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Thursday, January 3, 2013

Your forexlive.com ENewsletter

Link to ForexLive

UK December construction PMI 48.7

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 01:31 AM PST

Weaker than Reuter’s median forecast of 49.5 and lowest read since last June.

US lawmakers must do more on debt levels: IMF

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 01:17 AM PST

The US government needs to do more to put its public finances back on a sustainable path with harming a fragile recovery in its economy according to the IMF.

Spokesman Gerry Rice said he welcomed the lawmakers action ”However, more remains to be done,”

“Specifically, a comprehensive plan that ensures both higher revenues and containment of entitlement spending over the medium term should be approved as soon as possible,” he said. Mr Rice said it is also crucial congress raise the debt ceiling “expeditiously and remove remaining uncertainties about the spending sequester and expiring appropriation bills”.

The deal, which raised tax rates for top earners and extended tax breaks for lower earners, avoided a scheduled jump in tax rates across the board. Still, it represented the largest tax increase for US taxpayers in the past two decades.

It also left undone a host of unresolved issues, notably, whether to raise the government’s borrowing limit to pay for planned government operations and what to do with abrupt spending cuts scheduled to take effect later this year. The stage is set for another round of bruising political fights over the next several months.

Moody’s also warned that the outcome of negotiations would determine the US’ credit rating adding that more deficit reduction measures were needed to avoid a downgrade.

For the full story , you’ll need to ‘Google’ the headline

(DJ newswires/The Australian)

EUR/USD extends recovery after better than expected German jobs data

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 01:08 AM PST

EUR/USD up at 1.3168.

Sell orders lined up at 1.3180/00.

Technically, we’ve the 100 hour moving average up at 1.3205 and 200 hour moving average at 1.3210. Talk of buy stops through 1.3210.

 

Eurozone Nov M3 annual growth 3.8%

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 01:02 AM PST

In line with Reuters poll

M3 Sept-Nov moving average rises to 3.4% from 3.1% in Aug-Oct

Nov annual Private sector growth loans  fell to -0.8% , below Reuters poll of -0.5%

 

German December sa jobless total +3k

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:56 AM PST

Betta than Reuter’s median forecast of +10k.

Jobless rate 6.9%, unchanged from November and as expected.

ECB’s Demetriades: Cyprus’ banks are the main reason for bailout request

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:41 AM PST

  • Final bank recapitalization figure is expected by Jan 15, following Pimco’s Cyprus bank review
  • Bailout will set conditions for future growth
  • Country faces challenges in 2013 ( NSS)
  • Reorganization of the banking sector is the only option
  • European partners need to be  convinced of Cyprus’s commitment

(Demetriades is also governor of the  Central Bank of Cyprus)

I need some help here; USD/JPY poll

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:39 AM PST

I just can’t work out which direction I think the next 50 pips is coming.

I’ve changed my mind half a dozen times since late yesterday.

So we’re at 87.15.

What’ll we see first, 86.65 or 87.65?

At this exact moment I’m with 86.65, Peter with 87.65.

Swiss PMI rises to 49.5 in December

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:31 AM PST

Above forecast and November’s reading of  of 48.5, but still showing the manufacturing sector in contraction

Italy PM Monti says bond spread has fallen due to a return of foreign, Italian investor faith in Italy, says hopes trend continues

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:25 AM PST

I bet he does……..

  • Stemming the rise of extreme political groups is a good thing as they have hindered reforms
  • Goal should be a gradual reduction of taxes, thanks to fight against tax evasion, spending control
  • Not considering introducing annual wealth tax levy, but says it is not a taboo topic

It’s all gone rather quiet……

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:19 AM PST

EUR/USD sits at 1.3149, a whooping 11 pips firmer than the 1.3138 which greeted me.

Asian sovereign buying is helping steady the rocky euro boat.  Some real money demand being seen as well.

Sell stops remain through 1.3120 before buy orders clustered 1.3090/00.

