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- ForexLive North American wrap: Jobs on target (and at Target)
- Monti says he is unlikely to serve as FinMin if he forms second government
- Broken uptrend coming back into play
- CFTC: Specs long euro for the first time since Aug 2011
- Fed’s Yellen’s comments focus on regulation
- Is this the week EUR specs go positive?
- Plosser, always the optimist
- AUD/JPY is the top performer of 2013 so far, big breakout on the chart
- Fed’s Plosser: US may have suffered permanent shock to growth
- 2013 will be the year of the dollar, end of ‘risk on/off’
- Aussie slowly clawing back losses
- Boy, this is depressing
- Fed’s Lacker says disappointing growth may be best ‘we should expect’
- Bullard: ‘Why are we talking about dates?’ on QE
- Friday tune time
- Schaeuble says confidence returning to markets
- Fed’s Bullard to speak on CNBC shortly
- Cable holding 1.6000, for now
- “Reason to hope” worst of euro crisis over: Schaeuble–BBG
- Triple-dip recession here we come
| ForexLive North American wrap: Jobs on target (and at Target) Posted: 04 Jan 2013 01:01 PM PST
Payrolls were close to expectations but not good enough to keep the US dollar rally going. The euro stalled ahead of 1.30 and rebounded to 1.3075. Cable was nearly identical — unable to break 1.6000 and then rebounding to 1.6075. The big winner in US trading was the Canadian dollar after another blockbuster employment report. USD/CAD fell to 0.9850 from 0.9920. Have a great weekend. |
| Monti says he is unlikely to serve as FinMin if he forms second government Posted: 04 Jan 2013 12:39 PM PST Spread the wealth, Mario…
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| Broken uptrend coming back into play Posted: 04 Jan 2013 12:34 PM PST Yesterday we saw selling in EUR/USD accelerate after the loss of trendline support at 1.3087. That line comes in at 1.3099 at present and may help contain this vicious rebound.
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| CFTC: Specs long euro for the first time since Aug 2011 Posted: 04 Jan 2013 12:33 PM PST And whaddaya know, the euro was down 1% this week. The details of weekly futures position data from the Commitments of Traders report, as of the close on Tuesday:
Not much to report overall because no one makes big, fresh bets at year end. |
| Fed’s Yellen’s comments focus on regulation Posted: 04 Jan 2013 12:31 PM PST A bunch of jibberish about disclosure on swaps and regulatory frameworks. I’ll spare you the details. |
| Is this the week EUR specs go positive? Posted: 04 Jan 2013 12:25 PM PST One of the reasons the euro has fallen so easily this week may be that all the shorts had already covered.
The CFTC release schedule says weekly positioning data will be released today (in a few minutes) but with holidays you can never be sure. |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2013 12:14 PM PST In one breath he says US growth may be permanently impaired, in the next he forecasts 3% growth in 2013 and 2014 along with 6.8-7% unemployment at year end. He forecasts 3% growth every year around this this time. |
| AUD/JPY is the top performer of 2013 so far, big breakout on the chart Posted: 04 Jan 2013 11:48 AM PST What an amazing start to the year for yen crosses. The Australian dollar is the best performer so far in 2013 while the yen is the laggard. The weekly chart highlights the incredible move since the breakout at the end of November.
These moves are so tempting to chase but the weekly RSI is at its most extreme since 2008. Eventually, this pair will make it all the way to 104 but the interim volatility will be harsh. |
| Fed’s Plosser: US may have suffered permanent shock to growth Posted: 04 Jan 2013 11:08 AM PST
Japan certainly has and, in many ways, the Japanese economy was in better ways than the US. |
| 2013 will be the year of the dollar, end of ‘risk on/off’ Posted: 04 Jan 2013 10:59 AM PST The US dollar will stop trading like a proxy for risk in 2013 and will improve with economic data, according to several analysts in this story from the FT.
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| Aussie slowly clawing back losses Posted: 04 Jan 2013 10:47 AM PST Risk trades are doing a bit better after Bullard indicated the printing will continue until the jobs market improves. The Australian dollar has crossed into positive territory at 1.0468 after falling as low as 1.0395 in Europe. The move has been slow and steady, which bodes well. |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2013 10:44 AM PST At the present pace, it will take another 12 year to return to pre-recession employment levels. |
| Fed’s Lacker says disappointing growth may be best ‘we should expect’ Posted: 04 Jan 2013 10:27 AM PST
Lacker is the biggest hawk at the FOMC and he’s saying the same things he always says. |
| Bullard: ‘Why are we talking about dates?’ on QE Posted: 04 Jan 2013 10:06 AM PST
The Fed wants to focus on economic objectives tied to QE and Bullard has done an amazing job with his headline comment but it begs the question: Why were the FOMC minutes were focused on dates? |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2013 09:55 AM PST
On Friday’s I usually stick to the rock ‘n roll here but it’s been a good week for the USD and stock market bulls and I need something a bit heavier to warm me up because it is cold outside. |
| Schaeuble says confidence returning to markets Posted: 04 Jan 2013 09:36 AM PST
Spanish 10-year yields are down to a relatively healthy and certainly sustainable 5% but are struggling to break below.
Speculative bond buyers have made an absolute killing in the last 6 months. |
| Fed’s Bullard to speak on CNBC shortly Posted: 04 Jan 2013 09:13 AM PST St. Louis Fed President Bullard will be on CNBC at 1 p.m ET (1800 GMT). It will be the first comments from anyone at the Fed since yesterday’s FOMC minutes. He could help clarify expectations about removing or tapering QE at year end. Bullard tends to swing to the hawkish side which would boost the dollar but he’s unpredictable. |
| Posted: 04 Jan 2013 08:52 AM PST The moves today are all about the big figures; EUR/USD is holding 1.30 and cable 1.60. I’m cautious about betting on those levels to continue holding because the bounces have been tepid. A look at the daily cable chart shows why.
I have highlighted the huge reversal that has come on high volume in the new year. Today, the 100-day and 55-day moving averages also broke. What’s more is that the spike high was at a major triple top that I highlighted on Wednesday. Strong bids remain ahead of 1.6000 with stops below. Afterwards there is some support and bids in the 1.5960/50 range and the 200-dma at 1.5902. |
| “Reason to hope” worst of euro crisis over: Schaeuble–BBG Posted: 04 Jan 2013 08:49 AM PST
EUR/USD a bit firmer after the “reason for hope” comment but holding below sell orders at 1.3070. |
| Triple-dip recession here we come Posted: 04 Jan 2013 08:49 AM PST |
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