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- This is how I like my month-ends
- ECB’s Constancio: Legal framework for supervisor is robust
- Japan’s Aso: Cabinet has approved FY2012 stimulus package
- German January unemployment change -16k
- German unemployment due 08:55 GMT
- Deutsche Bank Has 2.17 Billion Euros Loss on Costs
- Guess the payrolls, win a prize…..
- Periphery bonds extend slide
- French December consumer spending unchanged
- El Pais says Rajoy took 250,000 euros from secret party funds
- Spanish 10 year bonds decline, yield rises 5 bps to 5.27%
- EUR/GBP under some early downside pressure
- Today’s orderboard
- Cable steady early
- German retail sales for December much weaker than expected
- Large expiries today likely to dominate attention in USD/JPY
- EUR/USD poll-time!!
- UK to switch to a nominal GDP targeting framework; GBP to fall further – Morgan Stanley
- Labor unions ratchet up pressure on Greek government
- European stocks seen opening moderatey lower
| This is how I like my month-ends Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:14 AM PST Quiet. Quick EUR/USD update; buy orders clustered 1.3530/40, talk of some sell stops below there (I’d hazard a guess they’re relatively light). Sell orders clustered up at 1.3580/00 ahead of 1.3600 barrier. Buy stops just above there. |
| ECB’s Constancio: Legal framework for supervisor is robust Posted: 31 Jan 2013 01:06 AM PST
Bloomberg headlines
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| Japan’s Aso: Cabinet has approved FY2012 stimulus package Posted: 31 Jan 2013 12:57 AM PST
Bloomberg reporting |
| German January unemployment change -16k Posted: 31 Jan 2013 12:55 AM PST Better than expected. Unemployment rate down to 6.8% from 6.9%, better than expected. |
| German unemployment due 08:55 GMT Posted: 31 Jan 2013 12:45 AM PST Expected to show an increase of around 8,000 Unemployment rate expected unchanged at 6.9%. |
| Deutsche Bank Has 2.17 Billion Euros Loss on Costs Posted: 31 Jan 2013 12:36 AM PST The biggest in 4 years and 8 times larger than the analysts’ forecast. Includes 1 nlb eurois for legal expenses and after job losses of 1,400 Full details here… Bloomberg |
| Guess the payrolls, win a prize….. Posted: 31 Jan 2013 12:18 AM PST If you want to give yourself the chance to win a fab Forexlive t-shirt, then hit this link |
| Posted: 31 Jan 2013 12:10 AM PST Spain 10 year govt bond yield now up 9 bps at 5.31% Italy 10 year govt bond yield now up 8 bps at 4.40% Euro seems to be taking this in its’ stride, presently at 1.3552. |
| French December consumer spending unchanged Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:47 PM PST Weaker than Reuters’ median forecast of +0.2%. Well, it’s all those taxes they gotta pay |
| El Pais says Rajoy took 250,000 euros from secret party funds Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:43 PM PST Rajoy spokeswoman says nothing irregular in payments Bloomberg headlines. What’s that all about then? UPDATE: Rajoy payments cited by El Pais were regular salary, official says |
| Spanish 10 year bonds decline, yield rises 5 bps to 5.27% Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:41 PM PST Italian 10 year bonds decline, yield rises 4 bps to 4.35%.
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| EUR/GBP under some early downside pressure Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:40 PM PST Talk in the street of some selling from funds behind the latest dip to 0.8562, but bids now surfacing ahead of further support down at 0.8525/35 (Tuesday low 0.8528). |
| Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:36 PM PST EUR/USD: Bids 1.3530/40 and 1.3490/10, sell stops through 1.3480. Offers 1.3580/00 (1.3600 barrier) ahead of offers 1.3615/25 (1.3625 barrier), buy stops above each barrier GBP/USD: Bids 1.5780/90 (tenkan line 1.5784), sell stops below, ahead of more bids 1.5755/65. Offers 1.5840/55 and tech res 1.5890/00 (200 day MA at 1.5896) EUR/GBP: Offers 0.8600/10 bids 0.8525/35 and 0.8500/10 USD/JPY: Bids 90.75 some sell stops just below ahead of bids 90.40/50. Sell stops through 90.30 ahead of further bids at 90. 00/10. Sell stops below. Offers from 91.10 layered up to a barrier at 91.50 , buy stops above ahead of offers into a 92.00 barrier. EUR/JPY: Bids 123.00/20, sell stops below ahead of bids 122.40/50 sell stops below through 122.35. Offers 123.60/70 and 123.90/00 ( barrier 134), buy stops above AUD/JPY: Bids 94.25/40, tech supp 94.05/15 (Mon low 94.10, tenkan line 94.09) sell stops through 94.00 .Offers 94.90/00, possible fresh buy stops just above ahead of tech res 95.40/50 (95.50 barrier?) buy stops above AUD/USD: Bids 1.0380/00 (exporters) ahead of more bids 1.0350/60 with sell stops through 1.0345 ahead of tech support 1.0310/15 (200 day MA 1.0311). Offers 1.0425/35 with larger up at 1.0460/70 and tech res at tenkan line 1.0479 |
| Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:25 PM PST Sits at 1.5818, exactly where it was when I arrived. I’ll be a little surprised if this tranquility lasts long. We have talk of general month end interest to sell dollars (buy cable) We have talk of ongoing fix demand for cable (as heard yesterday) related to dividend payments On the negative aide, we can reasonably expect some European central bank demand to buy the EUR/GBP cross. How I hate month end. Buy orders seen clustered 1.5780/90 sell stops below. Sell orders clustered 1.5840/55. Not sure where buy stops gathering to be honest. |
| German retail sales for December much weaker than expected Posted: 30 Jan 2013 11:00 PM PST Down -1.7% m/m, -4.7% y/y Demonstrably weaker than Reuters’ median forecasts of -0.1%, -1.6% respectively. EUR/USD extends early slide, presently at 1.3548. |
| Large expiries today likely to dominate attention in USD/JPY Posted: 30 Jan 2013 10:45 PM PST As mentioned in my expiry list there are large option strikes rolling off today at the 1000EST/1500GMT cut, notably $2.5 bln at 91.00 and 91.50, with $1 bln as well at 90.50 and $3 bln at 90.00. Whilst momentum is starting to wane a tad on the upside the downside is still well supported with bids from 90.75 down to 90.40 from importers, and some sell stops mixed in just below the Asian lows of 90.75 and again through 90.30. A barrier at 91.50 is at the moment limiting the topside with offers in front starting from 91.10 USD’s presently trading around 90.86 |
| Posted: 30 Jan 2013 10:43 PM PST Just how bullish is everyone? We sit at 1.3555. What will we see first, 1.3455 or 1.3655? Reason/s for choice always welcome, but no obligatory….. |
| UK to switch to a nominal GDP targeting framework; GBP to fall further – Morgan Stanley Posted: 30 Jan 2013 10:40 PM PST |
| Labor unions ratchet up pressure on Greek government Posted: 30 Jan 2013 10:24 PM PST |
| European stocks seen opening moderatey lower Posted: 30 Jan 2013 10:16 PM PST Financial bookies see FTSE, DAX and CAC 40 all down around -0.3%. |
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