53 AM PST

Top fresh highs  of  1.3432 ahead of the German IFO release in  a few mins, but some decent offers are lying in wait ahead of a 1.3450 barrier.

EUR/JPY’s just breached a 121.50 barrier on the move to highs of  121.72(EBS)

Italy’s PM Monti: Risk that a strong euro could harm exports

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:38 AM PST

  •  A strong Deutsche Mark ( those were the days) didn’t stop Germany being a major export power,
  •  Italy’s competitiveness needs to be strengthened

Hmmm, 1.5800 again …

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:35 AM PST

Maybe the bears are losing their bottle ahead of the GDP then.  Must admit I wasn’t at all surprise the barrier went yesterday afternoon.It was obvious .. Gerry decreed it!

;)

Could be a wobbly few mins at 0930 GMT, but this short covering ahead of the release may well proved to cement support now towards 1.5750.

Cable’s just touched a high of 1.5810 and currently sits at 1.5800

Italy’s Monti on Monte: Bk of Italy identified problems at Monte Paschi

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:23 AM PST

  • Rates loans to MPS were in line with EU guidelines
  • Loan rates favour government, taxpayers… not the bank
  • Problems stemmed from ties to politics, ties with Democratic party part of the problem
  • Elections shouldn’t affect MPS loans
  • Has confidence in Bk of Italy

Bk of Italy Governor: Monti Paschi is under investigation

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:11 AM PST

  • No doubt that MPS is ‘stable’
  • Bk of Italy indicated the bank needed capital, but this issue had been known for some time.
  • It’s wrong to suggest a lack of supervision over MPS
  • There’s no complacency in the Italian banking system
  • Definition of bad loans is ‘severe’
  • We must be very vigilant, but have nothing to hide

The BOI head  Ignazio Visco was speaking to CNBC in Davos

Spanish PPI falls -0.1% m/m in December

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:05 AM PST

Up 2.7% y/y in December (from 2.8% last)

EUR/JPY riding high.

Posted: 25 Jan 2013 12:02 AM PST

The cross is currently running into some headwinds ahead of a 121.50 barrier ( Day/year’s high 121.48  on EBS) , but buy stops lurk just above  ahead of more offers up at 121.80/00.

Tech res above likely to be found at a fibonacci projection at 122.13 ( 161.8% of the 11.43-94.12 fall). Bids are  now seen down at 121.00/10 and tech supp at 120. 65/75._

EUR/JPY’s around 121.42

Cable holding up ahead of the GDP release

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 11:48 PM PST

1.5800 still looking a step too far just now (day’;s high 1.5792) with the cross (EUR/GBP) having a peek at 0.8500, but, non- the- less , trying to hold it’s ground before the numbers.  Offers are now in place at 1.5790/00 with some buy stops above through 1.5810 ahead of more offers 1.5840/50. Bids are now seen down at 1.5755/60 with  likely sell stops just below.

All will be revealed  at 0930 GMT …

EUR/AUD making a run for it…?

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 11:27 PM PST

The cross has just pushed through last October’s highs of 1.2824 to 1.2835, and if sustained, can target  1.2860/80 area highs of  June last year.

AUD/USD now obviously pressurized and  threatening to challenge rising trendline support around 1.0415/20 (also 100 day MA 1.0418) from  October lows. Ahead of that there are bids sitting down in the 1.0440/50 area with more from exporters down at 1.0400/10

AUD’s at 1.0453

EUR/USD stops triggered…

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 11:16 PM PST

Nothing like a dawn raid….

Stops taken out through  1.3405/10 has led to the pair etching a fresh high on the year at 1.3420 (EBS). Offers now being reported in the 1.3420/30  and 1.3450/60 zones ahead of  tech resistance  in the 1.3480/90 area.

 

 

EUR/USD nibbling at the Asian session highs

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST

All looking rather perky ahead of the German IFO in a couple of hours time with the pair  just edging a fresh daily high of 1.3384, the move fuelled by yesterday’s strong German PMI data.

There are offers running up into 1.3400 with talk of some buy stops through 1.3410 (Jan 14 high 1.3404) and  little above there until the tech res around 1.3486 highs of  Feb last year. Bids remain down at 1.3350/60 with sell stops below through 1.3340

EUR’s presently trading around 1.3380

EU’s Reding: UK will lose a lot if it leaves the EU

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:52 PM PST

For those who didn’t know.. (me included) she’s the Justice commissioner..

  • Need to adopt data protection rules to the modern era
  • 80% of Europeans don’t trust way data is handled, fines would serve as a deterrent
  • ‘Have to ‘put fist on the table’ to move women debate

Bloomberg reporting

China’s XI: China’s position over the Diaoyu island is clear and consistent

Posted: 24 Jan 2013 10:47 PM PST

How do you say that… eleven?               ;)

  • Japan must work with China to resolve island issue through dialogue
  • Japan should respect Chinese people’s feelings and  correctly handle  historical problems
  • China is committed to developing Chinese-Japanese  relations

Yep it’s good to talk rather than threaten or fight…


at 6:08 PM

0 comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to: Post Comments (Atom)