I’ve convinced myself that there are further sell stops below 1.3090, but I haven’t got any real confirmation of such. More a feeling in my water………

Swiss Dec KOF growth indicator falls to 1.28

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:07 AM PST

From 1.50  in November, a third consecutive month of decline. It was also below Bloomberg’s survey of analysts forecasts of 1.40

The KOF expects GDP to rise 1.2% this year accelerating to 2% in 2014 (December forecast)

EUR/CHF’s steady around 1.2102, with the USD around 0.9210

Spain December jobless down -1.2% m/m

Posted: 03 Jan 2013 12:02 AM PST

By some 59,094 people :(

Don’t get any betta, do it?

Total hits 4.8 mln.

Buy AUD/USD targeting 1.11; Buy USD/JPY targeting 90 – Citi

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 11:48 PM PST

First EUR/USD poll of the new year

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 11:28 PM PST

And I think it’s an extremely difficult one to be honest.

We sit at 1.3146.

What’ll we see first, 1.3000 or 1.3300?

Reason/s for choice would be cool, but not obligatory.

I’ll be interested to see if we can come up with any sort of consensus, although to be honest I doubt it.

Happy New Year Germany: Greece needs a new bailout

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 11:18 PM PST

Zerohedge.

I had been hoping for a rest from the Greek saga. Well at least a little one :(

Today’s orderboard

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 11:12 PM PST

EUR/USD:  Bids 1.3120/30 sell stops below ahead of further bids 1.3090/00 (kijun line 1.3092). Offers  1.3190/00, likely buy stops above ahead of offers 1.3230/50.

GBP/USD:  Offers/tech res 1.6245/55 and 1.6300/10. Bids 1.6200/10 and 1.6180/85 (kijun line 1.6184) ahead of 1.6130/35 (Dec 31 low 1.6134)

EUR/GBP:  Bids 0.8090/00, tech support 0.8060/65 (0.8062 Dec 12 low) and 0.8040/50 (daily cloud base 0.8044). Offers 0.8115/20, 0.8145/55, tech res tenkan line 0.8160, and offers 0.8180/00

USD/JPY:  Offers 87.30/50 (barrier talk 87.50), likely buy stops above ahead of larger offers from 87.80 up to an 88.00 barrier. Bids 87.00/10 (CTA's) more bids 86.90/00 ahead of  tech supp/bids 86.60/70.

EUR/JPY:  Bids/tech supp 114. 40/60 possible sell stops below ahead of tech supp 113.90/00. Offers 115.10/20, 115.55/65 and 115.90/00 (barrier 116.00)

AUD/JPY: Offers 91.90/00 (barrier talk 92.00), tech res above 92.40/45 (Sept 2008 high 92.44). Bids 91.10/20, tech support 90.80/90 and 89.90/00 (Asian low 89.91)

AUD/USD:  Offers  from 1.0500 up to 1.0525 (Funds , commercial RBA int) , tech res 1.0570/80. Bids 1.0450/60 (real money Sovereigns) tech support 1.0435/40 (prev fibo resistance). and  1.0380/00

UK Nationwide house prices -0.1% m/m, -1.0% y/y

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 11:02 PM PST

Touch weaker than Reuters’ median forecasts flat, -0.9% respectively.

European stocks seen opening relatively steady and a little mixed

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:57 PM PST

Financial bookies see FTSE up around +0.2%, DAX down around -0.1% and CAC 40 down around -0.4%.

EUR/USD extends sell-off in Asia

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:42 PM PST

We’ve been as low as 1.3124, presently at 1.3145.

Risk-on positions taken ahead of a US fiscal cliff deal have been unwound, with a few funds notable sellers.  A US investment bank has also been among notable sellers.

Talk of sell stops through 1.3120 before buy orders clustered 1.3090/00.

Sell orders clustered up at 1.3190/00.

Do I get the sense the single currency is about to enter freefall?  No, not really.

If my memory serves me well we saw rather choppy price action at the start of 2012, with market participants quick to book profits.  That’s more likely scenario in my book.

Portugal warns EU-IMF troika to back off on austerity demands

Posted: 02 Jan 2013 10:27 PM PST


at 6:05 PM

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